VFM 49: SK win #rekt

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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Chemist1422 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:28 pm

It's not effectively MyLo

It's 6v1v1, so a mislynch+mis-shot is LyLo
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Rickdaily12 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:30 pm

Chemist1422 wrote:It's not effectively MyLo

It's 6v1v1, so a mislynch+mis-shot is LyLo

Chemist, any Scum kill is a -1 to kill power. At least one, possibly two of the Scum could be weak to the Vig attack. Vig always shoots here.

Mislynches + all three KP missing scum = lost MyLo, so yes, for all intents of purposes, this IS MyLo, and Vig should claim.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Chemist1422 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:31 pm

oh

Why did no one tell me my math was wrong this entire time
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Qvapil » Mon May 20, 2019 1:32 pm

I only skimmed through today's discussions till now so tell me if I missed something major. I saw ejji's math and I'm a bit worried about the SK. Mostly because I believe we can find the last mafia much easier, by associations and interactions with uzay and cupcake, but I have no clue how the SK would play here especially since we don't know what immunity they chose.

Ejji I why don't you think goomba is the SK? I agree that they're probably not mafia due to their D1 vote but during D2 they were following the thread but not really saying anything. Like, they were there but kinda not there? I can't explain it very well, but I think it's something I'd do as SK. Goomba could you give us some quick reads? Not anything as deep as your D1 post, just some thoughts on who you think could be the last mafia or the SK.

Ejji I remember you asked me how I read you, I think you're town but I haven't iso'd neither you or uzay yet. After I look into uzay a bit more I'll give a more solid answer. But I do have a weird tinfoil about you, though I can't find the exact post. Somewhere during D2 Flake was discussing the night kills and said he found it weird he were still alive, then you answered him that you thought Dash should have been a higher priority target compared to phone and eragon. Though I agree with you on that point, is it too deep in the realms of science fiction to assume that you were scum signalling to the other evil faction? To like, coordinate a Dash kill? Or am I too tired.

About the last mafia, tfios does seem a promising target. I remember flake townreading tfios yesterday though and uzay questioned that townread. Flake wasn't really being questioned at that point (though I was also arguing against tfios) so do you guys think uzay would try to pull his mate into the poe pools while flake had him solidly in town? I think it's possible, especially since the post in question doesn't give much insight into tfios and doesn't really risk him in the pool he's into.

UzayAltay wrote:
0verki11 wrote:Crimson | 8 | Qvaril, Dash2, Uzayaltay, Flake, Chemist1422, Zucker, Tfoisforevah, Rickdaily12 , ; Cupcakej2 |3 | Grumpygoomba, Ejjinami, Protozigg ; Dash2 | 1 | Eragon1329 ; Uzayaltay | 1 | Cupcakej2 ; Chemist | 1 | , Crimson97,


TBH I am thinking different than Flake here .

My Pool is
Either
1( Goomba , protoo ) , 1 ( Qva , Chem , Rick )
Or 2 ( Qva , Chem , Rick , Zucker , tfios}

About tfios , there are posts Like 3169181 or 3169935I Dont Like , so not aggreeing on tfios being lock-town with Flake .



One last thing, I don't think proto/debil is mafia. I pointed this post out yesterday:

Qvapil wrote:
ProtoZigg wrote:/vote cupcake

I disagree


This vote was just after I voted crimson, and I was the first vote there. I think it's unlikely proto is cupcake's buddy here


The timing of the vote is weird for them to be buddies. Proto directly opposed a starting crimson wagon to vote cupcake, and he was townreading me before that point.
However, I do think they could be SK, because their lack of engagement with the thread could be an SK giving up on a difficult to win game (if this is angleshooty ignore it). On vfm48 where they were town (assuming it's triangular) they were much more active.

Anyway I think chemist is definetely not SK, they could be maf if tfios is town but I haven't read them carefully yet.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby ejjinami » Mon May 20, 2019 1:32 pm

gtg
I think I might be able to post today again before going to sleep, but can't guarantee anything.
My exams are starting soon an I have a relatively easy one tomorrow, but studying to it might still take some time

a reminder just in case, so that you don't forget
@seth answer my posts, please

P,Edit:
Rickdaily12 wrote:I'm fucking mad

Windows 10 just hijacked my computer to do updates without my content and just completely destroyed 2+ hours of VCA

I do not fucking need this right now

/pat ):

sigh
we're not in mylo if the vig doesn't shoot.
I think I might have found the right way to play here, but I have to think about it a bit more and I don't have time to write it now anyway ):
please, don't claim yet.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Qvapil » Mon May 20, 2019 1:33 pm

