Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

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Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Elastoid » Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:01 pm

I win as mafia at a higher percentage than average (based on the statistics the devs have posted). What I've discovered is that mafia tends to require more finesse than other roles. It's very difficult to "coast to a win" as mafia, whereas if you're town, you can often do nothing and win. Mafia, as a result, is one of the more commonly misplayed roles. More on the subject of misplays here: http://www.blankmediagames.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=16989

Still, I want to talk about mafia objectives and mindset, how to deal with certain scenarios, and then delve into individual roles and how to play them.

1st Principle: Managing the Clock
Spoiler: This is a concept I want every Town of Salem player to learn -- there's a clock, and when you run out of time, you lose. Town's clock is very simple -- they have 8-9 members, mafia has 3-4, and every night, mafia can kill a townie and bring itself closer to having voting control. If no one ever talked, mafia could win around day 5-8. The clock the mafia are against has to do with the information the town has. The more information the town learns, the closer they come to putting together who's the real mafia, and lynching you. The town will typically have the tools to accomplish this by day 4-7. This means the clock is not in your favor. It must be managed.

Every time the town believes good information, the clock against you moves forward.
Every time the town believes false information, the clock against you moves back.
Every time the town acts on good information (lynches an evil), the clock against you moves significantly forward. (1 day or more)
Every time the town fails to act on good information (fails to lynch an evil), the clock against you moves significantly back. (1 day or more)
Every time a mafia fails a kill, the clock against you moves significantly forward. (1 day or more)
Every time a town dies to a non-mafia source, the clock against you moves significantly back. (1 day or more)
Every time a mafia dies, the clock against you moves WAY forward. (2 days or more)
Every time the town acts on false information (lynches a townie), the clock against you moves WAY back. (2 days or more)

Literally everything you do in Town of Salem is to manage this clock. Whenever you do something that manages the clock poorly, you are taking an already difficult situation and making it harder. However, just a few good plays can delay the clock enough to put the mafia ahead, and make it your game to lose.

2nd Principle: Chaos
Spoiler: The town will hear false information and will hear genuine information. There is a ratio of genuine to false information -- if all evils are silent, and do not use deceptive abilities, then 100% of the information will be genuine and the chaos would be at zero. A Jester or Executioner adds to the chaos. A town killing sometimes adds to the chaos. A Survivor occasionally adds to the chaos (they often say true things but then town believes false things). If mafia do not contribute to the chaos, there will be 0-3 sources of chaos in the game. The Jailor and town investigatives are guaranteed to be sources of genuine information, and they may be joined by a Medium, a confirmed town, or any other effective town member who knows when to speak up. If the mafia sow disinformation, however, the chaos ratio shoots way up.

Chaotic towns are rarely able to effectively lynch a target. Chaos at the very least slows the clock, and sometimes nullifies it entirely (no one trusts anyone, the town will not lynch again, mafia quickly takes over).

Sowing chaos can be as hardcore as faslely gaining trust as an investigative role and lynching town, or as simple as expressing reasonable doubt at any true information. "How would dead know who mafia is?" "Who confirmed he was doc?" Shouting "INNO" on a bad lynch when it's too late for people to change their votes. These things introduce some hesitation.

The important thing is not to mark yourself as a sower of chaos, so be careful. You may accidentally give away the truthful information that you're working against town in your effort to be deceptive. So do this with finesse. The part you're playing is that of a conservative, dedicated townie who wants to ensure accurate lynches.

Finally, one of the easiest ways to manage chaos is at night, to stifle reasoned voices (either with death or blackmail) and to always leave chaotic voices untouched. Every unconfirmed town is a source of chaos, so killing them over someone who is more trusted is a move that reduces chaos. Of course, there's a chance they'll be protected, which leads to the next principle -- risk management.

3rd Principle: Risk Management
Spoiler: Risk management is why it's so important to be aware of the clock. There are plays that can be pure stupidity or pure genius, depending on the clock. These plays are risky but, if successful, help drastically reduce the clock. In general, you want to take risks more, the more behind you are. There are points where you will be able to say, based on the clock, "If we fail to make a big play, we will lose." That's when you need to take a risk.

A good example is killing a known Veteran. The Veteran, as a confirmed town, is a risk to you. He can help direct the town as he's known to be good. Worst-case scenario for town, he's just one person who isn't a suspect. As suspects dwindle, the town will feel more comfortable lynching. Killing a random, unconfirmed town will, in death, confirm him as town and reduce the suspects more. So, if you can, you'd like to kill him. Unfortunately, if you go for him, you may die, which is a huge, huge swing in town's favor. It's very difficult to come back from that.

So do you go for the Veteran? Pay attention to the clock. How close are the town to figuring out who's the mafia? If you suspect they'll find one or more of you in the next day or two, and you need at least 3 days to take control, then you should consider going for the Veteran, especially if you have no better play. Why? Because you are going to lose most of these games. You don't want the Veteran to kill you, but if it does, it just turns a loss that was very likely into a loss that is almost guaranteed. If you succeed in killing the Veteran, you got a difficult kill and increased the chaos in the town somewhat.

If you have one town protective down, and there's a known Spy and known Investigator out, then you're very close to being discovered. If you can get the Investigator down, you're in much better shape, but if you lose a night to a Doctor heal, that's a loss in momentum. If you lose a mafia to a Bodyguard, that's a bigger loss. Do you go for it? Look at the clock.

Non-killing mafia can make big plays, too. You claimed Lookout and have been generally ignored. Now you figure you're close to being discovered, and the mafia is significantly behind. That's the time to try to convince the town to lynch a town. You run the risk that the townie will be believed and you'll be lynched instead, effectively putting the mafia in a hole too big to climb out of. If you succeed, though, you get the town to waste a day AND reduce their numbers, effectively gaining you two days. You can try to talk your way out of being lynched tomorrow. Maybe you get shot by a Vigilante or executed by a Jailor. It's a risk that's sometimes worth taking.

4th Principle: Effective Information Management
Spoiler: You have more information than the town to start. In fact, you have almost 100% of the information that they need to win the game. You need to take careful pains not to bleed that information.

Every time you speak at night, you are potentially giving away information.
Every time you visit someone at night, you are potentially giving away information.

With this in mind, you must always evaluate these actions with not only risk/reward, but knowns/unknowns. If you have already cleaned a body, then the town knows there is a Janitor and cleaning the second body is less of a problem. If you have already blackmailed a person, the town knows there's a Blackmailer. If someone has already been visited by mafia, then a Spy would already know they're not mafia, and there's less problem visiting them again.

There are some players who are just too loose-lipped at night. Let's say you're playing Consigliere, and you find the Jailor. You want him instantly killed, so you say, "Kill 12, he's Jailor." What information have you just given a Spy?

-- there is a Consigliere.
-- 12 is Jailor.
-- 12 is marked for death.

Now you've given away a ton of information for free, especially if the Jailor somehow survives the night.

What if, instead, you simply said the word "Kill," and then showed them by choosing to investigate them and changing your mind? That shows the name, but the Spy doesn't know who you target, how you arrived at the decision, or why you're targeting that person. You achieve the same result (killing the Jailor), but you also managed information effectively.

NEVER refer to an ability by name if you don't have to. Don't say "blackmail 10" or "roleblock 3." NEVER say "frame 2." These nuggets of information are incredibly useful for a Spy. There's no commonly-used alternative, unfortunately, so sometimes it's a risk that you need to take. There's an "ideal scenario" way to get around it, but it's complicated.* As things stand right now, you'll sometimes have to say a role, but it's best if you don't, so use that play very sparingly.

