VFM 49: SK win #rekt

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Re: VFM 49: Day 1

Postby Chemist1422 » Mon May 20, 2019 12:37 pm

tfiosforevah wrote:I’m okay with either a cupcake Lynch or a crimson lynch, proto zigg should never be lynched at this point in this case since their slot is unreadable at the moment due to inactivity , hopefully a more active player replaces in

As to crimson and cupcake, they have both been actively inactive, crimson moreso than cupcake, by posting barely anything helpful from a townie perspective. IMO, crimson is doing this more than cupcake, but cupcake appears to be the top wagon , so like I said I’m fine with either

tfiosforevah wrote:/vote Crimson

i believe i was one of the first to openly scumread crimson in my reads, and i trusted that instinct more than the one on cupcake

especially with crimson's activity spike after being wagoned, and still the lack of influencing content is very scummy for them. either way, they seem to be the smartest lynch for today

edit: oH HECK NO ZUCKER


I keep coming back to these two tfios posts

I think the first one is villagery because they don't take a solid stance to bury a villager and keep their options open to push a wolf, but the second looks bad because they do end up committing to burying Crimson over cupcake, plus their response to Zucker feels fake given their usual tone.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Chemist1422 » Mon May 20, 2019 12:39 pm

I'm not reading Rick until he gets back today and gives me his thoughts on the flips+his PoE

Waiting on Debil's catchup for that slot
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Re: VFM 49: Day 1

Postby ejjinami » Mon May 20, 2019 12:39 pm

TheDebil wrote:
TheDebil wrote:alright im finally getting to the game pls wait several hours

just reached page 10 pog
i am speed
so guys i see you pressuring grumpy here and i have come with my early game reads
i have a question:
yall have any specific allignment in mind, or do you just think grumpy is scummy in general?

the game has moved on, Grumpy is 99% not mafia and prob not SK
If you want to read, I suggest starting from page 20
That’s (around) when the fun stuff starts happening
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby ejjinami » Mon May 20, 2019 12:40 pm

Chemist1422 wrote:I'm not reading Rick until he gets back today and gives me his thoughts on the flips+his PoE

Waiting on Debil's catchup for that slot

fair, I guess
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Re: VFM 49: Day 1

Postby TheDebil » Mon May 20, 2019 12:58 pm

ejjinami wrote:
TheDebil wrote:
TheDebil wrote:alright im finally getting to the game pls wait several hours

just reached page 10 pog
i am speed
so guys i see you pressuring grumpy here and i have come with my early game reads
i have a question:
yall have any specific allignment in mind, or do you just think grumpy is scummy in general?

the game has moved on, Grumpy is 99% not mafia and prob not SK
If you want to read, I suggest starting from page 20
That’s (around) when the fun stuff starts happening

well you will be happy to know that i have only read pages 1-18 and writing a readlist based on these pages just to have something behind my name
will probably end up skimming through the rest as fast as possible just so i can atleast be caught up before D2 ends and make a second readlist
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Re: VFM 49: Day 1

Postby ejjinami » Mon May 20, 2019 1:04 pm

TheDebil wrote:
ejjinami wrote:
TheDebil wrote:
TheDebil wrote:alright im finally getting to the game pls wait several hours

just reached page 10 pog
i am speed
so guys i see you pressuring grumpy here and i have come with my early game reads
i have a question:
yall have any specific allignment in mind, or do you just think grumpy is scummy in general?

the game has moved on, Grumpy is 99% not mafia and prob not SK
If you want to read, I suggest starting from page 20
That’s (around) when the fun stuff starts happening

well you will be happy to know that i have only read pages 1-18 and writing a readlist based on these pages just to have something behind my name
will probably end up skimming through the rest as fast as possible just so i can atleast be caught up before D2 ends and make a second readlist

/pat
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby ejjinami » Mon May 20, 2019 1:07 pm

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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Seththeking » Mon May 20, 2019 1:09 pm

@Over it’s ok if I use my main account right?
@Chemist I’d like your full reads list of everyone please, not just Tfios.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Chemist1422 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:10 pm

Seththeking wrote:@Over it’s ok if I use my main account right?
@Chemist I’d like your full reads list of everyone please, not just Tfios.

