VFM 49: SK win #rekt

[Chemist1422]

UzayAltay - 8
tfiosforevah - 7
Rickdaily12 - 5
ProtoZigg/TheDebil - 4
Chemist1422 - 4
Qvapil - 3
Goomba - 3
ejjinami - 2
Zucker - 2
Dash - 1

Mafia equity list based upon interactions with cupcake & other things

From 0-10, 0 being least likely to be mafia, 10 being most likely, 5 being default probability of being mafia (2/10 = 0.2) with Flake, Eragon, Phone and Crimson as known Town and Cupcake as known Mafia from my PoV

[Chemist1422]

Alive:
Chemist
Tfios
Rick
Debil
Qva
Goomba
Ejji
Kreaal

Six town (one vig), one mafia, one SK

If we mislynch and misshoot we're in LyLo if the vig dies and technical LyLo if the vig lives

Vig shouldn't be claiming unless they get wagoned

[ejjinami]

Sigh, let me post a bit since I can’t sleep anyway

I’ve done some re-reading and I think I might have changed my opinion about a lot of things
[Chemist, Grumpy] (+ 99% not mafia)
[Zuck, Qvap]
[rick > Debil > tfio]

Chemist’s interactions are terrible, but I genuinely believe he wouldn’t have forgotten about dash’s slip if he were scum.
As mafia, even if he did, his teammates would have reminded him of it. (and if the slip was fake, would have noticed it and lock-towned Chem BEFORE I did it in my incredibly late catchup)
In short, chemist cannot be mafia.
SK is possible, but honestly, I think he might just be town.

And Grumpy’s interactions are great. I wasn’t so sure of it before, but I really, really doubt they would have voted cupcake the way they did if they were buddies with him.

Well being pissed does not really warrant a lynch on the person you are pissed at now does it? That's just policy lynching if I remember that right.

This ^ is also a very townie reaction.
It couldn’t have been faked because of how fast it came after the post it responded to.
So same as chemist, while them being SK is possible, I think they should just be town.

Those 2 are my top reads now.

I still think I’m TRing Zuck and Qvap, but both of them have gone down significantly.
Zuck because he’s unreasonable, has bad interactions and I can’t even bring myself to read his posts.

And I remember hard-TRing Qvap D1 because of activity and his general attitude. This TR has faded slightly, mainly because of awful interactions with cup and because of the drop in townie posting, but I still think he should be more likely town than scum.

So now, it comes down to tfio, Debil and Rick.
Frankly, I haven’t tried reading rick yet, so I’ll save my opinion for after I do that.
And I liked neither proto’s nor tfio’s posting. In tfio’s case, mainly because of interactions.

[ejjinami]

/vote tfio

[ejjinami]

fun fact, flake died just when I was about to start TRing him

[ejjinami]

oh and hi @newseth'salt

[ejjinami]

Six town (one vig), one mafia, one SK

If we mislynch and misshoot we're in LyLo if the vig dies and technical LyLo if the vig lives

Vig shouldn't be claiming unless they get wagoned

Now: 6:1:1
After a ML: 5:1:1
After N3 (2 scum kills and a mis-shot): 2:1:1

If the vig shoots town, dies and the scums don’t cross-kill, we’ll have no chance to win.
So depending on the situation we could be in lylo rn?

[ejjinami]

Hey @rick, what do you think of town!eragon’s scum-hunting?

[Kreaal]

I’ll get back to this and give proper reads when I wake up, but I’d like to point out a couple of things before I take my leave.
First off, I feel Vigilante should reveal since Mafia can’t stop their attack and they get a free kill.
Secondly, I will be going through everyone’s ISO’s including those that didn’t vote Cupcake.
Thirdly, I’ll be looking at all the dead town members and all the dead mafia members to see if I can find anything out of the ordinary.
Lastly, I’ll be ISO pointing 3 participants I find most likely to flip the last 2 remaining scum slots.

[GrumpyGoomba]

Strongly disagree on vig revealing. They get 2 more bloody free shots by not revealing. Also nice one vig.

