Secret Hitler! (FASCISTS WIN!) "HEIL!"

[UzayAltay]

The only thing that unfortunately broke was my understanding of how votes worked. Transport told me that, even if I hadn't opened his vote yet, he couldn't switch votes without sending a new Private Message from scratch, which is absolutely infuriating since the Forums tells you exactly the opposite.

So I would probably find a different way to run votes. Probably discord. Something that would allow people an easier way to change their mind about voting before everyone else has voted, because players should be allowed to do that.

As Moore as You didnt open it , it should be changable .
Actually , Let's test that , I am Sending You A message now , Dont Open it , I Will say when I EDIT it .

[UzayAltay]

I sent You one .
Can You confirm You took one ? ( Dont open it )

[Rickdaily12]

I sent You one .
Can You confirm You took one ? ( Dont open it )

Right now, I've opened my Inbox to see that I've received any messages, specifically a vote for Secret Hitler.

I haven't opened your message yet, just looked to see if I received anything.

This apparently renders it impossible to edit now that I'd done this.

[Rickdaily12]

do you want to hear of a spicy play?
elect one of trans/chemist
because hitler would not create conflict and put themself in a position where they are unlikely to be elected

i agree that chancellor should be inside the conflicts and president should be outside

i prefer ttr/transport out of the conflict people

i feel like chem is trying to make us doubt the trustworthy ttr

This was also pretty unfortunate, the Liberals had the right idea initially about how to make decisions in Hitler Zone, and unfortunately it didn't quite go as planned.

(Experienced Hitlers who know how to conflict more daringly and safely can counter this tactic, but it's still risky as shit if they end up not getting elected. Liberals STILL have a decent way of figuring out that, if Hitler did conflict, where he would be least likely to appear among all of the conflicted players- and get it right most of the time.)

[UzayAltay]

I sent You one .
Can You confirm You took one ? ( Dont open it )

Right now, I've opened my Inbox to see that I've received any messages, specifically a vote for Secret Hitler.

I haven't opened your message yet, just looked to see if I received anything.

This apparently renders it impossible to edit now that I'd done this.

Yeah I realized problem now
it seems really A problem

[TimeToReap]

Zzz
I got forced to play liberals.

Glad we pulled through.
Sorry Chem.

[timurtheking]

I told you all!

[heytheregirl17]

Let's add that page to the book of things I saw coming

[TimeToReap]

I told you all!

didnt say yourself or me.



zzz noob

[Multiuniverse]

Rip
Sorry guys for my flawed decision making

[TimeToReap]

zzz

F for me for not getting a mention for being a good fascist.

I leaned as far right as I could that I fell off my chair and you repay me with this? disgraceful.

[Multiuniverse]

This is a scenario of
"Scum played bad and town played worst"
I have NFMNFM flashbacks

[Chemist1422]

Rip
Sorry guys for my flawed decision making

to be fair at least you made decisions

[Rickdaily12]

zzz

F for me for not getting a mention for being a good fascist.

I leaned as far right as I could that I fell off my chair and you repay me with this? disgraceful.

I mean, in complete fairness, your position was bad. It was hardly your fault.

But from your viewpoint, if Multi didn't force you, he probably drew LFF. Which would normally be fine, if you weren't going to force Hitler to be a bigger fascist than you.

Experience says, if you're a Regular Fascist, and you plan on conflicting people, do it sooner rather than later- especially if it allows Hitler to look better.

You didn't nein Hitler when she was President. I don't know what the rest of your team was thinking when they did that. Utterly insane.

