VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Aliens Win

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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby TheDebil » Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:46 am

MichaelgRook wrote:
TheDebil wrote:
MichaelgRook wrote:what makes chubby mafia over alien

it makes more sense for mafia to be hit after their buddy die rather than alien

thats fair but also any half decent mafia could hide any panic they might have

id argue chubby is the type to not give a shit to try at all
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby TheDebil » Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:47 am

TheDebil wrote:
AlephNull wrote:Mafia needs the nightkills and there's enough obvious non-Mafia players for Aliens to targets so the possibility of a kill getting blocked for us is zero.

And at the end of the day they're still a scum player that needs to be eliminated.

you are mixing up the abilities of mafia and aliens.
mafia rbs and aliens kill
idk if rb is forced but if it is that just gives us free utility with no drawback

i checked and mafia can just not rb forever, there really is no need to anymore unless they wanna help us
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby AlephNull » Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:51 am

I think that if we can ascertain a player as the last Mafia or are at least mostly confident about it it's infinitely better to attempt a high probability lynch on scum when we have --or we should have at least-- enough information to work with.

Meanwhile Alien hunting is more subjective and nebulous, and the lynchpool becomes much larger because we have no associations to work with. We're much more likely to hit town, or to be split between targets, and even in the BCS we still don't get rid of the Nightkill.

TheDebil wrote:
AlephNull wrote:Mafia needs the nightkills and there's enough obvious non-Mafia players for Aliens to targets so the possibility of a kill getting blocked for us is zero.

And at the end of the day they're still a scum player that needs to be eliminated.

you are mixing up the abilities of mafia and aliens.
mafia rbs and aliens kill
idk if rb is forced but if it is that just gives us free utility with no drawback


Let me rephrase.
You said "all they can do is be a potential nightkill or rb an alien".
I'm saying that Aliens have enough players that are obviously not-Mafia to kill at night. So it's guaranteed that the nightkill will hit a town player.
And, Mafia would benefit from town being killed quicker, so they would not attempt to roleblock at all in case they block the kill. So it's guaranteed the rb will not hit an alien.
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby TheDebil » Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:53 am

doesnt have any mention of crimson at all, yet "would have supported lynch". crimson and over isnt mentioned throughout the game.
died after a mafia got lynched which is telling considering how much effort chubby is willing to give to the game
wouldnt expect if chubby posted like once and peaced off for the rest of a day
id also like some semblence of actual scumread on me like the one on htg, where there is an actual dislike on some posts
only mention of me that isnt a vote is telling aleph "well he can still be alien"
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby TheDebil » Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:54 am

yeah i get your point after thinking
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby AlephNull » Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:56 am

Let me put this at another angle.

Personally I have none/very few people that I could affirm with any certainty are/are not alien.
With Mafia I've narrowed it down to four. So I'm just going through the route that takes me less effort. Usually the simpler solutions are the better ones.
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 1

Postby TheDebil » Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:57 am

ChubbyMooshroom9 wrote:
AlephNull wrote:
TheDebil wrote:
heytheregirl17 wrote:list of reasons I don't townread people

1. Chemist1422
- Haven't seen enough out of him yet, once he shows his colors this is the most likely to change. If he stays consistent with current tone I'd wagon it by d3.
2. heytheregirl17
- I scare myself more than anyone else
3. FMLSheWas12
- meme claimed mafia as a player of high enough caliber to actually be mafia
4. Phone0Ix
- Sentiment is townie. Phone jumping in largely logically is not.
5. UzayAltay
- Uzay is expressing himself exceedingly well. I'm concerned he may have agenda.
6. TheDebil
- Debil as a player has one of the most consistent metas on site. His alignment can be a coin flip regardless of whether he appears to be solving or not.
7. Crimson97
- lowposter
8. dota2reporter
- general weirdness, I can expand on this later
9. yurkin
- lowposter
10. MichaelgRook
- lowposter
11. 0verki11
- entrance felt forced and almost too generic
13. ScorpioDiAngelo
- Scorpio as either alignment likes to have thread impact, not displayed here.
14. AlephNull
- interactions bad, and vig claim bad
15. ChubbyMushroom9
- it's chubbymOOshroom9 but I'm too lazy to fix the iso

