alex1234321 wrote:kyuss420 wrote:In practice, ive found the mathematical option works the best over a large number of games....over 100 survivor games, saving all vests for n4+ will win you more games than losing, no matter what happens during the game.

N4? That seems a little late considering that the outcome of the game is usually all but determined by N6. Do you have any specific data?

most towns in AA seem to fuck around a lot early game, with the first lynch happening day 3, if youre lucky. So Id have to argue on gg being N6....but feel free to vest n3+ if you want to. Also I play in coven, so having a 4 man evil faction vs town is uncommon, since theres 2 evil factions, so majority votes kind of stall out longer than in classic.

Point being, if you are alive, and theres 4 nights left til theres a winner, and you have 4 vests, the only way you lose is if town gets dumb and lynches you. If theres 4 nights left and you have 0 vests, then you can also die at night... each vest wasted early, is a late game risk you are taking. Vesting n4 gives you night immunity until n8 and gives you some sense of who has majority, so you can vote to speed the game up.

sure theres arsonists, CL drains, Jugg attacks, jester haunts, medusa gazes but theres no strategy for any role/faction that guarantees 100% chance of winning. But out of 10 games, those things may happen twice on average (less if youve claiming since day 1 and hunting NKs.....even less still, if the evils have a brain)

The only data I have to go on are my 333 survivor wins unfortunately..... so out of my 11k games, i have maybe gotten survivor 500 times, so my optimal game theory strategy failed 167 times (killed early/lynched by evils to buy them a day/lynched by town cos ''surv sus'' etc.) but won 333 times, which is a win rate Im happy with. If a strategy wins the game 6 times out of 10, its a working strategy.