Town of Salem Game Forums

Arcthurus wrote:

Rickdaily12 wrote:It would take a LOT of bad luck though. Blue would have to draw LFF, and as I said, if this is a 4b 4r deck, he's quite likely to be able to force LL on Albanix anyway (which he should, by the way, going on record right now that no one should be choicing on LLF EVER as of now), and if it's not currently a 4b 4r deck, then the Fascists are probably rather concentrated on the side of former Presidents anyway.

but if its 4b 4r arent the odds of drawing LLF and LFF the same

compared to the usual odds of drawing LLF when you start with 6 blues and 11 reds-

then yes, this is much higher than typical odds of drawing LLF than one could expect under the normal average of the deck.

yeah but the way you put it makes it sound like LLF is more likely than LFF right now which is what actually matters isnt it

look that probably doesnt matter
what does matter is knowing what to do as contingency and what it actually means
i feel like talking about it before she does anything also brings a level of wifom im not comfortable with lol

Arcthurus wrote:yeah but the way you put it makes it sound like LLF is more likely than LFF right now which is what actually matters isnt it

If Hitler is Chancellor, and is handed LF, he has no way of knowing what just happened. The President has equal odds of drawing LFF as Liberal as drawing LLF. In both cases, the Liberal President could hand him LF. Or, his Fascist President drew LLF and handed him LF.

The point is that Hitler has no way of knowing the difference from his own viewpoint as the Chancellor. Both are just about as statistically unlikely as each other.

He could try to reason whether or not Blue is likely to be Liberal based on the Liberal check, but the fact is, the deck has been pretty favorable for the Fascists so far. Probably because Fascists have already been touching it. And it would make perfect sense for Fascist!Bluedetroyer to play blue on choice versus Liberal!EvilD in order to protect Fascist!Albanix. It would be almost virtually indistinguishable from Liberal!Bluedetroyer getting peeked as a Liberal by Liberal OR Fascist!Albanix.

Hitler has no idea what's going on if he conflicts Bluedetroyer by playing the F in LF here. If he conflicts, he might freeze a Fascist, or at least make another Fascist VERY likely to get shot. That, and if he conflicts Liberal!Bluedetroyer, he's much more likely to get shot for it too.

All of these reasons make it not ideal for Hitler to conflict Bluedetroyer.

The only way Hitler could know for a fact that Blue is a Fascist RIGHT NOW is if H!Albanix peeked Bluedetroyer as Fascist. But then she STILL doesn't want Blue's government to go Red, because she's the one who gets implicated the hardest when it does.

QED, probably the only aligned role that would conflict Bluedetroyer if Blue is a Liberal right now is a Regular Fascist.

Arcthurus wrote:look that probably doesnt matter
what does matter is knowing what to do as contingency and what it actually means
i feel like talking about it before she does anything also brings a level of wifom im not comfortable with lol

No, I think I'm much more fine with things as they stand now. I was worried earlier, but I think I have solid contingencies now about what to do next if Fascist!Albanix outs.

I'm actually glad we talked about it because I don't feel like I need to be paranoid about it anymore. I'm pretty sure my alternatives work out pretty well for us.

No need to discuss them right now, though. This government should go blue, or most likely Albanix sacrifices herself as a Fascist. Probably not a favorable outcome for their team.

theres still a couple of possibilities that im tinfoiling but im guessing its best not to feed those thoughts huh

Arcthurus wrote:theres still a couple of possibilities that im tinfoiling but im guessing its best not to feed those thoughts huh

depends on how much you enjoy watching me in agony as I drown myself in paranoia

LFF
Going back to bed

EvilDeanius0 wrote:LFF
Going back to bed

Neat

So it's a 4b 4r deck unless Phone/Albanix/EvilD tossed.

Rickdaily12 wrote:

EvilDeanius0 wrote:LFF
Going back to bed

Neat

So it's a 4b 4r deck unless Phone/Albanix/EvilD tossed.

Scratch that. Albanix couldn't have tossed. EvilD couldn't have tossed.

Phone is Fascist if this isn't a 4b 4r deck. It's actually confirmed.

Arcthurus wrote: Spoiler: regf alb h timur

get shot to unfreeze the "ez lib" chancelor
400 iq play

oh wait timur posted first didnt he you even scolded him lol
nevermind we are good

Arcthurus wrote: Spoiler: regf alb h timur

get shot to unfreeze the "ez lib" chancelor
400 iq play

or we just make Timur President and freeze him again when he doesn't play blues

which is probably the better play

oh lol sure

Rickdaily12 wrote:

Rickdaily12 wrote:

EvilDeanius0 wrote:LFF
Going back to bed

Neat

So it's a 4b 4r deck unless Phone/Albanix/EvilD tossed.

Scratch that. Albanix couldn't have tossed. EvilD couldn't have tossed.

Phone is Fascist if this isn't a 4b 4r deck. It's actually confirmed.

why couldnt they have tossed?

Arcthurus wrote:

Rickdaily12 wrote:

Rickdaily12 wrote:

EvilDeanius0 wrote:LFF
Going back to bed

Neat

So it's a 4b 4r deck unless Phone/Albanix/EvilD tossed.

Scratch that. Albanix couldn't have tossed. EvilD couldn't have tossed.

Phone is Fascist if this isn't a 4b 4r deck. It's actually confirmed.

why couldnt they have tossed?

Liberal!Albanix could not have been conflicted if she drew LLF (she would have forced), and Phone is saying that EvilD is Liberal and would never toss blues.

So Phone is literally confirmed Fascist if a blue went missing and this is not a 4b 4r deck.

It's theoretically possible that Albanix drew LLF as Fascist, and both her and timur double tossed, but the way they're acting toward each other really doesn't support this. It doesn't make sense for her to have done what she did no matter how you cut it because it would require her to freeze Hitler or another Regular Fascist, which is just not ideal.

It also doesn't fit their interactions. A Liberal in that pair is clearly irritated by their being frozen right now.

how would we know if this is 4b 4r

Arcthurus wrote:how would we know if this is 4b 4r

When the deck runs out, count the blue claims, and then be a nerd

Rickdaily12 wrote:

Arcthurus wrote:how would we know if this is 4b 4r

When the deck runs out, count the blue claims, and then be a nerd

oh ok why did you skip the first two steps then

Arcthurus wrote:

Rickdaily12 wrote:

Arcthurus wrote:how would we know if this is 4b 4r

When the deck runs out, count the blue claims, and then be a nerd

oh ok why did you skip the first two steps then

First two steps?

1. run out the deck
2. count blue claims
3. be a nerd

Arcthurus wrote:1. run out the deck
2. count blue claims
3. be a nerd

All I'm really getting at is that if the number of blue claims in the deck points to someone having tossed a blue at this stage, Phone is the most responsible of that trio.

It makes sense. Albanix is claiming that her government already tossed one of the blues being claimed, and EvilD is Phone's Liberal peek.

ok i get it

nerd

Arcthurus wrote:ok i get it

nerd

no u

whats the next order of business aka next thing to be paranoid over
or have we exhausted the field of non-unknowns