Episode XII | Game Over [Town Wins]

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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby ChubbyMooshroom9 » Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:17 pm

Sevohaseth wrote:
ChubbyMooshroom9 wrote:
Sevohaseth wrote:Chubby, stahp. I agree more than Elusive that Olly has a chance at being Arso, but we're not lynching him today.

You're not doused and quite personally I wish to not be ignited

You're being very anti-town by being so personally motivated.

There's also the 3 other doused. I know people want to lynch Gent but we have two essentially confirmed town also doused. It's just not myself Sevo, I just came to mind
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby Sevohaseth » Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:21 pm

ChubbyMooshroom9 wrote:
Sevohaseth wrote:
ChubbyMooshroom9 wrote:
Sevohaseth wrote:Chubby, stahp. I agree more than Elusive that Olly has a chance at being Arso, but we're not lynching him today.

You're not doused and quite personally I wish to not be ignited

You're being very anti-town by being so personally motivated.

There's also the 3 other doused. I know people want to lynch Gent but we have two essentially confirmed town also doused. It's just not myself Sevo, I just came to mind

You seem to be the only doused one that cares so much and ignores any discussion about locking in a town win despite possible ignition. Even Gent has been so less hyper focused than you.
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby ChubbyMooshroom9 » Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:26 pm

Sevohaseth wrote:
ChubbyMooshroom9 wrote:
Sevohaseth wrote:
ChubbyMooshroom9 wrote:
Sevohaseth wrote:Chubby, stahp. I agree more than Elusive that Olly has a chance at being Arso, but we're not lynching him today.

You're not doused and quite personally I wish to not be ignited

You're being very anti-town by being so personally motivated.

There's also the 3 other doused. I know people want to lynch Gent but we have two essentially confirmed town also doused. It's just not myself Sevo, I just came to mind

You seem to be the only doused one that cares so much and ignores any discussion about locking in a town win despite possible ignition. Even Gent has been so less hyper focused than you.

Because lynching the Arsonist ( I think I get what you're saying) saves 4 town(in most cases 3 because Gent is scum for many) and then PoE helps get mafia easy, along with behavior and other factors.
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby Sevohaseth » Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:40 pm

The issue is most people aren't as convinced as you are that Olly is the arso, including me, and mislynching town!Olly is an abysmal play when more safe options are available even with an ignition from arso!Olly based on the numbers and PoE. Can you at least see how if we purposefully don't lynch the arso today, lynching you or Gent makes some sort of sense?
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby PurpleSidewalk1 » Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:41 pm

TrueGent wrote:im like
90% sure lynching me solves the game regardless of my flip
can we just fucking do it already

I'm 100% sure because I ran the numbers like 9 times.
TrueGent wrote:why have I not been hammered
there is 0 downsides to this

I literally have my hands in my head reading over Chubby vs Elusive.
tfiosforevah wrote:Gent, would you mind explaining how lynching you would seemingly help everyone no matter what you flip?

kys I've explain this like 8 times
TrueGent wrote:my lynch solves the Swords/Gent team debate whilst making impossible for the arso (Olly) to ignite tonight
its not rocket science

And it negates murat's alignment in the probability of town winning. Basically lynching Gent means town wins even if I am arso.
ChubbyMooshroom9 wrote:Or we can just lynch the Arso and get this over with

@Elusive no, it does not. Had he results on Stri he wouldn't have pushed you. He would have voted Stri, and using his information, led a wagon without claiming.

Thay came out awkward but my point stands. Olly, as arso, makes sense. Consig is impossible with Swords

FUCKING GIVE UP! No one agrees with you. Also saying consig!Olly is impossible makes me want to blow my fucking brains out.
MichaelgRook wrote:@Purple, what's the plan for a post-chubby lynch?

