VFM42 | GIVE IT UP FOR DAY 4

[Jezz92]

in hindsight that's kinda agenda-ish on chemist's part but idk what agenda

Like from his POV he makes that comment knowing juck is town so he's basically preparing himself for the next day to start looking at people who did not vote crimson; so it deflects from himself but if he's got a buddy or two in uzay/tfios/phone/takumi it puts the attention onto them

Keep in mind this was before soul outed revealed his guilty on chemist

[Jezz92]

I mean if there is more scum on crimson's wagon I'm having trouble seeing who it'd be atm

[UzayAltay]

TakumiHijirihara has requested replacement. TakumiHijirihara will be replacing them.

What is the difference between takumihijara(left) and takumihijara ( right) ?

[UzayAltay]

The quick hammer should not have happened, like after soul outing chemist was always gonna be the lynch but we could have used the discussion time
I mean takumi and Mario hadn’t even checked in yet
But whatever
Good thing is we’re one scum down and our TP was someone mafia would not have NK’ed as a priority if he were VT so lol

I believe we are on a good spot ,but we may lose our advantage with a ML , so we need to be cautious here .

[UzayAltay]

The quick hammer should not have happened, like after soul outing chemist was always gonna be the lynch but we could have used the discussion time
I mean takumi and Mario hadn’t even checked in yet
But whatever
Good thing is we’re one scum down and our TP was someone mafia would not have NK’ed as a priority if he were VT so lol

im sorry

what vt

vt= vanillia town

[UzayAltay]

If both of the following things are correct:
- Pure chemist wagon (other than chemist obviously)
- Chemist/Mario as TvS

Our scum team is within {phone/tfios/takumi}
Technically the sorting pool is {jezz/phone/tfios/takumi}, I'm town but I’m perfectly fine being lynched to sort it out, but we only do this if we think both of the above things are true.

How can we be sure the wagon is pure ????
I think we cant , and the main problem is even we somehow be sure that not all scumteam wasnt on wagon , we still cant POE , which make problems.

Like for it , we should be 100/100 sure it is pure , which is like impossible.

[UzayAltay]

I feel like chemist baiting noping to hammer him is TvS rather than SvS??

TBH It is both possible they threated ( hope I worded it correctly ) it , or Noping is bad as fall for the bait .
Noping , how was your experience on FM ?

[Jezz92]

If both of the following things are correct:
- Pure chemist wagon (other than chemist obviously)
- Chemist/Mario as TvS

Our scum team is within {phone/tfios/takumi}
Technically the sorting pool is {jezz/phone/tfios/takumi}, I'm town but I’m perfectly fine being lynched to sort it out, but we only do this if we think both of the above things are true.

How can we be sure the wagon is pure ????
I think we cant , and the main problem is even we somehow be sure that not all scumteam wasnt on wagon , we still cant POE , which make problems.

Like for it , we should be 100/100 sure it is pure , which is like impossible.

what do you think about the wagon then?

[Jezz92]

I feel like chemist baiting noping to hammer him is TvS rather than SvS??

TBH It is both possible they threated ( hope I worded it correctly ) it , or Noping is bad as fall for the bait .
Noping , how was your experience on FM ?

eh I see it more as scum!chemist wanting to make town!noping look bad tbh
SvS is possible but i'm feeling TvS more rn

[Jezz92]

OMG LMAO

[Jezz92]

well i guess you have nothing better to do mr. blackmailer XDDDDD

[Jezz92]

that is actually hilarious tbh

[UzayAltay]

On day 1 chemist “pushed” on 3 people other than joining the crimson wagon at EOD: mario, phone and uzay

His push on Mario I feel was a lot stronger than the other two tbh, I mean he basically said nothing about phone or uzay after the initial posts about them. If he was distancing from anyone it would be between those two imo

Hey Uzay didn't visit.

This means that Uzay didn't kill but they can be the Blackmailer because Bm tends to not visit. When both PRs are confirmed.


