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Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 8:23 pm
by ejjinami
fun fact, flake died just when I was about to start TRing him

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 8:25 pm
by ejjinami
oh and hi @newseth'salt

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 8:33 pm
by ejjinami
Chemist1422 wrote:Six town (one vig), one mafia, one SK

If we mislynch and misshoot we're in LyLo if the vig dies and technical LyLo if the vig lives

Vig shouldn't be claiming unless they get wagoned

Now: 6:1:1
After a ML: 5:1:1
After N3 (2 scum kills and a mis-shot): 2:1:1

If the vig shoots town, dies and the scums don’t cross-kill, we’ll have no chance to win.
So depending on the situation we could be in lylo rn?

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 8:46 pm
by ejjinami
Hey @rick, what do you think of town!eragon’s scum-hunting?

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 10:59 pm
by Kreaal
I’ll get back to this and give proper reads when I wake up, but I’d like to point out a couple of things before I take my leave.
First off, I feel Vigilante should reveal since Mafia can’t stop their attack and they get a free kill.
Secondly, I will be going through everyone’s ISO’s including those that didn’t vote Cupcake.
Thirdly, I’ll be looking at all the dead town members and all the dead mafia members to see if I can find anything out of the ordinary.
Lastly, I’ll be ISO pointing 3 participants I find most likely to flip the last 2 remaining scum slots.

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 11:03 pm
by GrumpyGoomba
Strongly disagree on vig revealing. They get 2 more bloody free shots by not revealing. Also nice one vig.

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 11:16 pm
by TheDebil
seth stop making alts

now for me poating content should be able to when i get onto a pc
with this many scum flips i think we can do it

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 11:53 pm
by Qvapil
Guys I won't be able to be very active today but I will be here tomorrow to help solve this. Or try to, seeing as I've townread both uzay and cup this game so my reads haven't been very accurate. But uzay has had way more interactions than cupcake so I'm confident we can find the last maf from his posts. I'll pop in later to post more thoughts.

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 2:14 am
by tfiosforevah
Okay guys, here’s a very important question

Due to the two kills n1 vs the 3 kills n2, are we thinking the vig was shut off or maf/vig hit night immune sk?

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 3:56 am
by ejjinami
More math…

Now: 6:1:1
If we lynch scum today: 5:1

If vig doesn’t shoot:
Next day: 4:1 => 2:1 (2 lynches, 50% that vig is alive in LyLo, shooting again will either result in the game ending in a tie, or we will lose if the last scum is SK and they chose town-immunity)

If they do shoot:
3:1 (immediate MyLo,1 vig shot + 1 lynch, 75% that vig is alive in MyLo and can shoot again next night)

If we lynch mafia (and SK is alive), I think Vig should refrain from shooting.
If SK is lynched today, Vig should shoot, cuz even if we ML, there’s a 75% chance that they’ll be alive and able to shoot in MyLo.

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 4:02 am
by ejjinami
I don’t actually know what to do in case of a town lynch, but I think the scums might want to consider helping us (especially the mafia if they think SK might have chosen mafia-immunity).

If both SK and Maf kill townies, we’ll end in 2:1:1, which would make the game INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT FOR MAF TO WIN. You’d have to shoot or lynch SK later anyway and trying to kill them off now instead of killing a townie WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR YOU TO GET RID OF THEM BEFORE YOU GET TO A 1v1 WITH THEM.
Otherwise, if they chose Maf-immunity, YOU’LL LOSE IMMEDIATELY.

@Mafia, do the math yourself if you don’t trust me, it makes sense.
And it’s prob the only chance you’ll get to cooperate with the town as mafia without gamethrowing xD

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 4:03 am
by ejjinami
Kreaal wrote:I’ll get back to this and give proper reads when I wake up, but I’d like to point out a couple of things before I take my leave.
First off, I feel Vigilante should reveal since Mafia can’t stop their attack and they get a free kill.
Secondly, I will be going through everyone’s ISO’s including those that didn’t vote Cupcake.
Thirdly, I’ll be looking at all the dead town members and all the dead mafia members to see if I can find anything out of the ordinary.
Lastly, I’ll be ISO pointing 3 participants I find most likely to flip the last 2 remaining scum slots.

Well, this might have been obvious because of zuck’s ignorant and carefree attitude anyway, but the thing about vig claiming prob doesn’t come from SK.
I don’t think they would have been likely to throw such an obvious vig-bait if they were aware of how illogical it is.

reading the dead townies’ isos might be a waste of time :/ but ok

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 4:05 am
by ejjinami
tfiosforevah wrote:Okay guys, here’s a very important question

Due to the two kills n1 vs the 3 kills n2, are we thinking the vig was shut off or maf/vig hit night immune sk?