If you're visiting someone, you had better be able to justify it. Many of the common mafia misplays involve blackmailing or cleaning on the first night (the exception is if a Mayor reveals day 1... blackmail him and/or clean someone if possible). Remember, every visit is information for the other team, so do not give it away lightly. More on that in the individual role discussions.

* For those that care... Let's say there's four mafia on the mafia list popup -- it shows Danny, Jimmy, Steve and Bobby, in that order. You could refer to Danny as 1, Jimmy as 2, Steve as 3 and Bobby as 4. You could then say, "1, target this person." Of course, you would NEVER want to say, "4, target this person," so instead, if you need to direct number 4, use your own number. Thus, Danny would direct Jimmy by saying "2," Steve by saying "3," and Bobby by saying "1." Bobby would know that DANNY is 1, so he's really directing Bobby without four mafia. Jimmy would direct Danny as "1," Bobby as "2," and Steve as "3." Meanwhile, Bobby would never have to direct himself, so he can direct people as 1, 2 or 3 easily.

The problem with this is it'd need to be well-understood in the metagame in order to be effective. It's NOT okay to use the number 4, as the information of mafia's numbers is WORSE to give out than a certain role. That's why this scenario only works if people understand it and can use it effectively. To that end, I've explained it, and I can just hope that high-elo people eventually come to take note and use it, as they're the ones who would most benefit from effective mafia communication.

5th Principle: Be Active
Spoiler: Passive mafias lose games. Active mafias win by playing town better than town.

Pick what role you're going to claim early. Don't claim it unless necessary -- you want to stay flexible -- but be prepared to claim anything. Have the wiki page open for that role, as well as the wiki page for all town roles (in case you decide to swap before you claim), and update your will consistently. Before you say, "that doesn't prove anything!" I know. I know it doesn't. At the same time, the more convincing you can make it, the more you're going to be able to contribute to chaos. Also, remember there are Jailors and townies who believe that kind of crap, so you had better have it at the ready, just in case. You don't get to bank on the townies being as suspicious and smart as you -- in fact, you're hoping for the opposite.

If there's a Mayor, whisper him all the time with updates and people you think seem suspicious, or ways to go about things. The more time he spends reading, the less time he spends reasoning. You can convince him to lynch the wrong person often. Don't say, "I'm Lookout and this guy is guilty" if you don't have to -- instead say, "this guy keeps claiming Medium, but I haven't heard a peep from him about what the dead are saying." The Mayor has a lot to figure out, and your "help" might get him to lynch the wrong person, or will at least make it harder to figure out what's what.

If there's a Mayor, there are several solid claims you can make, but remember it's best to avoid roles that are already confirmed. Don't pick a town support, because there's only one left, and then the any, and that's a rough spot to be in. If there are no dead investigatives, Lookout is a great claim, and Investigator is a solid claim if you think you're good at role-guessing. If there are three investigative claims, the Mayor can't be sure the any isn't an investigative, and even if he is sure, now he's got 3 suspects, instead of 2 or 1. It's a more chaotic claim. Also, Bodyguard is a great claim, because the Mayor wants to keep them alive and hidden, and it's hard to know who's telling the truth.

I won a game that SHOULD have been a loss by claiming Bodyguard (I was Godfather) and having the Mayor tell the Doc to heal me, then attacking the Mayor, killing the actual Bodyguard and surviving. My teammate then, at my request, claimed that he was Doctor and healed another player, so THEY must be Godfather, and the person claiming Doc was lying. I managed to abuse chaos to avoid lynching for one day, and that was enough. The Mayor's protection was gone, and while I was ultimately lynched, the team was able to clean up the game. We were way behind in a Mayor game, but won with good coordination, town participation, and active play.

6th Principle: Would a Townie Do That?
Spoiler: I'm not sure if this really should fall under strategic principles or misplays, and this really shouldn't need saying sometimes, but I see a lot of people make this mistake. If that's the case with you, you're not alone. Keep this in mind: if you were actively trying to help town win, how would you behave? Why is it that so many people will play town most of their games, and when they're saddled with a mafia role, they forget the way town acts? They start playing like mafia, which is bad.

One of the mistakes I see a lot is refusal to whisper Mayor your role. Obviously, you're going to lie if you whisper, but what about the guy who simply doesn't claim a role? Is that suspicious? Yes, because if you were town, and you were trying to make town win, you would participate.

Here's an example of something a townie WOULD do. If your mafia buddy is called out by a Sheriff, saying "Exe?" is a common thing. But what if your buddy claims "I was trans last night?" If the game has no confirmed Transporter, it's possible. Now, you're in a situation where your buddy is probably going to get lynched. That's the honest truth. That said, it's a huge win for you if you can keep the Sheriff busy and delay the lynch a day, so now you want to stall. A townie WOULD say something like, "If he was trans with mafia they won't admit to being trans, it proves them guilty." "Trans, DON'T TRANS HIM TONIGHT. Sheriff PLZ RECHECK."

What are you doing there? You're speaking out as a rational voice. You might get a Doc healing you as a result, because you're so clearly in favor of town getting it right. Your behavior is not clearly anti-town. Then maybe your Consort could roleblock the Sheriff, and after he claims RB, then you whisper to him "Mafia might be trying to get you to lynch an inno. Wish we knew who town supports are."

Some mafia blatantly behave in ways that make it clear they're not super into town winning. Claiming Escort and then roleblocking the guy who claims Sheriff. WOULD A TOWNIE DO THAT? Probably not. (This, incidentally, is why Consorts should rarely claim Escort -- they're no longer able to use their ability to effectively nullify town without appearing obviously guilty.)

Framers who say, "I have something -- this guy came up mafia. Plz confirm if there is Sheriff," what are you doing? Would a real Sheriff behave that way? Probably not. That's why it seems to never work -- its suspicious the way you behave, because the role you're claiming would not behave in the manner you're behaving.

So let's say you're close to having the votes and a mafia is found. It's 4v3 and you need to dodge one vote -- obviously you don't want to vote him up, but you don't want to seem suspicious either. What would a town do? What reasons might you, as a town, not vote?

Well, it could be that you're uncertain. Good townies are rarely paralyzed with uncertainty, but you're not pretending necessarily to be a GOOD townie, just a townie. Perhaps an overly-cautious townie. Maybe you're a little dumb. "Why are we lynching?" You ask. I love when they say "READ JAILOR WILL" or something, and it's a long will. You say "Okay hang on reading will," and you can kill 10+ seconds "reading" it. Or, you can say "That's not very solid proof..." and say a reason you think he's not guilty. "I don't know he helped us find the SK and has played pretty solid town." "If mafia, he's really good because he convinced me."

Maybe you think it's a misdirect. If the player's being lynched for not playing enough like town, you may want more proof. "Jester?" You ask.

Or maybe someone else seems more suspicious to you. Instead of a refusal to vote, you vote for a different person. Fuck, vote for a different mafia. Shout your target in chat and say he's probably a mafia. The cool thing there is you may split the vote -- get someone else to vote for your target, splitting the town and making it impossible to lynch anyone.

If, however, you are talking -- clearly not afk -- and not voting, the town will probably suspect you're mafia and lynch you for it. It's a good way to lose close games.

Why do you never change your claim? Because townies don't lie. You can sometimes change your claim to Survivor, but that will usually get you lynched and is at best a flailing, last-ditch effort. "Sorry I lied about Medium, I'm Survivor I just want to live. Towns always lynch me when I claim Survivor, so I claimed a town, hope they don't lynch me anyway." This rarely works. Being caught in a lie is devastating because townies (almost always) tell the truth. The town's stated purpose is supposedly a shared goal, and anyone who shares that goal has no reason to lie. That's why you take careful pains to craft a story that makes sense, and don't gamble unless you have to, because known liars get lynched (or Jailor executed).

