[Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Game Over (Town Won)

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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby qwertyuiopl » Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:37 pm

Here are the claims right now, desert.
Town Killing- Zorua
Random Town 1- Me :)
Random Town 2- TrueGuardian32 (claims doctor) and Kosmo (claims lookout)
Citizen 1- Desertstorm11
Citizen 2- polypies
Citizen 3- GoogleFeud
Twilight hasn't claimed.
Either true or Kosmo is mafia, and one of {polypies, Google, twilight} is mafia.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby TrueGuardian32 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:37 pm

TI - Dead
TP - Dead
TK - Zorua (Confirmed Cause No CC)
RT - Me / kosmo(kosmo is mafia)
RT - qwert(Confirmed)
Citizen - Dead
Citizen - Dead
Citizen - DesertStorm (Confirmed)
Citizen - GoogleFeud
Citizen - Polypies

TG3 has not claimed, for obvious reasons. (No Replacement yet)

Right now we are in a me vs kosmo state, I've posted my defense and have looked at kosmo's posts.
kosmo has yet to post his/her defense.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby TrueGuardian32 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:38 pm

I got to go, I'll be back in a hour or longer. Hopefully I'll only take 30 minutes.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby kosmo16 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:49 pm

I always play with the odds. You can check I am doing the same things as in my previous game. I defend myself, even in this post. I just don't know what to do. You just outplayed me with the quotes.

qwertyuiopl wrote:Odds of there being a consort are
1/3 + 1/5
=8/15
Which is over 1/2...
If there is a consort, they could easily block the real RT and kill me.


I will do math for you :) It is 28,88% (1/5 + 1/9 - (1/5 * 1/9)).
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby qwertyuiopl » Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:53 pm

kosmo16 wrote:I always play with the odds. You can check I am doing the same things as in my previous game. I defend myself, even in this post. I just don't know what to do. You just outplayed me with the quotes.

qwertyuiopl wrote:Odds of there being a consort are
1/3 + 1/5
=8/15
Which is over 1/2...
If there is a consort, they could easily block the real RT and kill me.


I will do math for you :) It is 28,88% (1/5 + 1/9 - (1/5 * 1/9)).

wait wut
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby TrueGuardian32 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:21 pm

qwertyuiopl wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:I always play with the odds. You can check I am doing the same things as in my previous game. I defend myself, even in this post. I just don't know what to do. You just outplayed me with the quotes.

qwertyuiopl wrote:Odds of there being a consort are
1/3 + 1/5
=8/15
Which is over 1/2...
If there is a consort, they could easily block the real RT and kill me.


I will do math for you :) It is 28,88% (1/5 + 1/9 - (1/5 * 1/9)).

wait wut


He's saying because I went in my own ISO history and brought up evidence of my mindset during the game that I'm winning the argument.
He's using statistics and math to lure the town over to his side, while I'm using things that have happened this game and other games.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby qwertyuiopl » Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:40 pm

TrueGuardian32 wrote:
qwertyuiopl wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:I always play with the odds. You can check I am doing the same things as in my previous game. I defend myself, even in this post. I just don't know what to do. You just outplayed me with the quotes.

qwertyuiopl wrote:Odds of there being a consort are
1/3 + 1/5
=8/15
Which is over 1/2...
If there is a consort, they could easily block the real RT and kill me.


I will do math for you :) It is 28,88% (1/5 + 1/9 - (1/5 * 1/9)).

wait wut


He's saying because I went in my own ISO history and brought up evidence of my mindset during the game that I'm winning the argument.
He's using statistics and math to lure the town over to his side, while I'm using things that have happened this game and other games.

No I meant how'd he get those number
I am confuse
How math done is?
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby TrueGuardian32 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:41 pm

qwertyuiopl wrote:
TrueGuardian32 wrote:
qwertyuiopl wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:I always play with the odds. You can check I am doing the same things as in my previous game. I defend myself, even in this post. I just don't know what to do. You just outplayed me with the quotes.

qwertyuiopl wrote:Odds of there being a consort are
1/3 + 1/5
=8/15
Which is over 1/2...
If there is a consort, they could easily block the real RT and kill me.


I will do math for you :) It is 28,88% (1/5 + 1/9 - (1/5 * 1/9)).

wait wut


He's saying because I went in my own ISO history and brought up evidence of my mindset during the game that I'm winning the argument.
He's using statistics and math to lure the town over to his side, while I'm using things that have happened this game and other games.

No I meant how'd he get those number
I am confuse
How math done is?


How dah heck do I know. Ask him.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby ZoruaLuhansk » Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:44 pm

The chance there is a Consort = chance of Consort in MT/S + chance of Consort in RM - chance of Consort in both
chance of Consort = 1/5 + 1/9 - 1/45 = 13/45 = 28.88888888888888888%
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby qwertyuiopl » Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:49 pm

Oh oops. I think I did consort as part of maf tactical, and random mafia as maf support + maf tactical. Somehow.
Anyways, since you're here Zor, who do you think is more likely to be mafia?
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby kosmo16 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:59 pm

TrueGuardian32 wrote:
qwertyuiopl wrote:
kosmo16 wrote:I always play with the odds. You can check I am doing the same things as in my previous game. I defend myself, even in this post. I just don't know what to do. You just outplayed me with the quotes.

qwertyuiopl wrote:Odds of there being a consort are
1/3 + 1/5
=8/15
Which is over 1/2...
If there is a consort, they could easily block the real RT and kill me.


