Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Wins)

[ryanyb]

If you're one of the many people in this thread right now saying "you should have always lynched the arso" then you didn't read the game.

[Eragon1329]

If they lynched me

Town would have had to lynch in a 1 scum two town scenario


With a mislynch being a confirmed loss

So basically a 33% chance of winning


While my plan
Had a 66% chance of town winning

Not regarding the possibility of jalandh being mafia

Becuase of googles check
M

[Eragon1329]

I’m not saying I played amazing and that I should have won


but lynching me was not the correct town play there

[HarperReed]

I have no idea why they didn't lynch the person carrying KP in LyLo

That's like the first rule of not being terrible

Ryan is technically correct, in every scenario where Google gave the correct result as everyone was right to assume the plan on motion all but guaranteed a town win unless it was Juck. Lynching the arson earlier was a waste of time with one player doused only.

However, what would have changed the game is watch not blocking Eragon from dousing non. It's very likely HiM would have been lynched instead and Jaland exposed

[Eragon1329]

Indeed

The lynch on non sealed the town’s loss

[Rickdaily12]

I’m not saying I played amazing and that I should have won


but lynching me was not the correct town play there

I disagree with both of you. Turn the 8v3v2 into just a straight forward 8v4 going into the night.

Witch and Escort can fuck with the night kill (note: the former did exactly this even after Eragon lived), and in this offshoot reality, Lookout gets another night to prove themselves with more night results.

I'm not going to reward the decision. Risking the mislynch over taking the confirmed kill almost always results in a blowback for the Town. I've seen it happen plenty of times. I understand why the choice was made, but the end result becomes this more often because it's generally more tactically unsound for the Town. It does usually fuck over the Mafia more, but that's often how it goes.

Really, if 5 Town die in a row, and the worst you look at is "well, we might wake up tomorrow at 7v4 with a few PRs", that's a straight forward issue with the setup. I can virtually just rest my case there.

[HarperReed]

Eragon won in what is the epitome of a "stars aligned" scenario. Not to take credit from Eragon as Harper has said they completely destroyed the social game.

Town didn't play well this is true, but they didn't play wrong. That much Harper would attest to. The plan they used was efficient and in every other scenario than what transpired would have worked

[Rickdaily12]

Eragon won in what is the epitome of a "stars aligned" scenario. Not to take credit from Eragon as Harper has said they completely destroyed the social game.

Town didn't play well this is true, but they didn't play wrong. That much Harper would attest to. The plan they used was efficient and in every other scenario than what transpired would have worked

Shall I refer to you every plan that has gone horribly wrong where a Town member has said exactly this? There are over a dozen buried in the huge stack of games here, bare minimum.

I'm just trying to emphasize that the pattern I've seen: if Town is in dire enough straits that they gamble on lynching anyone but the outted NK, this has resulted in a large number of the NK wins on this site.

[Eragon1329]

I’m not saying I played amazing and that I should have won


but lynching me was not the correct town play there

I disagree with both of you. Turn the 8v3v2 into just a straight forward 8v4 going into the night.

Witch and Escort can fuck with the night kill (note: the former did exactly this even after Eragon lived), and in this offshoot reality, Lookout gets another night to prove themselves with more night results.

I'm not going to reward the decision. Risking the mislynch over taking the confirmed kill almost always results in a blowback for the Town. I've seen it happen plenty of times. I understand why the choice was made, but the end result becomes this more often because it's generally more tactically unsound for the Town. It does usually fuck over the Mafia more, but that's often how it goes.

Really, if 5 Town die in a row, and the worst you look at is "well, we might wake up tomorrow at 7v4 with a few PRs", that's a straight forward issue with the setup. I can virtually just rest my case there.

play it out

I get lynched

8v4

PKR dies

7v4

0verki11 gets lynched and the nightkill dies

5 v 4

literally the same fucking position
but they decide to Lynch ONE SINGLE PERSON OUT OF 3
instead of being able to CHOOSE TWO PEOPLE OUT OF 3

[Eragon1329]

Eragon won in what is the epitome of a "stars aligned" scenario. Not to take credit from Eragon as Harper has said they completely destroyed the social game.