SK can be a townie player, if that’s what you’re getting at. There’s nothing stopping that from happening, so you should just be aware of the possibility while getting reads.
If you have a tinfoil about anyone townie, just say it. I don’t see the point of discussing the vig-kill.
Keep it to plain SRing, if possible.

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 4:05 am
by ejjinami
and give reads, please

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 4:05 am
by ejjinami
@0verki11, is MoustachioMario still a backup? It’s a question of utmost importance.

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 6:56 am
by Chemist1422
ejjinami wrote:
Kreaal wrote:I’ll get back to this and give proper reads when I wake up, but I’d like to point out a couple of things before I take my leave.
First off, I feel Vigilante should reveal since Mafia can’t stop their attack and they get a free kill.
Secondly, I will be going through everyone’s ISO’s including those that didn’t vote Cupcake.
Thirdly, I’ll be looking at all the dead town members and all the dead mafia members to see if I can find anything out of the ordinary.
Lastly, I’ll be ISO pointing 3 participants I find most likely to flip the last 2 remaining scum slots.

Well, this might have been obvious because of zuck’s ignorant and carefree attitude anyway, but the thing about vig claiming prob doesn’t come from SK.
I don’t think they would have been likely to throw such an obvious vig-bait if they were aware of how illogical it is.

reading the dead townies’ isos might be a waste of time :/ but ok

zuck and kreaal are the same person

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 7:02 am
by GrumpyGoomba
tfiosforevah wrote:Okay guys, here’s a very important question

Due to the two kills n1 vs the 3 kills n2, are we thinking the vig was shut off or maf/vig hit night immune sk?


I don't see the importance of this information, except for finding out how many bullets the vig has left. It's better for it to be left unknown for now to make it harder for the scum, unless the vig claims.

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 7:31 am
by Chemist1422
It's quite likely that the vig just holstered n1 anyway

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 8:15 am
by Kreaal
Alright so here we go.


My first culprit is Chemist

Dead Town Interactions:
Crimson:
Crimson97 wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:Yeah I haven't liked Crimson's defense

It's not flaily per se, just like they're only invested in defending themselves and not solving

Well yeah, it's a defense. What do you think about my points?


Crimson97 wrote:I have been trying to figure out who of the people pushing me is scum. Chemist seems very quick to dismiss any argument i make instead of telling me why they're bad. I honestly feel like they were just looking for an excuse to vote me.






Dead Mafia Interactions:
Uzay

UzayAltay wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:
Dash2 wrote:Chemist you're seriously not helping your case

I'm trying, okay?

You're saying I faked the slip knowingly and actually slipped because I knew it would be fake, but I explained what actually happened. If you're not refuting that you can't push me based on the slip.

Wait What This is completely wrong .
If You are Okay with Flake TR ing You with your slip
But not aggreeing with Dash SR ing You with your flip
Than This is LAMIST
Which is FoS
Due You not keeping your original opinion ( Slip was NAI )
Happily take The cred from Flake
But refusing SRs
Actually This deserves A vote
But I Will Wait for your explanation








Additional Thoughts:
This is most probable to be the Serial Killer.



Next my second Culprit is GrumpyGoomba

Dead Town Interactions:

Dash2
Dash2 wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:I am most definitely not liking this response. My eyes are on you dash.

You literally said this one thing then nothing else and call it a reaction test?

That bit about you softing cit and discussing the plan also looks forced and awkward. I'm not taking that

Dash2 wrote:
Qvapil wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:Anyways I will leave my vote on my strongest scumread for now.
/Vote Cupcake


Goomba and cupcake are not s/s

Heavy doubt

Dash2 wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:Okay I have finally caught up with the thread. Did a cop check on me succeed? If not then don't claim. See people think that I am the sk. If I was the sk then

nice rolefish. We literally established yesterday SK can choose to be cop immune


Mafia Interaction:
Uzay
UzayAltay wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:I hope that through some magical luck the cop check is on me and it succeeds and I am hopefully cleared.

8-)
Even without SK may be immune to This , directing cop to one target , or want to checked by cop is bad .