I will do math for you :) It is 28,88% (1/5 + 1/9 - (1/5 * 1/9)).

wait wut


He's saying because I went in my own ISO history and brought up evidence of my mindset during the game that I'm winning the argument.
He's using statistics and math to lure the town over to his side, while I'm using things that have happened this game and other games.


I am using math, statistics and reasoning in my games, it is true. I can't see nothing bad in it. He asked what're odds for consort. I gave the odds. I can also give a chance to win in certain scenarios, if you want. At least I didn't give a questions which were helping Mafia. Sounds familiar True?
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby ZoruaLuhansk » Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:02 pm

I honestly think kosmo is the more mafia one. If I was mafia claiming doctor, I would say I healed kosmo for example instead of saying I need to check something with Lexiam.

The ability to do math is not alignment indicative.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby kosmo16 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:18 pm

ZoruaLuhansk wrote:I honestly think kosmo is the more mafia one. If I was mafia claiming doctor, I would say I healed kosmo for example instead of saying I need to check something with Lexiam.

The ability to do math is not alignment indicative.


As Mafia you can choose a role at the beginning of the game, then act like you are this role. This is how TrueGuardian played. This is perfect cover, the drawback is that you cannot change during the game most likely.

My problem on Forum Mafia and in Town of Salem as well in these kind of situations, when I need to convince others that I am a good guy, is that I have a cold personality. I can't do anything with this :(
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby polypies73 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:20 pm

Woah, a lot of stuff has happened since I was gone.
A) we need to calm down, slow things down.
B) lexiam should re-post that a replacement is needed, as at this ratte we almost need to paise the game.
C) The fact that an extra perrson is gone, as we really can’t figure out which claims are wrong.

I guess it’s time for some interrogating between kosmo and true.
First of all, i’d like to say the way we mass-claimed was nott so great, especially since one player is not in the game.
Did you guys not learn from last game? We are lucky qwerty was rt and not cit, otherwise we would’ve had another dilenma with 3 people claiming rt and one being mafia....
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby kosmo16 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:30 pm

We are at least sure that there is:
1 Mafia in {TrueGuardian, kosmo16}
1 Mafia in {polypies, TwilightGlow, google}

If we lynch each day, we have 3 lynches to get both evils. We can skip lynch today it won't change a number of lynches available.
Chance to win with correct lynch today is 66% and with incorrect 33%.
I think I have both qwertyuiop and Zorua against me, if Desert thinks it is me, then you should vote me up. But let me self-hammer I want to give you an instruction for the day after tomorrow. TrueGuardian said that my reads were on point in last games, maybe this time they are as well. I will go to sleep now.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby qwertyuiopl » Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:35 pm

/vote Kosmo
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby qwertyuiopl » Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:36 pm

Nobody else vote until lex has a vote count up.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby polypies73 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:49 pm

SLOW DOWN. DON’T VOTE YET. YOU COULD EASILYY LET MAFIA SWOOP.

True: Why did you self-heal n2? Why not be on someone else? Especially with other PR claims.

I have something else to say, but I would like to hear desert’s opinion first.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby qwertyuiopl » Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:51 pm

polypies73 wrote:SLOW DOWN. DON’T VOTE YET. YOU COULD EASILYY LET MAFIA SWOOP.

True: Why did you self-heal n2? Why not be on someone else? Especially with other PR claims.

I have something else to say, but I would like to hear desert’s opinion first.

They wouldn't. To do so would be basically confirming themselves as mafia.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby polypies73 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:02 pm

How?

It would be reasonable to vote as everyone seems to think true is mafia.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby qwertyuiopl » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:07 pm

polypies73 wrote:How?

It would be reasonable to vote as everyone seems to think true is mafia.

Uhhhhhhh actually me and Zorua both think Kosmo is...
Also, you just said that I should vote... The post after you said I shouldn't vote.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby polypies73 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:08 pm

qwertyuiopl wrote:
polypies73 wrote:How?

It would be reasonable to vote as everyone seems to think true is mafia.

Uhhhhhhh actually me and Zorua both think Kosmo is...
Also, you just said that I should vote... The post after you said I shouldn't vote.


I meant kosmo not true,sorry.

Also when did I say to vote?
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby polypies73 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:08 pm

polypies73 wrote:How?

It would be reasonable to vote as everyone seems to think true is mafia.


Do you mean this?
I am saying the way we are acting now everyone will just vote kosmo casually, including the mafia.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby qwertyuiopl » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:10 pm

polypies73 wrote:
polypies73 wrote:How?

It would be reasonable to vote as everyone seems to think true is mafia.


Do you mean this?
I am saying the way we are acting now everyone will just vote kosmo casually, including the mafia.

But what about the post that I had literally right after voting Kosmo?
qwertyuiopl wrote:Nobody else vote until lex has a vote count up.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM49 | Day 3 (Spooky Halloween)

Postby TrueGuardian32 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:16 pm

polypies73 wrote:SLOW DOWN. DON’T VOTE YET. YOU COULD EASILYY LET MAFIA SWOOP.

True: Why did you self-heal n2? Why not be on someone else? Especially with other PR claims.

I have something else to say, but I would like to hear desert’s opinion first.


I already explained why I self healed n2, check my posts.
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