Ummmm I am kinda leaning towards lynching Gent now, but if we were to lynch chubby and put trust in murat then it would basically just be listen to murat and PoE everything. I showed how you could do that when he was town in a previous post. I will now show what the game looks like if Chubby flips mafia:
Spoiler: Lynch Chubby Possibility:
Chubby is Town - 7v3v1 N5 if ignite: WCS 4v2v1 BCS 5v1v1, N5 if no ignite: WCS 6v3v1 BCS 7v3v1
Chubby is Mafia - 8v2v1 N5 if ignite: 5v2v1, N5 if no ignite: 7v2v1
Chubby is lynched, he is mafia, 8v2v1. Chubby being mafia tells us almost nothing on it’s own. We have to trust murat is town and Cow should have the alignment of either Olly, Swords, or both. If we have Olly and Swords’ alignments + one less mafia member to worry about the game becomes much easier.
Let’s assume that Arso wouldn’t ignite in this case because the BCS for him is 4v2v1 (if Gent is town which is unlikely it would probably be 5v1v1) and that is shit so he douses someone who is probably not arso and probably isn’t going to be lynched like met or murat or whatever. One mafia kill on myself, swords/olly (if one of them isn’t mafia), or met/sevo/michael (I’m going to assume they go for the safe kill because of the possibility Elusive saves me) ends us at 7v2v1 with 4 douses (likely 3-4 on town). The following is what we know.
If mafia kill is on met and murat is doused:
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - murat
Random Town - swords/olly
Citizen - michael/sevo/tfios
Citizen - michael/sevo/tfios
Citizen - micheal/sevo/tfios
Godfather (if chubby was gf and olly is town then it’s gg) - michael/sevo/tfios - gent - swords/olly
Random Mafia - tfios(/michael/sevo if olly is not town) - gent - swords/olly
Arsonist - olly/swords/michael/sevo

If Mafia kill is on olly/swords (I will use o!s to describe the one alive) and murat is doused:
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - murat
Citizen - met
Citizen - tfios
Citizen - micheal/sevo
Godfather - gent - o!s
Random Mafia - gent - o!s
Arsonist - michael/sevo

So given the VAST difference between those two options you can see how knowing Swords or Olly’s alignment just solves this fucking game, right? I don’t even feel I need to encorporate the results of murat after showing that.



I'm going to make some coherent rolelists and possible plans to fit with my Gent lynch.
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby PurpleSidewalk1 » Thu Apr 13, 2017 5:15 pm

@Gent I just discovered something really weird: if you are town and met is town and olly is town then both tfios and chubby have to be mafia. Basically, if you are town and olly is town then the game don't make much sense. Holy shit, this might be a scenario in which the mafia kill has to either be a doused person or they hand us the game. :o

WE ARE LYNCHING GENT NO MATTER WHAT! Even if he is town we win no matter what.

Here is some information that might not be 100% accurate since the last information on Chubby needs to be adjusted a bit which I won't do because Gent lynch is best lynch:
Spoiler: Lynch Gent possibility:
Gent is Town - 7v3v1 N5 if ignite: WCS 4v2v1 BCS 5v1v1, N5 if no ignite: 6v3v1. Conclusion: arso will not ignite if Gent is town.

I will outline a WCS without ignite, because ignite is so dumb I can’t see anyone doing it, to show how regardless of the outcome of Gent’s role, town always wins with this lynch.

Lynch Gent, he is town, 7v3v1. Arso doesn’t ignite, rather he douses murat because now that I think about it that is the most obvious douse ever. Mafia kill is on Swords/Olly (if one is not town and the other is mafia) or met. The following is what we know. [(X s) means only if swords is town and (X o) means only if olly is town]
If mafia kill is met:
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - murat
Random Town - swords/olly
Citizen - micheal/sevo/tfios/chubby
Godfather - michael/sevo/tfios/chubby - swords/olly
Random Mafia - chubby/tfios(/michael/sevo o) - swords/olly
Random Mafia - chubby/tfios(/michael/sevo o) - swords/olly
Arsonist - olly/swords(/michael/sevo s)

If mafia kill is Swords/Olly and again o!s for the one that isn’t dead:
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - murat
Citizen - michael/sevo(/met o) - (tfios/chubby s)
Citizen - tfios/chubby(/micheal/sevo/met o)
Godfather - met/micheal/sevo - tfios/chubby - o!s
Random Mafia - chubby/tfios(/met/michael/sevo o) - o!s
Random Mafia - chubby/tfios(/met/michael/sevo o) - o!s
Arsonist - met(/michael/sevo o)

