How would you beat the Jailor's meta

[kosmo16]

I am consistently trying to help people play the game from evil side by posting guides, strats, puzzles etc. So this thread is another puzzle.

I will probably update the OP with additional puzzles, but let's start with 4 which are extreme.

Information and rules

• In all scenarios you are playing ranked game as the Godfather.
• Jailor's meta is in the play and whole Town is following Jailor's meta.
• NE are siding with the Mafia. You can control their actions as long as they are not against they win conditions.
• You can control NK's actions as long as they are not against they win conditions.
• Town is playing logically and don't take unnecessary risk.
• You know roles in play. But you don't know who has which role.
• All TIs claim D2 except for Lookout.
• Lookout informs the Jailor about visits D2, D3 etc.

Example
Setup:
Jailor
Sheriff
Spy
Doctor
Medium
Veteran
Medium
Sheriff
Sheriff
Godfather
Mafioso
Consort
Forger
Executioner
Arsonist

Spoiler: This is actually very easy for the Mafia to win. The only problem in this game is the Arsonist.
Let's consider what impacts our game and how we should react (Percentage is not very accurate as I ignore some low chance possibilities like a Sheriff checking jailed Mafia, Executioner accusing jailed Townie, etc. ).
Event 1: Mafia attacks neutral N1. (20%)
Event 2: Mafia attacks jailed person N1. (7%)
Event 3: A sheriff finds Mafia N1. (55%)
Event 4: Arsonist jailed N1. (7%)
Event 5: Mafia kills the Doctor, the Spy or a Medium N1. (40%)

1. If events 1,2, 3 and 4 won't happen you can just follow the Executioner who accuses their target. To make sure it happens you can have Forger or Mafioso also accuse the target. A Townie is lynched, Jailor ignited and roleblocked. The Mafia goes for a safe kill and it is 5v4v1v1 with no Jailor and Vigilante. Let's assume this is win for the Mafia (I know it's 50/50 with Arso).
Current chance: 35%

2. If event 3 happens and 1,2,4 doesn't happen, you can still play with the Executioner and accuse their target. Town will usually lynch a person accused by 2 people. Accused Mafia can claim Retributionist and are safe. Again a Townie is lynched, Jailor ignited and roleblocked. The Mafia goes for a safe kill and it is 5v4v1v1 with no Jailor and Vigilante.
Current chance: 35% + 42% = 77%.
Of course it is slghtly lower as the Jailor can execute Consort, 2 Sheriffs find the same Mafia, but it is still above 70%.

I could go further and write possible tactics when the Arsonist is jailed, Mafia hit immune or Consort is accused by the Sheriff who is Exe's target, but this is just example and 70% is already a satisfying chance.

Scenario 1
Setup:
Jailor
Investigator
Lookout
Doctor
Mayor
Veteran
Investigator
Spy
Sheriff
Godfather
Mafioso
Framer
Janitor
Executioner
Arsonist

Scenario 2
Setup:
Jailor
Sheriff
Spy
Bodyguard
Medium
Vigilante
Bodyguard
Doctor
Doctor
Godfather
Mafioso
Framer
Forger
Witch
Arsonist

Scenario 3
Setup:
Jailor
Investigator
Spy
Bodyguard
Transporter
Vigilante
Vigilante
Vigilante
Vigilante
Godfather
Mafioso
Disguiser
Janitor
Executioner
Arsonist

Scenario 4
Setup:
Jailor
Investigator
Lookout
Bodyguard
Retributionist
Vigilante
Transporter
Mayor
Transporter
Godfather
Mafioso
Consort
Framer
Jester
Werewolf

What you should do in each puzzle.
1. What roles your Mafia should claim in certain situations jailed/busted/vfr/free?
2. What is the strategy? (e.g. gf will try to deepwolf; we play passive; we accuse someone; etc.)
3. What is the tactic? (e.g. gf will accuse Mafia member for being mafia with a Sheriff claim; Forger will accuse Sheriff for being Mafia with a Sheriff claim; etc.)
4. Additional comments.
Try to be as detailed as you can!

The best solution would be the one with highest probability to win which I will calculate later. Calculations will be revealed.

[UzayAltay]

First, that thread is a good idea.
Secondly , do you prefer answers to be written as reply or PM?

