VFM28: Twin Trap | White Flag (Not Entirely Awful | Maf Win)

[Eragon1329]

I’ll try to keep it more civil though

Sorry James

[EvanManManMan]

Wabbit are there any timelines where I don't get lynched?

it's that timeline where I didn't scumread you D1

I still don't remember why you scumread me day one

[EvanManManMan]

ejj the less you try to more obvious you get

Translate pls

[EvanManManMan]

Wabbit what would I need to change your mind

[TheWabbit]

The problem is, the scum will most likely kill multi, in which case no real info will be gathered.

Also, I read the ISO’s, so you have thought Evan is scum from d1?
Throwing shade, scummy posts, etc?

Multi dies after Evan gets lynched and the game continues.
It's 4v2, where we NL.
Someone (probs me as I'm the safest kill) will die, and the remaining 3 townies have to think clearly to find at least one scum.

[TheWabbit]

Wabbit are there any timelines where I don't get lynched?

it's that timeline where I didn't scumread you D1

I still don't remember why you scumread me day one

IIRC

scorpio making the unnecessary talk with you for a long time, your sudden jump to ejj, and your odd tone when interacting with people
you specifically said that the only way my thoughts to be possible is if both you and scorpio are scum
and the events unfolded themselves

[TheWabbit]

amazing as how something innocuous from D1 could be used as evidence

[TheWabbit]

Wabbit what would I need to change your mind

same thing I said D2

otherwise you have to really incriminate someone else

[TheWabbit]

by that you would have to make use of VCA (using Jezz's D1 could help but you're gonna look at D2 and D3 more), NKA and NK commentary by players, associations, and hasty pressuring where your target crumbles to oblivion

[EvanManManMan]

i keep forgetting to vote fml

/vote EvanManManMan

why him? you didn't place him anywhere in your reads, was it a serious vote?

His behavior is similar to powerwolfing
gain towncred early (because this is the fastest way to get towncred)
lead the town
bus mafia member

then you'll see "VFM28: Twin Trap | White Flag (Mafia Wins!)"

So then you should be thinking Ejj is scum as well as you noted bussing. You townread him though. Which one will change?

No I said they are only possible if Ejj and I are both scum

[EvanManManMan]

by that you would have to make use of VCA (using Jezz's D1 could help but you're gonna look at D2 and D3 more), NKA and NK commentary by players, associations, and hasty pressuring where your target crumbles to oblivion

I already made use of Non's wagon to prove Ejj is scum but I can go on

[TheWabbit]

I didn't exactly trust my D1 scumreads that much but I have used patterns I've seen others play when they're scumhunting D1
my D2 Tracker claiming push was to drive scum crazy (which worked, looking at Scorpio)

[Eragon1329]

and if Evan is town?

[TheWabbit]

let's ignore ejj right now
who do you think are his scumbuddies

it's hard to determine ejj because they were basically nonexistent during D3 which is bad
I could've determined their alignment if they're on during D3, knowing that they'd make active/passive reactions basing on the wagon progressions

[Eragon1329]

I see Evan having about a 40% chance of flipping red, while Kira has about an 80% chance.

Kira is probably the safest Lynch, but I mean, if you want to risk the loss, we can go on Evan.

[EvanManManMan]

I already placed Ejj and Crimson as a likely team based on the Non wagon.

The last scum is in Claudia/Kira which shouldn't be too hard to figure out. I think solving Claudia here will solve the pair as Ejj and Claudia have some pretty extensive interactions

[Eragon1329]

well if its just claudia/kira

id say Claudia is confirmed town and Kira is confirmed scum

if there is one scum out of those 2

[EvanManManMan]

The wagon progression on Non:

Spoiler:

/vote non

tempted to OMGUS this

Awful post by him

tbh Kira is more likely scum than those two.
/vote xoKira

Zero explanation, probably thinking I'm an easy target
He's about to be shown that I'm not an easy town lynch

Reminder that Kira hasnt explain their vote on me.

Hypocrisy

Wait poly is that claim legit?

I'm curious about that as well.

Is it?

/vote poly

Wait poly is that claim legit?

I'm curious about that as well.

Is it?

/vote Poly

Could this be an attempt to quick hammer?
btw ignore my last post.

Says this when it's clearly not

okay Kira may be VI at best.

Trying to make the wide majority of people doubt me by calling me a village idiot which I find pretty offensive seeing as if he's town he seems to be pretty bad

Kira had voted Non in an earlier post but this is her reasoning. It is well written and shows her thoughts well.

Right now I am confident that the play is not to lynch who CAN be scum, it is to lynch who CAN'T NOT be scum.

Basically if we consecutively lynch Crimson Non and Kira we are near guaranteed to hit scum. Once scum is found we can branch off of there but the key right now is to find a stem and branch off of it

This was the next post involving Non as a lynch target and it was by me. Here I stated that chainlynching Non Crimson and Kira would most likely hit one scum. In hindsight this was probably wrong (although not impossible) but it showcased thoughts that show early willingness to his lynch.