[GrumpyGoomba]

I mainly didn't conflict to not create suspicion that early into the game. Looks like that had the opposite effect xD

[dota2reporter]

i told you i roll town even outside of forum mafia ahaha

ttr was a deepwolf tho, gj

[transportowiec96]

My own rant:
Spoiler: First of all don't blame people for not seeing how the deck is stacked Ricky boi

People assumed that everyone who plays liberal policies is "confirmed blue"
Around half of the people had half the amount of my posts (or even less), I'd like to award BRVR the award for the smallest amount of posts, when playing a role and a game where you should speak a lot
Then there were the two quiet fascists:
Tim, who started doing stuff only later in the game, award to him named Most Quiet and Prodded Fascist
Grumpy whose a third of the posts (and the total is third of my posts) was fluff
Then theres HTG and Chemist
Chemist started speaking more only after getting into a conflict
HTG spoke more balanced, but still a little

Confirming someone blue because they play blues is stupid. You should instead confirm people by voting. My presidency was neined by 4 reds, and had I drawn the last blue, I would've been able to prove myself blue so hard and wagoned to victory so hard. But I couldn't, because I didn't draw it, making myself the 'leader' would make me only very suspicious. If Alba's presidency would be ja'd, therefore they could've also drawn the last blue and discarded it. If a deck was stacked with reds, then presidents are to blame. The only acceptable choice was Grumpy in my opinion. People were set on TTR being blue, had I chosen him and conflicted him, people would just suspect me more. The only other viable choices were Dota/Chemist/Tim.

I'd like to make a proposal if you host it again:
5 posts per day. (and possibly increase the amount after 3 red plays)
If people do not make any posts in a 24 hr span, double prod them.
If people make some, but not enough, only prod them.
That is the only way that I see to force people speak up.



Answers to Ricks "What people did wrong"
Spoiler:

1. Liberals (especially transportowiec96) neining people as often as they did before Hitler Zone.
(Reason: Skipping people instead of allowing people to play before Hitler Zone gives you minimal information when you're going to need it later.)

Skipping people allows you to get more votes. Having more government phases allows you to pick up one extra voting for every policy. Then you decide between the 2nd or the 3rd president.

(Reason 2: transportowiec96 came under heavy suspicion for unnecessary overuse of neins.)
(Consequence: Hitler did not draw FFF. She probably would not have been Ja-ed. Again, transport came under suspicion for this.)

True, I got under suspicion for neining, but that basically could have confirmed me blue but people don't see the importance of votes.
GP1: My nein was the only nein (the rest were afks)
GP3 :Again
GP4: Only 1 other nein (from Hitler who doesn't know)
GP5: Split votes (and I must say pretty good job there reds)
GP7: Everyone neined because BRVR doesn't defend from assumptions
GP8: "Time is such a confirmed town". That doesn't work that well, the only other nein was from Hitler and HTG
GP9: Game end cuz everyone knows how Alba is "town". Yea, totally, confirmed town
Basically this proved that I was either town or hitler
The only issue with me was that I didn't draw red when I was one blue away from leading all blues

2. GrumpyGoomba not claiming LFF instead of FFF with a Liberal Chancellor.
(Reason: You had 2 other Fascist Presidents in this deck who will probably toss blues. You can overclaim a Blue to make dota look bad.)
(Consequence: More suspicion on GrumpyGoomba rather than dota2reporter.)

Overclaiming blue would've been a dangerous play. Had they overclaimed blue, I would've peeked at them (because that way I could've resolved the conflict Grumpy vs Dota, knocking out Grumpy or if we got the "7th blue" then their lie would fall apart.

3. GrumpyGoomba not claiming BRVR was a Fascist on the peek.
(Reason: You didn't conflict Dota. Now you don't conflict BRVR. In case you didn't notice, FOUR CONSECUTIVE LIBERAL PRESIDENTS were after AlbanixAnubibus.)
(Consequence: EVEN MORE suspicion on GrumpyGoomba. 4 Consecutive Liberal Presidents incoming after Hitler. Absolutely disasterous.)

Making conflicts as reds is pretty darn important, I agree here. The more attention you can steer away from Hitler, the better.

4. Multiuniverse not picking timurtheking, BRVR, or AlbanixAnubibus.
(Objection: I'll be fair. Albanix was about to be President. BRVR was peeked as Liberal, however-)
(Reason: Not picking a player who had not seen a government put them as informationless during Hitler Zone.)
(Consequence: Liberals, specifically BRVR, not having enough obviousness at Hitler Zone as Liberal because you didn't let her play. She was checked Liberal.)

Being peeked at by opposing color usually will render your own peek invalid. But I'd say BRVR should've talked more. If you let people assume what they want, you're going to knocked out of deliberation.