That being said Uzay isn't a perfect lynch for today

k

Wait , there is sth interesting , as I remember , he pushed Mario most , but put me and Phone at lowest tier ?
PS- checked the ISO , he made tiers before pushing Mario , than said Mario is same level with you.

If both of the following things are correct:
- Pure chemist wagon (other than chemist obviously)
- Chemist/Mario as TvS

Our scum team is within {phone/tfios/takumi}
Technically the sorting pool is {jezz/phone/tfios/takumi}, I'm town but I’m perfectly fine being lynched to sort it out, but we only do this if we think both of the above things are true.

How can we be sure the wagon is pure ????
I think we cant , and the main problem is even we somehow be sure that not all scumteam wasnt on wagon , we still cant POE , which make problems.

Like for it , we should be 100/100 sure it is pure , which is like impossible.

what do you think about the wagon then?

I dont think both scums are on wagon.
My guess would be 1 exc. Chemist , I believe 0 is only possible if All scum was AFK , so it is possible , but unlikely .

[UzayAltay]

well i guess you have nothing better to do mr. blackmailer XDDDDD

WHat happened ?

[Jezz92]

what do you think
meh it's prob a little rule breaky so no need to worry about it, doesn't really matter anyway and isn't gonna affect me scum hunting, and shouldn't affect any of you guys scum hunting

someone got a little offended let's just say that XD

[UzayAltay]

Hard CCing Tracker, no visits on Eragon

I claimed cit because if Soul was scum I would be killed that night + didn’t want to out myself

/vote Soul

Do you think chemist would be using a Mafia buddie in a statement or not is the question.

I don't know what to think about using Eragon saying that they tracked them.

I could be overthhinking but some people tend to keep away from using Mafia buddies in a claim like this

see we got a problem

chemist could ne a basic wolf and usin a mafia buddy

then decent wolf he'll punt the fake results onto actownie

advanced wolf he would act like he's punting the result on a townie but era is his maf buddy for towncred

True question is would chemist pull off something like that.

Also the risk of putting a Mafia on there too.

I better look at more of chemist's posts.


BTW as I'm confirmed green vegan I declare everything with my 1Iq brain

Intersting , is it possible to we find more than WIFOM ? I dont think we can get much here.

[UzayAltay]

i also do not wanna believe there could be more than one scum on crimsons's wagon as well, cos that would mean scum took control of EOD 1 and majority of town reaaaaly aren't doing anything

The question is
IF all leads wagons are town
Would scum a) Take action on the CFD ing to another townie ? IF yes , why ?
b) IF a CFD happening outside of them , what would they do ?
I believe it is what we should solve here .

[UzayAltay]

What where your reasonings behind death tunneling me?

Just curious

i thought you were being wolfy as fuck with your posts before i realized what you were truly doing

What day 2? I wasn't doing much during day 1

At the time I knew chemist was 66% scum and I should have came up with better reasons to vote them.

Then when jucktropy came out as body double I felt like a had too much attention on me anyway.

I think he mean you suddenly saying " Chemist should claim " with no explanation .
Which was a bit problematic , but not worse as juck TBH .

[UzayAltay]

It would be nice to talk to Uzay they were in my list of scum but the fact they didn't kill yesterday gives me some doubts on them being scum of course they could just be the scum that didn't attack last night

We can talk , just say me the topic we will talk about .

[UzayAltay]

if uzay was scum would he be this inactive and basically a pile of prodging flesh

if phone was scum would they be trying to prodge and not have an opinion on anything really other than easy PL mario

if tfios was scum would she be using ‘development of playstyle’ to excuse prodging

[UzayAltay]

if we think chemist wagon is pure and we also think chemist vs mario was TvS we literally win just by lynching everyone else:
takumi/jezz/tfios/phone
I'd be going for tfios and phone first here because I think takumi is town

but this would be risky if we think someone bussed chemist and/or chemist tried to bus mario

and yeah obviously more discussion to try and decide which lynch is best, but from my POV it's gonna be basic POE if chemist voters+ mario are all town

so with that I'm gonna look more into the wagon formation, idk if I'll get much from it but let's see

Again saying , it is very risky.
And it only worth the risk if we can agree on one person more being town on there , and agree not all scum was on the wagon .
But even we do that , and we being right , we can stay on ( worstcasescenario) 2v1 lylo , which is worse than current situation.