I wrote that before reading the last page
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby ejjinami » Mon May 20, 2019 1:35 pm

Chemist1422 wrote:oh

Why did no one tell me my math was wrong this entire time

1. it wasn't

and 2. qvap, I saw you mentioning my name in the wall, so I jsut wanted to say that I'll answer later

really gtg
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Qvapil » Mon May 20, 2019 1:37 pm

ejjinami wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:oh

Why did no one tell me my math was wrong this entire time

1. it wasn't

and 2. qvap, I saw you mentioning my name in the wall, so I jsut wanted to say that I'll answer later

really gtg


Alright ejj good luck at your exams
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Seththeking » Mon May 20, 2019 1:38 pm

Rickdaily12 wrote:Ok, so here's my approach to today.

When my computer stops being a nazi, I'm going to try to do another indepth analysis of VCA again. Hopefully in that time I can stop being absolutely enraged in the process.

After that, I'm going to update my reads.

In the meantime, I have a suggestion.

As it is currently effectively MyLo, the Vig should claim today. I know a lot of people have already argued against this so far, and I don't know if you did it for shortsighted reasons or if you don't understand the consequences of this, but the claim needs to happen now. Reasons why:

1. If people keep being themselves and searching for two scum who cannot associate with each other from now on, if someone's strongest SR 24 hours from now is the Vig, they have wasted the entire day for nothing and you now force that person to guess within their remaining PoE with weaker accuracy.

2. Building on the above, everyone's PoE becomes stronger with one less suspect on the list, as we'll have more time to look over everyone else between now and EoD.

3. The Vig has a high likihood of dying after tonight if we mislynch regardless. Outting the Vig also increasing the chances of Scum targetting the same player (we WIFOM mafia and SK into hitting the same target if they try to gamble on whether to be the one to kill the vig or not)

Basically I see every reason for the vig to out and virtually zero reasons not to. With the amount of killing power in the game, it just really doesn't matter at this point. Vigs should claim in every MyLo anyway, it's pretty much straight forward meta.

Let's not waste any time today.

If anyone has any questions that I'm not about to spend time answering anyway, please bump them and I'll get back to them later at some point, but I'm going to start with the flips.


I highly agree with this as I stated at the start of Day 1.
Because me and Rick have the same Thought this is locked Town for me.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Rickdaily12 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:40 pm

Ok, my computer is up again, so I'll return to trying to summarize my ruined VCA with intense saltiness. While I do that, I just want to remind everyone, since our priorities seem to be a bit questionable at best here.

We are down to two Scum with the same power as each other but with different alignments. IF your argument for Town reading someone is because you don't view them as one of the alignments, this is no longer a good enough reason, especially now that we are in MyLo.

Not being Mafia OR not being SK is not good enough anymore. You need to find reasons for both at this point, as both lynches are just as important as each other for now. I'm going to try to use the dead flips to at least help us sort out the last Mafia, but while I'm doing that, remember that this isn't just about Mafia hunting anymore. IIRC just from loosely reading earlier I thought I saw people referring to their strongest Town read as simply being not one of the scum alignments without ruliing out both. We can't be doing that anymore. We need to find our best suspects who have a good chance at being both, and we need to help the Vig do this as well.

Alright, I'm going to be walling for a bit now.

ejjinami wrote:sigh
we're not in mylo if the vig doesn't shoot.
I think I might have found the right way to play here, but I have to think about it a bit more and I don't have time to write it now anyway ):
please, don't claim yet.

This is really not a good idea, ejj. Vig shouldn't be holstering this late in the game, especially if we mislynch, if it's so likely at this point that they die in the process. There's a lot of go off of for other people as well in this stage of the game.

Even if we do correctly lynch today, they can help narrow down PoE in case they do die, and this also solves problems 1 and 2 if people waste time scum reading the Vig. Vig should absolutely be claiming today and they should help us try to solve the game as best they can, and we need them to out in order to do this. We cannot waste any time doubting what a confirmed Town member says today.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Rickdaily12 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:43 pm

I suppose I can wait for an alternate suggestion if it can come soon, but we need every hour we can get at this point.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Seththeking » Mon May 20, 2019 1:45 pm

Rickdaily12 wrote:I suppose I can wait for an alternate suggestion if it can come soon, but we need every hour we can get at this point.


