kosmo16 wrote:The "Jailor meta" can be countered by evils.
First of all, one of the Mafia members have to visit Jailor N1 to deny confirmation of 5/9 people D2 (e.g. double Spy, double TP, Jailor). This can be done in each game, even if you have 2 Blackmailers, just send a Blackmailer.
There are 3 roles which are great counter to this strategy:
Arsonist
Consort
Witch
Arsonist can just kill Jailor N2 without any repercussions.
Consort and Witch can just deny execution. With Consort, the Mafia can just hard commit to mislynch D2 and Jailor won't be able to punish them. With parity D3 evils usually win. There are other factors like which NK and which TSs are in the game. Mayor, Transporter and Retributionist may cause some troubles.
Google wrote:if arsonist kills jailor n2, it loses all edge it has
witch is a good point though
still, confirmed jailor.
kosmo16 wrote:Google wrote:if arsonist kills jailor n2, it loses all edge it has
witch is a good point though
still, confirmed jailor.
Consort is the easiest counter. To made a play as the Witch is a little bit harder.
I haven't tried this strategy to douse Jailor N1 and ignite N2, but if you can keep parity then you should have a chance for winning the game.
wozearly wrote:kosmo16 wrote:The "Jailor meta" can be countered by evils.
First of all, one of the Mafia members have to visit Jailor N1 to deny confirmation of 5/9 people D2 (e.g. double Spy, double TP, Jailor). This can be done in each game, even if you have 2 Blackmailers, just send a Blackmailer.
There are 3 roles which are great counter to this strategy:
Arsonist
Consort
Witch
Arsonist can just kill Jailor N2 without any repercussions.
Consort and Witch can just deny execution. With Consort, the Mafia can just hard commit to mislynch D2 and Jailor won't be able to punish them. With parity D3 evils usually win. There are other factors like which NK and which TSs are in the game. Mayor, Transporter and Retributionist may cause some troubles.
Evils can attempt to counter, but this involves them taking a reasonably high risk as counters typically involve repeat-visiting the Jailor, or visiting the Jailor on N1 when the rolelist is unknown.
The Lookout is the central supporting role to the Jailor meta, and will statistically be there in 50% of games. The Jailor meta makes LO next to impossible to fake claim; the odds of the Mafia correctly predicting the N1 visitors are very small, and if there are two competing LO wills the Jailor can generally follow-up with whispers to confirm which is legitimate. The Lookout massively increases the risk of the counters you suggest.
Arsonist
Being a N1 visitor, the Arsonist is forced to claim Lookout, Spy, Escort or TP. When the Arsonist ignites and kills the Jailor N2, they will be outed by the Lookout as someone who DID NOT visit on N2.
Claiming LO or TP-not-on-jailor are both incredibly dodgy, unless the Jailor or confirmed LO happened to instruct you to be on someone else D2 (which is just blind luck) and this can be evidenced.
Claiming Escort is only viable if there is an Escort in play (or a Consort who did an N1 visit to Jailor) and the Jailor confirms in their will they were roleblocked. However, a real Escort will cc and Arso will struggle to hold an Escort claim beyond D3. It would also reveal Arso to the Consort, if a Consort is being relied on.
Claiming Spy leaves you open to cc from an actual Spy. Arso lacks the info to effectively fake a Spy will, so any real Spies and, crucially, all Mafia members will know the identity of the Arso.
All of the above are death sentences to the Arsonist.
Arsonist can only safely counter the Jailor meta in situations where there is no Lookout; otherwise they're really just killing themselves to give the Mafia a better chance. That's a huge risk for the Arsonist to take - the only reason they do is that the Arsonist winrate is so low that the benefits of having a Jailor-free run on the 50% of times they get away with it is marginally in their interests.
Witch
Witch can lock down the Jailor, but in Lookout games will be forced to claim Lookout, Spy, Escort or TP. Town will also know for certain that one of the Jailor's visitors must be the Witch.
Claiming LO is impractical - the real LO and actual visitors will rip the claim apart.
Claiming Escort is only possible if there is an Escort/Consort, and unless the Mafia or NK immediately kill the Lookout, that claim will be wrecked on D3.
Claiming Spy is possible only if there are no real Spies. The slight advantage is that the Mafia will recognise who the Witch is with this route. The disadvantage is that a competent LO/Jailor will probably ask you to stop bugging the Jailor to prove you're not the Witch - again, requiring an immediate Lookout kill to protect you.
Claiming TP is a possibility. With the Witch's defence, they could get away with marking themselves as a potential target to the Mafia, at cost of wasting a night kill.
The Witch is only available in 1/3 games, and by focusing heavily on the Jailor to prevent executions, has to sacrifice their ability to disrupt the Town in other ways that may be more effective (Jailors rarely execute every night).