5. Multiuniverse not forcing LL when he drew LLF.
(Objection: I'll be fair. Choicing there vs TTR, a President who went blue, is one of the rare times choicing might have been acceptable. This said, you forget:)
(Reason: By Choicing TTR, you allow him to look more Liberal than you if he passes the Liberal policy.)
(Reason 2: If TTR picked Fascist, yes, he all but outs himself as Fascist- but he would have triggered Hitler Zone even sooner. You STILL don't look Liberal for this.)
(Consequence: TTR looking extremely Liberal instead of Multiuniverse.)

The only bad thing here really, was overuse of one person (namely, TTR), which is usually a nein in my books (unless you've no other choice)

6. TimeToReap not playing Fascist on LF.
(Objection: You were worried about throwing away your Liberal cred, and that Multi was likely to peek Albanix or timur- which yes, he really SHOULD, but-)
(Reason: You played the 3rd Liberal policy. For all you knew, Multi drew LFF. That's a 4 blue deck FYPOV. That means there's two more coming, and you played Blue.)
(Reason 2: Multi might not peek Albanix or Timur. When Albanix becomes President, you all but force her to become a Red President. You're her Fascist. She's Hitler.)
(Consequence: You risked too much here. Liberals had a great chance to win by policies. Hitler must look less Liberal now. You won; this was still a mistake.)

Self explanatory

7. The Fascists neining AlbanixAnubibus.
(Reason: WHY DO THIS?! She picked timurtheking as her Chancellor! He can signal her!)
(Reason 2: FOUR CONSECUTIVE LIBERAL PRESIDENTS WERE GOING TO FOLLOW HER! SHE WAS YOUR ONLY HOPE AT PUTTING UP ANOTHER GUARENTEED RED!)
(Consequence: This REALLY should have been losing on the spot. Fascists got VERY lucky that Transport missed the last blue. Otherwise, Liberals just win.)

Depends on the draw

8. The Liberals neining AlbanixAnubibus.
(Reason: Again, you lost information on her for nothing. More or less an echoing of Mistake 1, but this should really should have passed.)
(Consequence: Loss of information on Albanix that the Liberals really needed. Transport draws FFF in her place and looks worse than her now.)

True, but luck of the draw.

9. transportowiec96 using his Peek power on GrumpyGoomba.
(Reason: Did you not notice that this deck had only 4 claimed blues? You and Grumpy are the only Red Presidents of a 4 Blue deck. FYPOV, he's probably just Fascist.)
(Reason 2: You should have peeked Grumpy if you thought there was a good chance a Blue president tossed. You didn't. The deck has a 11% chance of LL being on bottom.)
(Consequence: A weak use of the peek power. Grumpy/transport are almost always LvF here, so more information on anyone else would have been stronger.)

11%. That's very frickin unlikely. Therefore it was a good idea to investigate Grumpy, cuz I disregarded the angleshooting. That shouldn't have happened therefore I put it out of my mind, and imagined that they only claimed FFF, without the removal part. Therefore it was a good idea to peek at them, in case I just got plain unlucky and so did they. The other good choices of peeks were Chemist/Dota/Tim

10. The Liberals assuming that BRVR was Fascist because transportowiec96 conflicted with GrumpyGoomba.
(Reason: This was just terrible. Multi was the only person who had his head on right about this. BRVR was never involved in the Grumpy/transport conflict. Ever.)
(Reason 2: Even if Grumpy isn't Liberal, Hitler claims people Liberal on Peek a LOT of the time. You never should have assumed anything about her when they conflicted.)
(Consequence: You locked out a Liberal from the game for zero reasons. Worse, you locked out a LIBERAL PEEK from the game. Why???)

If there's a conflict on the second peek, it kinda rendered the first invalid, as long as there was no defense from the peeked-on person. BRVR didn't even bother. Here's where you should be asking "WHY?".

11. The Liberals neining BRVR.
(Reason: I already covered most of this in Reason 10. Assuming her to be Fascist was just bad. But worse- now Chemist has to conflict with TTR instead of her.)
(Consequence: Fascists freeze two Liberals for absolute damn free when TTR conflicts Chemist.)