Do you think Tfios’s last post was a Vigilante Slip?
Do you think GrumpyGoomba/Ejji is Mafia?
Do you think Chemist is Serial Killer?
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Seththeking » Mon May 20, 2019 1:47 pm

My Town Reads:
Rick
Qva
Tfios (Only if they claim Vigilante)

My Scum Reads:
Chemist (Probably Serial Killer)
Ejji (Possible Mafia)
GrumpyGoomba (Possible Mafia)

Null:
TheDebil
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Chemist1422 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:47 pm

Seththeking wrote:
Rickdaily12 wrote:Ok, so here's my approach to today.

When my computer stops being a nazi, I'm going to try to do another indepth analysis of VCA again. Hopefully in that time I can stop being absolutely enraged in the process.

After that, I'm going to update my reads.

In the meantime, I have a suggestion.

As it is currently effectively MyLo, the Vig should claim today. I know a lot of people have already argued against this so far, and I don't know if you did it for shortsighted reasons or if you don't understand the consequences of this, but the claim needs to happen now. Reasons why:

1. If people keep being themselves and searching for two scum who cannot associate with each other from now on, if someone's strongest SR 24 hours from now is the Vig, they have wasted the entire day for nothing and you now force that person to guess within their remaining PoE with weaker accuracy.

2. Building on the above, everyone's PoE becomes stronger with one less suspect on the list, as we'll have more time to look over everyone else between now and EoD.

3. The Vig has a high likihood of dying after tonight if we mislynch regardless. Outting the Vig also increasing the chances of Scum targetting the same player (we WIFOM mafia and SK into hitting the same target if they try to gamble on whether to be the one to kill the vig or not)

Basically I see every reason for the vig to out and virtually zero reasons not to. With the amount of killing power in the game, it just really doesn't matter at this point. Vigs should claim in every MyLo anyway, it's pretty much straight forward meta.

Let's not waste any time today.

If anyone has any questions that I'm not about to spend time answering anyway, please bump them and I'll get back to them later at some point, but I'm going to start with the flips.


I highly agree with this as I stated at the start of Day 1.
Because me and Rick have the same Thought this is locked Town for me.

How did you have a MyLo plan at the start of D1

Also that's the worst reason to townread someone
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Seththeking » Mon May 20, 2019 1:48 pm

Chemist1422 wrote:
Seththeking wrote:
Rickdaily12 wrote:Ok, so here's my approach to today.

When my computer stops being a nazi, I'm going to try to do another indepth analysis of VCA again. Hopefully in that time I can stop being absolutely enraged in the process.

After that, I'm going to update my reads.

In the meantime, I have a suggestion.

As it is currently effectively MyLo, the Vig should claim today. I know a lot of people have already argued against this so far, and I don't know if you did it for shortsighted reasons or if you don't understand the consequences of this, but the claim needs to happen now. Reasons why:

1. If people keep being themselves and searching for two scum who cannot associate with each other from now on, if someone's strongest SR 24 hours from now is the Vig, they have wasted the entire day for nothing and you now force that person to guess within their remaining PoE with weaker accuracy.

2. Building on the above, everyone's PoE becomes stronger with one less suspect on the list, as we'll have more time to look over everyone else between now and EoD.

3. The Vig has a high likihood of dying after tonight if we mislynch regardless. Outting the Vig also increasing the chances of Scum targetting the same player (we WIFOM mafia and SK into hitting the same target if they try to gamble on whether to be the one to kill the vig or not)

Basically I see every reason for the vig to out and virtually zero reasons not to. With the amount of killing power in the game, it just really doesn't matter at this point. Vigs should claim in every MyLo anyway, it's pretty much straight forward meta.

Let's not waste any time today.

If anyone has any questions that I'm not about to spend time answering anyway, please bump them and I'll get back to them later at some point, but I'm going to start with the flips.


I highly agree with this as I stated at the start of Day 1.
Because me and Rick have the same Thought this is locked Town for me.