I won a game claiming Lookout by becoming "confirmed" as Lookout. Our Godfather was executed by Jailor, and I was last remaining mafia. I had been Consig, though, and had the Jailor narrowed down to one of two targets. I whispered one of them and said, "You visited 5 last night, you must be Jailor." The clock was far against me (1st Principle) but I was playing actively (5th Principle) and I took 50-50 shot at being confirmed (3rd Principle). Once the Jailor (and Spy, as it happened) believed me, they lynched the Jester (who killed the Spy) while I killed the Jailor as he executed the last unconfirmed town (a misplay thanks to chaos, 2nd Principle), and then it was a 1v1 between me and a confirmed Medium. A ridiculous comeback win because I recognized the situation I was in, made the right play, and got lucky.

Roles:

Going to go into roles in-depth, but first, a couple notes on leadership and on claims. First, when it comes to leadership, generally the person with the most information is the leader. Consiglieres are often telling Godfathers what to do because they know more. Active players during the day often learn information, not only on who's got what role, but on who trusts whom. If you know your teammate is active during the day, you want to generally follow his lead.

Second, with regards to claims, a really old idea from Classic mode is that you want to claim what the Investigator would come up with. In order for your claim to need to match an Investigator's read, you need three things to happen. First, you need an Investigator in the game, which will happen less than 50% of the time. Second, you need the Investigator to check you, which will happen more often as the game goes on, but less often during those vital early days when your team's trying to take the lead. Third, you need your claim to be known to the Investigator, which requires that it's said out loud, or made public some other way (Jailor will for instance). Because all three of these things has to happen before your claim has to match an Investigator's information, it's usually best to ignore Investigators and just claim what you think is best. I'll list good claims for each role, but most of the time, they'll be the same, because most of the time, your role will NOT AFFECT THE PART YOU PLAY TO THE TOWN.

A final note on claims: tailor your claim to your playstyle. If you're a very strong active player, Lookout is a good role to claim, as you can often guess on who's visited whom, and get people to trust you (which makes them trust other investigatives less, and chaos abounds), and you can judge when to take advantage of that trust. If you're not as good at actively playing during the day, then know your limits and claim something easier, like Bodyguard or Doctor. Medium and Sheriff roles can go either way, although both are dangerous -- they are so frequently claimed by evil roles that the town often just doesn't believe you. Note that I NEVER list Survivor as a valid claim -- the Survivor is often targeted when the town DOESN'T suspect he's evil, and when that role has multiple claimants, they're almost always going to die. Survivor is a suspicious claim -- if you're going to lie anyway, you might as well tell a lie that won't get you killed, even when you're believed.

Godfather: CLAIMS -- Bodyguard, Lookout, Doctor, Sheriff, Medium
Spoiler: Your job is to decide who dies, and that's a really important role. Mistakes made in killings tend to be small but add up greatly. Every decision you make has to be calculated -- even the ones that seem random.

Your first kill, you typically don't know anything, so your objective is to kill someone that NO ONE ELSE visits. You want to avoid the protectives, the Jailor, the Lookout and the Neutral Killing. You also want to avoid Veterans. How do you avoid these things? First, disqualify anyone who calls attention to himself Day 1. Nothing is known yet, so the person may be a Veteran trying to lure mafia. This is good -- he's just as likely to lure an Investigator or Doctor. He might give you a free kill. Vets who alert night 1 are making a bad misplay, so don't reward it with a free kill. The quiet ones who alert night 1? It happens. Take a breath and move on. Second, try to avoid spots 1 and 15 most of the time. Most players by now have stopped targeting those spots night 1, but some still do, and all it takes is some of us. Third, try to avoid names that stand out as too clever or funny, and avoid names that have clear rivals (Jesus vs Satan, Optimus and Megatron, etc.) as oftentimes Serial Killers think it's HILARIOUS to target based on names. Finally, if you recognize a name from a previous game that day and you know they played well, consider killing that person to lower the overall intellect of the town.

Later kills have to do with risk/reward. When there are multiple known townies, consider picking off a known one, especially if one protective is already gone. Figure that the protectives don't know each other and so will choose their targets independently -- often going for the most obvious choice. If a Retributionist brought back the Spy, the Spy will probably be double-protected, leaving any other confirmed town bare. Jailors rarely jail confirmed towns, as they're looking to carry by randomly finding a mafia who doesn't read his card or his will or answer quickly enough or some stupid thing. Remember that killing neutrals doesn't help you, as neutrals might vote for you. Killing a Witch is a mistake, and every random kill COULD be a Witch. Killing a confirmed town helps with chaos AND helps you ensure you don't accidentally kill someone that might help you, like a Witch, Jester or Survivor. Obviously, you NEVER want to target a neutral without good reason -- even a Werewolf might be good to keep around.

When you find a Werewolf (or other neutral killing), what do you do? You can either kill them (if it's Werewolf on non-full moon), call them out in your death note, or do nothing. Which act is correct is based on the risk management/clock principles. Every neutral killing of a town helps you push the clock in your favor, every killing of a mafia obviously hurts you much more. The higher percentage of the town is mafia, the more likely you'll be killed by a neutral, and the more likely you are to win without them, so you want them dead. The lower percentage of evil in the town, the more you want to keep them around to give the town more targets. You'd rather they lynch the Werewolf than find him dead at night and focus on finding mafia to kill. Calling out a neutral killing in a death note usually means town will kill them in a day or two. Either Jailor will react, or investigatives will check the target. Rarely do they lynch on death note alone, although some towns will.

Finally, if you attack a target and they live, they may be night immune, but they may not. Often, they'll say something like "thanks doc" or "I was attacked in jail." (They'll really often point out they were attacked in jail, as they don't want the Jailor to think they're mafia.) If they were jailed, don't target them again -- they'll often be jailed again to see if there's a mafia kill, and you can't abstain from a night of killing just hoping the Jailor accidentally executes someone. Remember there may be Sheriffs or Investigators closing in on you -- the clock's working against you, you don't have time to get clever working for what's at best a 1 for 1 trade. If the target says nothing, it's possible they're night immune, in which case you probably shouldn't attack them again. Your lost kill is a drag, so you want to make up for lost time. Target people you think will die.

Oh, and it should go without saying, but Witches and Survivors are votes for mafia. Don't kill them. If you know an Executioner's target, don't kill his target. He can help you get a town lynched, and he's more valuable to you as Executioner than Jester.

Mafioso: CLAIMS -- Bodyguard, Lookout, Doctor, Sheriff, Medium, Veteran
Spoiler: Read Godfather. Now, consider what kind of Mafioso you are. If you're a promoted Mafioso (GF is dead), then your team is scrambling. You're in trouble. Often, your role claim has been compromised (you claimed Escort and can no longer roleblock to prove, you claimed Investigator and can't watch anyone). In these cases, you almost always want to go for broke. Swing for the fences. Kill the person you most want dead, and hope they aren't protected. You spent most of the game being active (because you're a good mafia player) trying to gain trust, now you need to cash in that trust and use it to avoid detection and ideally help the town find someone else to lynch. A living Survivor or Witch helps your chances, as do dead investigative roles, cleaned bodies, and any other confusion that exists for the town.

If you're a Mafioso from the beginning (there is a living Godfather), make sure to vote to kill whomever the Godfather wants to kill (sometimes a roleblocked Godfather will mean you kill a different target), try to help the Godfather pick a good target if he's not on the ball, and focus on being active during the day. Your night ability is mostly insurance, so you can play like you would as any other mafia -- focus on being hard to find during the day.