Gent is Mafia - 8v2v1 N5 if ignite: 5v2v1, N5 if no ignite: 7v2v1. Conclusion: unknown, arso will ignite based upon their position in the game, ie: if Olly!Arso feels that Cow knows he is Arso then he will ignite to fuck over town before Murat helps off him.
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby Sevohaseth » Thu Apr 13, 2017 5:21 pm

@Purple I haven't fully processed your post yet, but want to point out a situation that would lead arso to ignite that you might be overlooking. Once arso ignites, the pressure to find them is lower and they can coast a few nights getting more douses which they may feel leads them to a path to victory. Not sure how much that changes anything.
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby PurpleSidewalk1 » Thu Apr 13, 2017 5:48 pm

Sevohaseth wrote:@Purple I haven't fully processed your post yet, but want to point out a situation that would lead arso to ignite that you might be overlooking. Once arso ignites, the pressure to find them is lower and they can coast a few nights getting more douses which they may feel leads them to a path to victory. Not sure how much that changes anything.

fuck sorry I posted those findings too quickly sorry I have to go over the possibilities on chubby or tfios being mafia if Gent flips town and also (X o) means only if olly is NOT town. Sorry my whole thing is sloppily written up atm. I swear it comes together nicely if I just write it correctly.
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby Swordsworth » Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:18 pm

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I'll make sure to set up a wire.


I'll be expecting it in person (^:,'
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby murat1996 » Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:21 pm

PurpleSidewalk1 wrote:@Gent I just discovered something really weird: if you are town and met is town and olly is town then both tfios and chubby have to be mafia. Basically, if you are town and olly is town then the game don't make much sense. Holy shit, this might be a scenario in which the mafia kill has to either be a doused person or they hand us the game. :o

WE ARE LYNCHING GENT NO MATTER WHAT! Even if he is town we win no matter what.

Here is some information that might not be 100% accurate since the last information on Chubby needs to be adjusted a bit which I won't do because Gent lynch is best lynch:
Spoiler: Lynch Gent possibility:
Gent is Town - 7v3v1 N5 if ignite: WCS 4v2v1 BCS 5v1v1, N5 if no ignite: 6v3v1. Conclusion: arso will not ignite if Gent is town.

I will outline a WCS without ignite, because ignite is so dumb I can’t see anyone doing it, to show how regardless of the outcome of Gent’s role, town always wins with this lynch.

Lynch Gent, he is town, 7v3v1. Arso doesn’t ignite, rather he douses murat because now that I think about it that is the most obvious douse ever. Mafia kill is on Swords/Olly (if one is not town and the other is mafia) or met. The following is what we know. [(X s) means only if swords is town and (X o) means only if olly is town]
If mafia kill is met:
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - murat
Random Town - swords/olly
Citizen - micheal/sevo/tfios/chubby
Godfather - michael/sevo/tfios/chubby - swords/olly
Random Mafia - chubby/tfios(/michael/sevo o) - swords/olly
Random Mafia - chubby/tfios(/michael/sevo o) - swords/olly
Arsonist - olly/swords(/michael/sevo s)

If mafia kill is Swords/Olly and again o!s for the one that isn’t dead:
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - murat
Citizen - michael/sevo(/met o) - (tfios/chubby s)
Citizen - tfios/chubby(/micheal/sevo/met o)
Godfather - met/micheal/sevo - tfios/chubby - o!s
Random Mafia - chubby/tfios(/met/michael/sevo o) - o!s
Random Mafia - chubby/tfios(/met/michael/sevo o) - o!s
Arsonist - met(/michael/sevo o)

Gent is Mafia - 8v2v1 N5 if ignite: 5v2v1, N5 if no ignite: 7v2v1. Conclusion: unknown, arso will ignite based upon their position in the game, ie: if Olly!Arso feels that Cow knows he is Arso then he will ignite to fuck over town before Murat helps off him.