How did you have a MyLo plan at the start of D1

Also that's the worst reason to townread someone


But that’s how you Town Read people this game.
You compared what you’d do to what they would do as Town.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby TheDebil » Mon May 20, 2019 1:49 pm

ok i just barely reached page 19 and have not reached the good parts yet
im just gonna pull out some of my notes here and go chill, probably will end up skimming through the rest because paying attention takes too damn long
pretty obvious but im pretty confident in eragon betting bopped by the mafia since he was heavily doubting in uzay being towny and debunking some of the reads on him

zucker-
Spoiler: page 1 uzay was annoyed at zucker for the claim, nai, but does not feel orchestrated at all. especially so early d1 i dont think this kind of reaction comes from a MvM. i feel scum zucker would not claim cit here, and tunnel dash which would give him this ammount of attention and backlash.
however, on page 7 zucker is discussing with qvapil and when qvapil says that flake is worse than dash on the matter of contribution and trying to fit in,zucker disagrees but doesnt necesarrily defend flake here. he just says he would lynch him later if he kept being scummy which feels kind of fencesitty, like he cant pick a side or commit to his tunnel. uzay however is very vague about the entire tunnel on dash, and the only thing he says about it is the fact that he thinks that its not a SvS situation, which feels like he was hoping for a double lynch
moving on to page 12 he is skipping all text just to inform everyone that tfios is doing NAI shit, pog. however he makes it clear that he is scumreading both flake and dash here
he's been playing like dumpster but i think he is town here, early interactions with uzay clear him from being scum imo and i do not think scum would be so awfully bold and wrong, which also clears him of sk, since sk would play a bit more carefully, and this is not the case here

ejji-
Spoiler: start of the game is odd, memey. a bunch of jokes with grumpy and slightly pockety relation with rick early game
page 5 - uzay call out ejji for being pockety for TR'ing him,and it does not feel like a SvS interaction exactly, unless uzay is trying to get an early bus in.
later on on the same page however, that is thrown out the window as he says that the townreads on him are NAI, as he thinks that there are too many townreads on him, and calls the group of qva/dash/ejji NAI. this makes ejji much more suspicious in this scenario. ejji is actually the main focus of uzays post there, which is extremely concerning. this feels like potential damage control by uzay, and just feels very off to me.
later on, ejji starts posting more herself, other than her answering rather awkwardly to the SK vs mafia question there isnt much that is very noteworthy or AI, in my opinion. late page 18, i also noticed a TL on cupcake, which striked me as odd, probably explained at some point though
this slot has a decent chance to flip mafia in my opinion.

tfios-
Spoiler: nothing in the iso other than the cit claim and asking why she is being suspected for it, which is quite interesting, because she clearly saw that she was being suspected, but a request for reads was ignored. probably a lazy slot, null for me, but should get vigged regardless, just to not have it linger late game as im 99% sure they didnt do anything d2 or late d1 either (correct me if im wrong)
chemist-
Spoiler: also a low quality slot, low ammount of posts and a lot of agreement with dash, which backfires. not much comments, null since as far as i remember there were reasons for that inactivity
grumpy- (actually i changed my mind on grumpy after taking a more careful look at my read)
Spoiler: aimlessly memes for the majority of my read, i think the reactions to him are more indicative here.
page 5, uzay responds to one of qvapil's posts meming with him (i think he said something like "wow you are distracting us from the real danger- the host") and takes it seriously, claiming that he can see grumpy as deflecting. i think this shade makes him aa bit townier, however, the scumread makes little sense, so im kind of torn on this, feels like a forced scumread by uzay. otherwise, not much of note, he responds to dash's callout by being apologetic and the thing that probably helps him the most is the fact that no one was really defending him, but this doesnt help on him being SK
changed my read from never scum, maybe SK to an overall scumlean, dont like his early content and uzay's reaction to him but its possibly a slot to look into more given ejji's response now

qvapil-
Spoiler: starts off by meming with uzay, the entire interaction is a bit off to me but its not necesarrily AI. it may be nothing, but im leaning towards uzay trying lach himself onto qvapil here
his game continues with him TR'ing uzay, and uzay responds back by calling his townread NAI. refuses uzay's advances to push on grumpy by saying he was joking, but then later says he was half serious and that he didnt like grumpy's post, which smells slightly fishy.
uzay then continues to make relations with qva, asking flake to question him.
qvapil later decides to attack flake, which to me seems to have relation.
in general, this slot probably has the most relations to uzay, but it feels too obvious to be a scummate. from the interactions, it seems like uzay was trying to buddy with him, and potentially frame him as a teammate. could be SK still. overall a slight TR

rick- Spoiler: maybe he is like that in all games but his play the entire time ive read rubbed me off wrongly. especially early on, most of his posts have been very roundabout and pockety.
tries to be friendly with ejji and eragon, reads pretty much anyone he mentions as town, and does not really do anything with his scum reads. phone feels a bit too confident? very next post, he backs down and says he likes tinfoiling. also claims a dislike to grumpy and zucker, but never does anything with those. this to me screams SK behavior, a player being careful, not really causing much drama and staying out of radar to me is an SK. and in addition to that he telling us he thinks we need to try and lynch mafia first.