UzayAltay wrote:
Qvapil wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:Anyways I will leave my vote on my strongest scumread for now.
/Vote Cupcake


Goomba and cupcake are not s/s

Tend to agree, but I Will prefer to say "probably not M/m"


Additional Thoughts: This is Probably the last Mafia


My last Culprit is TheDebil or Ejji

Not as strong with this one and couldn’t find anything that was off to me but definitely 2 Participants to consider.
However I’m leaning more Ejji.

Ejji and Cupcake Interactions.
cupcakeaj2 wrote:
ejjinami wrote:
cupcakeaj2 wrote:Hmmmm

Let's look at more ISOs.

just read the damn game, please.


I did.

And everybody said everything I was going to say.


cupcakeaj2 wrote:Yass

Ejji is suspicious for distancing


Furthermore, /Vote GrumpyGoomba

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 8:21 am
by Chemist1422
This is weak analysis because it doesn’t explain anything

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 8:26 am
by Kreaal
Chemist1422 wrote:This is weak analysis because it doesn’t explain anything


So Interactions towards others doesn’t explain anything?
Well how about I make things a bit more understandable for you then.
At the start of Day 1 Cupcake voted for Uzay.
Later I noticed that GrumpyGoomba casually votes for Cupcake and I also noticed Cupcake calling Ejji scummy at last Minute.
Furthermore I definitely can tell the last Mafia is in GG/Ejji.
If you disagree with me Chemist then please give me your thoughts on the matter.

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 8:34 am
by GrumpyGoomba
Kreaal wrote:Alright so here we go.


My first culprit is Chemist

Dead Town Interactions:
Crimson:
Crimson97 wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:Yeah I haven't liked Crimson's defense

It's not flaily per se, just like they're only invested in defending themselves and not solving

Well yeah, it's a defense. What do you think about my points?


Crimson97 wrote:I have been trying to figure out who of the people pushing me is scum. Chemist seems very quick to dismiss any argument i make instead of telling me why they're bad. I honestly feel like they were just looking for an excuse to vote me.






Dead Mafia Interactions:
Uzay

UzayAltay wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:
Dash2 wrote:Chemist you're seriously not helping your case

I'm trying, okay?

You're saying I faked the slip knowingly and actually slipped because I knew it would be fake, but I explained what actually happened. If you're not refuting that you can't push me based on the slip.

Wait What This is completely wrong .
If You are Okay with Flake TR ing You with your slip
But not aggreeing with Dash SR ing You with your flip
Than This is LAMIST
Which is FoS
Due You not keeping your original opinion ( Slip was NAI )
Happily take The cred from Flake
But refusing SRs
Actually This deserves A vote
But I Will Wait for your explanation








Additional Thoughts:
This is most probable to be the Serial Killer.



Next my second Culprit is GrumpyGoomba

Dead Town Interactions:

Dash2
Dash2 wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:I am most definitely not liking this response. My eyes are on you dash.

You literally said this one thing then nothing else and call it a reaction test?

That bit about you softing cit and discussing the plan also looks forced and awkward. I'm not taking that

Dash2 wrote:
Qvapil wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:Anyways I will leave my vote on my strongest scumread for now.
/Vote Cupcake


Goomba and cupcake are not s/s

Heavy doubt

Dash2 wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:Okay I have finally caught up with the thread. Did a cop check on me succeed? If not then don't claim. See people think that I am the sk. If I was the sk then

nice rolefish. We literally established yesterday SK can choose to be cop immune


Mafia Interaction:
Uzay
UzayAltay wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:I hope that through some magical luck the cop check is on me and it succeeds and I am hopefully cleared.

8-)
Even without SK may be immune to This , directing cop to one target , or want to checked by cop is bad .

UzayAltay wrote:
Qvapil wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:Anyways I will leave my vote on my strongest scumread for now.
/Vote Cupcake


Goomba and cupcake are not s/s

Tend to agree, but I Will prefer to say "probably not M/m"


Additional Thoughts: This is Probably the last Mafia


My last Culprit is TheDebil or Ejji

Not as strong with this one and couldn’t find anything that was off to me but definitely 2 Participants to consider.
However I’m leaning more Ejji.

Ejji and Cupcake Interactions.
cupcakeaj2 wrote:
ejjinami wrote:
cupcakeaj2 wrote:Hmmmm

Let's look at more ISOs.

just read the damn game, please.


I did.

And everybody said everything I was going to say.


cupcakeaj2 wrote:Yass

Ejji is suspicious for distancing


Furthermore, /Vote GrumpyGoomba

Haha yeah no. I had hopes for you after the zucker fiasco but you dashed them. Sigh. You did nothing but pick up some choice posts on all three of your 'culprits' that make them look scummy. Congratulations, you have just invented multi-tunnelling.