Then I voted for Crimson. Kira asked me to vote Non. I said that I would at EoD but wanted a vote count.

Idk

I think there’s max one scum in the trio unless Wabbit is powerwolfing

So you think that I'm bussing one of {EvanManManMan, ScorpioDiAngelo}?

He specifically said he didn't unless you were glgl

I was mentioning the situation wherein I was scum. Their post implies that if I'm scum, then one of you two must be scum as well.

Yeah if you’re scum then you’re bussing one of Evan or Scorpio, or rather you’re doing a S v S but not hardbussing

/vote non

Then Multi voted Non. The thought really isn't clear but Multi is conf town so heavy analysis is not needed.

Then Ejj did his vca catch up. In there he said that Non's stance on Kosmo was odd but never mentioned him again outside of stating that he couldn't read Kira's vote on him. In his summary he stated Non had a high chance of flipping scum as well, which contradicts the lack of presence that he showed in Ejj's reads. I can quote this if needed and the only reason I didn't was because of Multi spoilers.

Wabbit then argued with Kira a bit.

and I wouldn't want a crims lynch today. I got good vibes from fenr and am not really scumreading crims.

I think lynching non might be best after all. :/

Now things get interesting. Ejj decides for the reason of Fenraiser that Crimson is a bad lynch. This defense is weak and could definitely be scum defending scum. He then restates that he wants to lynch Non again, having little expressed thoughts about him.

Then I ask if there is opposition to a Non lynch of course, with no response.

Ejj makes another post about Non but the only content he says is that he thinks Crimson and Non can't be a scum team, an accusation that as scum, he would have 100% certainty of.

/vote Non

I think we gotta

Then I decide to vote Non because a Crimson wagon was going to go nowhere and it was the best option at the time to ensure our lynch was optimal.

Ugh. Unfortunately. /Vote Non
But if at any point a cfd onto wabbit or evan becomes a possibility please let me know.

Scorpio then votes Non with opposition made evident, similarly to what he did with MM. He also states 2 impossible cfd targets which as stated earlier, makes us unlikely buddies with Scorp.

Then Kira posts about a possible Non/Crimson/Claudia scum tean to which Ejj feels the need to defend Crimson although defending Crimson there was unnecessary.

/vote non

Ejj votes Non. Note that the other voters of Non placed some reasoning in the same post that they voted in but Ejj didn't. His previous explanations were bad and lacking so the most logical reasoning for this vote is a mislynch push.

Then James gives a VC and I express consent to the wagon. Other discussion in that period is unrelated to Non.

Then Ejj asks to hammer which was ok at the time but looks really bad in hindsight. Again I can quote if necessary.

Non then makes the statement that there are 2-3 scum on his wagon, which would be Scorpio and Ejj.

No time to change wagons. Kira you better explain that vote now cause i might not believe you tomorrow.

/Vote non

Crimson votes for Non next. He places no time to change as his motivation, which is fair, but they also say that Kira's vote had no explanation, which is wrong. I feel like it is to preemptively set up a basis to scumread Kira the next day.

Crimson states a possible Kira cfd option but Ejj shuts it down, again prompting that Ejj is scum.

Non self hammers and day 2 ends

Final wagon: xoKira, Multiuniverse, EvanManManMan, ScorpioDiAngelo, Ejjinami, Crimson97, non271103

Highlighting confirmed players we have: xoKira, Multiuniverse, EvanManManMan, ScorpioDiAngelo, Ejjinami, Crimson97, non271103

Analysis the wagon gives us this: xoKira, Multiuniverse, EvanManManMan, ScorpioDiAngelo, Ejjinami, Crimson97, non271103

Crimson is the unknown variable on this wagon. Ejj defending them prompts a scum team but their day 3 play is making me think otherwise. Associations on this wagon pin Kira and myself as town and Ejj as scum, and I don't see how you could see the opposite anywhere.

For easy access

I am less sure Kira is town from this as I was before though

[EvanManManMan]

Friendly reminder that scum could easily have planned this bus in advance

[TheWabbit]

did your opinion on kosmo slot change since D2

[TheWabbit]

Friendly reminder that scum could easily have planned this bus in advance

scorpio wagon?

[EvanManManMan]

Friendly reminder that scum could easily have planned this bus in advance

scorpio wagon?

Yes

[EvanManManMan]

did your opinion on kosmo slot change since D2

Originally I saw Kosmo as scum but once he explained things better I kinda just let him slide. I can see more realistic town motivation behind Kosmo's actions than scum motivations. Eragon is playing exactly how I would expect noob town to play but I may have slight bias since he is siding with me.

[TheWabbit]

kira besides D3 eod do you have any other reason to view evan as scum

you read Wabbit v Evan as TvT D2 and that didn't make much progression ever since

[TheWabbit]

on hindsight

do you think scum reacted to Multi's reaction test D1