As above. BRVR didn't defend from assumptions.

12. Multiuniverse choosing AlbanixAnubibus as Chancellor in Hitler Zone.
(Objection: No, seriously. This is not moderator confirmation bias because I know she's Hitler. You really shouldn't have picked her.)
(Reason: Multi, your reason for the pick was ugh. She's posting game summaries? That means she's experienced at the game. Easily fake-able as Fascist or Hitler.)
(Reason 2: Liberals should have neined because you're in Hitler Zone. Albanix did NOTHING all game. No-Info people should be made President BEFORE Chancellor, if at all.)
(Consequence: Hitler got elected as Chancellor, and the Fascists won.)

The blues were already set in stone that Alba was blue. If even two blues trust a Hitler, you basically win. Here it was more than 2. 4 to be exact. The worst part was that liberals weren't using neins more often (and you even say that I overused neins, where I didn't. ), making the amount of votes to be read smaller.

[TimeToReap]

I made the risky play because I didn’t trust Tim to be able to win this solo.
He spent half the game with throwing by trying to tell Multi not to elect Alba.

[Rickdaily12]

I made the risky play because I didn’t trust Tim to be able to win this solo.
He spent half the game with throwing by trying to tell Multi not to elect Alba.

And they Liberal read him anyway. I agree he was playing extremely poorly from an objective viewpoint as an experienced player of sorts myself, but all that ultimately matters is how good Hitler looks, and how dumb you make the Liberals trying to figure out what was going on.

So let me paint you the whole picture, TTR.

When you were handed LF, for all that you knew, Multi just drew the 4th blue. The final President left is Albanix. (At this point, you didn't know that Multi had actually drawn the 5th). When weighing the options of "should I throw myself under the bus here and conflict this Liberal", you should consider whether or not Hitler will look better for it or not.

Before you played that blue, you could probably gather that the odds of Albanix drawing a Liberal herself were probably rather high.

You can play the 2nd red NOW, possibly outting Timur along with you, but now you allow Albanix to become the Blue President of the 3rd Liberal policy. You also freeze a Liberal, and because he might conflict two Fascists- he'll probably come out of your conflict looking the worse of the two.

Or, play the 3rd blue. Then, make Albanix, your Hitler, choose, out of a 4 blue claimed deck, with Grumpy as the only other Red president, between playing the 4th Blue Policy to make herself look good, bringing the Fascists one step to death with FOUR Liberal Not-In-Conflict Presidents following her, or playing the 2nd red to stop the Fascists from going on the brink of death. She will probably want to play that blue regardless, and with 4 Liberals after her, it would have likely killed your team. Or, she plays red, and the only two Presidents responsible for Red policies are her, and Grumpy- one of her Fascists. She either has to start a card conflict, or a peek conflict, to avoid digging her grave by that point. Even then- perhaps that wouldn't save her either.

You exist, as a Fascist, to stop HER from making that kind of choice. You exist so that she wins by getting elected in Hitler Zone. It's your job to trigger HZ for her.

I'm not saying your choice was easy, or clear. I did not envy your position. Timur was acting weird, I get why you were worried. But if you have to choose between screwing over Hitler, or screwing over yourself and another Fascist- you chose the former. I think that you shouldn't have, based on what you knew at the time.

Because the fact was, you didn't know that Multi had actually drawn 2 blues. That changes a lot. Your choice came without that knowledge. It would have done Albanix some serious harm if Multi really did only draw 2 reds and a blue. Under the circumstances- you would have looked VERY BAD once Multi finally comes out and claims those two blues, but that was never part of your thought process for playing the Blue over the Red in the first place.

Oh- and, by the way. After you conflict with Multi, if Multi then checks Timur, who flips Fascist, and he kept screaming "ALBA IS FASCIST" all game before he got peeked as Fascist, what do you think Multi is going to think about her?

[TimeToReap]

Tim only started saying alba was fascist after the peek.
There was a high chance they just peeked alba and we lost.

[Rickdaily12]

Tim only started saying alba was fascist after the peek.
There was a high chance they just peeked alba and we lost.