Aight Poly is my towncore

pretty nuch everyone is "this could be scum" or "i havent seen enough". you are practically nullreading everyone and making a fuss about it.
i feel over alrph and dota are your three legit scumreadsbut you called everyonr scum just so you could have enough impact


This is a good post, Actually.

jsin that there's 3p and this doesn;t mean he's town

also i think this is tmi
i can be 3p, but how does this post make me non-mafia to chubby?
3p and mafia in this game work pretty much the same, sicne this is multiball.
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby AlephNull » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:05 pm

Huh. Didn't even notice that.
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby AlephNull » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:15 pm

Thought a little bit more about it and I can see it as not being TMI. He wasn't necessarily saying you could still be 3p, just that 3p was in the game, and thus what I was interpreting as TownDebil VS ScumHTG could be Mafia/Alien or Alien/Mafia.
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby TheDebil » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:16 pm

AlephNull wrote:Thought a little bit more about it and I can see it as not being TMI. He wasn't necessarily saying you could still be 3p, just that 3p was in the game, and thus what I was interpreting as TownDebil VS ScumHTG could be Mafia/Alien or Alien/Mafia.

fair enough
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby TheDebil » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:20 pm

however at the same saying that there is 3p also says that i can still be 3p since he assumes you think my post is towny
so while i agree i also dont agree
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby UzayAltay » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:26 pm

Okay
Here is The thing
Objectively
What is The chance of Mafia winning here ? Very low , They should stay alive from Alien Nightkills and lynches , If Aliens eleminated should win A nightless Game , If Dont should be kingmaded by town .
Here is The thing , I am inviting Mafia to hardclaim at offer kingmaded to If town stays as kingmaker . We wont lynch You , Because Like it is pointless when We can lynch You later . Aliens wont kill You Because Than they just waste A kill .
If You Dont claim today , You Will never Ever be kingmaded . Make your choice .
Also Dont Ever think " I can claim If I am pushed " . You Will be lynched .
46-46 Spoiler: Town Games(27-32)

NFM50,NFM51,NFM52,14D,14E, NFM54 ,14H (AF), 14G, NFM 55, NFM 56, 15C, NFM 57, NFM 58,15F,SFM45,16B, VFM36, 16D , SFM 47 , VFM38, NFM62 , 16G ,VFM 39, EpisodeXVII, 17B , 17C , VFM44 , 17D , 17F,18C,18D,18E,VFM55,VFM57,SFM64, 19C,VFM58,VFM59 ,19D,VFM60,SFM66,SFM67,VFM64,SFM70,VFM69,XX7,XX9, VFM71,VFM72, VFM73, VFM74, 21A,VFM75,VFM76,XX14,VFM77,XX16,VFM78,VFM79

Scum Games (19-14)

NFM 48 , NFM 49 , TFM 65 ,TFM 66 , Episode XV ,TFM68 ,VFM 34, NFM61 , VFM42 , SFM53, VFM43,17E,VFM49,SFM60,CFM19,VFM54, EpisodeXIX, SFM63, 19E, 19F ,VFM62 ,VFM63,XX3,VFM66,XX5,VFM67,XX6,SFM72,XX8,VFM70,XX10,SFM76,SFM80
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby UzayAltay » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:28 pm

UzayAltay wrote:Okay
Here is The thing
Objectively
What is The chance of Mafia winning here ? Very low , They should stay alive from Alien Nightkills and lynches , If Aliens eleminated should win A nightless Game , If Dont should be kingmaded by town .
Here is The thing , I am inviting Mafia to hardclaim at offer kingmaded to If town stays as kingmaker . We wont lynch You , Because Like it is pointless when We can lynch You later . Aliens wont kill You Because Than they just waste A kill .
If You Dont claim today , You Will never Ever be kingmaded . Make your choice .
Also Dont Ever think " I can claim If I am pushed " . You Will be lynched .