{Chemist}
{Seth, Qva, Debil}
{Rick}
{tfios, Goomba}
{}

Will explain once I get home
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Seththeking » Mon May 20, 2019 1:11 pm

Chemist1422 wrote:
Seththeking wrote:@Over it’s ok if I use my main account right?
@Chemist I’d like your full reads list of everyone please, not just Tfios.

{Chemist}
{Seth, Qva, Debil}
{Rick}
{tfios, Goomba}
{}

Will explain once I get home


Ejji doesn’t exist right?
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby ejjinami » Mon May 20, 2019 1:12 pm

Seththeking wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:
Seththeking wrote:@Over it’s ok if I use my main account right?
@Chemist I’d like your full reads list of everyone please, not just Tfios.

{Chemist}
{Seth, Qva, Debil}
{Rick}
{tfios, Goomba}
{}

Will explain once I get home


Ejji doesn’t exist right?

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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby ejjinami » Mon May 20, 2019 1:13 pm

why is debil so high?
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby ejjinami » Mon May 20, 2019 1:13 pm

and why is grumpy so low
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby ejjinami » Mon May 20, 2019 1:14 pm

Chemist1422 wrote:Will explain once I get home

oh, wait, ok
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Rickdaily12 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:15 pm

I'm fucking mad

Windows 10 just hijacked my computer to do updates without my content and just completely destroyed 2+ hours of VCA

I do not fucking need this right now
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Chemist1422 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:15 pm

Seththeking wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:
Seththeking wrote:@Over it’s ok if I use my main account right?
@Chemist I’d like your full reads list of everyone please, not just Tfios.

{Chemist}
{Seth, Qva, Debil}
{Rick}
{tfios, Goomba}
{}

Will explain once I get home


Ejji doesn’t exist right?

I had to rush and couldn't double-check
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Seththeking » Mon May 20, 2019 1:16 pm

tfiosforevah wrote:Okay guys, here’s a very important question

Due to the two kills n1 vs the 3 kills n2, are we thinking the vig was shut off or maf/vig hit night immune sk?



This last post here honestly feels like a Vigilante Soft Claim.
That’s why I don’t want to vote Tfios.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Chemist1422 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:18 pm

Seththeking wrote:
tfiosforevah wrote:Okay guys, here’s a very important question

Due to the two kills n1 vs the 3 kills n2, are we thinking the vig was shut off or maf/vig hit night immune sk?



This last post here honestly feels like a Vigilante Soft Claim.
That’s why I don’t want to vote Tfios.

no
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Rickdaily12 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:23 pm

Ok, so here's my approach to today.

When my computer stops being a nazi, I'm going to try to do another indepth analysis of VCA again. Hopefully in that time I can stop being absolutely enraged in the process.

After that, I'm going to update my reads.

In the meantime, I have a suggestion.

As it is currently effectively MyLo, the Vig should claim today. I know a lot of people have already argued against this so far, and I don't know if you did it for shortsighted reasons or if you don't understand the consequences of this, but the claim needs to happen now. Reasons why:

1. If people keep being themselves and searching for two scum who cannot associate with each other from now on, if someone's strongest SR 24 hours from now is the Vig, they have wasted the entire day for nothing and you now force that person to guess within their remaining PoE with weaker accuracy.

2. Building on the above, everyone's PoE becomes stronger with one less suspect on the list, as we'll have more time to look over everyone else between now and EoD.

3. The Vig has a high likihood of dying after tonight if we mislynch regardless. Outting the Vig also increasing the chances of Scum targetting the same player (we WIFOM mafia and SK into hitting the same target if they try to gamble on whether to be the one to kill the vig or not)

Basically I see every reason for the vig to out and virtually zero reasons not to. With the amount of killing power in the game, it just really doesn't matter at this point. Vigs should claim in every MyLo anyway, it's pretty much straight forward meta.

Let's not waste any time today.

If anyone has any questions that I'm not about to spend time answering anyway, please bump them and I'll get back to them later at some point, but I'm going to start with the flips.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Chemist1422 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:28 pm

It's not effectively MyLo

It's 6v1v1, so a mislynch+mis-shot is LyLo
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Rickdaily12 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:30 pm

Chemist1422 wrote:It's not effectively MyLo

It's 6v1v1, so a mislynch+mis-shot is LyLo

Chemist, any Scum kill is a -1 to kill power. At least one, possibly two of the Scum could be weak to the Vig attack. Vig always shoots here.

