This is being updated over time. Some information may be added or changed at a later date, but for the most part this will be the finished product.

Please note that this Elo Rework is not official and is therefore not guaranteed to be implemented into the game.

It should also be noted that the entire rework does not have to be used - this is mainly to highlight the main issues surrounding the current Elo system, and appropriate methods to fix some of these main issues.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

The current Elo system, put bluntly, isn't the greatest it could be. The main issue is that it mainly rewards grinding games heavily as opposed to a high win percentage, which is more indicative of skill. So, I believe that the player win percentage should have a larger impact than it currently does. The current Elo system also does not give bigger Elo differences for a lower amount of games played outside of Placement games, and the Elo change difference between Placement games and other games at current is arguably too large. The K-Factor for those in Diamond and above tiers is also too small when compared to K-Factors in other tiers.

As such, I propose a new Elo system fixing "the grind". This new system would use win percentage as it's primary variable, and uses a "K-factor". This K-factor gives slightly higher Elo changes with a lower amount of games played, and lower Elo changes with more games played. The K-factor also gives less prominent Elo changes if the player has a very high Elo (namely if the player is in Expert Tier, see Section 5 for more information).

The starting Elo will be set at 1200, and you will gain or lose an amount of Elo from 1200 based on how well you perform as compared to the rest of the population. In general, if you have an Elo below 1200 you are performing worse than average, and if you have an Elo above 1200 you are performing better than average.

You will also be rewarded for having more games with factions of a lower mean population win rate (for example, Neutral Killing) and punished for having more games with factions of a higher mean population win rate (for example, Town).

The difference between Team Elo (minus yourself) and Opposing Elo will also be considered if you are Town or Mafia, but not Neutral Evil or Neutral Killing (refer to Section 6, note 3. to see why this is the case).

Ranked Placement will require 20 games played rather than the current 10 to be given an Elo score, because it is a larger sample giving a more accurate Elo score than if the player were to only play 10 games.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

If Player Wins: Gain = K * ((1-A%) + (OE - TE)/(2500) + (A% - F%)/(3A%))

If Player Loses: Loss = K * ((-A%) + (OE - TE)/(2500) + (A% - F%)/(3A%))

NOTE: Elo gain/loss is capped at ±2, meaning it is IMPOSSIBLE to lose Elo if you win a game, and it is IMPOSSIBLE to gain Elo if you lose a game. See the first two points below for more information.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

• If you win, Elo gain is restricted such that Gain ≥ +2. If a win were to result in an Elo change below +2 (e.g +1), the Elo change would be automatically changed to +2.

• If you lose, Elo loss is restricted such that Loss ≤ -2. If a loss were to result in an Elo change above -2 (e.g -1), the Elo change would be automatically changed to -2.

For all points below using "x", let "x" be the lifetime amount of games the player has played on Ranked from the last Hard Reset:

• "K" is the K-factor, a constant which changes depending on which of the four following circumstances is true (NOTE that 2400 Elo & Significance Level (7) is Expert Tier; see Section 5 for more information):

- If your Elo is 2400 & Significance Level (7) or higher, K = 18.

- If x > 200 and your Elo is less than 2400 and/or less than Significance Level (7), K = 25.

- If 50 ≥ x ≥ 200 and your Elo is less than 2400 and/or less than Significance Level (7), K = 30.

- If x < 50 and your Elo is less than 2400 and/or less than Significance Level (7), K = 40.

• "A%" (Average Tier Win Percentage) refers to the average win rate of players in your current Tier, give or take one tier, for all games they have played in those Tiers. For example, if a player is in Platinum and the average win rate of all players in Gold, Platinum and Diamond Tiers for all games all players have been in Gold, Platinum and Diamond for is 60%, A% = 0.6.

• "F%" (Average Faction Win Percentage) refers to the average win rate, of any given faction, of players in your current Tier, give or take one tier, for all games they have played in those Tiers. For example, if the player is Bronze and the average Mafia win rate of all players in Bronze and Silver Tiers for all games all players have been in Bronze and Silver for is 40%, F% = 0.4.

• "TE" (for Team) refers to the average Elo score of your faction, excluding you (refer to Section 6, point 3. to see why you are excluded).

• "OE" (for Opposition) refers to the average Elo score of the opposing factions.

- If you are Town, opposing factions include: Mafia, Neutral Killing, Neutral Evil.

- If you are Mafia, opposing factions include: Town, Neutral Killing.

• If you were Neutral Evil or Neutral Killing in the game, OE - TE = 0. If you were Town or Mafia, OE - TE is unchanged. Refer to Section 6, point 3. to see why this is the case.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

A player is Silver, has 100 games played (K = 30) and wins a game as Town.

The Opposing Factions have an Elo of 1350, and Town (excluding you) has an Elo of 1200. In other words, OE = 1350 and TE = 1200.

Suppose A% = 0.5 and F% = 0.6 (See Section 2 for an explanation of A% and F%).