PS - If You think that This Will lower your chances of winning , read episode 18 , or ask sb experienced about it ( Except Jalandh )
46-46 Spoiler: Town Games(27-32)

NFM50,NFM51,NFM52,14D,14E, NFM54 ,14H (AF), 14G, NFM 55, NFM 56, 15C, NFM 57, NFM 58,15F,SFM45,16B, VFM36, 16D , SFM 47 , VFM38, NFM62 , 16G ,VFM 39, EpisodeXVII, 17B , 17C , VFM44 , 17D , 17F,18C,18D,18E,VFM55,VFM57,SFM64, 19C,VFM58,VFM59 ,19D,VFM60,SFM66,SFM67,VFM64,SFM70,VFM69,XX7,XX9, VFM71,VFM72, VFM73, VFM74, 21A,VFM75,VFM76,XX14,VFM77,XX16,VFM78,VFM79

Scum Games (19-14)

NFM 48 , NFM 49 , TFM 65 ,TFM 66 , Episode XV ,TFM68 ,VFM 34, NFM61 , VFM42 , SFM53, VFM43,17E,VFM49,SFM60,CFM19,VFM54, EpisodeXIX, SFM63, 19E, 19F ,VFM62 ,VFM63,XX3,VFM66,XX5,VFM67,XX6,SFM72,XX8,VFM70,XX10,SFM76,SFM80
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby TheDebil » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:31 pm

i can get behind it
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby TheDebil » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:31 pm

18 was an arso win tho
am i missing a joke
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby UzayAltay » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:35 pm

MichaelgRook wrote:poly getting it from the vig makes more sense than fml being shot by vig

I was thinking over was gonna be alien, now am disappointed

-Speculating about Nightkills
After Nightkills are claimed
:Logic:
TheDebil wrote:18 was an arso win tho
am i missing a joke

Eragon won with claiming sth between Day 2 and Day 4
And Mafia is solo now , they are More 3p Than Aliens atp
46-46 Spoiler: Town Games(27-32)

NFM50,NFM51,NFM52,14D,14E, NFM54 ,14H (AF), 14G, NFM 55, NFM 56, 15C, NFM 57, NFM 58,15F,SFM45,16B, VFM36, 16D , SFM 47 , VFM38, NFM62 , 16G ,VFM 39, EpisodeXVII, 17B , 17C , VFM44 , 17D , 17F,18C,18D,18E,VFM55,VFM57,SFM64, 19C,VFM58,VFM59 ,19D,VFM60,SFM66,SFM67,VFM64,SFM70,VFM69,XX7,XX9, VFM71,VFM72, VFM73, VFM74, 21A,VFM75,VFM76,XX14,VFM77,XX16,VFM78,VFM79

Scum Games (19-14)

NFM 48 , NFM 49 , TFM 65 ,TFM 66 , Episode XV ,TFM68 ,VFM 34, NFM61 , VFM42 , SFM53, VFM43,17E,VFM49,SFM60,CFM19,VFM54, EpisodeXIX, SFM63, 19E, 19F ,VFM62 ,VFM63,XX3,VFM66,XX5,VFM67,XX6,SFM72,XX8,VFM70,XX10,SFM76,SFM80
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby TheDebil » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:37 pm

ah i see, you are telling them that it is a viable way to win to urge them to claim
but i agree, unless there was heavy bussing involved mafia is screwed, and even then we are also hunting 3p so it wouldnt even be worth it
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby UzayAltay » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:38 pm

AlephNull wrote:I'm the Vigilante. But I allowed HTG to borrow my gun last night. Now I have learned the importance of taking down the second amendment.

TheDebil wrote:fml kill makes me and yurkin most sus
this does match up with dota also having yurkin as sr but id say this would be too obvious


?