Mislynches + all three KP missing scum = lost MyLo, so yes, for all intents of purposes, this IS MyLo, and Vig should claim.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Chemist1422 » Mon May 20, 2019 1:31 pm

oh

Why did no one tell me my math was wrong this entire time
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Qvapil » Mon May 20, 2019 1:32 pm

I only skimmed through today's discussions till now so tell me if I missed something major. I saw ejji's math and I'm a bit worried about the SK. Mostly because I believe we can find the last mafia much easier, by associations and interactions with uzay and cupcake, but I have no clue how the SK would play here especially since we don't know what immunity they chose.

Ejji I why don't you think goomba is the SK? I agree that they're probably not mafia due to their D1 vote but during D2 they were following the thread but not really saying anything. Like, they were there but kinda not there? I can't explain it very well, but I think it's something I'd do as SK. Goomba could you give us some quick reads? Not anything as deep as your D1 post, just some thoughts on who you think could be the last mafia or the SK.

Ejji I remember you asked me how I read you, I think you're town but I haven't iso'd neither you or uzay yet. After I look into uzay a bit more I'll give a more solid answer. But I do have a weird tinfoil about you, though I can't find the exact post. Somewhere during D2 Flake was discussing the night kills and said he found it weird he were still alive, then you answered him that you thought Dash should have been a higher priority target compared to phone and eragon. Though I agree with you on that point, is it too deep in the realms of science fiction to assume that you were scum signalling to the other evil faction? To like, coordinate a Dash kill? Or am I too tired.

About the last mafia, tfios does seem a promising target. I remember flake townreading tfios yesterday though and uzay questioned that townread. Flake wasn't really being questioned at that point (though I was also arguing against tfios) so do you guys think uzay would try to pull his mate into the poe pools while flake had him solidly in town? I think it's possible, especially since the post in question doesn't give much insight into tfios and doesn't really risk him in the pool he's into.

UzayAltay wrote:
0verki11 wrote:Crimson | 8 | Qvaril, Dash2, Uzayaltay, Flake, Chemist1422, Zucker, Tfoisforevah, Rickdaily12 , ; Cupcakej2 |3 | Grumpygoomba, Ejjinami, Protozigg ; Dash2 | 1 | Eragon1329 ; Uzayaltay | 1 | Cupcakej2 ; Chemist | 1 | , Crimson97,


TBH I am thinking different than Flake here .

My Pool is
Either
1( Goomba , protoo ) , 1 ( Qva , Chem , Rick )
Or 2 ( Qva , Chem , Rick , Zucker , tfios}

About tfios , there are posts Like 3169181 or 3169935I Dont Like , so not aggreeing on tfios being lock-town with Flake .



One last thing, I don't think proto/debil is mafia. I pointed this post out yesterday:

Qvapil wrote:
ProtoZigg wrote:/vote cupcake

I disagree


This vote was just after I voted crimson, and I was the first vote there. I think it's unlikely proto is cupcake's buddy here


The timing of the vote is weird for them to be buddies. Proto directly opposed a starting crimson wagon to vote cupcake, and he was townreading me before that point.
However, I do think they could be SK, because their lack of engagement with the thread could be an SK giving up on a difficult to win game (if this is angleshooty ignore it). On vfm48 where they were town (assuming it's triangular) they were much more active.

Anyway I think chemist is definetely not SK, they could be maf if tfios is town but I haven't read them carefully yet.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby ejjinami » Mon May 20, 2019 1:32 pm

gtg
I think I might be able to post today again before going to sleep, but can't guarantee anything.
My exams are starting soon an I have a relatively easy one tomorrow, but studying to it might still take some time

a reminder just in case, so that you don't forget
@seth answer my posts, please

P,Edit:
Rickdaily12 wrote:I'm fucking mad

Windows 10 just hijacked my computer to do updates without my content and just completely destroyed 2+ hours of VCA

I do not fucking need this right now

/pat ):

sigh
we're not in mylo if the vig doesn't shoot.
I think I might have found the right way to play here, but I have to think about it a bit more and I don't have time to write it now anyway ):
please, don't claim yet.
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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

Postby Qvapil » Mon May 20, 2019 1:33 pm

I wrote that before reading the last page
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