Using the Elo gain formula, K * ((1-A%) + (OE - TE)/(2500) + (A% - F%)/(3A%)), we have:

Gain = 30 * ((1-0.5) + (1350-1200)/(2500) + (0.5 - 0.6)/(3*0.5)) = +14.8 Elo change.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

A player is Platinum, has 250 games played (K = 25) and loses a game as Town.

The Opposing Factions have an Elo of 1800, and Town (excluding you) has an Elo of 2100. In other words, OE = 1800 and TE = 2100.

Suppose A% = 0.55 and F% = 0.65 (See Section 2 for an explanation of A% and F%).

Using the Elo loss formula, K * ((-A%) + (OE - TE)/(2500) + (A% - F%)/(3A%)), we have:

Loss = 25 * ((-0.55) + (1800-2100)/(2500) + (0.55 - 0.65)/(3*0.55)) = -18.3 Elo change.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

A player is Expert, has 300 games played (K = 18) and wins a game as Mafia

The Opposing Factions have an Elo of 2400, and Mafia (excluding you) has an Elo of 2600. In other words, OE = 2400 and TE = 2600.

Suppose A% = 0.6 and F% = 0.3 (See Section 2 for an explanation of A% and F%).

Using the Elo gain formula, K * ((1-A%) + (OE - TE)/(2500) + (A% - F%)/(3A%)), we have:

Gain = 18 * ((1-0.6) + (2400 - 2600)/(2500) + (0.6 - 0.3)/(3*0.6)) = +8.8 Elo change.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

A player is currently Silver in their placement games, has 15 games played (K = 40) and loses a game as Mafia.

The Opposing Factions have an Elo of 1300, and Mafia (excluding you) has an Elo of 1250. In other words, OE = 1300 and TE = 1250.

Suppose A% = 0.5 and F% = 0.4 (See Section 2 for an explanation of A% and F%).

Using the Elo loss formula, K * ((-A%) + (OE - TE)/(2500) + (A% - F%)/(3A%)), we have:

Loss = 40 * ((-0.5) + (1300 - 1250)/(2500) + (0.5 - 0.4)/(3*0.5)) = -16.5 Elo change.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

A player is Silver, has 20 games played (K = 40) and loses a game as Neutral Killing

OE - TE = 0 since the player is NK (See point 3. in Section 6 for why this is the case)

Suppose A% = 0.5 and F% = 0.1 (See Section 2 for an explanation of A% and F%).

Using the Elo loss formula, K * ((-A%) + (OE - TE)/(2500) + (A% - F%)/(3A%)), we have:

Loss = 40 * ((-0.5) + (0)/(2500) + (0.5 - 0.1)/(3*0.5)) = -9.3 Elo change.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

A player is Gold, has 40 games played (K = 40) and wins a game as Neutral Evil

OE - TE = 0 since the player is NE (See point 3. in Section 6 for why this is the case)

Suppose A% = 0.5 and F% = 0.3 (See Section 2 for an explanation of A% and F%).

Using the Elo gain formula, K * ((1-A%) + (OE - TE)/(2500) + (A% - F%)/(3A%)), we have:

Gain = 40 * ((1-0.5) + (0)/(2500) + (0.5 - 0.3)/(3*0.5)) = +25.3 Elo change.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

One of the main issues with this Overhaul is that a player can simply gain a good win rate (and therefore a good Elo) in a (relatively) small amount of games by chance, which may discourage them from playing any further games so that they can maintain this good Elo. The introduction of Significance Levels entirely negates this weakness, as seen below.

Significance Levels are given based on the amount of games played - in other words, it is a measure of experience. Significance Levels are grouped as such:

Significance Level Games Required Amount of Significance

Level (1) 19 or less Negligible

Level (2) 20 - 49 Very weak

Level (3) 50 - 99 Weak

Level (4) 100 - 149 Moderate

Level (5) 150 - 199 Good

Level (6) 200 - 249 Good

Level (7) 250 - 349 Good

Level (8) 350 - 449 Strong

Level (9) 450 - 599 Strong

Level (10) 600 - 799 Very strong

Level (11) 800 - 999 Very strong

Level (12) 1000 or more Extremely strong

Elo will now take the format of: Elo (Signifiance Level).

For example, a player with an Elo of 2600 and 500 games played will have an Elo of 2600 (9), since 500 games played correlates to a Significance Level of (9).

It should be noted that Significance Levels would be RESET (back to Level 1) with a Hard Elo Reset (all player Elo back to starting Elo). However, with a Soft Elo Reset (back to minimum of player's tier) or a Season change with no reset whatsoever, the Significance Level is unchanged.

It should also be noted that the amount of games is measured by the amount of Ranked games played FROM the last Hard Elo Reset.

With this change, you can easily distinguish between things affecting Elo (mainly win rate) and Experience, and at the same time you can easily compare things affecting Elo (mainly win rate) and Experience to see if the player's apparent "skill level (Elo)" is actually significant or not (based on the Significance Level). For example, a player with Elo 2700 (5) may not be as skilled as a player that is 2500 (11), since (11) is a much higher significance level and so the latter player has proven they can keep a consistently high Elo score. However, the former player's significance level, while relatively good, is still telling us that their very high Elo could have occurred by chance and so they may fall in Elo (below 2500) once they reach higher levels of significance.