Hmm, u want Gent's lynch which is fine, but I prefer a Swords lynch more than anything, but I'll hammer Gent if they are at L-1 before Swords.
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby TrueGent » Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:28 pm

Image mfw purple is the only person making sense Image
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby ObiWan » Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:07 pm

Current Vote Count
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This was not the scumslip you were looking for.


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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby TheWolfBuddy » Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:17 pm

Spoiler:
PurpleSidewalk1 wrote:
ChubbyMooshroom9 wrote:Purple that WCS brings us down to 2v3v1

No matter what happens there mafia wins. And, just for you, let's assume Gent is scum. It ends up in 2v2v1, where Olly kingmakes.

Literally lynching town and arso ignite means loss

Can you fucking count? There is literally no way to even possibly get to 2v3v1. No matter what we do we cannot get to 2v3v1.

Gent or tfios is scum if you are town. That is a fact. Here I'll fucking show you because you can't fucking count:
[spoiler]Possibility 1: Swords!Arso, Murat!Town, Olly!Town
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - olly
Random Town - murat
Citizen - michael/sevo
Citizen - Chubby
Citizen - met/micheal/sevo/tfios

Godfather - michael/sevo - met/chubby/tfios - gent
Disguiser - met/chubby/tfios - gent
Random Mafia - met/chubby/tfios - gent

Arsonist - swords

Possibility 2: Sword!Arso, Murat!Mafia, Olly!Town (basically it is possible here but only if Murat!Mafia)
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - olly
Random Town - Chubby
Citizen - michael/sevo
Citizen - met/michael/sevo/chubby/tfios/gent
Citizen - met/micheal/sevo/chubby/tfios/gent

Godfather - michael/sevo - met/tfios - murat
Disguiser - met/tfios - murat
Random Mafia - met/chubby/tfios - murat

Arsonist - swords

Possibility 3: Swords!Arso, Murat!Town, Olly!Mafia
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - murat
Random Town - Chubby
Citizen - met/michael/sevo/chubby/tfios
Citizen - met/michael/sevo/chubby/tfios
Citizen - met/micheal/sevo/chubby/tfios

Godfather - michael/sevo/met/chubby/tfios - gent
Consig - olly
Random Mafia - met/chubby/tfios/michael/sevo - gent

Arsonist - swords

Possibility 4: Swords!Mafia, Murat!Town, Olly!Town
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - murat
Random Town - olly
Citizen - michael/sevo
Citizen - chubby
Citizen - micheal/sevo/tfios

Godfather - sevo/michael/tfios - gent/swords
Disguiser - tfios - gent/swords
Random Mafia - tfios - gent/swords

Arsonist - met

Possibility 5: Swords!Mafia, Murat!Arso, Olly!Town (highly unlikely IMO), in this case it could be Swords, michael/sevo, and met, but Murat!Arso seems unlikely to me and that mafia team seems really out there
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - olly
Random Town - chubby
Citizen - michael/sevo
Citizen - met/tfios/gent
Citizen - met/micheal/sevo/tfios/gent

Godfather - michael/sevo - met/chubby/tfios/gent - swords
Disguiser - met/gent/tfios - swords
Random Mafia - met/gent/tfios - swords

Arsonist - murat

Possibility 6: Swords!Town, Murat!Town, Olly!Mafia
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - murat
Random Town - swords
Citizen - chubby
Citizen - met/michael/sevo/tfios
Citizen - met/micheal/sevo/tfios

Godfather - met/michael/sevo/tfios - gent
Consig - olly
Random Mafia - met/tfios/michael/sevo - gent

Arsonist - met/sevo/michael (since Olly could have faked results)

Possibility 7: Swords!Town, Murat!Mafia, Olly!Mafia, another fringe case which is weird af where you could have a michael/met/sevo, murat, olly mafia, but I don't think anyone thinks this is a thing lol
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - swords
Random Town - Chubby
Citizen - met/michael/sevo/tfios/gent
Citizen - met/michael/sevo/tfios/gent
Citizen - met/micheal/sevo/tfios/gent

Godfather - met/michael/sevo/tfios - murat
Consig - olly
Random Mafia - met/tfios/michael/sevo - murat