[Transcender]

if this a puzzle, shouldnt it go in ToS discussion and not strat

[kosmo16]

First, that thread is a good idea.
Secondly , do you prefer answers to be written as reply or PM?

As reply so other people can comment. Also some discussion can help you to improve your answer.

if this a puzzle, shouldnt it go in ToS discussion and not strat

This thread should improve your gameplay so should be here. My endgame puzzles were posted here as well.

[Transcender]

but they are puzzles, not, well, discussing strategy. just because you also put other puzzles in here doesnt mean its correct.

[kosmo16]

but they are puzzles, not, well, discussing strategy. just because you also put other puzzles in here doesnt mean its correct.

Strategic Discussion
Discuss the newest strategies involving the game in a professional manner and spread your knowledge

This exactly what we will do here.

[CrimsonKatana]

Scenario 1: Arsonist douses the Jailor, let's say the mafia kills the Sheriff. Framer comes out as Sheriff D2 and calls the investigator suspicious, mafia pushes hard to get a mislynch. Framer gets exed, Jailor gets ignited, LO dies, now it's a 5v5. No one is getting votes up the next day until Mayor reveals and lynches the gf. The mafia kills the spy, the doctor uses it's self heal thinking it will be attacked, Mafioso gets doused. The next day the Mafioso comes out as Arso and claims he has the Janitor doused and will ignite tonight, the Janitor tries to push the Mafioso to make it believable even though Arso tries to claim arso as well, anyways the Mayor gets shept into believing the Arso is actually the Mafioso and lynches him thinking that their best shot at winning. Then the Doctor dies and it's a 3v3 again where this time the new Mafioso gets lynched but then Mayor dies next night. Then no one gets voted up, then Mafia kills the last invest, then Mafia votes up Exes target which is the vet in a 2v1 and maf and exe win.

[kosmo16]

Scenario 1: Arsonist douses the Jailor, let's say the mafia kills the Sheriff. Framer comes out as Sheriff D2 and calls the investigator suspicious, mafia pushes hard to get a mislynch. Framer gets exed, Jailor gets ignited, LO dies, now it's a 5v5. No one is getting votes up the next day until Mayor reveals and lynches the gf. The mafia kills the spy, the doctor uses it's self heal thinking it will be attacked, Mafioso gets doused. The next day the Mafioso comes out as Arso and claims he has the Janitor doused and will ignite tonight, the Janitor tries to push the Mafioso to make it believable even though Arso tries to claim arso as well, anyways the Mayor gets shept into believing the Arso is actually the Mafioso and lynches him thinking that their best shot at winning. Then the Doctor dies and it's a 3v3 again where this time the new Mafioso gets lynched but then Mayor dies next night. Then no one gets voted up, then Mafia kills the last invest, then Mafia votes up Exes target which is the vet in a 2v1 and maf and exe win.

Hmm, not too many possibilities were covered I will draw a probability tree diagram, so you can see which possibilities you missed.

EDIT:
Also you know roles of the people, not who is exactly who, unless they claim. So you can accuse investigator AFTER they claimed.

I updated OP so it is more clear.

[kosmo16]

Scenario 1: Arsonist douses the Jailor, let's say the mafia kills the Sheriff. Framer comes out as Sheriff D2 and calls the investigator suspicious, mafia pushes hard to get a mislynch. Framer gets exed, Jailor gets ignited, LO dies, now it's a 5v5. No one is getting votes up the next day until Mayor reveals and lynches the gf. The mafia kills the spy, the doctor uses it's self heal thinking it will be attacked, Mafioso gets doused. The next day the Mafioso comes out as Arso and claims he has the Janitor doused and will ignite tonight, the Janitor tries to push the Mafioso to make it believable even though Arso tries to claim arso as well, anyways the Mayor gets shept into believing the Arso is actually the Mafioso and lynches him thinking that their best shot at winning. Then the Doctor dies and it's a 3v3 again where this time the new Mafioso gets lynched but then Mayor dies next night. Then no one gets voted up, then Mafia kills the last invest, then Mafia votes up Exes target which is the vet in a 2v1 and maf and exe win.

Hmm, not too many possibilities were covered I will draw a probability tree diagram, so you can see which possibilities you missed.

