The Neutral Killer's Gambit

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The Neutral Killer's Gambit

Postby Randyxpxp » Wed May 08, 2019 7:54 pm

The Neutral Killer’s Gambit

Contents

Introduction
Part I: The Utility of NK
Part II: Claiming NK
Conclusion

Introduction

It is a well-known fact in Ranked that, in some scenarios, the town needs the NK alive to kill/lynch mafia, or else risk certain death when the mafia gain majority and/or eliminate the rest of the town unimpeded. It is a common occurrence for both the town in Ranked to deliberately keep the NK alive in mid to late game and for the NK (and even mafia) to claim NK in order to distinguish themselves from mafia. If you aren’t familiar with this dynamic, then simply play enough Ranked matches or watch enough videos of Ranked and you’ll see this is not an uncommon element of play. There is a simple logical reason for the town in Ranked to spare the NK in most of these instances: When multiple town are already dead and no mafia are dead or only one mafia is dead (and especially when the NE is still alive), to lynch or execute the NK is effectively tantamount to suicide for the town, since, with the town’s power already crippled, the elimination of the NK will make it virtually impossible to destroy the entire mafia before the mafia can destroy the town. Again, this isn’t a dynamic I’ve conjured out of thin air. This is a well-known aspect of Ranked play and it is common for skilled town to focus on mafia rather than NK in scenarios in which the town is damaged in mid to late game. There are a number of exceptions to this allowance, of course, mainly when the NK is found in early game and the town still has majority. If an SK is found N1 for example, it is usually in the town’s favor to lynch or execute the SK D2, rather than keep them alive. Although the mafia will eventually need the NK dead, it is in the mafia’s interest to keep the NK alive for a while to get rid of town, as mafia can only kill one person a night. In some cases, mafia even know the NK’s identity and will deliberately keep them alive to kill town. Then, when it is no longer in the mafia’s favor to keep the NK alive, the mafia will usually try to get them lynched or executed, after which the mafia plans to finish the game.

That’s in Ranked. In Classic All Any, however, the dynamic differs somewhat, and is arguably more complicated and uncertain. In Ranked, there is a specific role list and a specific number of town, mafia, NE, and NK. There are always four mafia at the beginning, there are always nine town, and there is always one NE and one NK. As such, the town can usually tell whether there are still four mafia alive, although the existence of disguisers can distort this calculation. This clearly defined role list makes it easier for town to determine the value of keeping an NK alive to rid of mafia. In All Any, there is no such defined role list. Instead, there can be anywhere from one to four mafia, or even no mafia at all, although a game without mafia is very rare. This thread covers the complexities of NK in Classic All Any in particular, as my thread The Vampire Paradox covers the complexities of vampires in Classic All Any. Unlike vampires, NK can never win with town, so the issue here is even more complicated, but is still not completely reducible to town vs non-town. To some extent, town often needs non-town to win, although it is naturally situational and depends on a number of factors known and unknown.

Part I: The Utility of NK

For simplicity, I’ll describe a possible All Any scenario (one of millions), to demonstrate the potential utility of NK for town (or even other roles), particularly the utility of NK against mafia. Remember this is only one of many possible scenarios, used here to demonstrate the possible utility of NK. For this scenario, let’s say the role list is as follows (bearing in mind the exact roles are unknown at the outset): jailor, mayor, veteran, investigator, sheriff, bodyguard, medium, godfather, mafioso, consigliere, consort, executioner, jester, survivor, serial killer. Now, let’s say N1 the investigator is killed by mafia and the medium is killed by the SK. D2, the executioner gets their target the veteran lynched and N2 the jailor executes the executioner, while the mafia attacks the SK N2 and the SK attacks the godfather. D3, the jester manages to get lynched and he haunts the survivor N3. Now the executioner and survivor are both dead and neither of them can vote with town. N3, the jailor jails the unrevealed mayor, the SK attacks the bodyguard but they self-vest, and the mafia kills the jailor. D4, the mafioso’s death note reveals the SK’s immunity, and the mafia push to lynch the SK. The jailor is dead now, so the mafia’s best means to kill the SK is to lynch them. The mayor reveals and calls for TP/LO, and during discussion, the sheriff outs the consort as suspicious. The consort calls the sheriff exe and continues to push the SK. Now, let’s pause for a moment and consider this situation.

The only town left are the mayor, the sheriff, and the bodyguard. All four mafia are still alive, and town has identified the SK, while the sheriff has identified a mafia member. In many instances, town would probably lynch the SK here, since their immunity is outed in a death note and the sheriff claim could be an executioner for all they know. All four mafia are likely to vote the serial killer as well, and this means they only need one town vote to put the SK on the stand. To lynch a mafia, in contrast, the SK needs at least five votes, which would include the mayor. The mayor is basically the swing vote here. While it is true that the town doesn’t know there are four mafia, it is possible to sense this, and to scum read mafia based on their behavior. If one of the mafia posts a fake but accurate spy will, this can also provide further information. In any case, the reality of this situation is that if the town lynches the SK today, it is virtually certain town will lose and mafia will win. The SK will be dead, the mafia will probably attack the mayor (and if they know who the BG is they can send their consort to RB them), and even if a mafia dies to a bodyguard, there would still be three mafia left against the mayor and the sheriff and the two last town could only lynch one mafia before the last two mafia finish off the mayor and lynch the sheriff. In essence, lynching the SK here means virtually certain death, and if this were a Ranked game then the town could more easily discern this. This is, however, an All Any game, and the calculus is a bit more clouded. It should be obvious that, by the math alone, lynching the SK ensures a town loss and a mafia win. So let’s consider a scenario where, with no mafia dead, the town refuses to lynch the SK D4 and instead lynches a mafia.

This can happen in a number of ways. One of the ways this can happen is by the SK itself claiming SK, and possibly even outing the godfather. This can distinguish the SK from mafia, and transfer the focus onto mafia instead of the SK. This can backfire in some towns of course, and the town may blindly lynch the SK without consideration of any of these complex dynamics. This is exactly what the mafia want them to do. They need the SK dead at some point, and today is as fine a day as ever for that. The town, however, realistically needs the SK alive to even have a chance to win. Another way they may lynch a mafia instead is by pursuing the sheriff’s lead, or by otherwise focusing on someone else without regard for the SK. This is, in reality, town’s best option.

Let’s say they follow the sheriff’s lead and lynch the consort, ignoring the SK for now. Here’s one way town could win at this point: That night (N4), the SK kills the consigliere and the mafia kills the sheriff. D5 the mayor lynches the godfather, N5 the mafioso attacks the mayor and gets killed by the bodyguard, the SK attacks the bodyguard, and the mayor lynches the SK. Town wins. Now of course it might not go down like this. There are a number of other possible variations, and a number of other possible role lists. There are other ways the town might win and other ways the town might lose. But in this particular instance, lynching the SK virtually guarantees that town loses and mafia wins, whereas leaving the SK alive and lynching a mafia can result in a town win. Don’t take this particular scenario for much, as it’s only one hypothetical scenario meant to demonstrate a principle.

This principle is that, in some scenarios, even in All Any, it is not in the town’s interest to lynch (or execute) an NK rather than a mafia, especially scenarios in which there are likely four mafia alive and possibly only a single NK. In All Any, there could also be multiple NK, and even amnesiacs that remember mafia or NK or NE. In scenarios in which there are multiple NK, it is more likely that lynching or executing an NK will be in town’s interest. In games where there only appears to be a single SK, werewolf, or arsonist however, lynching a mafia in mid to late game is probably better than lynching the NK, unless town still has good numbers and power and can handle mafia on their own. NK has kill potential. It can be used by town to both kill mafia at night and lynch mafia by day. Werewolf and arsonist are more dangerous and chaotic than SK, but even then, lynching a werewolf or arsonist when there are still four mafia (or even only three mafia) alive is potentially harmful to town if town is already down several members.

The impetus to lynch mafia is even more obvious in situations in which the werewolf has just mauled or the arsonist has just ignited. The werewolf can’t maul for another two nights, while a lone arsonist can’t incinerate for another two nights and one ignite from them can only kill one person. I’ve seen many occasions in which a full moon has just passed, the werewolf has just mauled and must wait two nights to transform again, and rather than focus on lynching suspected or possible mafia, the mafia sheeps the town into lynching the werewolf even though the werewolf currently poses less of a danger than a full mafia. It’s true that I’d rather not die to NK if I could help it, but it’s also true that NK are more likely to kill mafia to prevent mafia from gaining majority, and that explicitly siding with NK as town can deter NK from visiting you. Town still needs the NK dead at some point to win, but lynching them over a member of the mafia can easily prove disastrous.

Part II: Claiming NK

Although it may seem ludicrous, claiming NK in All Any can actually be the key sometimes to avoid getting lynched, at least for a day or two. If several town are dead and there hasn’t been a single mafia death yet, when the mafia (or town) push to lynch you, claiming NK and saying town needs you to kill mafia can prevent town from lynching you, and transfer the focus onto mafia instead. Saying that lynching you will give mafia the win is something I’ve seen work a number of times, and that’s only in my own personal observations. One of the reasons this can work is that town often prefer an NK win over a mafia win. This is, I would suggest, a well-known tradition of sorts in Town of Salem. Whatever the reason for this is, many town members are more likely to side with an NK over mafia in such situations. I think one of the possible reasons for this is that the mafia is tantamount to the criminal town. They’re the secret gang of criminals who blackmail, distract, investigate, forge, clean, disguise as, frame, and kill town and use their criminal numbers and advantages to lynch and manipulate town. NK also kill and manipulate town in their own ways, but they don’t have the inside identities and criminal abilities that mafia does, and in any case, town would often rather mafia lose than NK, perhaps especially when town is doomed either way. This is one of the utilities of NK, and something NK can take advantage of. By setting themself apart from mafia and offering to use their abilities to kill mafia, an NK can gain the town’s favor even after having admitted to being NK. Many times, it’s a pick your poison scenario, and town can’t possibly win anyway. But sometimes, town’s only chance to win is keeping the NK alive. While NK can avoid being lynched or executed by fake claiming or using other strategies, I suggest here that, even in All Any, claiming NK can be just as effective if not more effective than lying to town.

Conclusion

In conclusion, although it may seem counter-intuitive to some players, it is actually in town’s interest to keep NK alive in All Any in some instances. This mechanic is designed into the game. Mafia is a mutual enemy of the town and NK, and without NK, town often crumbles in quick succession, even if they manage to lynch a mafia or two. The utility of NK is especially prevalent in towns in which there is no indication of a jailor, a vigilante, or vampires to kill mafia. If the town doesn’t have a jailor, a vigilante, or vampires to kill mafia at night, the NK is just about the closest town can come to a mafia killer. Although lynching or executing an NK in early to mid game can allow town to maintain majority and rid of the mafia in the coming days and nights, the mafia has the advantage of knowing each other’s identities, and being able to deflect suspicion from each other in addition to using their night abilities to control and manipulate town. Mafia can also get NE or NB on their side, and use them to the mafia’s advantage. If one pays close attention, it can be observed that the people pushing to lynch the suspected NK often turn out to be mafia, and this focus on the NK by these individuals can be used as information against them. Town and other roles push NK as well, but in All Any mafia frequently know the NK’s identity sooner than the town, and will try to get them lynched at some point.

The Neutral Killer’s Gambit is twofold: 1) the gambit of an NK who claims NK in the hopes that town will spare its life in exchange for its utility against mafia, which can result in an NK win; and 2) the gambit of the town who allows the NK to live in the hopes that it will kill/lynch mafia and be killed or lynched later, which can result in a town win. Both of these are gambles. The respective parties each take a chance, which can backfire. The NK may get lynched or executed for claiming NK, while letting the NK live may result in town being killed or lynched instead. It’s all variable, but the fact remains that in many possible towns, lynching the NK is tantamount to suicide, and will result in a town loss.

If a town falls into this trap of lynching the NK instead of the mafia, this plays right into the mafia’s hands and can easily prove town’s undoing. There is a delicate balance for town between getting rid of mafia and getting rid of NK, just as there is a delicate balance for mafia between using an NK’s kill potential and getting rid of NK. Sometimes NK is a better focus. Sometimes mafia is a better focus. NK will often be outed first however, as their immunity can be outed by the mafia’s death note, a consigliere or consort can find them, and a witch may reveal the NK’s identity to the mafia as well. Mafia will try to use the town’s fear of the NK against them, when in reality the mafia is only trying to rid of a dangerous enemy so they can smoothly finish off the rest of the town. Given the obscured role list in All Any, the determination of when it is and isn’t strategic to keep NK alive is more difficult, but with some intuition and analysis, it should be clear whether the mafia or the NK is a better lynch.

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Re: The Neutral Killer's Gambit

Postby kyuss420 » Thu May 09, 2019 3:23 am

nothing new to me here, but, people dont think ahead, they quit evil roles when they roll them or just hit randos and hope to get lucky, so really have no idea what strategy is when playing as mafia, so when they are in those situations as town, they do play into pro mafias hands.

Lynching an NK and giving mafia majority really is a dumb move. At that point, the only way an NK can win is to start killing mafia and keeping the town vs maf majority deadlocked. Sadly tho a pro maf (or a pro NK) wouldve killed off any smarter players that would understand this and town would be left with afks, people who werent paying attention, people who never spoke or claimed, in which case town tend to lean on the confirmed NK instead of the guy with no claim, who ''could be a silent townie'', or the third spy claim, who ''could actually be RT and the medium could be fake''.

So when youre in this situation as town, and trying to not give mafia majority, it comes down to whether or not the other townies 1. Believe your role claim, 2. Trust your scum reading, because 3. Most will want proof that ''X'' is mafia before lynching him over a confirmed NK (Whether there is TIs alive to get such proof is beside the point in most cases XD) (Also whether they have numbers to lynch the following day when the proof has been delivered, seems to never enter into anyones mind) 4. guarantee maf will kill you that night for not falling into their majority gaining trap XD

I often get lynched as NK or NE, even after spelling it out for them on the stand
Me : ''theres 5 town and 4 maf, they kill one of you tonight and its 4v4 tommoro, jailor and TP are dead''
Town : You killed the doc! Die!
Me: ''I have to kill maf, or they will lynch me'' ''they wont kill the townies that voted me''
Town You lied and claimed doc! (well duh)

next day sheriff finds a maf, gets 4 votes, then calls the 4 non voting mafia gamethrowers XD
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Re: The Neutral Killer's Gambit

Postby Google » Thu May 09, 2019 10:03 am

This is already known.
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Re: The Neutral Killer's Gambit

Postby GrumpyGoomba » Thu May 09, 2019 10:14 am

Golgo now that's just mean. He might actually be trying to help newbies...
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Re: The Neutral Killer's Gambit

Postby Google » Thu May 09, 2019 3:37 pm

GrumpyGoomba wrote:Golgo now that's just mean. He might actually be trying to help newbies...

It doesnt work in practice. This hinders. The playerbase is mostly 8 year olds who found vids from the 'every youtuber must do a vid about tos' time and got a free flash game.
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Re: The Neutral Killer's Gambit

Postby UzayAltay » Sun May 12, 2019 3:05 pm

It is a well-known Play , The problem is it Almost never works at AA .
At known role-lists ( The ones town know there is How many Evils) , it should Work in theory , even though I Saw it didnt Work as at theory .
AA is a different Story , Town Dont know How many Evils are alive , from 9 players and less ( or More , If Witch exist ) , This has chance to Work , but most town's ( Also include me ) opinion is not trusting NK when it is not obvious You Lost .

My reason is In The scenario You mentioned ( or other scenarios town Dont have majority ) , there isnt much hope for town Wins anyways .
Another time when I lynch SK is when I am TP , which is important to keep in mind .

From NK's PoV , they should always try their best for staying alive . Siding with town is A Correct play when You are outed , even it fails most of time , it is The best try .
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Re: The Neutral Killer's Gambit

Postby kyuss420 » Mon May 13, 2019 4:06 am

UzayAltay wrote:
My reason is In The scenario You mentioned ( or other scenarios town Dont have majority ) , there isnt much hope for town Wins anyways .
Another time when I lynch SK is when I am TP , which is important to keep in mind .

From NK's PoV , they should always try their best for staying alive . Siding with town is A Correct play when You are outed , even it fails most of time , it is The best try .


So why not try to force the draw instead of handing the win to mafia? Siding with maf and lynching NK (especially on the day they want the NK lynched) is a definite town loss

As previously stated, from NKs POV, if maf have outed you and dont have voting power, its suicide killing town and giving mafia voting power. NK has to kill mafia to win, becuase at that point, they are the only real threat to mafias win and will be the first lynched when they get majority. So its not really ''siding'' with town cos killing a maf would be the best play anyway. So as a TP it would be better to wait a day, or try to lynch a mafia instead of the NK, (this will also make the NK feel safer about targeting maf) and hope that maf hit your target and dont get a kill, while SK kills off a maf, and then lynch the NK
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Re: The Neutral Killer's Gambit

Postby Randyxpxp » Wed May 15, 2019 11:52 pm

Google wrote:This is already known.

You know, you would think this is already known, or at least would hope so, but in reality this is far from known by many players, especially players I've seen in AA.

Thanks for the input though, very detailed...
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Re: The Neutral Killer's Gambit

Postby Randyxpxp » Wed May 15, 2019 11:53 pm

Google wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:Golgo now that's just mean. He might actually be trying to help newbies...

It doesnt work in practice. This hinders. The playerbase is mostly 8 year olds who found vids from the 'every youtuber must do a vid about tos' time and got a free flash game.

I really hope this isn't true... I have suspected that I am sometimes playing with actual 8-12 year-olds but even then there's this part of me that hopes the kid will get it at some point.
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Re: The Neutral Killer's Gambit

Postby Randyxpxp » Thu May 16, 2019 12:09 am

kyuss420 wrote:nothing new to me here, but, people dont think ahead, they quit evil roles when they roll them or just hit randos and hope to get lucky, so really have no idea what strategy is when playing as mafia, so when they are in those situations as town, they do play into pro mafias hands.

Lynching an NK and giving mafia majority really is a dumb move. At that point, the only way an NK can win is to start killing mafia and keeping the town vs maf majority deadlocked. Sadly tho a pro maf (or a pro NK) wouldve killed off any smarter players that would understand this and town would be left with afks, people who werent paying attention, people who never spoke or claimed, in which case town tend to lean on the confirmed NK instead of the guy with no claim, who ''could be a silent townie'', or the third spy claim, who ''could actually be RT and the medium could be fake''.

So when youre in this situation as town, and trying to not give mafia majority, it comes down to whether or not the other townies 1. Believe your role claim, 2. Trust your scum reading, because 3. Most will want proof that ''X'' is mafia before lynching him over a confirmed NK (Whether there is TIs alive to get such proof is beside the point in most cases XD) (Also whether they have numbers to lynch the following day when the proof has been delivered, seems to never enter into anyones mind) 4. guarantee maf will kill you that night for not falling into their majority gaining trap XD

I often get lynched as NK or NE, even after spelling it out for them on the stand
Me : ''theres 5 town and 4 maf, they kill one of you tonight and its 4v4 tommoro, jailor and TP are dead''
Town : You killed the doc! Die!
Me: ''I have to kill maf, or they will lynch me'' ''they wont kill the townies that voted me''
Town You lied and claimed doc! (well duh)

next day sheriff finds a maf, gets 4 votes, then calls the 4 non voting mafia gamethrowers XD

This is one of the reasons I like AA so much. It's harder to deduce the role list and there are more possible alignments. In AA, not lynching an NK such as SK can also extend to other NK such as werewolf or arso, who can't be killed by SK and could benefit from them alive for several reasons. (Despite this, an arso lynched me earlier tonight and, no surprise, ended up getting lynched by mafia later.) I think that the complexity and nuance of this game is actually far beyond many contemporary games, although it has the appearance of a goofy "flash game". Town finds itself pressured by killers on both sides, mafia and NK, and with the NK confirmed, I frequently see town fall into the mafia's trap without any apparent consideration for what will happen the next day when no mafia are dead and there aren't enough votes to lynch any of them. At some point, you have to use the tools you have available to survive, even if that means temporarily sparing an enemy, and if you don't, then mafia gets handed the win. I've seen this so many times now. I've lynched NK over possible mafia as town before, but as my experience in this game grew, I realized that a lot of the time in AA, the only person killing mafia at night is the NK, a lot of the time there's only one NK or maybe two, and the people pushing the NK suspects the hardest are usually mafia, who need them out of the way to finish off the rest of the town without issue. I love the design of this game. I think it's a great, well thought out game, my favorite game on the market at the moment actually, and one of the reasons I love it is for this dynamic of the town sometimes relying on its own enemies to eliminate other enemies. The game would be much simpler if it was just town and mafia, but it isn't, and that's one of the reasons it's so complex and novel. I do think a large portion of the player base is probably comprised of relatively inexperienced youth, which can excuse a lot of their errors, but sometimes the town who get sheeped by mafia like this seem like they're thinking it through and still don't seem to appreciate how suicidal it is to help mafia like that. You're basically helping mafia. That's the issue here. You may be helping town in some way, but you're most definitely helping mafia out getting rid of an immune killer who wants them dead.
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Re: The Neutral Killer's Gambit

Postby Randyxpxp » Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:20 pm

kyuss420 wrote: So why not try to force the draw instead of handing the win to mafia? Siding with maf and lynching NK (especially on the day they want the NK lynched) is a definite town loss

I think a lot of towns are too sheep to realize they're handing the win to mafia in the first place. Then, even when they do realize it, it's as if they don't want to take the time to see whether they can use the NK to eliminate mafia before the NK is lynched, or they know town is doomed and they just want to get it over with. Personally, I'm almost always inclined to side with a solo NK over mafia if town is doomed, and I can usually tell who the mafia are as town when certain people start to aggressively push someone as NK. Anyway, I've learned as NK to just get rid of some mafia early so they don't have as strong of a presence later, and then perhaps I can accuse one of them of being NK instead.
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