One thing you should always consider is your death note. Use it sometimes to sow chaos, by calling out someone. Straight up lie -- if someone was attacked in jail so there was no mafia kill, accuse someone completely different of being immune. If it's known (or suspected) that there is or was a Consigliere, then call someone with a difficult role to prove (like Medium) out as Arsonist or SK, with "you're welcome town" as part of it. For some reason, people believe death notes with "you're welcome town" in it. Sometimes, use it to tell the truth and draw attention to a real target that isn't you. Sometimes, use it to point out an inconsistency in someone's story. The town isn't likely to trust your death note, but it usually costs you nothing to try. If you only get a free kill 1 in 20 games, it's still worth it.

Finally, if you claim Veteran, you almost never want to be specific about alerts you've used. It's best to claim you still have all your alerts. No one can prove mafia has ever visited you (since they haven't), so there's no argument that you SHOULD HAVE alerted. Plus, if you claim to alert a night when it turns out a town visited you, you look really foolish. Better to claim you still have all your alerts, so the town values you more if they believe. You really only want to make this claim if you suspect you've been investigated, though, as this claim has a VERY short shelf-life. There is one real town killing (half the time, a Vigilante who will shoot you), and once they're known, you only have the "any" fallback. Usually not a good claim, but if you know you've been investigated, can be plausible, especially if made in private.

Blackmailer: CLAIMS -- Bodyguard, Lookout, Doctor, Sheriff, Medium
Spoiler: What's good about blackmail? It can't be stopped by town protectives. That means a known Mayor or Spy can often be delayed through blackmail, sometimes for a long time if the Jailor is an idiot and doesn't jail your target after realizing they can't speak. Also, any confirmed town investigative role can be blackmailed, and if they're jailed, they can't do their job that night, so you're actively hurting their ability to work.

You almost never want to randomly blackmail someone. People constantly underestimate the strength of team comp knowledge. If you haven't blackmailed anyone, the town may think the Escort is a Consort, and lynch. The Investigator might speak up early, allowing you to blackmail him the rest of the game. Or, you may be able to blackmail and lynch a target, and the town won't believe their claim that they're blackmailed as NO ONE has been blackmailed up until then.

When you blackmail a random (which you should almost never do), you have to consider they're likely to claim blackmail by spam voting four times immediately when votes are available. This means the town will have an explanation for their never talking, and is less likely to lynch the person, and will suspect YOU more if you accuse them. (Don't think that means faking blackmail is a good idea, by the way -- it isn't. Any Spy will know you're lying and then you can get lynched for free.) This basically means you semi-confirm them as non-mafia even if there isn't a Spy. If there IS a Spy, you've confirmed them for sure with your visit, and if not, you've still given the town more information than they should have. They may not choose to act on it, as the person COULD be faking blackmail, but all the information you're giving is true, so it's bad information management to randomly blackmail, just the same.

A note on Lookouts -- when you're blackmailing an Investigator, Sheriff or Spy, it's almost always worth the risk of a Lookout. Why? The worst-case scenario, that you're caught, requires not only that there's a Lookout, but that the Lookout watch your target, AND that you're the only non-confirmed town visiting your target, and often there will be Doctors and Bodyguards visiting. Once you know there's one non-Lookout investigative role, the odds of a Lookout become 1 in 4. The Sheriff, Spy or Investigator has information that is almost always going to be a greater risk to your team than the risk of a Lookout, so it's almost always worth it. If there's a known Lookout, it's less worth it, but consider: if you KNOW there's a Lookout, AND you know another investigative role, there's a solid chance you can just kill the Lookout anyway, as there are too many confirmed towns and the Lookout is NOT a high-priority for protection.

When you don't know who you're blackmailing, however, visiting the same target is almost never worth it. They're unlikely to be lynched for it, they're unlikely to know anything worth suppressing, and now the (still somewhat minor) risk of a Lookout spotting you is greater than what you gain. There is a vast chasm between a useful blackmail, like a Mayor or Investigator, and a useless blackmail, like a Vigilante or Survivor or Doctor or Medium or Jailor or pretty much anyone. NEVER use your ability when NOT using it is better.

Consort: CLAIMS -- Escort, Bodyguard, Lookout, Doctor, Sheriff, Medium
Spoiler: Like the Blackmailer, the Consort is looking for a GOOD use of her ability. Good uses include preventing an Investigator or Sheriff from investigating, preventing a protective from protecting, preventing a Retributionist from reviving, and preventing an Amnesiac from becoming town. Another good use is stopping a Jailor or Vigilante from killing a mafia.

Save your ability until you know you have something good. You MAY randomly roleblock an Investigator night 1, but you may also hit a Veteran, which doesn't help you. You may roleblock a Jailor or Survivor or something useless night 1, and be giving a Spy more information than you should. Most importantly, you don't want the town to know there's ANY roleblocking going on -- Escort or otherwise. This information is valuable.

The Investigator/Sheriff is your most common roleblock, which is why Escort is NOT your best claim, a lot of the time. If you claim Escort, and then a proven Investigator or Sheriff keeps getting roleblocked, people will rightly guess you're Consort. If the proven Investigator is being roleblocked and you claimed Doctor, they'll guess there is Consort but not know who it is. In fact, even a Lookout seeing you visit the Investigator won't know for sure you're Consort, if a Bodyguard or Doctor visited as well -- he'll just know two or more people claim town protective, they are visiting the Investigator and one is lying.

Blocking the Investigator is almost never worth your life -- you're trading a sure kill for what may have been a kill sometime. That's why you rarely want to claim Escort, because when you're using your power effectively, you're clearly using it for evil, and the town will figure that out.

A great play as a Consort -- and an automatic one, especially if you haven't used your ability yet -- should be to roleblock anyone who offers proof of their role. If a Vigilante says "I'll prove it, I'll shoot Survivor tonight," and you roleblock him, he may get lynched. Of course, he'll SAY he was roleblocked, but if this is the first time you roleblocked ANYONE, then his claim is really difficult to believe. You always want to roleblock someone who claims Amnesiac. Unlike Survivors, Amnesiacs usually wind up siding with town, so if you can get them lynched because they keep CLAIMING they were roleblocked, you're gaining the mafia some time and costing the town a possible team member. This goes double for any claimed Retributionist. You want to roleblock him every night and maybe get the mafia to kill him if you can't get him lynched. His ability REALLY hurts your side, and keeping him from using it is a huge coup.

If you're working with a Consigliere, you might get a heads up about a good roleblock before the town even knows. This often plays out to roleblock a Bodyguard, leaving a known town open to be killed. Most of the time, protectives fly under the radar, although they do tend to whisper more. Sometimes, roleblocking whispering players pans out -- they might be Investigators or protectors.

Finally, the one time you DO want to randomly roleblock is if one of the mafia is jailed and you suspect the Jailor will execute (so obviously never night 1) -- then you want to make an educated guess at who the Jailor is and roleblock. Even if you're wrong, and your teammate gets executed, you've eliminated one candidate for Jailor. If you're right, and your teammate gets lynched anyway, you've found the Jailor either way. Finally, since the Jailor is rarely known, roleblocking him doesn't confirm you're evil, so you can still claim Escort semi-safely.

Consigliere: CLAIMS -- Investigator, Bodyguard, Lookout, Doctor, Sheriff, Medium
Spoiler: This is the ONE role where using your ability night 1 is guaranteed to give your team more information than it gives away. This is a very powerful role.

If you're working with a Janitor, you want to find and clean an investigative role -- that allows you to safely claim Investigator. Otherwise, you want to avoid claiming anything. The Consigliere, unlike other roles, wants to go unnoticed as long as possible. His night ability is so strong that he just wants as many nights as possible to use it. That means don't claim Investigator early in attempt to get someone lynched later down the line. Doing so means someone might eventually count investigative roles and suspect you're Consigliere, and then you die. If you have to make an early claim to a Mayor, though, you claim Investigator and then you make sure to be actively whispering in his ear to try to neutralize any suspicion of you. You're rarely happy you have to make this play -- it's not a great play, but it's better than remaining silent and slightly better than claiming Bodyguard.

