VFM43 | No Hope (Plus One) | Game Over (Doomed To Suffer)

[ejjinami]

Also just a reminder in case people didn't bother reading the OP - this is a light game, so you can only make 50 posts per in-game day with the exception of the last hour, in which you can post as much as you want.

We had FML's 35-post limit and none seem to have been close to the limit

I don't think it would be much of a difference

True

/vote Ejjinami

N0 red

Since I'm always SRing them not matter what -
/vote Chemist

Hello

We're going to leave cop cover. How do we do that? It's simple. Every night that the cop is still alive and unouted, you claim to have gotten a green check on one person that night. Try to make it someone you would actually check as cop in that situation.

Benefits:
- Helps hide the real cop while getting their peeks out
- Allows SHC

Disadvantages:
- Helps wolves PoE the cop more effectively - Less so with doctors in the setup

/vote hereisme

This vote's about as much of a joke as theirs, but their post along with it felt lazy.

Ew

/vote james
You're just "ew"ing at everyone who posted, why do you dislike those posts

[ejjinami]

Claiming goon. My buddies are lilgangsta and Eragon1329

Why didn't you mention me? :(
makes me sad

Hey gamers I’m at a school dance

xd
Ok, i want to joke after all
I'm really tempted to throw one here, even though I know I shouldn't
Stupid game rules...

[UzayAltay]

Spoiler:

Hello

We're going to leave cop cover. How do we do that? It's simple. Every night that the cop is still alive and unouted, you claim to have gotten a green check on one person that night. Try to make it someone you would actually check as cop in that situation.

Benefits:
- Helps hide the real cop while getting their peeks out
- Allows SHC

Disadvantages:
- Helps wolves PoE the cop more effectively - Less so with doctors in the setup

/vote hereisme

This vote's about as much of a joke as theirs, but their post along with it felt lazy.

As I know , This is called as "hypoclaiming " , Lets look at The PoE range First ,
Set-up : 10v3
Day 1 : 1 v , ml
Night 1: Check + kill , 8v3 , 2v
Day 2: ml , 2v
Night 2: Check + kill , 6v3 , 3v
Day 3 : Ml , 5v3 ,
Night 3 : check + kill , 4v3 , 4v

Given that at Day 4, Mafia would claim cop and leave us in A choice between win and lose , The best time for cop revealing seems Day 3. ( I Obviously assumed no successful protection , All Green checks etc . ) . Especially If Mafia couldnt kill any Doctor utp ( until that point ) , cop would stay alive one More night regardless . Mafia would try to CC cop again probably , but The situation seems best regardless .
Now , Lets look when can Mafia PoE Cop In Chem's plan :
10v3
-ML + kill = 8v3 at EON1
The possibility of one person greening Mafia = 3/10
The amount of person who can Green Mafia : 7 ( cop wouldnt Green Mafia )
7.3/10 = 2,1 =~2 person Will Green Mafia
Day 2: 8v3 , Maf know 2 person isnt Mafia , assuming ml on A person Mafia Dont know cop
ML : 7v3 , NK 6v3 , 2 known as not cop from Mafia
Day 3: 6v3
Chance of Everyone greening A Mafia member : 3/8
Amount of people : 5
5.3/8 = 15/8 =~ 2
So , The only bad statistic seems that Mafia had 1/5 chance to kill cop at night 2 , and it is Actually The thing We should discuss , I think it is not A huge risk , so I am Okay with hypo .

Okay in a recent game I played I left cop cover on both of the mafia

But even then, we gain information. 3 people left cover on one person and they weren't killed, so we figured them or their claimed peek had to be mafia, and both were

It is Actually Why I am Okay with This , even % 20 chance happened , We had still chance to solve , at no hypo , We can lose without much resistance .

Whatever we decide to do for cop, onto the doctors

At the end of the day, we should(as a town) correlate a “doc 1” and “doc 2” pool, to make 100% sure docs don’t cross-heal

Who the docs heal in that “pool” is up to them, for WIFOM purposes, but they must heal in that pool

How docs would know If they are doc 1 or doc 2 ?

#3089205 +1

I think We can find A way for make The risk minimum at docs cross-heal , but need to think on that .

#3089376 : Please ...

[Phone0Ix]

Solution for doc1/2 problem. It's not perfect but still something to start with. Only problem with it is me, because I'm number 7.

If the Doc is within number 1-6, they heal someone from 8-13.
If the Doc is within number 8-13, they heal someone from 1-6.

Now docs got more chance of spread healing, and if they are in the same pool they never heal each other. And if we add me, number 7 to it, we got one bigger pool, but I guess we could add me to the 1-6.