MoustachioMario-
Spoiler: MoustachioMario
TLDR
(zucker, MoustachioMario)
(qvapil)
(tfios, chemist)
(grumpy)
(ejji, rick)

ejji i think is mafia
rick i think is SK
pog if this is solved by pages 1-18 but i kinda doubt that
just posted this so i can atleast have posted something
definetly skimming tommorow
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Seththeking » Mon May 20, 2019 1:50 pm

/Vote Chemist

I really can’t handle you anymore this game.
After what you, Dash and Crimson pulled their was Scum in their and your the only one who remains.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Seththeking » Mon May 20, 2019 1:51 pm

TheDebil wrote:ok i just barely reached page 19 and have not reached the good parts yet
im just gonna pull out some of my notes here and go chill, probably will end up skimming through the rest because paying attention takes too damn long
pretty obvious but im pretty confident in eragon betting bopped by the mafia since he was heavily doubting in uzay being towny and debunking some of the reads on him

zucker-
Spoiler: page 1 uzay was annoyed at zucker for the claim, nai, but does not feel orchestrated at all. especially so early d1 i dont think this kind of reaction comes from a MvM. i feel scum zucker would not claim cit here, and tunnel dash which would give him this ammount of attention and backlash.
however, on page 7 zucker is discussing with qvapil and when qvapil says that flake is worse than dash on the matter of contribution and trying to fit in,zucker disagrees but doesnt necesarrily defend flake here. he just says he would lynch him later if he kept being scummy which feels kind of fencesitty, like he cant pick a side or commit to his tunnel. uzay however is very vague about the entire tunnel on dash, and the only thing he says about it is the fact that he thinks that its not a SvS situation, which feels like he was hoping for a double lynch
moving on to page 12 he is skipping all text just to inform everyone that tfios is doing NAI shit, pog. however he makes it clear that he is scumreading both flake and dash here
he's been playing like dumpster but i think he is town here, early interactions with uzay clear him from being scum imo and i do not think scum would be so awfully bold and wrong, which also clears him of sk, since sk would play a bit more carefully, and this is not the case here

ejji-
Spoiler: start of the game is odd, memey. a bunch of jokes with grumpy and slightly pockety relation with rick early game
page 5 - uzay call out ejji for being pockety for TR'ing him,and it does not feel like a SvS interaction exactly, unless uzay is trying to get an early bus in.
later on on the same page however, that is thrown out the window as he says that the townreads on him are NAI, as he thinks that there are too many townreads on him, and calls the group of qva/dash/ejji NAI. this makes ejji much more suspicious in this scenario. ejji is actually the main focus of uzays post there, which is extremely concerning. this feels like potential damage control by uzay, and just feels very off to me.
later on, ejji starts posting more herself, other than her answering rather awkwardly to the SK vs mafia question there isnt much that is very noteworthy or AI, in my opinion. late page 18, i also noticed a TL on cupcake, which striked me as odd, probably explained at some point though
this slot has a decent chance to flip mafia in my opinion.

tfios-
Spoiler: nothing in the iso other than the cit claim and asking why she is being suspected for it, which is quite interesting, because she clearly saw that she was being suspected, but a request for reads was ignored. probably a lazy slot, null for me, but should get vigged regardless, just to not have it linger late game as im 99% sure they didnt do anything d2 or late d1 either (correct me if im wrong)
chemist-
Spoiler: also a low quality slot, low ammount of posts and a lot of agreement with dash, which backfires. not much comments, null since as far as i remember there were reasons for that inactivity
grumpy- (actually i changed my mind on grumpy after taking a more careful look at my read)
Spoiler: aimlessly memes for the majority of my read, i think the reactions to him are more indicative here.
page 5, uzay responds to one of qvapil's posts meming with him (i think he said something like "wow you are distracting us from the real danger- the host") and takes it seriously, claiming that he can see grumpy as deflecting. i think this shade makes him aa bit townier, however, the scumread makes little sense, so im kind of torn on this, feels like a forced scumread by uzay. otherwise, not much of note, he responds to dash's callout by being apologetic and the thing that probably helps him the most is the fact that no one was really defending him, but this doesnt help on him being SK
changed my read from never scum, maybe SK to an overall scumlean, dont like his early content and uzay's reaction to him but its possibly a slot to look into more given ejji's response now