With this system, removing grind now has next to no weaknesses. However, this system does have a weakness that comes with it. It could be argued that, since the Significance Level seemingly has no impact on your Elo Tier, the Significance Level doesn't really matter. Well, the fix to that is simple - it now DOES have an impact on your Elo Tier (see Section 5 below for more information on this).

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

NOTE: See Section 4 (above) for information on Significance Levels

Bronze: Less than 900 Elo & Significance Level (2+)

Silver: 900 Elo to 1499 Elo & Significance Level (2+)

Gold: 1500 Elo to 1799 Elo & Significance Level (2+)

Platinum: 1800 Elo to 2099 Elo & Significance Level (5+)

Diamond: 2100 Elo to 2399 Elo & Significance Level (6+)

Expert: 2400 Elo or more & Significance Level (7+)

Master: Top 20% of Expert Players (Updates Weekly)

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

1. The average Elo score of any given player will be approximately equal to the starting Elo, which is 1200 Elo.

2. The player is required to have played at least 20 Ranked games (placement games) to be given an Elo.

3. Differences in Opposing Team's Elo and Your Team's Elo (for Town/Mafia) does not take into account your own Elo. This is because you are excluded from your own Team's average Elo score, as if you are included and you have a high Elo, after many games you will be punished heavily in terms of Elo, and if you are included and have a low Elo, after many games you will be rewarded heavily in terms of Elo. As such, you must be excluded from the average of your own team's Elo score. This is why differences between opposing team's Elo and your team's Elo cannot be considered if you are Neutral Evil or Neutral Killing, because you must be excluded, but you are the ONLY member of that faction.

4. Things such as A% (Average Tier win %) and F% (Average Tier Faction win %) would probably be most accurately gathered over time (so that the percentages are constantly changing depending on various factors), but the data could also be gathered in an Off Season.

5. The Elo Tier you are in will automatically place you into games with those of similar ability. For any given Tier, in the general case, you will be able to play anyone in your Tier, a Tier above your Tier or a Tier below your Tier.

The only exception is the Master Tier, where you will be able to play against Diamond Tier. This is to increase the diversity of players those in the Master Tier have, and also to prevent those in Expert from easily overtaking those currently in Master by being in the Top 20% of Expert players.

As such, the following hold:

• If you are Bronze: You can play with Bronze and Silver players

• If you are Silver: You can play with Bronze, Silver and Gold players

• If you are Gold: You can play with Silver, Gold and Platinum players

• If you are Platinum: You can play with Gold, Platinum and Diamond players

• If you are Diamond: You can play with Platinum, Diamond and Expert players

• If you are Expert: You can play with Diamond, Expert and Master players

• If you are Master: You can play with Diamond, Expert and Master players

6. A person will be demoted from their Tier if they are below the Elo requirement for their Tier for 5 consecutive games, with the exception of demotion from Master Tier to Expert Tier (see point 8. below).

7. As stated in Section 5, the Top 20% of players within the Expert Tier will be placed in the Master Tier, and this Top 20% will update every week. This means that if someone is in the Top 20% of Expert Tier (Master Tier) one week but is not in the next, they will then be demoted to whatever Elo Tier they are now in immediately.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

PROS

• Less based on grinding Elo. The main changing factor is the win rate of the player. As such, in this Elo rework those with a high amount of games played and a mediocre win rate will not be rewarded as much.

• 20 Placement Games means that there is a larger sample of games than the current 10 Placement Games, meaning that when the player gets their Elo score it is more likely to be indicative of their true skill.

• Allows for a ranking system where those of similar ability (plus or minus one tier, refer to Section 6, point 5. for more info) are placed in games together.

• Considers almost all factors, including things such as Your Faction's and Opposing Faction's Elo when Town/Mafia (refer to Section 6, point 3. for more info on why this is only Town/Mafia), increases in Elo due to large amount of NK/NE/Mafia games (due to low faction win %), loss in Elo due to larger amounts of Town games (due to high faction win %) and the K-factor which considers the amount of overall games played.

• Self-sufficient, since it is based on win percentages. This formula would not have to be updated if balance changes were to be made affecting the faction win percentages. However, a reset would be necessary if balance changes were to occur so that the previous inaccurate data is not taken into account. This would likely be done in the form of a new Season.

• Elo gains/losses from game to game are generally higher and therefore more exciting than the current Elo gains/losses. This may be a deterrent for trolls/gamethrowers/leavers, since losing a game means a heavier punishment than in the current system.

• Higher amount of complexity allows for a more accurate Elo rating and overall skill indication.

CONS

• Relatively complex. Perhaps quite time consuming and/or difficult to implement into the game as a result.

• The amount of Elo increase/decrease due to your faction and Elo increase/decrease due to higher/lower Elo opponents may be weighted too heavily or not heavily enough, since it is impossible to know the optimal weighting of either of these two factors.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────