SOOOOO OVER THE RNG

[CoolBeanss]

I struggle and struggle to get a win/loss ratio at 50/50...just as I get close. I get a streak of 10+ mafia/NE/NK roles. This has happened 3 times now since December. I am so over this crap it is rediculous.

Please allow a way for players to identify which faction they prefer in ranked. Town/Mafia/NK/NE. I used to not mind but after the current 3 streak or 10+ games in a row, in ranked as Mafia...I am about ready to quit this game.

[CoolBeanss]

Hopped on a plane after this post. Two games sitting in the Atlanta airport.

-- JESTER
-- FRAMER

Are you kidding me?????

[CoolBeanss]

Next game:

-- Blackmailer

This absolutely rediculous!

[Superalex11]

Odds of getting town in ranked is ~60%, so things like this aren't terribly rare if you've played a large number of games.

[OreoNyan]

But if that was possible no one would ever choose NK... if I had the choice every time if probably choose town, but even though I’m usually a little disappointed to get evil, it sometimes turns into a really fun game, especially as maf. I like it being random, and if it wasn’t, most people would probably choose town and queues would get longer waiting for evils.

[CoolBeanss]

I am just saying let players specify a preference. If all the slots are full, they are full.

After a couple hours off....back to another ranked game:

-- Werewolf!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And I get the percentages, but this is now almost 20 straight games as EVIL. It makes me not even want to play.

[OreoNyan]

Better than specifying a preference might be to figure individual players’ histories into role selection, so that you don’t get the same faction 20 games in a row. But that seems like a low priority change?

[CoolBeanss]

Yea, I legit used to not care. But after the third iteration of this and now 18 games down from a 50 / 50 win/loss ratio....I am so salty and defeated now. Just lost as WW....queuing now.

[CoolBeanss]

Mafioso!!!!!

I cannot make this s*#t up!

[Superalex11]

If the roles you get are that much of a concern, scrolls are an option in other modes. Streaks of unwanted roles are going to happen, and unless the core mechanism of matchmaking is changed (which won't), it's going to stay that way.
Also, if you really want to see the odds in action yourself, I'd write down the role you get each match and keep a list. After about 100-200, look back and see if you're really getting certain roles more often than the statistical predictions (hint: you won't).

[CoolBeanss]

You cannot use scrolls in Ranked.

[CoolBeanss]

I got Veteran, we won.

Next game:

-- FRAMER!

[kyuss420]

I see someone else has the same problems as me.... as soon as I win 3 games, i roll maf/NK for 10 games straight (my even bigger problem, is when I get town, Im usually killed n1/n2, then town does fuck all and says nothing for 4 days, then all of a sudden, everyones a genius at spotting evils when town majority is lost... when i get maf/NK town starts giving each other info from day 2 -_- )

Superlex is a non believer and is telling you it doesnt happen ''cos stats say 60% town''. Maybe it doesnt happen to him, but I can guarentee, in the last 100 games of ranked, I have been evil sided in at least 70-80 games. He doesnt understand its possible that the 40% can hit you 90% of the time....

[Superalex11]

Superalex is a non believer and is telling you it doesnt happen ''cos stats say 60% town''. Maybe it doesnt happen to him, but I can guarentee, in the last 100 games of ranked, I have been evil sided in at least 70-80 games. He doesnt understand its possible that the 40% can hit you 90% of the time....

Not sure if troll but I'll bite anyway.

The ranked role list is as follows: Jailor, TI, TI, TP, TK, TS, RT, RT, RT, Godfather, Mafioso, RM, RM, NE, NK. That makes 9 of the 15 slots town, a 9/15 chance of being town, i.e. exactly 60%. Taking the opposite, that gives an exact 40% chance of being non-town.
Putting this into the first and easiest to understand probability density function you'll learn in a stats class, a binomial pdf, it's simple to see that the probability of getting non-town 70 games out of 100 is as follows: https://i.gyazo.com/b588aadfa546fe097e9 ... 38d327.png
That's 1 in about 1 billion cases.

Being a bit generous I might look at the probability of getting non-town in at least 70 of 100 games. I won't write the equation, bit more complicated, but the odds only improve 3-fold to about 1 in 300 million cases.

This means that for a given 100 ranked games someone plays, the odds that at least 70 of them are spun non-town is 1 in 300 million. So I'm not saying it doesn't happen at all - I'm saying it almost certainly hasn't happened to you. If you still don't believe me, maybe go buy a lottery ticket.

My point in my previous post was that slight deviations from the mean (60%/40%) obviously can and do happen, and should be expected. Exaggerating the numbers to make a point, though, just makes the point meaningless when someone actually looks at those numbers.

So Kyuss, as I suggested to Michael, I'd recommend you to actually note down the role you get for each game and keep a running list. After 100-200 or so, look back and run a count, and see for yourself.

[CoolBeanss]

I record/stream most of my games. So I can easily go back and get some level of detail. It won't capture when I am playing on mobile (iPad) because that was not recorded or streamed.

I can for sure start a fresh counter today (just so you don't think I am trolling)...also, the lottery is a waste of money.

[CoolBeanss]

So Kyuss, as I suggested to Michael, I'd recommend you to actually note down the role you get for each game and keep a running list. After 100-200 or so, look back and run a count, and see for yourself.

It's funny, you study something you change it, here is today so far:

Code: Select all

2020-02-03
01,Spy           ,WIN
02,Lookout       ,GAME CRASHED (Lost -30 Elo)
03,Serial Killer ,LOSS
04,Disguiser     ,WIN
05,Jailor        ,WIN
06,Investigator  ,LOSS
07,Sheriff       ,WIN


[kyuss420]

just because there are 60% town roles and 40% evil roles, doesnt mean that you will get town 60% of the time. If youre such a stat nerd, you would know the term Gamblers Fallacy. But in case you dont know, Ill dumb it down for you...

out of 100 games, you have a 60% town chance 100 times. (Not 60% out of 100 times) If you roll evil 40 games in a row, it doesnt mean you will roll town for the next 60 games... you still have a 60% chance the next time you roll. (Hell, you could roll evil 100 times in a row, and its still a 60% chance next time you roll). Hitting non town 6-7 times out of 10 rolls, over and over again is not a 1 in 300 million chance, its a consistent 6 out of 15 chance.

By your logic, I would be a millionaire playing roullette by now.... 60/40 is basically a coin toss with a slight bias