Town didn't play well this is true, but they didn't play wrong. That much Harper would attest to. The plan they used was efficient and in every other scenario than what transpired would have worked

Shall I refer to you every plan that has gone horribly wrong where a Town member has said exactly this? There are over a dozen buried in the huge stack of games here, bare minimum.

I'm just trying to emphasize that the pattern I've seen: if Town is in dire enough straits that they gamble on lynching anyone but the outted NK, this has resulted in a large number of the NK wins on this site.

I assume you are talking about the bolded?

It was literally a guaranteed town win
unless Jalandh, who was confirmed town
and jucktropy, who was pretty obvious town

were scum
both unlikely scenarios

lets just put it this way

Jalandh
Was
Never
Getting
Lynched

no one could possibly have believed jalandh was scum

so its no ones fault that the plan messed up

because it wasn't in our power to know

[Eragon1329]

Eragon won in what is the epitome of a "stars aligned" scenario. Not to take credit from Eragon as Harper has said they completely destroyed the social game.

Town didn't play well this is true, but they didn't play wrong. That much Harper would attest to. The plan they used was efficient and in every other scenario than what transpired would have worked

oh it doesn't take credit from me

I completely agree

I got lucky

like ive said

I didnt expect to win this

[GrumpyGoomba]

O shit the arso won. Guess NK helping town has it's own merits.

[0verki11]

Every day we descend further into madness

You guys literally let an outed third party win the game

How bad can you be for that to happen

[Eragon1329]

Like honestly

I was confident that jalandh was town

otherwise this might have turned out differently

I was trying to confirm a win between us arso/town

but it wasn't in the cards

[Eragon1329]

Every day we descend further into madness

You guys literally let an outed third party win the game

How bad can you be for that to happen

thats literally not the issue

the issue is that google

confirmed jalandh as town
through a mistake

and locked the scum between Juck/kmenx/Ryan

where the most ev play was to keep me alive and ignite the two scummiest

[HarperReed]

Like honestly

I was confident that jalandh was town

otherwise this might have turned out differently

I was trying to confirm a win between us arso/town

but it wasn't in the cards

Exactly, similar to Detownator the plan was ultimately a "mafia loses" mentality that was supposed to largely favor town. However one mistake changed that unknown to the living players.

[ICECLIMBERS]

I'm just trying to emphasize that the pattern I've seen: if Town is in dire enough straits that they gamble on lynching anyone but the outted NK, this has resulted in a large number of the NK wins on this site.

PREACH :clap:

[Crimson97]

If any mafia member voted for the standard, i hope my massive fuckup shows why vanilla was clearly better.

[EvilDeanius0]

Fun fact: The only two times I have rolled Bodyguard, I killed a TK on the same night my target was attacked by scum.

[Descender]

If any mafia member voted for the standard, i hope my massive fuckup shows why vanilla was clearly better.

same but with town

[watchme1]

This game was honestly a blast to play. I have a massive post to make later so stay tuned for that

[Descender]

This game was honestly a blast to play. I have a massive post to make later so stay tuned for that

pls no

[0verki11]

also Not lynching HIM was disgusting and I have no idea why it didnt click in everyones head that Jalandh as town would be pushing HIM before Non

[watchme1]

Spoiler: Alrighty first up this was my first game in like 3-4 years so I apologise for how rusty I played this game. This game was the most fun I've had since like 4E cause I feel like I played a major contributor to the alignment I was in. Playing as escort reminded of the time I played consort back then but this time, it was to block evil from prevailing.

My playstyle I hoped to make was to play passive, making points about what other people said, maybe make a tinfoil or two but never actually lead the town into lynches etc. Guess that backfired completely when I pretty much lead the system wagon with my tinfoil on rbing him and no douses... Day 3 come and people hardclaiming power roles left right center, and ryanyb demanding to know who the other 'escort' was pretty much had to reveal at that point. That was the point I felt like I contributed the best in, organizing the role list as to who's who etc. Google's mishaps of failing to investigate n2 put my suspicions of him being scum even further cause no one should forget a night action whether it be your inactive or not. Espcially in an episode game where every night result counts.