You know, Fascists can still win even when Hitler gets peeked. Also, don't discount the concept that if people think timur is Fascist, and he constantly asks the Liberals to never pick Albanix in government, they going to ignore him.

TTR, if I were describe what you did in terms of a chess computer, I would describe your move as "inaccurate", rather than a "mistake" or a "blunder". I understand why you did what you did. I understand that you saw a crappy teammate as throwing Hitler under the bus, and being unsure of what to do next if you gave Multi a peek. But did timur ever really get better even after you played that blue?

With the information that you had... that Albanix would have to choose between playing the 4th Liberal Policy on track or the 2nd Fascist policy, and that she would probably be forced to go Fascist just to save your team- you put her in an equally as bad of a position as Timur. At least, that's what you WOULD have probably done, if Multi had drawn LFF rather than LLF.

You simply did not know that Multi drew two blues instead of one. My opinion is that he shouldn't have choiced you- but because he did, you needed to sacrifice yourself to stop Albanix from being a very Fascist looking Red President. As a Regular Fascist- you do not win by looking like a Liberal.

You win when Albanix- HITLER- looks like a Liberal.

Playing the Blue and forcing her to become a Red President is not how you do that. It's just as harmful as what timur was doing.

[Rickdaily12]

My responses to Transport's rant:

Spoiler:

First of all don't blame people for not seeing how the deck is stacked Ricky boi

For the record, the first deck was skewed heavily towards the Liberals. Fascists are either forced to become Blue Presidents, or they draw FFF. Hitler was one of the FFF's. Of course, I'm going to be the only one that knows this. Your lack of knowledge of this fact is NOT PART of the "reasons" I gave for critiquing certain game choices. I was explaining how it had a direct negative impact because of the "reason" being the antecedent of that "consequence".

IE:

1. Liberals (especially transportowiec96) neining people as often as they did before Hitler Zone.
(Reason: Skipping people instead of allowing people to play before Hitler Zone gives you minimal information when you're going to need it later.)

Had you skipped absolutely no one, Transport, you would have learned something more about Hitler, than literally nothing. In this case, she would have drawn 3 reds in a 4 Claimed Blue deck. My criticism of the Liberals in this game has everything to do with the fact that you never let Albanix play, so that you're left knowing literally nothing about her.

You were forced to meta read her instead. She's Hitler- she doesn't want to look like a Fascist. Guess what happens when you try meta reading a Hitler who hasn't done anything?

The mistake you made was allowing players to become info-less. The direct consequence of that mistake made Hitler even electable in this game, when she probably otherwise wouldn't have been. That's directly on everyone who neined as often as they did. You were very much one of those people in this game.

People assumed that everyone who plays liberal policies is "confirmed blue"
Around half of the people had half the amount of my posts (or even less), I'd like to award BRVR the award for the smallest amount of posts, when playing a role and a game where you should speak a lot
Then there were the two quiet fascists:
Tim, who started doing stuff only later in the game, award to him named Most Quiet and Prodded Fascist
Grumpy whose a third of the posts (and the total is third of my posts) was fluff
Then theres HTG and Chemist
Chemist started speaking more only after getting into a conflict
HTG spoke more balanced, but still a little

Confirming someone blue because they play blues is stupid. You should instead confirm people by voting. My presidency was neined by 4 reds, and had I drawn the last blue, I would've been able to prove myself blue so hard and wagoned to victory so hard. But I couldn't, because I didn't draw it, making myself the 'leader' would make me only very suspicious. If Alba's presidency would be ja'd, therefore they could've also drawn the last blue and discarded it. If a deck was stacked with reds, then presidents are to blame. The only acceptable choice was Grumpy in my opinion. People were set on TTR being blue, had I chosen him and conflicted him, people would just suspect me more. The only other viable choices were Dota/Chemist/Tim.

In their defenses, most players this game have played very few games of Secret Hitler to know the nuances in the meta. That said, they aren't completely wrong: If you instead say something like "People who play Liberal Policies are more likely to be Liberal than not", well now, you would certainly be right!