Keep a notepad document open. Put all your information in there, so you don't have to store it in your will. If at any point it's confirmed there's no Spy (you know the Any role and both investigatives), TELL THE MAFIA EVERYTHING YOU KNOW. In the meantime, you mostly want to point out good targets for kills or roleblocks.

You ALWAYS want to kill the Jailor or an unrevealed Mayor. You often want to kill any confirmed town, but you rarely want to kill an unconfirmed town if a confirmed one is known. (Example -- you found the last remaining Doctor, and the town doesn't know who he is, but they DO know who the Retributionist is. Better to have a Consort block the Doctor and kill the known Retributionist, as that contributes to chaos and keeps your knowledge ahead of town's.) Keep in mind, every time a person you investigated dies, you've worked for knowledge that the town now has. Sometimes (like when killing a Jailor), that's worth it, but often (like when killing a Medium), it's better that the town NOT know.

Finally, because you know more than the others, you're often a defacto mafia leader. Your team is trusting you to direct them, so do so as best you can. Consiglieres can carry games easily.

Disguiser: CLAIMS -- Bodyguard, Lookout, Doctor, Sheriff, Medium, Jester*
Spoiler: The Disguiser, as the game stands right now, has what's often a REALLY useless night ability. When you disguise as someone, SURPRISE, they put their name in their will, and you're going to be lynched.

The thing about that is, it's most often true night 1, when the town has a strong majority in voting and they have few leads to distract them. Midgame disguises succeed way more, because often, towns don't pay enough attention to wills. There's always one or two slow voters who go "wait, why are we lynching this guy?" Then everyone's yelling READ THE WILL and then it's too late and the time's up, so they spend all next day wasting their time trying to lynch you.

Think of things this way -- as mafia, why is it bad to behave as an Executioner? You announce yourself as an investigative early and get a town lynched to move the clock in your direction? Well, because often, you'll be lynched the next day or killed by a Jailor, at which point it's a 1 for 1 trade, which does NOT benefit the mafia. The Disguiser, on the other hand, has an out. He can change faces, and SOMETIMES get away with it. Even if he doesn't get away with it, the town will often drop every other lead to go after a Disguiser, which can be beneficial if the Investigator has been shouting for two days about hanging the Godfather.

So, when you're playing Disguiser, start out by trying to gain the trust of one or two town members. Using whispers can be a solid tool. If the mafia attacked someone and they didn't die, you can whisper them "you're welcome." If they were healed, they'll instantly think you're confirmed Doctor -- if they weren't, they'll respond "for what?" and you can pretend you whispered the wrong target. Now you can focus on trying to sow chaos more actively than other mafia members.

Your ultimate goal is to get a town member lynched around day 4-5. Why day 4-5? Because that late in the game, there will be multiple threads of inquiry. If you get someone lynched, you distracted the town with another thread. Also, there's a chance that one of the other leads will distract the town from lynching you the next day, whether you disguise or not. If you don't disguise, there is a chance that the town will think that you're a Jester or Executioner and fail to lynch. If you DO disguise, there's a chance that the town will be too distracted by other leads to lynch you.

This last is truly underestimated. Imagine, for example, that on Day 4, an Investigator is saying that Jimmy is a Witch, and at the same time, you (claiming Sheriff), say you found a mafia. You get a townie lynched. You then change faces when the mafia kills another townie. The next day, the mafia say "Jimmy is Witch?" and start voting for him. At the same time, maybe someone is pointing out the will of the person whose identity you took. Now, there are two leads the town is talking about -- the Disguiser will and the Witch. The mafia is voting for the Witch. All it takes is one or two people voting Witch instead of Disguiser for you to survive another night. If you're lucky, there will be gridlock and NO ONE will be lynched.

There are two key concepts that make Disguising a potentially useful ability in these scenarios. First, you've already gotten someone lynched, so at worst it's a 1 for 1 trade. Second, you're disguising late in the game where there are multiple leads and you can potentially escape lynching because of the confusion. You never use your ability when your team is way ahead and the town has few leads to go on, but when there's a lot of chaos but your team is behind, Disguisers can actually win games. At worst, a Disguiser is a regular mafia member who is slightly more active than normal during the day.

Finally, in the rare instance where there is a Janitor (both Disguiser and Janitor are Mafia Deception, not Support, so they will rarely occur in the same game), you're ahead already because there are four mafia. The dream, though, is taking the place of a CONFIRMED town. This is very difficult, as they are usually protected, but if there are multiple confirmed towns, sometimes you get away with it. Most of the time, though, this won't happen (let's count the things that need to happen for this to work -- 1. there needs to be a Disguiser and Janitor, which is rare, 2. there needs to be at least one confirmed town, 3. that confirmed town must be unprotected because of dead protectives or multiple targets for protection, and 4. there can't be a Medium), so strategy in these instances isn't worth spending much time talking about. If you somehow slip into the skin of an Investigator undetected, lynch a couple people then you'll have the votes to lynch everyone else.
*You don't claim this role, you just sometimes act like one.
Framer: CLAIMS -- Bodyguard, Lookout, Doctor, Sheriff, Medium
Spoiler: Underrated role, especially in ranked. In defense of the people who rate this role low, there's a significant chance you're in a game with NO Investigator or Sheriff, in which case your night ability is ONLY useful for showing the Spy who's not mafia. That said, consider how valuable it is when you successfully frame a target -- you not only get the target lynched, but you discredit the Investigator or Sheriff who called him out.

The Framer and Disguiser are similar in that, often, they're just a generic mafia member whose night ability is primarily irrelevant. That's not the end of the world, because active mafia win games, and you can work against town without a night ability. I cannot stress enough how simple it is to win as mafia by just using chaos to stall votes until the mafia has the votes it needs. Your night ability is gravy.

A good Framer doesn't act until he knows more about the landscape of the town. What are the investigatives? If it's Sheriff/Investigator, you're in great shape. If it's Spy/Lookout, you will never use your ability, ever. If it's Spy/Sheriff, you will use your ability VERY sparingly.

You want to use your ability on the night you know who's going to be investigated. Sometimes, that opportunity presents itself organically. Someone will shout "Investigators please check this person," often because they're behaving oddly, like a Jester, and then you know what to do. Sometimes, the opportunity is created by the mafia -- they lie and say someone is immune in their death note, and the next night, the Investigators will check that person (it's dumb how often that works, by the way -- you're checking this person because the MAFIA called them out, you investigate him, and he comes up MAFIA, and you don't think something's up? And yet, it works most of the time :P). Sometimes, the person is asked their role and doesn't say, and you think a Sheriff or Investigator will follow up.

Either way, you recognize that in many games, you are simply "generic mafia member," and you never use your ability. There will be many games where your ability never impacts the game, and you have to win by just playing well during the day. Sometimes, though, you will manage a successful framing, and doing so is often potentially game-winning.

So don't frame every night and hope you randomly hit paydirt. Play the Framer like a Vigilante -- watch, wait, knowing often you'll never use your ability, but looking for the right circumstances. In the meantime, you're just another vote for your team.

Janitor: CLAIMS -- Bodyguard, Lookout, Doctor, Sheriff, Medium
Spoiler: Don't clean a body night 1, unless a Mayor reveals day 1. See: http://www.blankmediagames.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=16989 for an in-depth reasoning behind that.

