Average Winrate of a Player

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Average Winrate of a Player

Postby pod764 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:52 pm

So inspired by the thread viewtopic.php?f=3&t=47939 and the speculations their regarding the average winrate of a player and also by the lack of BMG offering us more playerstatistics (which should have come out with 1.5, but got delayed again), i got curious and started to do some Math (Math. not even once).

Example 1:
If we make following assumptions:

Winrate of Town: 2/3
Wrinate of Mafia: 1/4
Winrate of NK: 1/15
Winrate of NE: 1/2
Winrate of NB: 1/2
Winrate of Any: 1/2

and multiply the the assumed winning chance with right slot in the Ranked Role list(8,3,1,1,1,1,) and divide that by the number of all the people in the Role List (15), we get the average winrate of a player:

(8*2/3+3*1/4+1*1/15+1*1/2+1*1/2+1*1/2)/15 = 459/900 => 0,51111111111.....
So the average winrate of a player would be around 51,11 %.

The Chance of winning as Town, Mafia or NK equals almost 100 % with the assumptions in Example 1 (2/3 + 1/4 + 1/15= 59/60= 0,983333....).

Example 2:
If we Make the Winrate of Town = 3/4, the Winrate of Mafia = 1/5 and leave the Winrate of NK= 1/15

We get 490/900= 0,5444444.... which would equal a average winrate of 54,44 %.

The Chance of winning as Town, Mafia or NK equals almost 100 % with the assumptions in Example 2 (3/4 + 1/5 + 1/15= 61/60=1,016666 ....).

Summary
Even if we change or tweak the winrates of the NB, NE or Any all at once, it won't really affect the endresult of an average winrate of 50 % that much.

Final Example:
Final Assumptions:
Winrate of Town: 3/4
Wrinate of Mafia: 1/5
Winrate of NK: 1/15
Winrate of NE: 1/4
Winrate of NB: 1/2
Winrate of Any: 9/20 (based on adding the winrates of all roles together and dividing it by 33, assumed the winrate of Vamp with 1/15, not sure about that, but shouldn't matter that much)

Analog to my calculations above just with different numbers => 52,44 % average winrate


Edit: The making of "Final Example" was influenced by Sarah's Post.
Last edited by pod764 on Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Average Winrate of a Player

Postby SarahSaurus » Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:35 pm

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=38652&p=1210961&hilit=recording+ranked+games#p1210961

^ a thread I made recording my games from several months ago, where after about 150 games, I had an overall win rate of 57%

I also recorded a bunch of other stuff, including general role/alignment win rates and my win rates in each specific alignment. I will probably start over after 1.5, recording all of the same information (and maybe more)
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