Arsonist - met/sevo/michael

Possibility 8: Sword!Town, Murat!Arso, Olly!Mafia, another one that has murat as arso and it is still pretty iffy and I would put met, tfios, and sevo above gent and michael in this case.
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - swords
Random Town - Chubby
Citizen - met/michael/sevo/tfios/gent
Citizen - met/michael/sevo/tfios/gent
Citizen - met/micheal/sevo/tfios/gent

Godfather - michael/sevo/met/tfios/gent
Consig - olly
Random Mafia - michael/sevo/met/gent/tfios

Arsonist - murat



Remote Possibility 1: Swords!Town, Murat!Town, Olly!Arso
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - swords
Random Town - murat
Citizen - chubby
Citizen - met/michael/sevo/tfios
Citizen - met/micheal/sevo/tfios

Godfather - met/michael/sevo/tfios - gent
Random Mafia - met/tfios/michael/sevo - gent
Random Mafia - met/tfios/michael/sevo - gent

Arsonist - Olly

Remote Possibility 2: Swords!Town, Murat!Mafia, Olly!Arso
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - swords
Random Town - Chubby
Citizen - met/michael/sevo/tfios/gent
Citizen - met/michael/sevo/tfios/gent
Citizen - met/micheal/sevo/tfios/gent

Godfather - met/michael/sevo/tfios - murat
Random Mafia - met/tfios/michael/sevo - murat
Random Mafia - met/tfios/michael/sevo - murat

Arsonist - Olly

Remote Possibility 3: Swords!Mafia, Murat!Town, Olly!Arso
Town Support - elusive
Town Killing - wolf
Random Town - purple
Random Town - murat
Random Town - Chubby
Citizen - met/michael/sevo/tfios
Citizen - met/michael/sevo/tfios
Citizen - met/micheal/sevo/tfios

Godfather - met/michael/sevo/tfios - gent/swords
Random Mafia - met/michael/sevo/tfios - gent/swords
Random Mafia - met/michael/sevo/tfios - gent/swords

Arsonist - olly
It basically comes down to this: murat and gent are opposites of each other due to the nature of their rivalry, if murat and gent are both town then we lose. I would bet my whole family on murat and gent being opposites. Even then tfios could be a surprise mafia member. Even then, even if both gent and tfios are town, there is no possible way that Arso would know thus there is no fucking way in hell Arso ignites tonight.
Swordsworth wrote:
ElusiveBelle wrote:I'm a bit busy right now so I'll get back to Purple's chaos theory when I can, although I'm going to stick with the facts for now and the known arso suspects. From my PoV lynching one of them, which doesn't include Olly, would be better to dwindle down my job to safely defuse the situation regardless.

Every iteration of this statement or its derivatives gives a loved one osteoporosis and denies competitive online matchmaking.

Mate, olly!arso makes about as much sense as Elusive!arso or Wolf!arso.
ElusiveBelle wrote:I'm a bit busy right now so I'll get back to Purple's chaos theory when I can, although I'm going to stick with the facts for now and the known arso suspects. From my PoV lynching one of them, which doesn't include Olly, would be better to dwindle down my job to safely defuse the situation regardless.

It's not a chaos theory, you already agree with everything that I need you to in order for the plan to work in 100% effect. Do you agree that murat is town? Yes. Do you agree that Cow knows Swords and/or Olly's alignment? Yes. That is it. If you agree with those two statements then Town cannot lose with this plan, it is impossible.

[/spoiler]
And thats where I stopped reading

Is it just more bickering or do I have to read, I'm on mobile so just be happy I spoilered that alright.
I'm just a memer, I meme my life away... away...

frop418 wrote:
FMLSheWas12 wrote:
frop418 wrote:What do you guys find scummy about Sevo?

What do you think of S0me0ne's opinion on Sevo?

He pointed a lot of interesting points.


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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby PurpleSidewalk1 » Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:31 pm

@wolf you don't have to read it unless you want to gamesolve. I have WCS BCS at top for people who don't like game solving.
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby TheWolfBuddy » Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:42 pm

Wait whos arso

Is it swords cuz that makes more sense than olly or met
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frop418 wrote:
FMLSheWas12 wrote:
frop418 wrote:What do you guys find scummy about Sevo?

