Stop getting sheeped by mafia

[Randyxpxp]

If there’s anything in this game that tilts me the most, I would say it's when town gets sheeped by mafia and plays right into their hands. Mafia is probably the most common evil that sheeps town (or even other evils) into doing their bidding. This is due in part to the numbers mafia have and in part to the night abilities mafia can exploit, as well as the capacity of mafia to take advantage of NE and NB, who can side with them knowingly or unknowingly. Those of you who know me by now know my main area interest is Classic All Any, but this thread also applies to Ranked and Ranked Practice. For context, I have about 150 mafia wins, so my experience as both mafia and non-mafia is not minimal. I’ve sheeped town and others as mafia many times before, and admittedly I’ve made some mistakes against mafia before as well, although a lot of the time that’s due to town members making themselves look suspicious because they themselves are getting sheeped by mafia/evils. One of the reasons I write this thread tonight is because of a recent decision that I made in regards to how I play Town of Salem. That decision is that, for me personally, I no longer have an interest in playing town, mafia, vampire, or NB for the most part, with the exception of godfather. I typically only play NK and NE. I’ve had my share of watching as my town or vampires or mafia get sheeped, and I no longer wish to rely on other players as heavily. As NK and NE, I can more-so play my own game, as an independent operator. Mafia has become my nemesis in this game as a result, and, as I’ve detailed in other threads, I wish to describe here some of my thoughts and observations as it relates to mafia and getting sheeped by mafia, particularly in AA as opposed to Ranked, where the role list is more defined.
For further context, let’s consider a basic framework of how mafia works, what mafia’s primary motives are, and how mafia can use its abilities to control and manipulate town and others.

1. Mafia needs town, vampires, and NK dead. Mafia can win with NE and NB. This means that mafia is more likely to be focused on lynching town, vampires, and NK than mafia, and may also lynch NE and NB, whereas town are more likely to lynch mafia. This is, of course, a simple observation. Lynching anyone but mafia is usually viewed as a better option by mafia.
2. Mafia generally want its most dangerous enemies disposed of first. This includes jailors, vigilantes, vampires, and NK. All of these roles have the ability to directly target and kill mafia, and mafia are more likely to push to lynch vigilantes, vampires, and NK than less dangerous roles.
3. Mafia can blackmail, distract, investigate, forge, clean, disguise as, and frame town and others. They are not limited to the mere ability to convert or kill (vampires) or kill (NK). They have a much wider toolkit at their disposal and can use this toolkit to carry out a wider range of operations against targets, including silencing enemies, distracting jailors and other important players, cleaning roles and preventing resurrections, and causing non-mafia to appear suspicious at night. Mafia has much more at its disposal to control and manipulate town than vampires or NK do, and this in addition to mafia’s numbers often makes mafia a more dangerous presence in the town. I’ve discussed this in detail in other threads.

That’s a basic framework of mafia, i.e., a basic framework of what mafia wants and what mafia can do. This thread, however, concerns the various ways in which mafia can sheep town and others into doing their bidding, which more often than not serves to harm town/non-mafia, even if town/non-mafia dispose of a mutual enemy such as a vampire or NK. To elaborate upon this, I’ll describe another basic framework of the ways in which mafia can sheep town, followed by a framework of the ways in which mafia can be scum read and countered.

Ways in which mafia can sheep town:

1. Mafia can sheep town by tricking town into focusing on vampires rather than mafia. This is almost always harmful to town, except when vampires have a full clan (i.e. four members), in which case the vampires themselves become like the mafia. Generally, however, vampires only have 1-3 members, whereas mafia probably have at least 3-4 members, and even with only 1-2 members, mafia always kill town whereas vampires can both convert town and kill mafia, as well as identify immunes and vote with town.
2. Mafia can sheep town by tricking them into focusing on NK rather than mafia. This is especially harmful to town when there is only indication of a single NK, such as a lone SK, and when there are no mafia dead yet and also no indications of a jailor, vigilante, or vampires to kill mafia at night. While NK is an enemy of town, mafia is also an enemy of town, and town needs both of them dead to win, not just NK. Oftentimes, lynching an NK rather than a mafia will seal town’s fate, and make it virtually impossible for town to overcome mafia.
3. Mafia can sheep town by claiming TI and tricking town into focusing on town/non-mafia rather than mafia. In All Any, public claims are less prevalent, and mafia can lead the town if one or two of their members claim TI and no one else in the town claims TI. Town will often follow the fake TI’s leads, which more often than not end up getting town/non-mafia lynched. The fake TI may also call for TP/LO and sheep TP/LO into being on them rather than on town. I’ve seen this many times now. This is one of the more difficult deceptions to discern, as actual TIs may also investigate non-mafia and may also call for TP/LO.
4. Mafia can sheep town by tricking town into focusing on NE and NB rather than mafia. This is especially prevalent in the case of jesters, executioners, and survivors, as opposed to witches, although mafia may even push to lynch witches knowingly or unknowingly.
5. Mafia can use a janitor’s knowledge of cleaned roles to fake those roles, even unique roles such as jailor, retributionist, or veteran, or TS roles such as escort or transporter.
6. Mafia can sheep town by more subtle methods such as talking rather staying silent, asking for leads, actively voting, and confirming or supporting town to make themselves appear to be town.