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 8:37 am
by Chemist1422
Kreaal wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:This is weak analysis because it doesn’t explain anything


So Interactions towards others doesn’t explain anything?
Well how about I make things a bit more understandable for you then.
At the start of Day 1 Cupcake voted for Uzay.
Later I noticed that GrumpyGoomba casually votes for Cupcake and I also noticed Cupcake calling Ejji scummy at last Minute.
Furthermore I definitely can tell the last Mafia is in GG/Ejji.
If you disagree with me Chemist then please give me your thoughts on the matter.

That’s the what

Explain the how

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 8:38 am
by Kreaal
GrumpyGoomba wrote:
Kreaal wrote:Alright so here we go.


My first culprit is Chemist

Dead Town Interactions:
Crimson:
Crimson97 wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:Yeah I haven't liked Crimson's defense

It's not flaily per se, just like they're only invested in defending themselves and not solving

Well yeah, it's a defense. What do you think about my points?


Crimson97 wrote:I have been trying to figure out who of the people pushing me is scum. Chemist seems very quick to dismiss any argument i make instead of telling me why they're bad. I honestly feel like they were just looking for an excuse to vote me.






Dead Mafia Interactions:
Uzay

UzayAltay wrote:
Chemist1422 wrote:
Dash2 wrote:Chemist you're seriously not helping your case

I'm trying, okay?

You're saying I faked the slip knowingly and actually slipped because I knew it would be fake, but I explained what actually happened. If you're not refuting that you can't push me based on the slip.

Wait What This is completely wrong .
If You are Okay with Flake TR ing You with your slip
But not aggreeing with Dash SR ing You with your flip
Than This is LAMIST
Which is FoS
Due You not keeping your original opinion ( Slip was NAI )
Happily take The cred from Flake
But refusing SRs
Actually This deserves A vote
But I Will Wait for your explanation








Additional Thoughts:
This is most probable to be the Serial Killer.



Next my second Culprit is GrumpyGoomba

Dead Town Interactions:

Dash2
Dash2 wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:I am most definitely not liking this response. My eyes are on you dash.

You literally said this one thing then nothing else and call it a reaction test?

That bit about you softing cit and discussing the plan also looks forced and awkward. I'm not taking that

Dash2 wrote:
Qvapil wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:Anyways I will leave my vote on my strongest scumread for now.
/Vote Cupcake


Goomba and cupcake are not s/s

Heavy doubt

Dash2 wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:Okay I have finally caught up with the thread. Did a cop check on me succeed? If not then don't claim. See people think that I am the sk. If I was the sk then

nice rolefish. We literally established yesterday SK can choose to be cop immune


Mafia Interaction:
Uzay
UzayAltay wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:I hope that through some magical luck the cop check is on me and it succeeds and I am hopefully cleared.

8-)
Even without SK may be immune to This , directing cop to one target , or want to checked by cop is bad .

UzayAltay wrote:
Qvapil wrote:
GrumpyGoomba wrote:Anyways I will leave my vote on my strongest scumread for now.
/Vote Cupcake


Goomba and cupcake are not s/s

Tend to agree, but I Will prefer to say "probably not M/m"


Additional Thoughts: This is Probably the last Mafia


My last Culprit is TheDebil or Ejji

Not as strong with this one and couldn’t find anything that was off to me but definitely 2 Participants to consider.
However I’m leaning more Ejji.

Ejji and Cupcake Interactions.
cupcakeaj2 wrote:
ejjinami wrote:
cupcakeaj2 wrote:Hmmmm

Let's look at more ISOs.

just read the damn game, please.


I did.

And everybody said everything I was going to say.


cupcakeaj2 wrote:Yass

Ejji is suspicious for distancing


Furthermore, /Vote GrumpyGoomba

Haha yeah no. I had hopes for you after the zucker fiasco but you dashed them. Sigh. You did nothing but pick up some choice posts on all three of your 'culprits' that make them look scummy. Congratulations, you have just invented multi-tunnelling.


As I said before I was going to be picking 3 Culprits that I find the most scummy.
As such I found posts to prove my point further. Why would I ever consider showing Town posts that discredit the point?
Anyway can act townie but it’s the Interactions and Scum vibes that are truly important at this point of the game.
Also not to mention at this point you don’t want to PL. you want to actually find the 2 remaining scum and get rid of them.

Re: VFM 49: Day 2

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 8:42 am
by GrumpyGoomba
Indeed. Then go find actually scum instead of painting people as scum.