EDIT:
Also you know roles of the people, not who is exactly who, unless they claim. So you can accuse investigator AFTER they claimed.

I updated OP so it is more clear.

It's too specific to make a good estimation. Below 0.1% A lot of things are not covered.

Arso can douse Jailor if not jailed. Chance: 13/14
Because there is lookout and spy I think you can lynch Investigator only if they checked Mafia/Neutral/ti who claimed 9/13.
You didn't take into account sheriff finding Mafia N1 or inv finding as Mafia other person than the one accusing him.

Maybe I will post some example tomorrow.

[QuetzalcoatI]

You wouldn't have all this information even in a jailor meta. Mafia teams hardly coordinate even in master so it's basically every man for himself.

You only need a 34% winrate to climb after the elo changes, so this discussion is pointless.

[kosmo16]

You wouldn't have all this information even in a jailor meta. Mafia teams hardly coordinate even in master so it's basically every man for himself.

You only need a 34% winrate to climb after the elo changes, so this discussion is pointless.

If you tell your teammates what you plan to do and what they should do, they usually follow the plan. I once convinced my teammates to not kill N1 and just visit someone with framer/forger.

Figuring out the setup is the next step.

It's your choice to not trying as the Mafia. I personally enjoy outplaying the Town.

[ChemicalKing]

None of these really look winnable for evils.

I think Mafia should claim Spy or Sheriff for the first three and Vig or Bodyguard for the last one, but still the odds of them winning this is very slim, particularly with Jailor meta in full effect.

[kosmo16]

None of these really look winnable for evils.

I think Mafia should claim Spy or Sheriff for the first three and Vig or Bodyguard for the last one, but still the odds of them winning this is very slim, particularly with Jailor meta in full effect.

Really? Even in the example? In the example I chose something favorable for evils. I estimate that in such a setup with a good strategy, evils should win 70% of the time. You can elaborate on that.

[kosmo16]

Looks like topic is too hard. Maybe I will just post my answers which can be discussed and hopefully improved.

[Transcender]

Looks like topic is too hard. Maybe I will just post my answers which can be discussed and hopefully improved.

i think its more that not enough people care

[kosmo16]

Looks like topic is too hard. Maybe I will just post my answers which can be discussed and hopefully improved.

i think its more that not enough people care

Could be. Maybe I should post Town puzzles

[Transcender]

Looks like topic is too hard. Maybe I will just post my answers which can be discussed and hopefully improved.

i think its more that not enough people care

Could be. Maybe I should post Town puzzles :)

i dont think more puzzles is the solution to people not wanting to do puzzles
not many people visit strategic discussion anyways

[kosmo16]

Looks like topic is too hard. Maybe I will just post my answers which can be discussed and hopefully improved.

i think its more that not enough people care

Could be. Maybe I should post Town puzzles

i dont think more puzzles is the solution to people not wanting to do puzzles
not many people visit strategic discussion anyways

This one had some interest: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=74850&hilit=Endgame+quiz

[Transcender]

Looks like topic is too hard. Maybe I will just post my answers which can be discussed and hopefully improved.

i think its more that not enough people care

Could be. Maybe I should post Town puzzles :)

i dont think more puzzles is the solution to people not wanting to do puzzles
not many people visit strategic discussion anyways

This one had some interest: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=74850&hilit=Endgame+quiz

that was 2017.

[UzayAltay]

TBH I am planning to Do A try in A few days , when I have More free time.

[BasicFourLife]

u become gay since its pride month and suck jailors dick, all u have to say is nohomomomo

[Transcender]

u become gay since its pride month and suck jailors dick, all u have to say is nohomomomo

lesbians

[PatrykSzczescie]

Scenario 1:

Night 1

Hit outside jailor and clean the kill. Framer visits jailor.

Day 2

Mafioso prepares a vig claim and cc's when TK outed. Janitor prepares a med claim and outs immediately when there's a clean. Framer prepares a doc claim and cc's when TP outed. GF prepares a ret claim but claims only when checked by invest or VFR'd. All maf members whisper to jailor their claims.

Arsonist on jailor and cc's TP as BG claim igniting the jailor as soon as night appears.

