Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Wins)

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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby ryanyb » Wed May 15, 2019 10:27 am

Jaland played well with what he had
He got unlucky
It happens.
Not every game comes down to wack odds like this one did.

For the people that don’t like coin toss resolutions like this, pick vanilla instead of standard next time.
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Crimson97 » Wed May 15, 2019 10:31 am

Yay, congrats Eragon.
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Jalandh » Wed May 15, 2019 10:32 am

ryanyb wrote:Also let me be clear here: eragon wasn’t playing against his wincon I was watching that very closely
He was playing the odds, we all thought he had a 1/3 shot at the win and so did he
But turns out it was 100% which was known to no one but jaland


I actually personally disagree with this, esspecally when you go to the dead chat and he admits he thought you were the scum.

only way he wins is if it was a 1v1v1

and his pov, that was you as the scum.

If he wasnt going against his wincon by purposefully dousing who he thought was the last mafia, he would have doused Juck, and ignited, bringing the game to the 1v1v1, again in his pov.

Instead he doused you to ensure that if his read on you was correct, mafia would lose leaving him in a 2v1 situation vs town
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Crimson97 » Wed May 15, 2019 10:32 am

I am sorry for N1 mafia. Jalandh's play was really good.
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby ryanyb » Wed May 15, 2019 10:33 am

Ok, so consider the situation where he douses Juck.

How does the game change?
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Jalandh » Wed May 15, 2019 10:34 am

ryanyb wrote:Ok, so consider the situation where he douses Juck.

How does the game change?


In his point of view?

Game goes to 1v1v1 where mafia still has a chance to win, town autoloses, and he has that 1/3 chance of winning.
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Descender » Wed May 15, 2019 10:35 am

tbh this is why I picked vanilla
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Jalandh » Wed May 15, 2019 10:35 am

Jalandh wrote:
ryanyb wrote:Ok, so consider the situation where he douses Juck.

How does the game change?


In his point of view?

Game goes to 1v1v1 where mafia still has a chance to win, town autoloses, and he has that 1/3 chance of winning.


Unless he was lying in the dead chat post game, he said you were his scumread

Dousing and iginiting you over juck means he was aiming for a 2v1 where you kill me and its left with Juck/Watt and himself
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby ryanyb » Wed May 15, 2019 10:39 am

Jalandh wrote:
ryanyb wrote:Ok, so consider the situation where he douses Juck.

How does the game change?


In his point of view?

Game goes to 1v1v1 where mafia still has a chance to win, town autoloses, and he has that 1/3 chance of winning.


Not from his PoV
From the objective game pov.
You lose the 1v1v1 regardless, this was pretty established in thread.

If he doused juck nothing would've changed.

Also there was always that though in the back of his mind that he really wanted to burn me with me being mafia I can pretty much assure you that.
Idk I'm pretty sure he tossed a coin on who to douse.
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby ryanyb » Wed May 15, 2019 10:39 am

*Correction:

Back in the mind where he knew I was town and was just wanting to live that fantasy of burning me while im mafia.
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B)

Postby Crimson97 » Wed May 15, 2019 10:40 am

Jalandh wrote:Crimson, wtf btw

What happened to sending watchme1 into watt? That's the entire reason we killed pkr

I said i was gonna sedn PKR into Watt. Re-read the message.
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby ryanyb » Wed May 15, 2019 10:40 am

At the end of the day he did win the game :v
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Jalandh » Wed May 15, 2019 10:41 am

ryanyb wrote:
Jalandh wrote:
ryanyb wrote:Ok, so consider the situation where he douses Juck.

How does the game change?


In his point of view?

Game goes to 1v1v1 where mafia still has a chance to win, town autoloses, and he has that 1/3 chance of winning.


Not from his PoV
From the objective game pov.
You lose the 1v1v1 regardless, this was pretty established in thread.

If he doused juck nothing would've changed.

Also there was always that though in the back of his mind that he really wanted to burn me with me being mafia I can pretty much assure you that.
Idk I'm pretty sure he tossed a coin on who to douse.


Ryan

Eragon said he thought you were the mafia when he doused you

That means instead of aiming for the 1v1v1

he was aiming for the 2v1

p-edit: Yeah i went back and reread it. I combined the two posts where you mentioned controlling the escort and sending someone into the vet, that is my bad
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Jalandh » Wed May 15, 2019 10:41 am

ryanyb wrote:At the end of the day he did win the game :v


Because both of his reads were wrong, not because of his actions
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Jalandh » Wed May 15, 2019 10:41 am

I just need to leave, sorry
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Chemist1422 » Wed May 15, 2019 10:42 am

Jalandh wrote:
ryanyb wrote:
Jalandh wrote:
ryanyb wrote:Ok, so consider the situation where he douses Juck.

How does the game change?


In his point of view?

Game goes to 1v1v1 where mafia still has a chance to win, town autoloses, and he has that 1/3 chance of winning.


Not from his PoV
From the objective game pov.
You lose the 1v1v1 regardless, this was pretty established in thread.

If he doused juck nothing would've changed.

Also there was always that though in the back of his mind that he really wanted to burn me with me being mafia I can pretty much assure you that.
Idk I'm pretty sure he tossed a coin on who to douse.