qvapil-
Spoiler: starts off by meming with uzay, the entire interaction is a bit off to me but its not necesarrily AI. it may be nothing, but im leaning towards uzay trying lach himself onto qvapil here
his game continues with him TR'ing uzay, and uzay responds back by calling his townread NAI. refuses uzay's advances to push on grumpy by saying he was joking, but then later says he was half serious and that he didnt like grumpy's post, which smells slightly fishy.
uzay then continues to make relations with qva, asking flake to question him.
qvapil later decides to attack flake, which to me seems to have relation.
in general, this slot probably has the most relations to uzay, but it feels too obvious to be a scummate. from the interactions, it seems like uzay was trying to buddy with him, and potentially frame him as a teammate. could be SK still. overall a slight TR

rick- Spoiler: maybe he is like that in all games but his play the entire time ive read rubbed me off wrongly. especially early on, most of his posts have been very roundabout and pockety.
tries to be friendly with ejji and eragon, reads pretty much anyone he mentions as town, and does not really do anything with his scum reads. phone feels a bit too confident? very next post, he backs down and says he likes tinfoiling. also claims a dislike to grumpy and zucker, but never does anything with those. this to me screams SK behavior, a player being careful, not really causing much drama and staying out of radar to me is an SK. and in addition to that he telling us he thinks we need to try and lynch mafia first.

MoustachioMario-
Spoiler: MoustachioMario
TLDR
(zucker, MoustachioMario)
(qvapil)
(tfios, chemist)
(grumpy)
(ejji, rick)

ejji i think is mafia
rick i think is SK
pog if this is solved by pages 1-18 but i kinda doubt that
just posted this so i can atleast have posted something
definetly skimming tommorow



Ok yeah.
I’ll let it slide for now Chem.
Let’s vote Mafia today.
I’ll give you an extra day to stab someone.

/Vote Ejji
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Chemist1422 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:52 pm

Seththeking wrote:/Vote Chemist

I really can’t handle you anymore this game.
After what you, Dash and Crimson pulled their was Scum in their and your the only one who remains.

Seth, I've been making an effort to stay polite but you're being extremely difficult to work with

I ask you to stop tunneling and you continue with no regard for my posts

You're also refusing to answer my questions and telling me to do it myself, when it's about your reads
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Chemist1422 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:53 pm

Spoiler:
Seththeking wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:
Seththeking wrote:
Rickdaily12 wrote:Ok, so here's my approach to today.

When my computer stops being a nazi, I'm going to try to do another indepth analysis of VCA again. Hopefully in that time I can stop being absolutely enraged in the process.

After that, I'm going to update my reads.

In the meantime, I have a suggestion.

As it is currently effectively MyLo, the Vig should claim today. I know a lot of people have already argued against this so far, and I don't know if you did it for shortsighted reasons or if you don't understand the consequences of this, but the claim needs to happen now. Reasons why:

1. If people keep being themselves and searching for two scum who cannot associate with each other from now on, if someone's strongest SR 24 hours from now is the Vig, they have wasted the entire day for nothing and you now force that person to guess within their remaining PoE with weaker accuracy.

2. Building on the above, everyone's PoE becomes stronger with one less suspect on the list, as we'll have more time to look over everyone else between now and EoD.

3. The Vig has a high likihood of dying after tonight if we mislynch regardless. Outting the Vig also increasing the chances of Scum targetting the same player (we WIFOM mafia and SK into hitting the same target if they try to gamble on whether to be the one to kill the vig or not)

Basically I see every reason for the vig to out and virtually zero reasons not to. With the amount of killing power in the game, it just really doesn't matter at this point. Vigs should claim in every MyLo anyway, it's pretty much straight forward meta.

Let's not waste any time today.

If anyone has any questions that I'm not about to spend time answering anyway, please bump them and I'll get back to them later at some point, but I'm going to start with the flips.


I highly agree with this as I stated at the start of Day 1.
Because me and Rick have the same Thought this is locked Town for me.

How did you have a MyLo plan at the start of D1

Also that's the worst reason to townread someone


But that’s how you Town Read people this game.
You compared what you’d do to what they would do as Town.