The only Fascist who wants to be playing Blues before Hitler Zone begins is Hitler. The other Regular Fascists want to put up as many reds as they can. Otherwise, they just become another Liberal player- and if they aren't Hitler, then they are actively working against their team's win conditions, which is hit 3 Fascist Policies ASAP. Fascists absolutely can never win until 3 F policies hit the track.

So when a Chancellor plays a Liberal Policy on a choice, they are probably not a Regular Fascist. They are much more likely to be Hitler or a Liberal. If they are a Regular Fascist, and it isn't Hitler Zone yet, then this Fascist is not helping their team, and they are helping the Liberals. This is true in pretty much every instance- only unless this Fascist is going to be the President within the next two turns. But in THIS case, why did you let a Chancellor pass when he was going to be the President so soon?

You can try to tell me that you learn nothing when a Chancellor plays Liberal on a choice. Or that the person who played the 3rd/4th Liberal Policies as President OR Chancellor isn't useful information. But this just isn't true. It doesn't CONFIRM them as Liberal, but it DOES almost certainly confirm that the players involved are NOT Regular Fascists- unless the Fascist in question was screwed by the deck, or just did not play their cards appropriately.

Because, if Regular Fascists do this instead of playing reds to begin Hitler Zone- well, this is how 5-0 Liberal Sweeps happen.

And in the case of TTR going 3rd Blue Chancellor on Choice- well, you already see why I tell him that I think that he handled that straight up wrong. And if you had just let Albanix play, transport, she would probably have been a Red President EVEN IF she drew LFF. You would have learned that if you didn't nein her. That was mechanical information you threw out the window that your team needed. You almost certainly would never have elected her.

Secret Hitler is a mechanical game, transport. Whenever players are involved in government, they are forced to spew their alignment in subtle ways. You cannot sit here and tell me that it was more useful for you to read people and guess at them being Liberal/Fascist- fact of the matter is, you thought TTR was Liberal and that BRVR was Fascist. You ALMOST Ja-ed Hitler. As I mentioned before, if you want to ignore being able to have mechanical information on someone in favor of your gut reads of people, that's Mafia. That's not Secret Hitler. If you want to play Secret Hitler exactly like it's Mafia, it is going to get you killed as you just saw.

...Look. As for the rest of this, I don't disagree that people should have posted more than they did. The Liberals just weren't active and theorycrafting enough. The Fascists did not have to effort all that much just to make them look bad. I don't think this is why the Liberals lost. I think they objectively made wrong interpretations about the mechanics in front of them that got them killed (as I outlined), and that low activity did not play that active of a role to aid in this. It certainly did not help them piece things correctly together. However, that being said: once Hitler Zone began, the number of pages in this thread shot up by nearly 50%. That's just how the game works. The actual part of the game begins when testing people no longer becomes safe. Pages 19-27 were only 24 hours apart.

That's how it goes. When there's nothing to go on, people don't put much out there. When the stakes raise, everyone gets involved. That's just how Pre-HZ works for you.

I'd like to make a proposal if you host it again:
5 posts per day. (and possibly increase the amount after 3 red plays)
If people do not make any posts in a 24 hr span, double prod them.
If people make some, but not enough, only prod them.
That is the only way that I see to force people speak up.

Find me 10 people who would play under these requirements and at least 5 willing people to stand by as replacements when I kick people out and I'll run this.
My specific responses to transport's rebuttals of my analysis:

Spoiler:

Skipping people allows you to get more votes. Having more government phases allows you to pick up one extra voting for every policy. Then you decide between the 2nd or the 3rd president.

I literally wrote up a 5-bullet response outlining all the ways that this just wastes time, so I'll just shorten it and give you the fast version.

If Neining first government is meta, then it's fucking useless. All you're doing is changing Presidential Order- otherwise it straight up does nothing. Otherwise, Fascists generally only care about Neining when a Liberal-Liberal government passing would result in them losing the game. That almost never happens outside of Hitler Zone, or outside of there being 4 Liberal Policies on the track (or some equal disasterous position, like your government with HTG).

If it's not Hitler Zone, and if Liberals are not about to win on the spot, vote information is absolutely useless right up until that point.

Skipping Players with zero intention of letting them play before Hitler Zone, on the other hand, as you just saw, is a typical leading cause of death among Liberal teams.