You almost always want to clean a body night 2 or 3 in the game, so there's a little bit of leeway with role claims and a little bit of uncertainty among the townspeople. You almost always want to save at least one cleaning for a high-priority will that needs to be destroyed, like a proven Investigator, Transporter or Jailor (when you know protectives are dead or otherwise occupied).

You always want to take into account risk -- never clean on a full moon when the neutral killing may be a werewolf. In SK games there's a risk you die to SK so you want to clean on night 2 to ensure at least one body is cleaned before you die. In Arsonist games that risk is minimal, and in Werewolf games you don't want to multi-visit on any full moon night. Either way, Janitors require double-visiting a target, meaning Lookouts and Veterans get 2 for 1 on their night abilities. If you've got reason to believe that your target is NOT a Veteran (the Vet is shown elsewhere or your Consigliere has given you a target) it's safer to clean. If you know there is no Lookout or you're going for a random target (did not draw attention so Lookout will probably not choose this one), it's safer to clean.

The Janitor's early cleanings are about the role list, and while that's powerful, it's not nearly as important as you think. If you were a Disguiser instead of a Janitor, your ability would be unused for most of the game, and the mafia still could win, so your night ability is just icing on the cake -- not a necessity. So don't use it if there's a lot of risk. The later in the game you're cleaning bodies, the more information the wills have, and the more important cleaning becomes.

Finally, if it's ever confirmed there is no Spy, tell the mafia in chat ALL you know, about the roles of the cleaned victims, and any useful information their wills contained. If you clean an Escort and then tell the mafia what her will said, one of them can claim Escort and say he roleblocked the right people on the right nights to be confirmed. If you clean an Investigator who found the Jailor, it's worth telling the mafia who to kill.
Last edited by Elastoid on Tue Mar 31, 2015 1:05 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Exacerbated » Tue Mar 24, 2015 9:44 pm

Excellent work. This guide should really see more attention that it has already.

Also, I think another essential strategy for Mafia to learn is how to distance from each other without it looking like it is staged and in a way where it doesn't compromise the Mafia's interests.

If you can split the possible Mafia worlds apart, you can run Town around in circles and can even buy yourself Town cred if you pull it off correctly in case you have to eventually bus somebody.

An advanced strategy is to buddy up with other Townies and make them look implicated when you flip scum to those who are looking for associative tells later in the game.

i.e. There was myself (Mafioso), the Janitor, the Godfather, and a Sheriff, Survivor, and Veteran. I posed as an Investigator. I found a Sheriff and we shared information, whispering to each other the entire game. Godfather made me face check the unknown Veteran on alert and flipped scum. The Sheriff was immediately put under suspicion and was mislynched by the town. Survivor ended up helping us lynch the Veteran.
Last edited by Exacerbated on Tue Mar 24, 2015 9:59 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby PuppetStrings » Tue Mar 24, 2015 10:09 pm

Really nice work. I really want to go to ToS and play as maf just to test the things that you say here.

By the way, once, in ranked, I saw a GF that used numbers when talking to us, the maf, it got me thinking that maybe we played together that time? I don't know if the idea is yours (and I don't know if you're the only one that thought about it), but he seemed like he knew what was doing.
Sorry for the bad English >.<

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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Tiltedcomedian » Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:26 am

I'd add onto this as well, which I saw in another thread here. I don't remember which, but it was said that the Disguiser could, under the right circumstances, help shield the Consig from the Spy. E.g., in a game with no Janitor/where there are likely to be names in wills, which I expect most Ranked games are, the Disguiser can visit a living person. The Consig can then simply say "They are (role)" and the Spy has no way of knowing who is who.

Though, your approach is more optimal. I admit I've never played Ranked, so I've never tried that tactic out in that environment.
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby PuppetStrings » Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:30 am

Tiltedcomedian wrote:I'd add onto this as well, which I saw in another thread here. I don't remember which, but it was said that the Disguiser could, under the right circumstances, help shield the Consig from the Spy. E.g., in a game with no Janitor/where there are likely to be names in wills, which I expect most Ranked games are, the Disguiser can visit a living person. The Consig can then simply say "They are (role)" and the Spy has no way of knowing who is who.

Though, your approach is more optimal. I admit I've never played Ranked, so I've never tried that tactic out in that environment.


It also tells the spy the name of a non-guilty person. I don't think it's worthy.
Sorry for the bad English >.<

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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Tiltedcomedian » Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:43 am

PuppetStrings wrote:
Tiltedcomedian wrote:I'd add onto this as well, which I saw in another thread here. I don't remember which, but it was said that the Disguiser could, under the right circumstances, help shield the Consig from the Spy. E.g., in a game with no Janitor/where there are likely to be names in wills, which I expect most Ranked games are, the Disguiser can visit a living person. The Consig can then simply say "They are (role)" and the Spy has no way of knowing who is who.

Though, your approach is more optimal. I admit I've never played Ranked, so I've never tried that tactic out in that environment.


It also tells the spy the name of a non-guilty person. I don't think it's worthy.


People come up with strange names, but I have yet to see someone use the name "They".
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby PuppetStrings » Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:26 am

Tiltedcomedian wrote:
PuppetStrings wrote:
Tiltedcomedian wrote:I'd add onto this as well, which I saw in another thread here. I don't remember which, but it was said that the Disguiser could, under the right circumstances, help shield the Consig from the Spy. E.g., in a game with no Janitor/where there are likely to be names in wills, which I expect most Ranked games are, the Disguiser can visit a living person. The Consig can then simply say "They are (role)" and the Spy has no way of knowing who is who.

Though, your approach is more optimal. I admit I've never played Ranked, so I've never tried that tactic out in that environment.


It also tells the spy the name of a non-guilty person. I don't think it's worthy.


People come up with strange names, but I have yet to see someone use the name "They".

Night 1, the Disguiser visits Napoleon Bonaparte, the GF kills George W Bush and the Consig investigates Myself.

The Spy now know that Napoleon Bonaparte, George W Bush and Myself are not mafia, only one of them is dead (hopefully).

Night 2, Consig says "it's jailor". He refears to Myself, of course, and the Spy doesn't know it, but he knows that Napoleon is not mafia, and that's a lot.
Sorry for the bad English >.<

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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Elastoid » Thu Mar 26, 2015 7:54 am

I updated the post to include role guides. A lot of meaty, nitty-gritty advice in there -- well worth a read.
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Elastoid » Thu Mar 26, 2015 10:18 am

Exacerbated wrote:Excellent work. This guide should really see more attention that it has already.

Also, I think another essential strategy for Mafia to learn is how to distance from each other without it looking like it is staged and in a way where it doesn't compromise the Mafia's interests.

If you can split the possible Mafia worlds apart, you can run Town around in circles and can even buy yourself Town cred if you pull it off correctly in case you have to eventually bus somebody.

An advanced strategy is to buddy up with other Townies and make them look implicated when you flip scum to those who are looking for associative tells later in the game.

i.e. There was myself (Mafioso), the Janitor, the Godfather, and a Sheriff, Survivor, and Veteran. I posed as an Investigator. I found a Sheriff and we shared information, whispering to each other the entire game. Godfather made me face check the unknown Veteran on alert and flipped scum. The Sheriff was immediately put under suspicion and was mislynched by the town. Survivor ended up helping us lynch the Veteran.


You often say intelligent things but I rarely am able to read your whole post cause I'm mesmerized by your avatar.

It's like, Boxxy-esque in its hypnotic wonder.
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby iEsdeath » Thu Mar 26, 2015 10:46 am

Wow. I had finished reading these and now it makes a lot of sense. I may try some of these just to confirm whether these work or not, but I can tell that this took a lot of effort to actually go into detail, so I applaud you on that. ;)

/applauds
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Elastoid » Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:54 am

So I want to share a mafia win I played because it worked so simply and it shows how easily active mafias can win games.