No

That's not how it works

That's not how any of this works
TheDebil wrote:ok i just barely reached page 19 and have not reached the good parts yet
im just gonna pull out some of my notes here and go chill, probably will end up skimming through the rest because paying attention takes too damn long
pretty obvious but im pretty confident in eragon betting bopped by the mafia since he was heavily doubting in uzay being towny and debunking some of the reads on him

zucker-
[spoiler]page 1 uzay was annoyed at zucker for the claim, nai, but does not feel orchestrated at all. especially so early d1 i dont think this kind of reaction comes from a MvM. i feel scum zucker would not claim cit here, and tunnel dash which would give him this ammount of attention and backlash.
however, on page 7 zucker is discussing with qvapil and when qvapil says that flake is worse than dash on the matter of contribution and trying to fit in,zucker disagrees but doesnt necesarrily defend flake here. he just says he would lynch him later if he kept being scummy which feels kind of fencesitty, like he cant pick a side or commit to his tunnel. uzay however is very vague about the entire tunnel on dash, and the only thing he says about it is the fact that he thinks that its not a SvS situation, which feels like he was hoping for a double lynch
moving on to page 12 he is skipping all text just to inform everyone that tfios is doing NAI shit, pog. however he makes it clear that he is scumreading both flake and dash here
he's been playing like dumpster but i think he is town here, early interactions with uzay clear him from being scum imo and i do not think scum would be so awfully bold and wrong, which also clears him of sk, since sk would play a bit more carefully, and this is not the case here
ejji-
Spoiler: start of the game is odd, memey. a bunch of jokes with grumpy and slightly pockety relation with rick early game
page 5 - uzay call out ejji for being pockety for TR'ing him,and it does not feel like a SvS interaction exactly, unless uzay is trying to get an early bus in.
later on on the same page however, that is thrown out the window as he says that the townreads on him are NAI, as he thinks that there are too many townreads on him, and calls the group of qva/dash/ejji NAI. this makes ejji much more suspicious in this scenario. ejji is actually the main focus of uzays post there, which is extremely concerning. this feels like potential damage control by uzay, and just feels very off to me.
later on, ejji starts posting more herself, other than her answering rather awkwardly to the SK vs mafia question there isnt much that is very noteworthy or AI, in my opinion. late page 18, i also noticed a TL on cupcake, which striked me as odd, probably explained at some point though
this slot has a decent chance to flip mafia in my opinion.

tfios-
Spoiler: nothing in the iso other than the cit claim and asking why she is being suspected for it, which is quite interesting, because she clearly saw that she was being suspected, but a request for reads was ignored. probably a lazy slot, null for me, but should get vigged regardless, just to not have it linger late game as im 99% sure they didnt do anything d2 or late d1 either (correct me if im wrong)
chemist-
Spoiler: also a low quality slot, low ammount of posts and a lot of agreement with dash, which backfires. not much comments, null since as far as i remember there were reasons for that inactivity
grumpy- (actually i changed my mind on grumpy after taking a more careful look at my read)
Spoiler: aimlessly memes for the majority of my read, i think the reactions to him are more indicative here.
page 5, uzay responds to one of qvapil's posts meming with him (i think he said something like "wow you are distracting us from the real danger- the host") and takes it seriously, claiming that he can see grumpy as deflecting. i think this shade makes him aa bit townier, however, the scumread makes little sense, so im kind of torn on this, feels like a forced scumread by uzay. otherwise, not much of note, he responds to dash's callout by being apologetic and the thing that probably helps him the most is the fact that no one was really defending him, but this doesnt help on him being SK
changed my read from never scum, maybe SK to an overall scumlean, dont like his early content and uzay's reaction to him but its possibly a slot to look into more given ejji's response now

qvapil-
Spoiler: starts off by meming with uzay, the entire interaction is a bit off to me but its not necesarrily AI. it may be nothing, but im leaning towards uzay trying lach himself onto qvapil here
his game continues with him TR'ing uzay, and uzay responds back by calling his townread NAI. refuses uzay's advances to push on grumpy by saying he was joking, but then later says he was half serious and that he didnt like grumpy's post, which smells slightly fishy.
uzay then continues to make relations with qva, asking flake to question him.
qvapil later decides to attack flake, which to me seems to have relation.
in general, this slot probably has the most relations to uzay, but it feels too obvious to be a scummate. from the interactions, it seems like uzay was trying to buddy with him, and potentially frame him as a teammate. could be SK still. overall a slight TR

rick- Spoiler: maybe he is like that in all games but his play the entire time ive read rubbed me off wrongly. especially early on, most of his posts have been very roundabout and pockety.
tries to be friendly with ejji and eragon, reads pretty much anyone he mentions as town, and does not really do anything with his scum reads. phone feels a bit too confident? very next post, he backs down and says he likes tinfoiling. also claims a dislike to grumpy and zucker, but never does anything with those. this to me screams SK behavior, a player being careful, not really causing much drama and staying out of radar to me is an SK. and in addition to that he telling us he thinks we need to try and lynch mafia first.