Ryan

Eragon said he thought you were the mafia when he doused you

That means instead of aiming for the 1v1v1

he was aiming for the 2v1

p-edit: Yeah i went back and reread it. I combined the two posts where you mentioned controlling the escort and sending someone into the vet, that is my bad

Later on I’ll post our DMs so y’all can see where his head was at
Jalandh wrote:I just need to leave, sorry

Nah mate, stick around as long as ya want. There’s no rush.
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby TheWabbit » Wed May 15, 2019 11:12 am

pog

kudos to eragon
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby tfiosforevah » Wed May 15, 2019 11:20 am

Eragon, you did well

Congrats and gg! :D
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby UzayAltay » Wed May 15, 2019 12:31 pm

Why town didnt lynch Arso at 4v3 ?

Congratulations to Eragon and Crimson.
Eragon , You stole A game town shouldn't allow.
Google , Please pay More attention to your role and other stuff .
Town not hanging either Non or Crimson for days is ????
Crimson was A bit unlucky , Unless he thought Non is Mafia when controlling .
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Kmenx » Wed May 15, 2019 1:00 pm

Jalandh wrote:
ryanyb wrote:At the end of the day he did win the game :v


Because both of his reads were wrong, not because of his actions

But the problem was Eragon was kinda forced to douse ryan otherwise town would spite lynch him so his reads didn't matter when dousing
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Rickdaily12 » Wed May 15, 2019 1:01 pm

Couple things I just wanted to hindsight:

1. In Episode 3, the last Arsonist win in an Episode, we did use the Draw resolution phase exactly like in ToS where Arsonist has 3 days and 3 nights to kill the Veteran and vice versa or neither win. It's probably more fair than saying "I'll wait 100 days and nights and rand a number between 1-100". If you're going to resolve it in the other way, then you should outwardly tell Veterans that you're just going to endgame them even though saving alerts for a standoff should be a play.

2. Eragon really should have been lynched the day he claimed. You never lynch "likely scum" over "total scum" when faced with the choice. Again, people really should care more about mislynching more. It leads to farces like this.

3. 14v4v2 where Arso can rand is a disgusting setup and needs to burn. Arso won because Town mishandled themselves pretty badly, but the setup is skewed so much in favor of the Town that the only real reason Town had for ignoring Eragon in the first place was because he was ridiculously weak to be considered a true threat. Maybe if you pressure the Town by giving them stronger roles and fewer people during Episodes, you'll remind them to kill conf scum more.
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Chemist1422 » Wed May 15, 2019 1:02 pm

Rickdaily12 wrote:Couple things I just wanted to hindsight:

1. In Episode 3, the last Arsonist win in an Episode, we did use the Draw resolution phase exactly like in ToS where Arsonist has 3 days and 3 nights to kill the Veteran and vice versa or neither win. It's probably more fair than saying "I'll wait 100 days and nights and rand a number between 1-100". If you're going to resolve it in the other way, then you should outwardly tell Veterans that you're just going to endgame them even though saving alerts for a standoff should be a play.

2. Eragon really should have been lynched the day he claimed. You never lynch "likely scum" over "total scum" when faced with the choice. Again, people really should care more about mislynching more. It leads to farces like this.

3. 14v4v2 where Arso can rand is a disgusting setup and needs to burn. Arso won because Town mishandled themselves pretty badly, but the setup is skewed so much in favor of the Town that the only real reason Town had for ignoring Eragon in the first place was because he was ridiculously weak to be considered a true threat. Maybe if you pressure the Town by giving them stronger roles and fewer people during Episodes, you'll remind them to kill conf scum more.

1. Hard agree
2. Also agree
3. Hey, it's actually 13v4v2. And stuff like this shows why it's not terrible for the neutrals.
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Rickdaily12 » Wed May 15, 2019 1:09 pm

Oh, thought I saw 20 people in the role list. It still isn't any better.

It IS bad for Neutrals, though, because if the Town really took the time to consider the risks of letting Eragon live over time, the result would have been Eragon being lynched. It was a clear blunder that people need to stop doing. Just because they don't win with the Mafia, doesn't mean that letting them live is a good idea. For that to happen, the circumstances need to be extreme. A 13v4v2 doesn't qualify.

IMO the setup is missing two Neutrals and a couple more PRs toward the Town. Because, again- if Scum had more numbers, Eragon certainly would likely to have been lynched. It just goes to show that a greater than 67% Town majority doesn't seem to help them out in the end as much as encourages them to make even dumber choices about lynching.

Soon "we can mislynch a few times for info" becomes "holy shit we're losing LyLo by a lot". It's happening over and over.
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby Chemist1422 » Wed May 15, 2019 1:21 pm

I have no idea why they didn't lynch the person carrying KP in LyLo

That's like the first rule of not being terrible
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Re: Episode XVIII | Game Over (Final Grade: B - Arsonist Win

Postby ryanyb » Wed May 15, 2019 1:34 pm

ryanyb wrote:Also what I don’t think some spectators realize is that the arso had the game solved, their best shot at winning was 33% with the information provided. The fact jaland was mafia which was logically impossible meant that we were flipping a coin on town vs arso win.

Town was in a position where we couldn’t ml once and the arso ignite would resolve one town and one mafia 66% of the time and two town 33% of the time.

The arso was fine. This wasn’t a “how’d you let the arso win” because eragon is as surprised as we are. Eragon had no grand scheme, he didn’t lie and he didn’t go astray from the plan.

It’s that we had no way to know jaland was scum
When I tried to bring it up 1) watt wasn’t here who apparently also wanted jaland pushed so that’s unlucky ig and 2) it was impossible for jaland to be scum because of google’s claim.
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