Opinions on this? Also I think hypoing is a good plan. And Eragon is likely town I think. No opinions on others yet. Chem's action could come from both town and scum I think.

[ejjinami]

I hardclaim sheriff.

We don’t even need to hypo, whichever doc has me in their pool heals me.

Oh god

If exa claimed as a "joke", I'm prob gonna heavily consider lynching him
If not, one of the doctors should claim
The cop has to be healed once and I'm not really tempted to count on WIFOM
And a doc dying is better than the cop

We can start from here

Claiming was a terrible idea btw

[ejjinami]

Any doc plans without a revealed doc will only make cross-healing more likely to happen

What if the 2 docs are in the same group? How do you know if they aren't?
No one knows, so just stop it

And the cop is revealed rn, so I really suggest not taking the risk

[ejjinami]

Solution for doc1/2 problem. It's not perfect but still something to start with. Only problem with it is me, because I'm number 7.

If the Doc is within number 1-6, they heal someone from 8-13.
If the Doc is within number 8-13, they heal someone from 1-6.

Now docs got more chance of spread healing, and if they are in the same pool they never heal each other. And if we add me, number 7 to it, we got one bigger pool, but I guess we could add me to the 1-6.

Opinions on this? Also I think hypoing is a good plan. And Eragon is likely town I think. No opinions on others yet. Chem's action could come from both town and scum I think.

I kinda liked the post though
Mostly because of the tone rather than reasoning, but still

[UzayAltay]

I hardclaim sheriff.

We don’t even need to hypo, whichever doc has me in their pool heals me.

Oh god

If exa claimed as a "joke", I'm prob gonna heavily consider lynching him
If not, one of the doctors should claim
The cop has to be healed once and I'm not really tempted to count on WIFOM
And a doc dying is better than the cop

We can start from here

Claiming was a terrible idea btw

Have You read The OP ?
The Doctors have a Macho modifier, so they can't protect each other.
If a Doctor dies, the Sheriff will gain a Macho modifier.
A.k.a. Mafia can just kill doc First , Than The cop . Your plan only helps us If Cop Finds Red , but If he cant , Than 1 V check wont help us much , he Will killed at The moment Last doc Dies .
The thing which is Coming my mind is A bit WIFOMy , but If it success , We can keep cop alive More Than Day 2, If it fails , cop can die night 1 but I believe we should risk it .
A) Doctors WIFOM
If cop Dies night 1 , rip The plan .
If not , and no kill happens , We can agree on that The one on cop ( with saying assuming cop is healed ) staying on cop , other is WIFOMing off-cop .
What is your opinion on that ?

Any doc plans without a revealed doc will only make cross-healing more likely to happen

What if the 2 docs are in the same group? How do you know if they aren't?
No one knows, so just stop it

And the cop is revealed rn, so I really suggest not taking the risk

It is Why I am Looking for A plan which Dont Like " X, y , Z are Pool 1 , other is Pool 2 . "
Actually I was , Because after claim I stopped it .

[Phone0Ix]

Any doc plans without a revealed doc will only make cross-healing more likely to happen

What if the 2 docs are in the same group? How do you know if they aren't?
No one knows, so just stop it

And the cop is revealed rn, so I really suggest not taking the risk

If the Docs are in the same group they could be unlucky to indeed heal the same person but it's still better because they don't heal each other

[James]

You're just "ew"ing at everyone who posted, why do you dislike those posts

I called those 3 posts gross because they're rvs votes and their comments are off-putting

Solution for doc1/2 problem. It's not perfect but still something to start with. Only problem with it is me, because I'm number 7.

If the Doc is within number 1-6, they heal someone from 8-13.
If the Doc is within number 8-13, they heal someone from 1-6.

Now docs got more chance of spread healing, and if they are in the same pool they never heal each other. And if we add me, number 7 to it, we got one bigger pool, but I guess we could add me to the 1-6.

Opinions on this? Also I think hypoing is a good plan. And Eragon is likely town I think. No opinions on others yet. Chem's action could come from both town and scum I think.

Ehhhhh, if both are in the same pool then their pool most likely won't be protected

I hardclaim sheriff.

We don’t even need to hypo, whichever doc has me in their pool heals me.

Oh god

If exa claimed as a "joke", I'm prob gonna heavily consider lynching him
If not, one of the doctors should claim
The cop has to be healed once and I'm not really tempted to count on WIFOM
And a doc dying is better than the cop

We can start from here

Claiming was a terrible idea btw

/vote ejjinami
I hate everything about this post

[Phone0Ix]

How is RvS bad? It helps starting a conversation

[James]

How is RvS bad? It helps starting a conversation

Because it's always off-putting to me

[TheWabbit]

Solution for doc1/2 problem. It's not perfect but still something to start with. Only problem with it is me, because I'm number 7.

