Glitched scrolls

[jiar37]

So I had some scrolls stored from before that used to work perfectly fine, but recently I went and equipped them and after equipping said scrolls I still have not gotten said roles after 10-20 games (all any).

I bought some disguiser and framer scrolls to test them out and I got disguiser and framer in the next two games, so it looks like its just the scrolls i already had (or jailor/transporter/gf scrolls) were glitched.

[LevinSnakesRise]

Scrolls aren't glitched. They don't guarantee you get the roles. They just increase your odds slightly. It's all RNG, I'm sad to say.

[jiar37]

I know they don't guarantee the roles, but I get the roles more often without the scrolls than with the scrolls on so I assumed it wasn't rng...

[jiar37]

Even when nobody receives the role ingame..? Just saying, this happened over 20 games without getting a single role out of two to three scrolls (jailor, transporter), so I don't feel like it is caused by other people equipping the same scrolls.

[Superalex11]

Even when nobody receives the role ingame..? Just saying, this happened over 20 games without getting a single role out of two to three scrolls (jailor, transporter), so I don't feel like it is caused by other people equipping the same scrolls.

From my understanding, when nobody receives the role, that means the scroll wouldn't have mattered anyway. Scrolls only impact the probability of receiving the role given that it's rolled in one of the 15 slots beforehand. This is evident in the way the "lots" are written out in the wheel screen, where each player has 10 lots by default (out of 150 default) and adds 90 more when scrolling (which, btw, doesn't equate to 10x odds even assuming the role is in the game, thanks BMG).

So for example, in all-any, the odds of 0 survivors being rolled for the 15 slots (this being before the roles are spun on the wheel for players) is ~59%. This means that in 59% of games, you're really running 0 out of 0 lots no matter what; and in the other 41%, (assuming you're the only one scrolling surv) you're running 100 out of 240 lots. This means that your odds of getting surv (again, assuming nobody else scrolls it) only increases from ~3% avg to ~17% avg. Factoring in others' scrolls can bring this down to 12-10% avg.

Statistically, things like this do happen. Even assuming nobody else scrolled what you did, and even more favorable odds than shown, the probability of not getting your scrolled roles over ~20 games is somewhere near 1-2%. While odds this low make it seem like this shouldn't happen, this is a game with thousands of players and hundreds of games going daily, so I wouldn't be surprised.

[jiar37]

Oh, okay

[Jerme]

I believe this thread is safe to be moved to not bugs.