[TheDebil]

seth stop making alts

now for me poating content should be able to when i get onto a pc
with this many scum flips i think we can do it

[Qvapil]

Guys I won't be able to be very active today but I will be here tomorrow to help solve this. Or try to, seeing as I've townread both uzay and cup this game so my reads haven't been very accurate. But uzay has had way more interactions than cupcake so I'm confident we can find the last maf from his posts. I'll pop in later to post more thoughts.

[tfiosforevah]

Okay guys, here’s a very important question

Due to the two kills n1 vs the 3 kills n2, are we thinking the vig was shut off or maf/vig hit night immune sk?

[ejjinami]

More math…

Now: 6:1:1
If we lynch scum today: 5:1

If vig doesn’t shoot:
Next day: 4:1 => 2:1 (2 lynches, 50% that vig is alive in LyLo, shooting again will either result in the game ending in a tie, or we will lose if the last scum is SK and they chose town-immunity)

If they do shoot:
3:1 (immediate MyLo,1 vig shot + 1 lynch, 75% that vig is alive in MyLo and can shoot again next night)

If we lynch mafia (and SK is alive), I think Vig should refrain from shooting.
If SK is lynched today, Vig should shoot, cuz even if we ML, there’s a 75% chance that they’ll be alive and able to shoot in MyLo.

[ejjinami]

I don’t actually know what to do in case of a town lynch, but I think the scums might want to consider helping us (especially the mafia if they think SK might have chosen mafia-immunity).

If both SK and Maf kill townies, we’ll end in 2:1:1, which would make the game INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT FOR MAF TO WIN. You’d have to shoot or lynch SK later anyway and trying to kill them off now instead of killing a townie WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR YOU TO GET RID OF THEM BEFORE YOU GET TO A 1v1 WITH THEM.
Otherwise, if they chose Maf-immunity, YOU’LL LOSE IMMEDIATELY.

@Mafia, do the math yourself if you don’t trust me, it makes sense.
And it’s prob the only chance you’ll get to cooperate with the town as mafia without gamethrowing xD

[ejjinami]

I’ll get back to this and give proper reads when I wake up, but I’d like to point out a couple of things before I take my leave.
First off, I feel Vigilante should reveal since Mafia can’t stop their attack and they get a free kill.
Secondly, I will be going through everyone’s ISO’s including those that didn’t vote Cupcake.
Thirdly, I’ll be looking at all the dead town members and all the dead mafia members to see if I can find anything out of the ordinary.
Lastly, I’ll be ISO pointing 3 participants I find most likely to flip the last 2 remaining scum slots.

Well, this might have been obvious because of zuck’s ignorant and carefree attitude anyway, but the thing about vig claiming prob doesn’t come from SK.
I don’t think they would have been likely to throw such an obvious vig-bait if they were aware of how illogical it is.

reading the dead townies’ isos might be a waste of time :/ but ok

[ejjinami]

Okay guys, here’s a very important question

Due to the two kills n1 vs the 3 kills n2, are we thinking the vig was shut off or maf/vig hit night immune sk?

SK can be a townie player, if that’s what you’re getting at. There’s nothing stopping that from happening, so you should just be aware of the possibility while getting reads.
If you have a tinfoil about anyone townie, just say it. I don’t see the point of discussing the vig-kill.
Keep it to plain SRing, if possible.

[ejjinami]

and give reads, please

[ejjinami]

@0verki11, is MoustachioMario still a backup? It’s a question of utmost importance.

[Chemist1422]

I’ll get back to this and give proper reads when I wake up, but I’d like to point out a couple of things before I take my leave.
First off, I feel Vigilante should reveal since Mafia can’t stop their attack and they get a free kill.
Secondly, I will be going through everyone’s ISO’s including those that didn’t vote Cupcake.
Thirdly, I’ll be looking at all the dead town members and all the dead mafia members to see if I can find anything out of the ordinary.
Lastly, I’ll be ISO pointing 3 participants I find most likely to flip the last 2 remaining scum slots.