If the Doc is within number 1-6, they heal someone from 8-13.
If the Doc is within number 8-13, they heal someone from 1-6.

Now docs got more chance of spread healing, and if they are in the same pool they never heal each other. And if we add me, number 7 to it, we got one bigger pool, but I guess we could add me to the 1-6.

Opinions on this? Also I think hypoing is a good plan. And Eragon is likely town I think. No opinions on others yet. Chem's action could come from both town and scum I think.

things like these guarantees a macho cop sooner than N3

[TheWabbit]

anyways sure why not
being a paranoid ass does nothing

[ejjinami]

If a Doctor dies, the Sheriff will gain a Macho modifier.

fuck
Nvm then, thx for saying that xd
It really doesn't make sense in that case

I don't care about setup spec besides that, I'll just comply.
Dividing players into into 2 groups does have some merits and demerits, but tbh now that I know there isn't an easy way to win this, I kinda lost the motivation to think about it
Uh
Well, w/e, just pretend I didn't say anything since the beginning

[ejjinami]

You're just "ew"ing at everyone who posted, why do you dislike those posts

I called those 3 posts gross because they're rvs votes and their comments are off-putting

I hardclaim sheriff.

We don’t even need to hypo, whichever doc has me in their pool heals me.

Oh god

If exa claimed as a "joke", I'm prob gonna heavily consider lynching him
If not, one of the doctors should claim
The cop has to be healed once and I'm not really tempted to count on WIFOM
And a doc dying is better than the cop

We can start from here

Claiming was a terrible idea btw

/vote ejjinami
I hate everything about this post

How are they off putting?

And cool, elaborate

How is RvS bad? It helps starting a conversation

Because it's always off-putting to me

it doesn't make the comments scum-motivated
Do you think they're scummy?
and does that mean you think setup spec is more townie than RvS votes?

[lilgangsta]

This setup is so town sided it’s disgusting

Watch as town loses anyway, haha.

What do we use instead? I don't have a problem with readlists.

When I mean readlists I'm talking about
{idiot}
{idiot2nd}
{idiot3rd}
{idiot4th}
{idiot5th}
Also non-trusted-users don't have access to spoiler

Ah, alright. I'm not the most fond of those either, as i prefer to explain my reads rather than trowing down a few names and making others guess as to why the names are placed in that order.
Sucks that i can't use spoilers though. Looks like you will have to endure painful walls of text.

I hardclaim sheriff.

We don’t even need to hypo, whichever doc has me in their pool heals me.

Spicy.

Solution for doc1/2 problem. It's not perfect but still something to start with. Only problem with it is me, because I'm number 7.

If the Doc is within number 1-6, they heal someone from 8-13.
If the Doc is within number 8-13, they heal someone from 1-6.

Now docs got more chance of spread healing, and if they are in the same pool they never heal each other. And if we add me, number 7 to it, we got one bigger pool, but I guess we could add me to the 1-6.

Opinions on this? Also I think hypoing is a good plan. And Eragon is likely town I think. No opinions on others yet. Chem's action could come from both town and scum I think.

That doesn't fix the problem though.

You're just "ew"ing at everyone who posted, why do you dislike those posts

I called those 3 posts gross because they're rvs votes and their comments are off-putting

RVS posts are usually jokes and aren't considered serious. Your comments on those posts are more off putting in comparison, but they also sound like jokes to me, so i don't pay much attention to them.

How is RvS bad? It helps starting a conversation

Because it's always off-putting to me

It doesn't make it bad, does it?

[Phone0Ix]

/vote James

[hereisme]

Catch-up Post
Spoiler:

uhhh they wouldn’t heal scum becuase they’d heal the towny person in their group

If the towny person is scum, they’d probably be healed anyways so...

Okay, so say you split the list in two:
(1 group of 6) + (1 group of 7)
If both Doctors end up in the first pool, there is WCS of 3 scum in there with them.
Plus the possibility that they both try to heal the same single town within the pool.
Or trying to heal each other, which is as useless as the former.
This plan feels like it has too many possible flaws.

Current reads:
Town Lean - Chemist
NULL - everyone else

Townread was easily given. Noted.

I wouldn't call it a town read, exactly, since I'm still unsure.
More of just a lean. He's been productive thus far.
Intro felt townie to me and has also started scum hunt already.

This setup is so town sided it’s disgusting

This comment feels kind of disgusting to me.
I can't exactly place why though.
Almost like it came from frustrated scum.

Okay well Chemist is being very productive in this game. Either town or some next level powerwolfing.