Push on the fact that there are too many TI claims and one of them must be lynched even when a suspicious report is found. Evils try to push on exe target.

Night 2

Depending on N1 jan:
- LO janned: jan the kill tonight. Frame the spy.
- Doc janned: kill the jailor. Frame the spy. If one of mafs hasn't outed yet, jan the kill and the non-claimer claims LO accusing 2 people who haven't claimed of visiting jailor. LO will for N1 should be outed TP claims, spy and the cleaned N1 visiting jailor. If accused claims jailed N2, another maf cc's jailed N2.
- Other cases: hit revealed mayor -> outed doc -> the towniest outed TI (invest first). If vet outed, hit non-claimers unless hitting revealed mayor makes town lose their majority. Frame the jailor. Janitor doesn't visit.

Day 3

Depending on N1 jan:
- Doc janned: if LO cc'd, janitor says dead was sheriff with sus report on whoever LO is going to guilty. If all mafs claimed (LO not cc'd), janitor says dead was spy who bugged jailor and confirms mafia visits N1.
- Invest janned: janitor says dead was sheriff with ns report on GF.
- Spy janned: janitor says dead was spy confirming only mafia kill and jan. Confirms framer visit only when framer is dead.
- Any other role janned: janitor says dead was invest confirming outed claim and suggests to lynch the remaining invest claims reasoning that potential janitor claimed his N1 clean.
Mafioso claims having shot vet who had high defense if vet is not confirmed and outed D2. If TI guiltied a maf member, mafioso claims having shot this TI shot instead.

Rest of game: mafia tries to focus on getting townies lynched, trying to hit jailor (if doc dead) -> LO (unless maf hits to gain majority) -> mayor -> doc. Framer tries to frame jailor unless LO or jailor is dead then framing spy unless spy is also dead then framing the scummiest townie.

[PatrykSzczescie]

Scenario 2:

Night 1

Mafia kills outside jailor. Forger and framer go on jailor. Forger prepares a trans will and asks 2 partners to claim transed but they need to wait for sheriff results first.

Day 2

Wait for sheriff report. If sheriff doesn't have any sus report, 2 maf members claim transed and forger prepares it as a claim. Mafioso outs a sheriff report with ns on partner. If sheriff has a sus report on mafia member, the mafia member claimed transed and forger claims transing the mafia member into a random townie trying to get the townie lynched. GF prepares a vig claim and claims it when VFR'd or vig claimed. If by the end of the day a confirmed mafia is revealed, witch should control outed vig or jailor if vig is hidden. If there's no confirmed scum to execute and spy is alive, witch is asked to control framer into a mafia member that is not the forger. Framer prepares a doctor claim when VFR'd but doesn't cc existing TPs. Eventually tries to claim medium or vig whoever is to be claimed last, with medium as the priority. If framer gets to claim vig, witch is forced to control the real vig if framer survives the day.

Arsonist on jailor cc's TP as doc claim and ignites as soon as night appears.

Night 2

If witch causes the sheriff claim to be framed, mafia kills the sheriff. If witch causes the vig claim to be framed, mafia kills the vig. If the framer target controlled by witch hasn't claimed any role, the mafia member prepares a claim from the killed role and a non-claimer or TP is being hit. Killed person's will must be forged: if it's sheriff, the will should contain N1 sheriff report and N2 report with already made up result. If it's outed vig, the will should be prepared to frame by shooting a townie. If it's someone else, a will should have multiple claims showing it's obviously fake.

Day 3

If vig was killed, mafia tries to push on vig target. Otherwise, mafia calls a disguiser was killed and forger claims transing a mafia member into the killed person. If sheriff has a sus report, the guiltied maf member claims transed and forger confirms the maf member being transed into killed person. Spy outs a RM visit on alive which should be on maf member if witch did this right. The maf member claims the role of the killed person. Mafia tries to make it clear that the trans transed somebody else into the kill who was a disguiser and third person was the disguised, which makes 3 maf members look like clear. Those people try to lead a lynch on townies. Witch is asked to control jailor or vig.

Night 3

If medium is outed, mafia kills the medium and forges to cover up the fact that the previous will was forged. Otherwise, kill the towniest person with the priority of TI.

Rest of the game: push on townies.