Well, this might have been obvious because of zuck’s ignorant and carefree attitude anyway, but the thing about vig claiming prob doesn’t come from SK.
I don’t think they would have been likely to throw such an obvious vig-bait if they were aware of how illogical it is.

reading the dead townies’ isos might be a waste of time :/ but ok

zuck and kreaal are the same person

[GrumpyGoomba]

Okay guys, here’s a very important question

Due to the two kills n1 vs the 3 kills n2, are we thinking the vig was shut off or maf/vig hit night immune sk?

I don't see the importance of this information, except for finding out how many bullets the vig has left. It's better for it to be left unknown for now to make it harder for the scum, unless the vig claims.

[Chemist1422]

It's quite likely that the vig just holstered n1 anyway

[Kreaal]

Alright so here we go.


My first culprit is Chemist

Dead Town Interactions:
Crimson:

Yeah I haven't liked Crimson's defense

It's not flaily per se, just like they're only invested in defending themselves and not solving

Well yeah, it's a defense. What do you think about my points?

I have been trying to figure out who of the people pushing me is scum. Chemist seems very quick to dismiss any argument i make instead of telling me why they're bad. I honestly feel like they were just looking for an excuse to vote me.

Dead Mafia Interactions:
Uzay

Chemist you're seriously not helping your case

I'm trying, okay?

You're saying I faked the slip knowingly and actually slipped because I knew it would be fake, but I explained what actually happened. If you're not refuting that you can't push me based on the slip.

Wait What This is completely wrong .
If You are Okay with Flake TR ing You with your slip
But not aggreeing with Dash SR ing You with your flip
Than This is LAMIST
Which is FoS
Due You not keeping your original opinion ( Slip was NAI )
Happily take The cred from Flake
But refusing SRs
Actually This deserves A vote
But I Will Wait for your explanation

Additional Thoughts:
This is most probable to be the Serial Killer.



Next my second Culprit is GrumpyGoomba

Dead Town Interactions:

Dash2

I am most definitely not liking this response. My eyes are on you dash.

You literally said this one thing then nothing else and call it a reaction test?

That bit about you softing cit and discussing the plan also looks forced and awkward. I'm not taking that

Anyways I will leave my vote on my strongest scumread for now.
/Vote Cupcake

Goomba and cupcake are not s/s

Heavy doubt

Okay I have finally caught up with the thread. Did a cop check on me succeed? If not then don't claim. See people think that I am the sk. If I was the sk then

nice rolefish. We literally established yesterday SK can choose to be cop immune

Mafia Interaction:
Uzay

I hope that through some magical luck the cop check is on me and it succeeds and I am hopefully cleared.

Even without SK may be immune to This , directing cop to one target , or want to checked by cop is bad .

Anyways I will leave my vote on my strongest scumread for now.
/Vote Cupcake

Goomba and cupcake are not s/s

Tend to agree, but I Will prefer to say "probably not M/m"

Additional Thoughts: This is Probably the last Mafia


My last Culprit is TheDebil or Ejji

Not as strong with this one and couldn’t find anything that was off to me but definitely 2 Participants to consider.
However I’m leaning more Ejji.

Ejji and Cupcake Interactions.

Hmmmm

Let's look at more ISOs.

just read the damn game, please.

I did.

And everybody said everything I was going to say.

Yass

Ejji is suspicious for distancing

Furthermore, /Vote GrumpyGoomba

[Chemist1422]

This is weak analysis because it doesn’t explain anything

[Kreaal]

This is weak analysis because it doesn’t explain anything

So Interactions towards others doesn’t explain anything?
Well how about I make things a bit more understandable for you then.
At the start of Day 1 Cupcake voted for Uzay.
Later I noticed that GrumpyGoomba casually votes for Cupcake and I also noticed Cupcake calling Ejji scummy at last Minute.
Furthermore I definitely can tell the last Mafia is in GG/Ejji.
If you disagree with me Chemist then please give me your thoughts on the matter.