Prob not SvS
The post is a big exaggeration, but it feels like a relatively honest attempt to scumhunt, so I think I like it
Besides, scum tend to be more hesitant in giving strong TRs, so I guess the post is good

I agree it probably isn't SvS, but I'm not sure it's TvT either.
Scorpio's post felt like shade on Chemist IMO, then Scorpio forgot who they'd even talked about.
Thought they mentioned Eragon rather than Chem.
Scorpio never really said they TR either person.
Now we haven't heard from Scorpio since, so I'd like to see their new opinions.

Hey gamers I’m at a school dance

xd
Ok, i want to joke after all
I'm really tempted to throw one here, even though I know I shouldn't
Stupid game rules...

There's no rule stating you can't joke, just that you can only post 50 times in game day.
So technically, joke all you want, just make your post useful besides that.
Don't waste thread time with fluffy shit.
*which is kinda what you did right there...*

I liked this post from Uzay.
Tone felt townie to me and his thought process made sense from town POV.
+1 slight town lean

Solution for doc1/2 problem. It's not perfect but still something to start with. Only problem with it is me, because I'm number 7.

If the Doc is within number 1-6, they heal someone from 8-13.
If the Doc is within number 8-13, they heal someone from 1-6.

Now docs got more chance of spread healing, and if they are in the same pool they never heal each other. And if we add me, number 7 to it, we got one bigger pool, but I guess we could add me to the 1-6.

Opinions on this? Also I think hypoing is a good plan. And Eragon is likely town I think. No opinions on others yet. Chem's action could come from both town and scum I think.

See my above opinions about plan for Eragon.
Because I truly think this could be a plan that backfires.
We can't be sure of how the pools are split.

I hardclaim sheriff.

We don’t even need to hypo, whichever doc has me in their pool heals me.

Oh god

If exa claimed as a "joke", I'm prob gonna heavily consider lynching him
If not, one of the doctors should claim
The cop has to be healed once and I'm not really tempted to count on WIFOM
And a doc dying is better than the cop

We can start from here

Claiming was a terrible idea btw

NO DOCTOR SHOULD CLAIM - Not unless they were the lynch. No Doc claims.
No matter if NotEx Cop claim was legit or a joke, he shouldn't be the lynch today.
If he's lying, real Cop should check there first.
And I think we should do hypo still even if NotEx doesn't feel this way.

If the Docs are in the same group they could be unlucky to indeed heal the same person but it's still better because they don't heal each other

This is incorrect logic.
We don't want the Docs to be healing each other OR the same person.
Because if that happens, no heal goes through.
Seriously, wouldn't it be safer for the whole situation to be WIFOM?
Final thoughts about catching up -
It doesn't matter if NotEx is lying about Cop claim.
If they are, real Cop will sort that out.
I believe we should still hypo claim as it's in our best interest.

[ZSSDistortion]

Current Vote Count

Player	Votes	Voters
	#	Votes Until Majority

[hereisme]

Can the voters that aren't RVS explain their scum read?
I'm assuming the not joke votes are the following - James, ejjinami, Phone

Also forgot to post my quick reads bracket so here ya go:
Town lean {Chemist, Uzay}
Slighter lean {Eragon, Wabbit, lilgansta}
NULL - {Most people still}
Very slightly scum {Scorpio, ejjinami}

Still gotta see content from a lot of players.
Kind of getting scum vibes from a few others but gonna wait.
As far as a vote for today, I have no fucking clue yet.
But I would like to hear from the serious voters with their reasoning.

[Phone0Ix]

My vote on James indeed isn't a joke vote

[Phone0Ix]

Feels like trying to block conversation

[hereisme]

My vote on James indeed isn't a joke vote

Feels like trying to block conversation

I guess I didn't really see him as blocking convo.
He pretty much only said RVS is always off putting to him.
TBH I agree with that statement, because I've never even been a meme phase fan.

James also made a serious (slightly OMGUS) vote on ejjinami.
So we'll have to see if they're willing to participate in discussion by explaining it.

It's kinda pinging me as scummy that your explanation feels forced and weak.

[Phone0Ix]

My vote on James indeed isn't a joke vote

Feels like trying to block conversation

I guess I didn't really see him as blocking convo.
He pretty much only said RVS is always off putting to him.
TBH I agree with that statement, because I've never even been a meme phase fan.

James also made a serious (slightly OMGUS) vote on ejjinami.
So we'll have to see if they're willing to participate in discussion by explaining it.

It's kinda pinging me as scummy that your explanation feels forced and weak.

From experience I know how worse my reason to scumread someone is (aslong as there is a plausible reason), how higher the chance is it's right so I'm starting to follow my weak reasons