MoustachioMario-
Spoiler: MoustachioMario
TLDR
(zucker, MoustachioMario)
(qvapil)
(tfios, chemist)
(grumpy)
(ejji, rick)

ejji i think is mafia
rick i think is SK
pog if this is solved by pages 1-18 but i kinda doubt that
just posted this so i can atleast have posted something
definetly skimming tommorow

thank you for justifying my townread on your slot[/spoiler]
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Qvapil » Mon May 20, 2019 1:56 pm

Seth if you're sure on both mafia and SK, isn't it more beneficial to lynch the SK and shoot the maf at night? Though I don't think it matters so much.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Seththeking » Mon May 20, 2019 1:58 pm

Chemist1422 wrote:
Seththeking wrote:/Vote Chemist

I really can’t handle you anymore this game.
After what you, Dash and Crimson pulled their was Scum in their and your the only one who remains.

Seth, I've been making an effort to stay polite but you're being extremely difficult to work with

I ask you to stop tunneling and you continue with no regard for my posts

You're also refusing to answer my questions and telling me to do it myself, when it's about your reads


Well like look at all Alive players ISO’s and you should be smart enough to get Reads from it.
I’m not trying to Tunnel here’s I just don’t want to lynch Vigilante AKA Tfios and Lose.
I want to lynch someone on my Scum list so I know it’s a good choice.
I had allot of stuff down but I decided to remove all of it on accident and you going to be all like “Oh Welp them your posts don’t me Shit” for it.
Sorry Chemist but I can’t believe that’s a Town motivation but rather an SK one.
Ejji is the best lynch today IMO. They can explain allot with the lynch and it’s very obvious they are not Vigilante.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Chemist1422 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:59 pm

Qvapil wrote:Seth if you're sure on both mafia and SK, isn't it more beneficial to lynch the SK and shoot the maf at night? Though I don't think it matters so much.

I'm pretty sure he's wrong on both tbh

I also have not seen him re-evalutate anything that he's not proven wrong on so I've given up on trying to convince him
Seththeking wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:
Seththeking wrote:/Vote Chemist

I really can’t handle you anymore this game.
After what you, Dash and Crimson pulled their was Scum in their and your the only one who remains.

Seth, I've been making an effort to stay polite but you're being extremely difficult to work with

I ask you to stop tunneling and you continue with no regard for my posts

You're also refusing to answer my questions and telling me to do it myself, when it's about your reads


Well like look at all Alive players ISO’s and you should be smart enough to get Reads from it.
I’m not trying to Tunnel here’s I just don’t want to lynch Vigilante AKA Tfios and Lose.
I want to lynch someone on my Scum list so I know it’s a good choice.
I had allot of stuff down but I decided to remove all of it on accident and you going to be all like “Oh Welp them your posts don’t me Shit” for it.
Sorry Chemist but I can’t believe that’s a Town motivation but rather an SK one.
Ejji is the best lynch today IMO. They can explain allot with the lynch and it’s very obvious they are not Vigilante.

1. I said I'd do that when I get home and I will
2. If tfios is the vig they'll claim when they get wagoned
3. Okay, so explain stuff.
4. Well you if you wrote it you can give the general idea
5. It is because I'm trying to get you to explain your stuff
6. We shouldn't be lynching vanilla reads because that's dumb
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Qvapil » Mon May 20, 2019 2:00 pm

What do you guys think about rick's thoughts on vig outing? I'm not sure what I think myself, I think I'm in favour of it mostly due to having a confirmed townie which helps us immensely today.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Seththeking » Mon May 20, 2019 2:00 pm

Qvapil wrote:Seth if you're sure on both mafia and SK, isn't it more beneficial to lynch the SK and shoot the maf at night? Though I don't think it matters so much.


Well that’s just it.
Could Chemist be just playing really bad this game like Crimson or is he actually trying?
See IMO I think it’s best if we vote someone who’s most likely to Be Scum and not Flip Vigilante.
While Chemist also falls into this category, no one is going to push Chemist RN I don’t think.
While if Ejji is lynched and Flips Mafia we can have Tfios Shoot Chemist and if Tfios dies with no other deaths we lynch Chemist and win.
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