I'll start off by saying we were incredibly lucky. We had GF-Consig-BM, and I (the Consig) found the Jailor the first night, while the GF's first kill is the Investigator. Very lucky.

That said, this is a MAYOR GAME (Dun dun DUNNNN) so of course town is going to win, right? RIGHT?

So day 2 I observe a player, Toot, whispering to the Jailor. The Mayor reveals himself and people start whispering roles, I choose Lookout. That night, I check Toot and he turns out to be an Investigator. Meanwhile, we blackmail the Mayor and kill the Jailor.

I deduce (obviously) that Toot investigated the Jailor and was whispering him for that reason.

Okay, so day 3, I start out by whispering Toot (before deaths are fully announced), saying "You visited [the Jailor] night 1, what's your role?" And Toot responds, "Invest, he's Jailor, Lookout or BG." Mayor can't do anything because he's blackmailed, so he can't even call out the people who didn't whisper him. (BLACKMAILING MAYORS IS A VERY STRONG RESPONSE.) Then Toot calls out that our Blackmailer is Spy or Blackmailer and calls for spy check. Unfortunately, he runs out of time before it can be confirmed.

Night 3 Toot dies to a Veteran while we kill a random -- turned out to be Survivor. I'm witched, so we know there is a witch on the team. Toot's will calls out our Blackmailer, but also says "Elastoid is confirmed town you can trust."

I just want to stress to town... DO NOT USE THOSE WORDS LIGHTLY. I made an educated guess and was then on a "confirmed town." We were way ahead at this point, but could have been farther behind and still won.

Now, I say we know there is Witch, and I watched [the Blackmailer] on night 2 and he wasn't visited... so Toot must have been witched and investigated someone else. This was sort of a stretch, but it delayed the vote long enough to keep our Blackmailer alive.

The next night, a Bodyguard died protecting me from the Werewolf, who also died. Of COURSE the Bodyguard protected me -- I was confirmed town, after all, and the Mayor, blackmailed, was all but forgotten. I found a the Witch that night.

That day, we agreed that the Bodyguard was awesome, and then there were no leads. I was confirmed as the only investigative role left, so the town was essentially looking to me for guidance, and that's why the town was doomed to lose. I touched base with a few people, whispering here and there, mostly to be seen whispering. More on that later.

I whispered the Witch and gave him a target to send at the Veteran (who had been found earlier when he killed Toot). The point of telling him whom to target wasn't necessarily to get a kill, although that would have been gravy. It was to ensure that he didn't fuck with the mafia by mistake.

I said I watched the Mayor and he was visited twice. Once by "a confirmed Bodyguard" and another time by the actual Bodyguard. This allowed me to frame the real Bodyguard as the Blackmailer. We lynched the Bodyguard.

I want to talk about this play for a moment. First, it was possible for me to say someone was "a confirmed Bodyguard" because I had been seen whispering multiple targets. People didn't know who the Bodyguard was supposed to be, but they understood why I wouldn't reveal the name. That, plus my status as a "confirmed town" allowed me to get the lynch, but more, I could have had two lynches. I lynched the guy I knew was the Bodyguard, but once he was revealed to be Bodyguard, I said, "Oh shit, so the confirmed Bodyguard was lying." I then could have had the town lynch another target, saying he claimed Bodyguard and must be the actual Blackmailer.

The point is, I didn't just succeed in getting a town lynched, I succeeded in getting a town lynched while still appearing innocent myself. The Mayor's protection stripped, it was an easy cleanup game, but if it were a closer game, I was still prepared to play and win.

At no point in the game did I need to make a high-risk play, mostly because we were incredibly lucky in finding two high-priority targets in the first night. That said, keep in mind how important active play is. The game was won when I was "confirmed town" by the dead Investigator, and with the Mayor blackmailed, I became the defacto town leader. I was able to do this with an educated guess (that Toot visited the Jailor the first night), which I turned into a false confirmation. These plays are how mafia win games -- play the part of town better than the real townies.
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Elastoid » Sat Mar 28, 2015 10:32 am

Statistics hang at over 70% mafia wins since I started tracking.
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Gobln » Sat Mar 28, 2015 10:41 am

Elastoid wrote:Statistics hang at over 70% mafia wins since I started tracking.

How many games have you played if you dont mind me asking? How many town wins too.
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Exacerbated » Sat Mar 28, 2015 8:56 pm

I think principle 5 should be #1 on this list. It is the most important advice. Or maybe you are a "save the best for last" kind of guy?
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Elastoid » Sun Mar 29, 2015 5:50 am

Exacerbated wrote:I think principle 5 should be #1 on this list. It is the most important advice. Or maybe you are a "save the best for last" kind of guy?

Partly, but also the clock is an important principle because it basically determines all your goals and how many risks you take. It's more a basic concept than a strategic principle.

I do agree that principle 5 is the most direct, uncomplicated, effective way most mafia can improve their game, but if people learn only how to be active and not what kind of risks they should take, and how to tell what play is the right one... they will often flail around and lose because of it.

I see really dumb plays. I was on a mafia team where the Godfather and Mafioso agreed to wait a day to kill... WHILE I WAS IN JAIL. Um... why? I lost two days as Consig (jailed the second night) because the guys didn't kill, and I had to talk the Jailor out of killing me out of dumb suspicion. They were making a play, and a wrong one.
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Elastoid » Sun Mar 29, 2015 5:56 am

Mightyputty wrote:Just had one game where I let the survivor live, only to see him vote with the town just because "the jailor let him live." Makes no sense, given that mafia had every right to kill the survivor, but didn't. Just because jailor didn't kill is no reason for him to vote town.

Sometimes, you just have to kill the survivor as mafia, simply since they want to "reverse" the trend of survivor voting mafia. Such hypocrites. They just want to win. They don't care about "principle" of town vs mafia voting.

Making the loss worse was the fact that the town were dumb the entire game, especially the jailor. I lied as sheriff and I lasted the whole game, only to see the survivor kingpin the town for the aforementioned reason. What else can mafia do? They only have 2 or 3 late game. They need votes from anywhere. Town didn't, and they didn't take the opportunities they were given.

In any game where the Survivor refuses to swap to mafia, you need to make a quick assessment -- can you win without him? If the mafia are all discovered, you can't win a 3-3-1 situation without Survivor -- he'll kill one during the day, you kill one at night, then it's 2-2-1 and the same situation until 1-1-1 and Survivor kings town. If that's the situation, and you cannot win, you need to make the METAGAME PLAY:

Kill the Survivor. Go after him every night. You will probably lose a kill on his vest, but he might not have the vests to make it to the end -- a lot of Survivors vest nights 1 and/or 2. You're sending a message to all Survivors for later in the game -- unlike the town, the mafia don't need votes to kill you. You want to king town, fine, but you do so at your own loss.

Doing that only a few times solidifies mafia as the correct side to go to for Survivor. You can't risk it. Maybe they have a Consort and rb/kill you. They lose and you lose too. Siding with mafia will always be safer then.
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Rossendale » Sun Mar 29, 2015 6:02 am

This is a reaaaaaaaaaaaally nice guide. I didn't realize just how many things I was doing wrong as Mafia. Next time I play as Mafia, I'll be sure to keep this guide open and use some of the strategies outlined. Thanks for your work :)
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Gobln » Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:52 am

I forgot to mention.

This is a really, really, really, clean guide. Its very well-written and i think everyone should read it.
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby ChirpingMatt » Sun Mar 29, 2015 12:06 pm

I really want to thank you and everybody else who posts these sorts of things because it is totally changing the way I play and think about the game.

I just came out of a Ranked game where our Veteran had unluckily killed 3 of our own Town members, but Town still won somehow, and I'm starting to realize that these things are happening because so many Mafias are not playing well.