[Jezz92]

i also do not wanna believe there could be more than one scum on crimsons's wagon as well, cos that would mean scum took control of EOD 1 and majority of town reaaaaly aren't doing anything

The question is
IF all leads wagons are town
Would scum a) Take action on the CFD ing to another townie ? IF yes , why ?
b) IF a CFD happening outside of them , what would they do ?
I believe it is what we should solve here .

a) only if they're powerwolfing
do you think scum are powerwolfing (i.e., taking control over the game and hard pushing lynches)
I don't think so, again this is not a ladd/gent/TPA scum game so no one is powerwolfing here, so if scum do have more control over the game than town then that means we have several townies not pulling their weight

b)idk I feel like they'd be more split, but like day 2 this is matter of "we can't read into activity based voting"
Pretty much everyone who was active at the time of the crimson push voted for him, same can be said about the chemist wagon. Like we can't find scum just from the votes themselves, it's gonna be about the motivation behind them

[UzayAltay]

day 2 wagon is kinda useless to look at for vca purposes since everyone just piled onto chemist
I'll need to go back and check vote context probably, but even that might be hard since soul literally had a guilty on chemist

but here's day 1 updated with confirmed alignments

Crimson|5|Jezz, Chemist, Mario, Noping, Eragon
Juck|2|Wabbit, Uzay
Wabbit|1|Soul
Jezz|1|Crimson
Chemist|1|Juck

not voting: tfios, phone, takumi


I'm way more biased here cos I know I'm town and imo I have doubts that scum would feel the need to pile on crimsons wagon if they knew the counter choices were town + a non threatening wagon on chemist.

But for everyone else:
- Do you think there were 0,1 or 2 scum other than chemist on the wagon? if 1-2, who is/are most likely?
- If there is 1 scum there other than chemist, would the other scum be more likely uzay, or a non-voter?
- If there is 0 scum there other than chemist, where would the 2 scum be?

2 is impossible unless Eragon/Jezz , which I cant see , and if it is the answer we are already lost. ( I dont think no other scum team except this can pull this off )
Both 1 and 0 is possible , thinking more on 1 like yesterday , bur 0 isnt off-possibility , due juck flipping v as well .

SO, from my PoV , ( assuming you are v ) , It is at least 1 in ( tfios, phone, takumi ) and at most 1 in ( Mario, Noping, Eragon ) .

[Jezz92]

I changed my mind about uzay I think he might be town now.

[UzayAltay]

i also do not wanna believe there could be more than one scum on crimsons's wagon as well, cos that would mean scum took control of EOD 1 and majority of town reaaaaly aren't doing anything

The question is
IF all leads wagons are town
Would scum a) Take action on the CFD ing to another townie ? IF yes , why ?
b) IF a CFD happening outside of them , what would they do ?
I believe it is what we should solve here .

a) only if they're powerwolfing
do you think scum are powerwolfing (i.e., taking control over the game and hard pushing lynches)
I don't think so, again this is not a ladd/gent/TPA scum game so no one is powerwolfing here, so if scum do have more control over the game than town then that means we have several townies not pulling their weight

b)idk I feel like they'd be more split, but like day 2 this is matter of "we can't read into activity based voting"
Pretty much everyone who was active at the time of the crimson push voted for him, same can be said about the chemist wagon. Like we can't find scum just from the votes themselves, it's gonna be about the motivation behind them

Umm this was mainly about day1 lynch . But if day 1 happens with " I am here , so /vote Crimson " , than we will have hard times.