by FirstToGetThisName » Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:45 am
Anyways, I've been working out the math.
Sorcerer, I'm sorry, but you've lost. Don't shoot the messenger. Instead, consider it your just reward for being too hasty to eliminate The Swan.
During the challenge phase, The Caterpillar will challenge The Gorilla, only to be denied.
Then, I will do the same, leaving The Gorilla with 2 gift reserves.
During the dinner phase, we shall guess out The Narwhal, and I shall poison The Caterpillar, forcing them to take Premium Food, leaving them with no Guess Immunity and 1 Deny. The Gorilla will then redeem a free guess, and guess The Caterpillar as The Cheater.
Then, the Caterpillar will challenge The Gorilla once more, only to be denied with The Gorilla's last gift reserve. I will then challenge the Gorilla, and claim one more gift for myself. Using this gift, I shall buy guess immunity, then poison and DSG The Caterpillar after voting out The Gorilla.
I cannot guarantee any of you will agree to this plan, but I can guarantee any defectors will not reach the throne.
If I find myself in a situation where both of you have betrayed me simultaneously, and I am forced to choose one to crown, I will choose The Caterpillar. This is to account for unforseen methods of defecting, such as collectively forgetting to buy Guess Immunity.
Narwhal, there is little you can do to intervene in this. You can challenge the Caterpillar to get them an additional gift, but you will not be able to redeem yours before you are voted out of the game. The additional gift The Caterpillar has can only stop me from finishing them off in one of the two ways mentioned in my grand finale, but it cannot prevent their demise. Challenging The Gorilla will only result in them denying you, which will leave them one gift short down the line. This translates to an undenied challenge from The Caterpillar, granting them one gift and leading to the same conclusion as before. Challenging me will remove my deny, but nowhere in my plan have I used my deny.
The worst that can happen from removing my deny is that immediately after this happens, The Caterpillar challenges me, forcing me to accept. The gift they receive as a result will be used to protect them from poisoning. In the meantime, you, with no Guess Immunity, will be DSGed by The Gorilla, leaving a 2 reserve, 2 deny Gorilla up against a 1 (useless) deny, 1 reserve Caterpillar (They safely forwent getting Guess Immunity). The Gorilla will use 1 deny on the challenge phase, then buy JUST Guess Immunity in the Voting Phase. They then see if The Caterpillar had bought Guess Immunity, and buy a Free Guess only if they had not. Now, The Caterpillar is either missing their credibility or their reserve, and they get denied once more. The Gorilla buys Guess Immunity and a deny, and by the end of the dinner phase, The Caterpillar should be disarmed of their credibility and their reserve, while The Gorilla has but a single deny left. They deny once again, and buy Guess Immunity the next dinner phase, and DSG The Caterpillar.
TLDR; Close fight, but The Caterpillar cannot win solely with your assistance. Apologies.
On the off chance that The Gorilla happens to be the pharmacist... oops.