True, I got under suspicion for neining, but that basically could have confirmed me blue but people don't see the importance of votes.

This is not Avalon, transport. The meta is not the same here. I am telling you as a person who plays this game, not as your moderator, that I think your overuse of neins is not productive for the Liberals, especially when you are a Liberal yourself.

For the exact reason that, if you Nein vs a Liberal, they're going to suspect you, especially at the start of the damn game when people know nothing, because why else would you nein them unless if you knew they were Liberal? And it's easy to pass off as a Fascist as well. You blame the others for not valuing vote information enough, and I'm telling you- I'm quite sure you have it backwards, and you almost certainly do as far as the early-game is concerned.

Overclaiming blue would've been a dangerous play. Had they overclaimed blue, I would've peeked at them (because that way I could've resolved the conflict Grumpy vs Dota, knocking out Grumpy or if we got the "7th blue" then their lie would fall apart.

Making conflicts as reds is pretty darn important, I agree here. The more attention you can steer away from Hitler, the better.

First of all, these two statements are inconsistent. Either Grumpy should conflict as a Regular Fascist or he shouldn't. You can't ding me for one and agree with the other.

Second, no, it's not dangerous for Grumpy to overclaim blues when he sees that TTR and Albanix both have a turn at the deck before it reshuffles. When you have 3 Fascist/Hitler Presidents in a single deck, Liberal Policies are going to get discarded and left unclaimed. That's just how playing with a Fascist team works. That would make it perfectly safe for Grumpy to overclaim on blues.

Third, the only way to conflict with a player by drawing FFF is to overclaim. And as a Regular Fascist, if your Chancellor is Liberal, you're probably going to want to do that, as drawing AND claiming "FFF" all but guarantees that you will probably never be President ever again. So you might as well consider overclaiming blues just to freeze out a Liberal from the game- especially when you have two other teammates touching the deck, as above:

Finally, these complaints are jointed. Either he should have card conflicted Dota and not Peek conflicted BRVR, or vice versa. He could have conflicted with both, and while it might have had a desirable result for him, it probably more likely would have resulted in people Fascist reading him regardless. Doing neither is certainly the worst of all options- he absolves dota of all fault for the Red and tells everyone that BRVR is more Liberal than he is.

Being peeked at by opposing color usually will render your own peek invalid. But I'd say BRVR should've talked more. If you let people assume what they want, you're going to knocked out of deliberation.

No. And no.

Fascists will peek Liberals as Liberals on occasion. BRVR will play this game how she damn well pleases. You assumed. That was your error, not hers.

The only bad thing here really, was overuse of one person (namely, TTR), which is usually a nein in my books (unless you've no other choice)

Had Multi forced TTR instead, TTR isn't a Chancellor playing blue out of choice. This would make Chemist more likely to pick Multi over TTR.

But yes- I'm glad we're in agreement that Multi should have picked someone who had not seen a government- as above.

Self explanatory

Can't tell if you're agreeing with my analysis or not. TTR should absolutely have played the Fascist- it would have protected Hitler better than what he actually did.

Depends on the draw

No, it doesn't. The Fascists had a pretty good idea that 4-5 blues were already seen. The deck has a 40% chance of having FF on the bottom of the deck. A Liberal President and Chancellor after Albanix makes the policy track 4-1 in favor of the Liberals a whopping 2 every 5 times. Then there's another three Liberal Presidents after that- they only need one more Liberal Policy after that.

Neining Albanix from the Fascist POV was absolutely stupid. Totally losing. There's no other if ands or buts about it- there are just too many Liberals after her to not Ja her.

Case in point: You were the first Liberal after her. You chose a Liberal Chancellor. All of them neined. Had you drawn blue- they would have lost after 3 more Liberal Presidents.

True, but luck of the draw.

No, it wasn't. It was 3-1 in favor of the Liberals. Stop seeing things from the Liberal perspective and think about what Hitler would be forced to do there.

She's either forced to go Red and you wouldn't have elected her, or she goes Blue and hands you the game on a silver platter. Neining her was a mistake, through and through.