Consort
Consort can lock down the Jailor, but in Lookout games will be forced to claim Lookout, Spy, Escort or TP. In Spy games, Town will know for certain that one of the Jailor's visitors was Mafia; likely a Consort, Framer or Forger.
Claiming LO - good luck.
Claiming Escort - death sentence in a Spy game, but otherwise will be a solid claim. However, the usual warnings of Consorts ideally not claiming Escort apply; any obviously wrecking roleblocks will reveal you openly as Mafia.
Claiming TP/Spy - both good options initially, but once the Jailor has established a Consort is roleblocking them it's likely the LO/Jailor will try to mix up visitors to the Jailor to identify the Consort. Unless the LO is killed immediately, it's likely your claim will be exposed.
The Consort is only available in about 1/4 to 1/5 games.
Actually fixing the Jailor meta
The Jailor meta can most easily be solved via changes to the Lookout, such as limiting the number of visitors they can identify by name (e.g. only receiving the names of 2 visitors, irrespective of how many visitors there were). This would allow any RM visit to disrupt the flow of information going to the LO and introduce the risk of two LOs having legitimately different wills for the same target, reducing LO confirmability and improving fake LO claims.
Google wrote:kosmo16 wrote:Google wrote:if arsonist kills jailor n2, it loses all edge it has
witch is a good point though
still, confirmed jailor.
Consort is the easiest counter. To made a play as the Witch is a little bit harder.
I haven't tried this strategy to douse Jailor N1 and ignite N2, but if you can keep parity then you should have a chance for winning the game.
still, youve lost a douse and there is a confirmed arsonist.
Google wrote:they don't, but they not there is definitely an arsonist and not, say, an afk sk
kosmo16 wrote:Google wrote:they don't, but they not there is definitely an arsonist and not, say, an afk sk
I can assure you that when there is no kill N1/N2, 100% of Town suspects exsistance of Arsonist.
Google wrote:kosmo16 wrote:Google wrote:they don't, but they not there is definitely an arsonist and not, say, an afk sk
I can assure you that when there is no kill N1/N2, 100% of Town suspects exsistance of Arsonist.
you still lose a douse, and suspecting an arsonist is much better than a confirmed arsonist.
kosmo16 wrote:Google wrote:kosmo16 wrote:Google wrote:they don't, but they not there is definitely an arsonist and not, say, an afk sk
I can assure you that when there is no kill N1/N2, 100% of Town suspects exsistance of Arsonist.
you still lose a douse, and suspecting an arsonist is much better than a confirmed arsonist.
Last time I won as Arsonist when I ignited Jailor N2. Second ignite was on 2 Mafia members for the win with Executioner.
kosmo16 wrote:So I claim nothing D3 and Town doesn't have majority to lynch me. The main idea behind the strat is to have 3+ Town members dead without any dead evils after N2. Town is not able to do anything.
wozearly wrote:Firstly, it places a lot of pressure on the meta-disrupting role for D2, when they're most at risk of being forced to claim an indefensible role. As described in my post, it's generally not in the interests of the NK or NE to do this on behalf of the Mafia, with the arguable exception of Arsonist.
wozearly wrote:Secondly, it requires that Mafia and NK between them secure an absolute minimum of 3 Town kills in 2 nights, with no losses from the scum side. That's a pretty high threshold to cross, and almost certainly requires a successful NE play or Mafia-led mislynch on D2; arguably the hardest day to force a mislynch against an experienced Town who would prefer to VFR at that early stage.
wozearly wrote:Thirdly, it requires that Town have no 'rescuing' roles active on D3. Escort, Vigilante, Retri and Mayor can all blow this strategy apart, as they can allow Town to block the Mafia without needing voting majority. TP + Jailor would also be able to hold Town in the game provided the Jailor executes one of the Mafia N3 (even with blind guesswork, they'll achieve this 50% of the time). Transporter and Veteran could also be pitfalls if the Mafia is unlucky with their target.
wozearly wrote:Fourthly, it requires the NK to side with the Mafia in the voting D3, rather than to side with the Town. Lumping the NK in with 'scum' collectively is a common mistake to make, but in practice the NK has limited incentive to go along with this; it comes with a huge risk of handing Mafia control of the game, it identifies them as non-Town to the Town, and also means the Mafia can narrow down the identity of the NK to (at best) one of two players. If the NE is known, the NK openly reveals themselves to the Mafia. Generally speaking, it would be a better play for the NK to side with Town at that point and then try to ensure they kill a separate Town target from the Mafia, leaving them in a pseudo-kingmaker situation again the following day with regard to voting control, and leaving Mafia uncertain as to who they are.
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