LoL
46-46 Spoiler: Town Games(27-32)

NFM50,NFM51,NFM52,14D,14E, NFM54 ,14H (AF), 14G, NFM 55, NFM 56, 15C, NFM 57, NFM 58,15F,SFM45,16B, VFM36, 16D , SFM 47 , VFM38, NFM62 , 16G ,VFM 39, EpisodeXVII, 17B , 17C , VFM44 , 17D , 17F,18C,18D,18E,VFM55,VFM57,SFM64, 19C,VFM58,VFM59 ,19D,VFM60,SFM66,SFM67,VFM64,SFM70,VFM69,XX7,XX9, VFM71,VFM72, VFM73, VFM74, 21A,VFM75,VFM76,XX14,VFM77,XX16,VFM78,VFM79

Scum Games (19-14)

NFM 48 , NFM 49 , TFM 65 ,TFM 66 , Episode XV ,TFM68 ,VFM 34, NFM61 , VFM42 , SFM53, VFM43,17E,VFM49,SFM60,CFM19,VFM54, EpisodeXIX, SFM63, 19E, 19F ,VFM62 ,VFM63,XX3,VFM66,XX5,VFM67,XX6,SFM72,XX8,VFM70,XX10,SFM76,SFM80
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby UzayAltay » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:41 pm

TheDebil wrote:ah i see, you are telling them that it is a viable way to win to urge them to claim
but i agree, unless there was heavy bussing involved mafia is screwed, and even then we are also hunting 3p so it wouldnt even be worth it

There is nobody alive that pushed both over and Crimson Except You
46-46 Spoiler: Town Games(27-32)

NFM50,NFM51,NFM52,14D,14E, NFM54 ,14H (AF), 14G, NFM 55, NFM 56, 15C, NFM 57, NFM 58,15F,SFM45,16B, VFM36, 16D , SFM 47 , VFM38, NFM62 , 16G ,VFM 39, EpisodeXVII, 17B , 17C , VFM44 , 17D , 17F,18C,18D,18E,VFM55,VFM57,SFM64, 19C,VFM58,VFM59 ,19D,VFM60,SFM66,SFM67,VFM64,SFM70,VFM69,XX7,XX9, VFM71,VFM72, VFM73, VFM74, 21A,VFM75,VFM76,XX14,VFM77,XX16,VFM78,VFM79

Scum Games (19-14)

NFM 48 , NFM 49 , TFM 65 ,TFM 66 , Episode XV ,TFM68 ,VFM 34, NFM61 , VFM42 , SFM53, VFM43,17E,VFM49,SFM60,CFM19,VFM54, EpisodeXIX, SFM63, 19E, 19F ,VFM62 ,VFM63,XX3,VFM66,XX5,VFM67,XX6,SFM72,XX8,VFM70,XX10,SFM76,SFM80
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby TheDebil » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:42 pm

UzayAltay
MichaelgRook
ScorpioDiAngelo Chuunibyou
AlephNull
ChubbyMooshroom9

my immediate mafia poe is this, more inclined to vote some than others
would go in this order
chubby - chuuniby/micheal - aleph/uzay
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby UzayAltay » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:44 pm

AlephNull wrote:WIP, but Chem and Phone can both definitely be ruled out of being Mafia.

Because I believe it's better to hunt Mafia right now, my lynchpool consists of: Uzay, Debil, Michael, Chuuni. Will read a bit on their ISOs before making a choice.

I think noone here is Mafia , Except Chuuni Because I Dont remember much about them
46-46 Spoiler: Town Games(27-32)

NFM50,NFM51,NFM52,14D,14E, NFM54 ,14H (AF), 14G, NFM 55, NFM 56, 15C, NFM 57, NFM 58,15F,SFM45,16B, VFM36, 16D , SFM 47 , VFM38, NFM62 , 16G ,VFM 39, EpisodeXVII, 17B , 17C , VFM44 , 17D , 17F,18C,18D,18E,VFM55,VFM57,SFM64, 19C,VFM58,VFM59 ,19D,VFM60,SFM66,SFM67,VFM64,SFM70,VFM69,XX7,XX9, VFM71,VFM72, VFM73, VFM74, 21A,VFM75,VFM76,XX14,VFM77,XX16,VFM78,VFM79

Scum Games (19-14)

NFM 48 , NFM 49 , TFM 65 ,TFM 66 , Episode XV ,TFM68 ,VFM 34, NFM61 , VFM42 , SFM53, VFM43,17E,VFM49,SFM60,CFM19,VFM54, EpisodeXIX, SFM63, 19E, 19F ,VFM62 ,VFM63,XX3,VFM66,XX5,VFM67,XX6,SFM72,XX8,VFM70,XX10,SFM76,SFM80
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby TheDebil » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:45 pm