11%. That's very frickin unlikely. Therefore it was a good idea to investigate Grumpy, cuz I disregarded the angleshooting. That shouldn't have happened therefore I put it out of my mind, and imagined that they only claimed FFF, without the removal part. Therefore it was a good idea to peek at them, in case I just got plain unlucky and so did they. The other good choices of peeks were Chemist/Dota/Tim

Thank you for disregarding the angleshooting bit, as you should have. It won't be an issue in the future- it'll be known that I'll force your hand in future games.

Now. Let's talk strict mathematics. From your viewpoint, there are five other Liberals and four other Fascists. That gives everyone a base chance of 44% likihood of being a Fascist. BUT, in a 4 Blue Claimed deck, one of the Red Presidents almost certainly threw a blue away- unless you think one of the Blue Presidents tossed blue, and you didn't. You were a Red President- he was the other. That means, 89% of the time, he threw a blue away.

44% versus 89%. Grumpy literally had MORE THAN TWICE the statistical likihood from your POV of being a Fascist than any other person in the game.

Just assume that he's Fascist next time, and Peek someone else. You'll only be wrong 11% of the bloody time, and even then- he might still be a Fascist who just drew FFF.

If there's a conflict on the second peek, it kinda rendered the first invalid, as long as there was no defense from the peeked-on person. BRVR didn't even bother. Here's where you should be asking "WHY?".

As above. BRVR didn't defend from assumptions.

Look, man, I can't help you if your root assumption when a Fascist claims a Liberal Peek, then enters conflict with a different Liberal- is to assume that the Liberal Peek is part of the conflict. THIS ASSUMPTION IS WRONG. DO NOT MAKE IT. IT IS NOT FACTUAL.

BRVR didn't have to defend herself from anything because SHE WAS NOT IN THE CONFLICT. Multi told you that multiple times over. She even didn't pick a side in your conflict with Grumpy- as she shouldn't- Grumpy was a Red President Liberal Peeking her and you went Blue before, so she saw the world where Fascist or Hitler!GrumpyGoomba was trying to pocket her, or where you might be Fascist instead- and you ignored both Multi and her. She doesn't have to write a doctoral thesis giving irrefutable evidence that a Fascist checked her as Liberal when she's a Liberal.

You were wrong. Your attitude about Fascists claiming Liberal Peeks is wrong. I've seen it countless times over. Fascists will do it.

Do not. Just. Assume. The Fascist's Liberal Peek. As being part of your conflict.

You will lose to this again if you refuse to let this belief go. It is going to happen again. Do not make this mistake next time. Learn from this.

The blues were already set in stone that Alba was blue. If even two blues trust a Hitler, you basically win. Here it was more than 2. 4 to be exact. The worst part was that liberals weren't using neins more often (and you even say that I overused neins, where I didn't. ), making the amount of votes to be read smaller.

The argument against Ja-ing Albanix as Chancellor was pretty damn simple. You know nothing about her, hence she should be President. That's it. That alone would be enough in a normal game; mind you, in a normal game in my meta of this game, you would have had any amount of information about her to judge whether you should have Ja-ed her or not.

So let me ask you this, Transport. Consider- if she became a Red President in a 4 Claimed Blue deck, do you honestly ever see Liberal!Multi picking her then?

And were you not a tie-breaking vote that resulted in her government getting neined?

And was that Government where she was President before Hitler Zone?

If Multi had the mechanical information about Albanix he needed- instead of HIS READS- that you denied him by neining her, she would never have been heiled. So yes, I do view your refusal to ja almost anyone else besides you as partially directly responsible for the outcome of that.

[TimeToReap]

Aye.

I think I did the best I could.
Then again I haven’t played this in a while and I suck at it.

[Rickdaily12]

Aye.

I think I did the best I could.
Then again I haven’t played this in a while and I suck at it.

No, I think you still have it right.

Everything considered, I do think you did everything you could and kept getting/feeling forced by things. You did play well. Literally the only thing I can say you did that was questionable was that, and it's not like you don't have a good reason for doing it either. I just still think the alternative is what I'd have done to protect Albanix.

[Chemist1422]

I personally messed up my hitler read because I didn't realize that Fascists knew who Hitler was so that's on me