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ryanyb wrote:Also let me be clear here: eragon wasn’t playing against his wincon I was watching that very closely
He was playing the odds, we all thought he had a 1/3 shot at the win and so did he
But turns out it was 100% which was known to no one but jaland
ryanyb wrote:Ok, so consider the situation where he douses Juck.
How does the game change?
Jalandh wrote:ryanyb wrote:Ok, so consider the situation where he douses Juck.
How does the game change?
In his point of view?
Game goes to 1v1v1 where mafia still has a chance to win, town autoloses, and he has that 1/3 chance of winning.
Jalandh wrote:ryanyb wrote:Ok, so consider the situation where he douses Juck.
How does the game change?
In his point of view?
Game goes to 1v1v1 where mafia still has a chance to win, town autoloses, and he has that 1/3 chance of winning.
Jalandh wrote:Crimson, wtf btw
What happened to sending watchme1 into watt? That's the entire reason we killed pkr
ryanyb wrote:Jalandh wrote:ryanyb wrote:Ok, so consider the situation where he douses Juck.
How does the game change?
In his point of view?
Game goes to 1v1v1 where mafia still has a chance to win, town autoloses, and he has that 1/3 chance of winning.
Not from his PoV
From the objective game pov.
You lose the 1v1v1 regardless, this was pretty established in thread.
If he doused juck nothing would've changed.
Also there was always that though in the back of his mind that he really wanted to burn me with me being mafia I can pretty much assure you that.
Idk I'm pretty sure he tossed a coin on who to douse.
ryanyb wrote:At the end of the day he did win the game :v
Jalandh wrote:ryanyb wrote:Jalandh wrote:ryanyb wrote:Ok, so consider the situation where he douses Juck.
How does the game change?
In his point of view?
Game goes to 1v1v1 where mafia still has a chance to win, town autoloses, and he has that 1/3 chance of winning.
Not from his PoV
From the objective game pov.
You lose the 1v1v1 regardless, this was pretty established in thread.
If he doused juck nothing would've changed.
Also there was always that though in the back of his mind that he really wanted to burn me with me being mafia I can pretty much assure you that.
Idk I'm pretty sure he tossed a coin on who to douse.
Ryan
Eragon said he thought you were the mafia when he doused you
That means instead of aiming for the 1v1v1
he was aiming for the 2v1
p-edit: Yeah i went back and reread it. I combined the two posts where you mentioned controlling the escort and sending someone into the vet, that is my bad
Jalandh wrote:I just need to leave, sorry
Jalandh wrote:ryanyb wrote:At the end of the day he did win the game :v
Because both of his reads were wrong, not because of his actions
Rickdaily12 wrote:Couple things I just wanted to hindsight:
1. In Episode 3, the last Arsonist win in an Episode, we did use the Draw resolution phase exactly like in ToS where Arsonist has 3 days and 3 nights to kill the Veteran and vice versa or neither win. It's probably more fair than saying "I'll wait 100 days and nights and rand a number between 1-100". If you're going to resolve it in the other way, then you should outwardly tell Veterans that you're just going to endgame them even though saving alerts for a standoff should be a play.
2. Eragon really should have been lynched the day he claimed. You never lynch "likely scum" over "total scum" when faced with the choice. Again, people really should care more about mislynching more. It leads to farces like this.
3. 14v4v2 where Arso can rand is a disgusting setup and needs to burn. Arso won because Town mishandled themselves pretty badly, but the setup is skewed so much in favor of the Town that the only real reason Town had for ignoring Eragon in the first place was because he was ridiculously weak to be considered a true threat. Maybe if you pressure the Town by giving them stronger roles and fewer people during Episodes, you'll remind them to kill conf scum more.
ryanyb wrote:Also what I don’t think some spectators realize is that the arso had the game solved, their best shot at winning was 33% with the information provided. The fact jaland was mafia which was logically impossible meant that we were flipping a coin on town vs arso win.
Town was in a position where we couldn’t ml once and the arso ignite would resolve one town and one mafia 66% of the time and two town 33% of the time.
The arso was fine. This wasn’t a “how’d you let the arso win” because eragon is as surprised as we are. Eragon had no grand scheme, he didn’t lie and he didn’t go astray from the plan.
It’s that we had no way to know jaland was scum
When I tried to bring it up 1) watt wasn’t here who apparently also wanted jaland pushed so that’s unlucky ig and 2) it was impossible for jaland to be scum because of google’s claim.
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