UzayAltay wrote:
TheDebil wrote:ah i see, you are telling them that it is a viable way to win to urge them to claim
but i agree, unless there was heavy bussing involved mafia is screwed, and even then we are also hunting 3p so it wouldnt even be worth it

There is nobody alive that pushed both over and Crimson Except You

look at me being cool, getting all 3 right would be splendid
mainly reffering to phone here, phone was pushed by crimson and voted over, but overall isnt towny by a longshot
people like chemist and yurkin are also mostly cleared from being mafia but nor from 3p
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby TheDebil » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:46 pm

UzayAltay wrote:
AlephNull wrote:WIP, but Chem and Phone can both definitely be ruled out of being Mafia.

Because I believe it's better to hunt Mafia right now, my lynchpool consists of: Uzay, Debil, Michael, Chuuni. Will read a bit on their ISOs before making a choice.

I think noone here is Mafia , Except Chuuni Because I Dont remember much about them

i think chuuni posted once and left, scorpio too
the slot is cursed
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby UzayAltay » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:56 pm

@Aleph The thing is We need to kill both Aliens and government here
Here is The thing , when Aliens died , Game became nightless
When We lynch Mafia , We gain The ability nolynching
Both lynching A Mafia and lynching An Alien have The benefit getting one step Closer to win
Lynching an Alien give us The chance to look Interactions of Aliens , too
Which lynch give us better chances Do You think ?
46-46 Spoiler: Town Games(27-32)

NFM50,NFM51,NFM52,14D,14E, NFM54 ,14H (AF), 14G, NFM 55, NFM 56, 15C, NFM 57, NFM 58,15F,SFM45,16B, VFM36, 16D , SFM 47 , VFM38, NFM62 , 16G ,VFM 39, EpisodeXVII, 17B , 17C , VFM44 , 17D , 17F,18C,18D,18E,VFM55,VFM57,SFM64, 19C,VFM58,VFM59 ,19D,VFM60,SFM66,SFM67,VFM64,SFM70,VFM69,XX7,XX9, VFM71,VFM72, VFM73, VFM74, 21A,VFM75,VFM76,XX14,VFM77,XX16,VFM78,VFM79

Scum Games (19-14)

NFM 48 , NFM 49 , TFM 65 ,TFM 66 , Episode XV ,TFM68 ,VFM 34, NFM61 , VFM42 , SFM53, VFM43,17E,VFM49,SFM60,CFM19,VFM54, EpisodeXIX, SFM63, 19E, 19F ,VFM62 ,VFM63,XX3,VFM66,XX5,VFM67,XX6,SFM72,XX8,VFM70,XX10,SFM76,SFM80
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Re: VFM58 - Area51 Anarchy - Day 3

Postby UzayAltay » Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:57 pm

Ask me anything
I am tired atm , and tomorrow is saturday , so I Will not contribute much today irl .
46-46 Spoiler: Town Games(27-32)

NFM50,NFM51,NFM52,14D,14E, NFM54 ,14H (AF), 14G, NFM 55, NFM 56, 15C, NFM 57, NFM 58,15F,SFM45,16B, VFM36, 16D , SFM 47 , VFM38, NFM62 , 16G ,VFM 39, EpisodeXVII, 17B , 17C , VFM44 , 17D , 17F,18C,18D,18E,VFM55,VFM57,SFM64, 19C,VFM58,VFM59 ,19D,VFM60,SFM66,SFM67,VFM64,SFM70,VFM69,XX7,XX9, VFM71,VFM72, VFM73, VFM74, 21A,VFM75,VFM76,XX14,VFM77,XX16,VFM78,VFM79

Scum Games (19-14)

NFM 48 , NFM 49 , TFM 65 ,TFM 66 , Episode XV ,TFM68 ,VFM 34, NFM61 , VFM42 , SFM53, VFM43,17E,VFM49,SFM60,CFM19,VFM54, EpisodeXIX, SFM63, 19E, 19F ,VFM62 ,VFM63,XX3,VFM66,XX5,VFM67,XX6,SFM72,XX8,VFM70,XX10,SFM76,SFM80
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