Now I'm not going to lie, I played each night out after n2 pretty poorly. The N2 block on non was based off PKR's tinfoil, after 0ver flipped cit, I should have either blocked non or one of the other quiet cit claimers (e.g. Hereisme). Also PKR's tin foil on D2 would becomes realised to be true by the end of D3 when 0ver would be lynched... Instead I blocked the arsonist in the worry that witch would force ignite from him on N3. N4 comes around and idk what I was thinking, I didn't trust the arsonist at all to douse ryanyb and kept thinking, if he ignited, town would lose as at the end of the day it was 6v3v1 (I believe that was what it was at the time) When mafia gets a kill and arson ignites, it would be 4v3v1 leading to town's loss almost guaranteed. There was also no way I would be able to predict which mafia member would perform the kill. Day 5 comes around and I'm thinking we have this in the bag. D4 Google claimed hereisme was lookout/bmer/vet so we knew that non would be godfather after crimson flips witch, the last mafia being one of the 3 cit (we so thought). Our mistake here was not lynching hereisme first so we could confirm hereisme being bmer. Instead we lynch non instead. At the time I thought there'd be no difference but now I realise, lynching hereisme would prove Jal is Bmer. N5 comes around and I'm thinking that between Hereisme and the last mafia, who are they more likely to perform the kill on? So my logic here was , "oh why would they risk sending hereisme to perform the kill against an escort when the escort doesn't even know for sure who last mafia is?" so out of the 3 citizen claims, I believed ryanyb to be the scummiest thinking he was the last maf, hence why I chose to roleblock him n5. Turns out hereisme chose to perform the kill anyway *sigh*.

In the end it was just unlucky for town. Town killed itself literally in 3 days, 3 mislynches, 2 townies turning on each other. Soul had no reason to shoot harper, EvilD choosing to defend harper was a decent choice tbh (he seemed rather pro town in all honesty) but it turns out both mafia AND vig decided to shoot harper and evild was only able to defend against one which happened to be the vig *sigh*.

So many what ifs this game. If crimson didn't fuck up night 1, if Soul didn't shoot and just waited, if I roleblocked non/hereisme on respective nights, if Google had results or read the CORRECT results, if Jal didnt' play it out perfectly, this game could have gone in totally different direction. Also if people keep saying the best idea would be to lynch Arsonist day 3, you might be correct, it should be 100 times better to lynch confirmed scum over unconfirmed. But the 0ver lynch confirms several things. If 0ver was witch like Crimson said, Crimson would be investigator and non most likely cit. IF 0ver flipped cit, it would give town the information needed to lynch the following days.

Overall I look forward to playing more FM games in the future, and hopefully I don't perform as many throws as last time

Also my personal MVPs and other awards below
Spoiler: Most unlucky Townies - EvilD (guarding against vig), tfios (d1 bandwagon and apparently had her phone taken thus not being able to defend herself)
MVP Townies - PKR (probably the best tinfoil made), no one else tbh played "supremely" if you get what I mean
WTF Townies - Soul, Google, unlucky you could say but some of the decisions made by you two were questionable at the very least
Unlucky Mafia - HTG, getting witched targetted by your godfather n1 is just what else can I say, unlucky...
MVP Mafia - Jal, played it out so well, he hid himself into the RT slot very well, even convincing town to vote for non instead of hereisme to buy time, but honestly that was partly Google's fault.
MVP overall - Eragon, fought out each and every day even with the odds heavily stacked against his favor, he somehow managed to get a win. Up until he tried to claim a town power role, he looked very pro-town to me.

One last thing - If this was vanilla, I guarantee that I would not have contributed as much to reads and stuff etc. as I am piss poor at them, I'm more suited to standard role list where you use POE to determine who's who.

[Chemist1422]

I claim Most Valuable Spectator :wowee: