N1 Survivor Vesting

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N1 Survivor Vesting

Postby alex1234321 » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:43 am

I play Classic All Any, and I rarely if ever vest N1 as Survivor. Sometimes when I post my will later in the game people think I'm evil because "all survs vest N1" or something along those lines. In All Any it's common for games to last 6-7 nights with players still having no idea of each other's roles, so I want to have some vests available in case the game goes on for a long time. Statistically, you're more likely to die N5 (given that you're still alive at that point) than N1 because there are far more players alive N1 and most killing roles tend to longer than non-killing roles. Even if there's a small chance that I'm killed N1, it seems like a much smaller risk than vesting N1-4 and getting killed N5 because some Mafia member thinks I'm secretly the Mayor.

Am I missing something that makes vesting N1 a better play?
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Re: N1 Survivor Vesting

Postby Ezradekezra » Sat Jul 10, 2021 9:53 am

I rarely vest N1 as Surv and never get pushed for that so I don't think you're missing anything
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Re: N1 Survivor Vesting

Postby Joacgroso » Sat Jul 10, 2021 5:16 pm

I mean, even if the vest saves you you will probably be lynched for being immune very soon.
I still hope one day the game will have private lobbies. They would really help.
Also, please nerf vampire hunters.
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Re: N1 Survivor Vesting

Postby cob709 » Sat Jul 10, 2021 6:55 pm

you could get randomly attacked on n1 and die, so survivors would want to vest to prevent that
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Re: N1 Survivor Vesting

Postby kyuss420 » Sun Jul 11, 2021 4:00 am

cob709 wrote:you could get randomly attacked on n1 and die, so survivors would want to vest to prevent that


doubt it, i purposely dont vest until at least n4... survivor is so boring, who wouldnt want to be killed early game so they can requeue...... anyone who claims they vested early as survivor deserves to be hanged. Also any surv with a brain would be pushing town to find the NKs early, so that their survivor claim holds up better later on.

Besides that, vests are more important for late game when someone wants to take you out for siding maf/town/coven/NK.

So vesting early is a waste...and even if you die....good, saves playing as a boring role, if you live, you have a better chance of surviving late game.
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Re: N1 Survivor Vesting

Postby cob709 » Sun Jul 11, 2021 11:52 am

kyuss420 wrote:
cob709 wrote:you could get randomly attacked on n1 and die, so survivors would want to vest to prevent that


doubt it, i purposely dont vest until at least n4... survivor is so boring, who wouldnt want to be killed early game so they can requeue...... anyone who claims they vested early as survivor deserves to be hanged. Also any surv with a brain would be pushing town to find the NKs early, so that their survivor claim holds up better later on.

Besides that, vests are more important for late game when someone wants to take you out for siding maf/town/coven/NK.

So vesting early is a waste...and even if you die....good, saves playing as a boring role, if you live, you have a better chance of surviving late game.


but that's gamethrowing
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Re: N1 Survivor Vesting

Postby Joacgroso » Sun Jul 11, 2021 11:55 am

Not if he says vests are more important for late game when people might target him out of spite.
I still hope one day the game will have private lobbies. They would really help.
Also, please nerf vampire hunters.
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Re: N1 Survivor Vesting

Postby Benn3 » Sat Jul 17, 2021 6:58 pm

alex1234321 wrote:I play Classic All Any, and I rarely if ever vest N1 as Survivor. Sometimes when I post my will later in the game people think I'm evil because "all survs vest N1" or something along those lines. In All Any it's common for games to last 6-7 nights with players still having no idea of each other's roles, so I want to have some vests available in case the game goes on for a long time. Statistically, you're more likely to die N5 (given that you're still alive at that point) than N1 because there are far more players alive N1 and most killing roles tend to longer than non-killing roles. Even if there's a small chance that I'm killed N1, it seems like a much smaller risk than vesting N1-4 and getting killed N5 because some Mafia member thinks I'm secretly the Mayor.

Am I missing something that makes vesting N1 a better play?


I never vest N1 as Survivor either. I usually wait until N3 to vest but I try to savor mine incase I get attacked. In my experience when I claim surv D1 nobody ever attacks me and I'm just left alone for the rest of the game.
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Re: N1 Survivor Vesting

Postby kyuss420 » Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:44 am

cob709 wrote:
kyuss420 wrote:
cob709 wrote:you could get randomly attacked on n1 and die, so survivors would want to vest to prevent that


doubt it, i purposely dont vest until at least n4... survivor is so boring, who wouldnt want to be killed early game so they can requeue...... anyone who claims they vested early as survivor deserves to be hanged. Also any surv with a brain would be pushing town to find the NKs early, so that their survivor claim holds up better later on.

Besides that, vests are more important for late game when someone wants to take you out for siding maf/town/coven/NK.

So vesting early is a waste...and even if you die....good, saves playing as a boring role, if you live, you have a better chance of surviving late game.


but that's gamethrowing


if not vesting is gamethrowing, then we should be reporting any survivor that dies n1 - n4
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Re: N1 Survivor Vesting

Postby cob709 » Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:13 am

kyuss420 wrote:
cob709 wrote:
kyuss420 wrote:
cob709 wrote:you could get randomly attacked on n1 and die, so survivors would want to vest to prevent that


doubt it, i purposely dont vest until at least n4... survivor is so boring, who wouldnt want to be killed early game so they can requeue...... anyone who claims they vested early as survivor deserves to be hanged. Also any surv with a brain would be pushing town to find the NKs early, so that their survivor claim holds up better later on.

Besides that, vests are more important for late game when someone wants to take you out for siding maf/town/coven/NK.

So vesting early is a waste...and even if you die....good, saves playing as a boring role, if you live, you have a better chance of surviving late game.


but that's gamethrowing


if not vesting is gamethrowing, then we should be reporting any survivor that dies n1 - n4

no not that
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Re: N1 Survivor Vesting

Postby kyuss420 » Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:59 pm

so using optimal game theories is gamethrowing?

Mathematically, there is more chance of you being killed late game, when there are less targets to choose from, or when youve made it clear youre siding with town.
Theoretically, if someone wants to take you out they will wait til late game when theres more chance that you have used your vests, or you have a low amount of vests, so will likely be saving them.

In practice, ive found the mathematical option works the best over a large number of games....over 100 survivor games, saving all vests for n4+ will win you more games than losing, no matter what happens during the game.
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Re: N1 Survivor Vesting

Postby alex1234321 » Thu Jul 29, 2021 12:34 pm

kyuss420 wrote:In practice, ive found the mathematical option works the best over a large number of games....over 100 survivor games, saving all vests for n4+ will win you more games than losing, no matter what happens during the game.


N4? That seems a little late considering that the outcome of the game is usually all but determined by N6. Do you have any specific data?
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Re: N1 Survivor Vesting

Postby kyuss420 » Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:37 pm

alex1234321 wrote:
kyuss420 wrote:In practice, ive found the mathematical option works the best over a large number of games....over 100 survivor games, saving all vests for n4+ will win you more games than losing, no matter what happens during the game.


N4? That seems a little late considering that the outcome of the game is usually all but determined by N6. Do you have any specific data?


most towns in AA seem to fuck around a lot early game, with the first lynch happening day 3, if youre lucky. So Id have to argue on gg being N6....but feel free to vest n3+ if you want to. Also I play in coven, so having a 4 man evil faction vs town is uncommon, since theres 2 evil factions, so majority votes kind of stall out longer than in classic.

Point being, if you are alive, and theres 4 nights left til theres a winner, and you have 4 vests, the only way you lose is if town gets dumb and lynches you. If theres 4 nights left and you have 0 vests, then you can also die at night... each vest wasted early, is a late game risk you are taking. Vesting n4 gives you night immunity until n8 and gives you some sense of who has majority, so you can vote to speed the game up.

sure theres arsonists, CL drains, Jugg attacks, jester haunts, medusa gazes but theres no strategy for any role/faction that guarantees 100% chance of winning. But out of 10 games, those things may happen twice on average (less if youve claiming since day 1 and hunting NKs.....even less still, if the evils have a brain)

The only data I have to go on are my 333 survivor wins unfortunately..... so out of my 11k games, i have maybe gotten survivor 500 times, so my optimal game theory strategy failed 167 times (killed early/lynched by evils to buy them a day/lynched by town cos ''surv sus'' etc.) but won 333 times, which is a win rate Im happy with. If a strategy wins the game 6 times out of 10, its a working strategy.
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