I was Jailor that game. n1 I jailed someone who claimed Lookout, but then both investigatives died to the Veteran and it was revealed we had two witches, so I knew he was lying instantly. He turned out to be Godfather. That was just unlucky, it wasn't his fault.

From day 3 on, we knew that the Any role was taken and that both investigatives and both supports were dead at that point, as well as one of our protectives. The only valid claims at the point anymore were Doc/BG or Amne/Surv, since we knew who the outed veteran was. I switch my tactics as Jailor and instead of asking people's roles before I decide to kill them, I just press execute and tell them to convince me otherwise, since I know the only valid claims are Doctor/BG or the Neutral Benign.

n3 I got a witch who had correctly claimed Doctor, but when I prompted them for who they had healed, they couldn't tell me, so I know they're lying. That's an example of the Witch not being active in framing the lie they chose to tell.

n4 I get another person who just admits to being a witch, so I kill them too, but unfortunately there's two mafia left and I'm out of executes (Vet actually got the Arso dead earlier)

Now here's the thing: There are six of us left, including the known Veteran who is now out of alerts, but I know who the mafia is, and the reason I know is because the other two had been blackmailed on earlier nights. I really look back on this as the Mafia misplay that ruined their chances to win, because not only was their blackmailing pointless since they were only a protective and a Neutral Benign, it revealed to everyone that they weren't mafia.

But even icing on the cake, they weren't actively crafting a lie to make, because when prompted for roles, they claimed Escort and Sheriff, despite the only possible roles left being Doc/BG or Amne/Survivor.

n5 I jail one, hoping he's mafioso to stop his attack, but unfortunately I chose wrong and die, but now everybody knows who the two mafia are and proceed to lynch them. (Because thankfully the Amnesiac sided with us. I don't think he appreciated being blackmailed.)


Thanks to threads and discussion like this, I'm now thinking about the game differently and realizing that there are so many games I have been in where the only reason the mafia lost is because they played badly through and through (other than the GF who just got unlucky that he was forced to lie early and his lie was discovered almost instantly).
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby TheDeltax » Sun Mar 29, 2015 12:07 pm

This guide is very good, i think it's the best mafia guide on the forum right now.

It has just one incorrectness:
If a Transporter says "I'll prove it, I'll trans you tonight," and you roleblock him, he may get lynched. Of course, he'll SAY he was roleblocked, but if this is the first time you roleblocked ANYONE, then his claim is really difficult to believe.

Transporters are immune to roleblocks.
Maybe you can change it with a Retri, or perhaps a Vigi?
It's not a big inaccuracy at all, it was just to point out to you. :)
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby ChirpingMatt » Sun Mar 29, 2015 1:02 pm

Okay, I just got out of a second straight Ranked game today where Town won primarily because Mafia played badly.

I am a Medium named Rat (from Pearls Before Swine if anyone reads that comic strip). In this game, we not only had 2 Mediums...we also had a Retributionist.

So here's the situation: It's day 3, Jailor and Lookout are dead, and Lookout's last will said he was watching someone, and that person reveals to the town "I was doused last night." Normally someone in that situation would say "If we have a Medium, ask the Lookout who visited me," but instead he says "Jailor, find out from the Lookout who visited me." I don't know if there could possibly be a stronger hint that this person was a Retributionist.

And a little more context, I had been jailed n1 and told the Jailor I was a Medium (This was in his last will as well). So when I see him tonight I refer to myself by name and figure out who visited the Retributionist just in case things go haywire. Things go fine, Ret brings back the Jailor, and we nail the Arsonist. On an earlier day someone had claimed Medium, so I whisper to Jailor "You should probably kill that person since we know who the two Supports are." and he whispers back "No, there were two Mediums talking to us. That person is legit."

Here's the kicker about the whole situation. Mafia had a Consort and would have been able to block the Ret that night. How did I know? They roleblocked ME instead. So the mafia, instead of roleblocking the guy who very clearly hinted that he was a Retributionist about to bring back the Jailor, roleblocked me, the guy who they saw in the jailors will claims to be a Medium. It boggles the mind. :roll:

Now I'll make the rest of the story short, we now have 4 confirmed Town members, Jailor, Ret (he announced it since he was an arguably useless kill now and so that nobody else could claim to be it later), and the 2 Mediums, myself included. But what the mafia does is start killing off everyone else, and push the angle that I'm not actually a Medium. This was dumb for 2 big reasons: 1) By killing off all the non-confirmed town instead of the confirmed ones, they're getting rid of the leeway they have to lie about their role, only making it easier to pinpoint them. 2) Do they forget that Jailor was dead for a night, and SAW ME TALKING TO HIM?!?! Pushing the angle that I lied was just about the dumbest thing they could try to do.

So the 4 confirmed Townies working together wipe out the mafia rather easily. This whole game highlights this idea that Mafia are losing so much, not because Town is overpowered like so many people say, but that so many Mafias are playing terribly. If they Mafia had been playing and thinking more actively, they could have stopped the Ret from bringing back the Jailor, and they could have killed the confirmed Ret and 2 Mediums so that they leave the non-confirmed roles alive so that they can at least try to frame a lie about their role. (This is such a common mistake for mafia. Don't kill the people whose role the Town hasn't confirmed. You're just helping Town narrow in on you faster.)
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Elastoid » Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:40 am

TheDeltax wrote:This guide is very good, i think it's the best mafia guide on the forum right now.

It has just one incorrectness:
If a Transporter says "I'll prove it, I'll trans you tonight," and you roleblock him, he may get lynched. Of course, he'll SAY he was roleblocked, but if this is the first time you roleblocked ANYONE, then his claim is really difficult to believe.

Transporters are immune to roleblocks.
Maybe you can change it with a Retri, or perhaps a Vigi?
It's not a big inaccuracy at all, it was just to point out to you. :)

Ugh I keep forgetting that detail and I don't know why.

Actually, I do know why. That happened, and I rb the Transporter, but he was REALLY roleblocked by the Jailor, who jailed one of his targets. That didn't come out until much later, so for a while I thought I'd succeeded and only later discovered (from Jailor's will) why that happened and that Transporters were immune to roleblocks.

*sigh* I'm fixing it. Thanks for pointing it out.
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Elastoid » Tue Mar 31, 2015 1:06 am

UPDATE: Added 6th principle. It started out as an angry rant about a previous mafia teammate, but I guess the mistake is common enough that it belongs in my guide.
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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby PuppetStrings » Tue Mar 31, 2015 1:23 am

I actually think that the sixth "principle" will help a more of people than the other ones (individually, at least), because it actually gives a lot of situations that some people can relate, that we have seen in-game a lot of times from our team members, enemies and from ourselves when we were newbies.
Don't get me wrong, I think that the clock and the chaos principles are great (in fact, this one is the chaos principle, sort of), but the sixth one will be more solid to some people than the previous ones.
Sorry for the bad English >.<

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Re: Elastoid's Guide to Mafia Wins

Postby Elastoid » Tue Mar 31, 2015 1:27 am

PuppetStrings wrote:I actually think that the sixth "principle" will help a more of people than the other ones (individually, at least), because it actually gives a lot of situations that some people can relate, that we have seen in-game a lot of times from our team members, enemies and from ourselves when we were newbies.
Don't get me wrong, I think that the clock and the chaos principles are great (in fact, this one is the chaos principle, sort of), but the sixth one will be more solid to some people than the previous ones.

Agreed. The 1st and 2nd Principles are all about the theory behind the plays, but the 6th one is much more about actual application. Really, it's less an individual principle and more an application of the previous ones, but for those that don't want to think about the complex ideas behind the plays, it gives a more basic rule to follow.
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