Ways in which mafia can be scum read:

1. Is the player desperately trying to lynch a vampire? This is more often than not an indication of either a mafia member or a town who doesn’t understand the utility of vampires.
2. Has the player expressed any hostility against or concern over vampires? “Do we have a VH?” “Vamp game…” This is, again, more often than not an indication of either a mafia member or a sheep town. Mafia is more dangerous than vampires generally.
3. Is the player desperately trying to lynch an NK? Are there any dead mafia yet? If the NK is lynched today, will this likely give mafia majority tomorrow? Has the player said anything else all game, claimed anything, or given any useful information up to this point? Did they not begin to talk actively and vote until an NK was outed? This is more often than not an indication of either a mafia member or a town getting sheeped by mafia. Lynching NK is sometimes in town’s interest, but in AA in particular, especially in situations in which no mafia are dead, multiple town are dead, and there are no indications of a jailor, vigilante, or vampires to kill mafia, town needs an NK alive to kill/lynch mafia, or else risk certain doom at the hands of the mafia. You help mafia by lynching NK and vampires rather than mafia.
4. Has the TI claim investigated anyone that turned out to be mafia? If the only people they’ve investigated all turn out to be town, this makes it more likely the fake TI is mafia. Has the TI claim been attacked by mafia yet? In AA, if a TI claim hasn’t been attacked by mafia within 2-3 nights, I would suggest this is suspicious.
5. Is the player trying to get an NE or NB lynched, especially when a mafia suspect has been accused or outed? If someone is trying to lynch an apparent jester or an executioner who’s already won or a survivor claim who claimed D1, this could be an indication of someone who’s trying to deflect attention from mafia, again especially in situations in which town is trying to lynch mafia instead of the NE or NB.
6. Has the player asked for leads and/or roles and not been targeted by mafia yet? This itself is suspicious, and could indicate that this person is itself mafia, as mafia are more likely to target players actively asking for leads, voting, and pushing for roles.
7. Has someone whispered to someone else, and been replied to in whisper? This could be a witch whispering to mafia or a mafia whispering to a witch. Have either of these players said anything publicly or given any useful information, asked for leads, pushed for roles? Did one of them die and turn out to be a witch or mafia?
8. Does the player’s will look detailed and sensible? Does it look hastily made and half-hearted? Does the player even have a will? These are information that can be used to discern mafia suspects.
9. Are the players voting in conjunction with each other? Do they vote the same targets at the same time? Do they vote someone else when someone is accused of being mafia? All of these are possible signs of mafia.
10. Did the player refuse to vote up a confirmed mafia? Did the player abstain or vote innocent on a confirmed mafia? Did the player push for the confirmed mafia to be voted innocent? More often than not, these are indications of being mafia.

This thread is not meant to be a complete account of the methods by which mafia can deceive and manipulate town and the methods by which others can counter mafia. It’s situational and chaotic, and the limited time available for discussions and voting creates a pressurized environment that makes it easier for mafia to quickly force a vote or mistrial. I made this thread after watching town get sheeped by mafia time and time again, both as town, as mafia, and as other roles. Mafia want to deceive, confuse, and exploit town. They are not town’s ally. They may want NK dead, but that doesn’t make them an ally of town. I would suggest that one of the most reliable scum reads of mafia presents itself in the player who has been quiet or otherwise inactive up until the time when someone is accused of being NK, at which point the player actively tries to get them lynched. This should be a mafia most of the time. I think the town/mafia/NK dynamic is widely underappreciated, and town get sheeped by mafia into lynching NK more than they would if they considered the situation logically and appreciated the fact town needs both NK and mafia dead, and with NK dead and 3-4 mafia alive, this can easily benefit mafia more than town.

[Shyyster]

k

[Randyxpxp]

k

Thank you.

[kyuss420]

preachin to the choir man

[Randyxpxp]

I hate it when the town is full of sheep. It makes it harder to understand who is good and evil.

This is why I don't play town anymore. I'm done with that BS. I've seen it too many times. I make mistakes too, but the level of sheepage in some towns is truly incredible.

[GrumpyGoomba]

k