What do you think of S0me0ne's opinion on Sevo?

He pointed a lot of interesting points.


Understood is my #1 policy vig forever.
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby TheWolfBuddy » Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:44 pm

/vote swords

Since swords v olly is TvS, I'm fine with this since arso!olly deserves the win anyway and olly is most likely town
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frop418 wrote:
FMLSheWas12 wrote:
frop418 wrote:What do you guys find scummy about Sevo?

What do you think of S0me0ne's opinion on Sevo?

He pointed a lot of interesting points.


Understood is my #1 policy vig forever.
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby TheWolfBuddy » Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:45 pm

I'm going to shit on chubby postgame if he's town
I'm just a memer, I meme my life away... away...

frop418 wrote:
FMLSheWas12 wrote:
frop418 wrote:What do you guys find scummy about Sevo?

What do you think of S0me0ne's opinion on Sevo?

He pointed a lot of interesting points.


Understood is my #1 policy vig forever.
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby ElusiveBelle » Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:01 pm

We have just under 24 hours left, however I want purple to elaborate more on their plan.

I already asked Chubby, but I want everyone else to cover. How confident is everyone that at least one mafia is doused? We have three citizen slots open, four if you include RT and don't believe Murat or Purple. The insinuation that all doused are town leads that all those that aren't are by default scum but Sev and Met are very widely town read. Discuss quickly
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby TheWolfBuddy » Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:15 pm

I mean chubby and gent are doused so if swords is mafia not arso we have the scumteam down
I'm just a memer, I meme my life away... away...

frop418 wrote:
FMLSheWas12 wrote:
frop418 wrote:What do you guys find scummy about Sevo?

What do you think of S0me0ne's opinion on Sevo?

He pointed a lot of interesting points.


Understood is my #1 policy vig forever.
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby tfiosforevah » Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:58 am

At this point I believe our best bet to lynch Olly. Whatever he flips will help narrow us down. If people want me to change this later I will.
/vote Olly
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby MichaelgRook » Fri Apr 14, 2017 6:53 am

I suppose if we lynch someone who isn't doused, arso might ignite, and since most of the doused are being suspected as scum, it wouldn't be a good way to narrow down the role list, but it would be an effective way. I'll give the olly wagon that much credit, but I still have too many doubts to vote for him.

I'm still waiting for the best case for a lynch. What is the case against gent, other than he's giving himself up .
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby Sevohaseth » Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:32 am

ElusiveBelle wrote:I already asked Chubby, but I want everyone else to cover. How confident is everyone that at least one mafia is doused? We have three citizen slots open, four if you include RT and don't believe Murat or Purple. The insinuation that all doused are town leads that all those that aren't are by default scum but Sev and Met are very widely town read. Discuss quickly

From my POV, it's very unlikely there isn't at least one mafia doused. These are the cit claims (not sure if all have actually claimed, but assuming non-claims are cit claims): Sevo, Michael, Met, ChubbyMooshroom, TrueGent, tfiosforevah

The only possible way for no mafia to be doused is if Michael and Met are both scum and the rest are town taking up the one RT slot, which would also make two of murat/Swords/Olly scum. Swords is not on a maf team with pretty much anyone else in that list except maybe Michael (maybe Met but doubtful), so Swords would have to arso or town (which seems unlikely given Cow).

I mentioned before that this is a possible scenario, but it seems very unlikely. Cow must've saw Swords visit which makes Swords mafia (if you don't understand why just ask or look at Sword's ISO for today). If Cow didn't see Swords visit then fuck Cow. Arso would be within {Met, Olly} and last two maf within {Michael, Gent, Chubby, tfios, Met(unlikely)} which has a lot of douses in it.

Pretty positive this is the best lynch. Good chance he's scum, helps with PoE and weakens the Arso ignite regardless of flip.
/vote Gent
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby ElusiveBelle » Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:43 am

The last of Sev's post is what I was getting at. Gent is the safest lynch to weaken the blow if an arson ignites. However if we are wrong and they're town and so is Chubby and Tfios then we lose.

We need one mafia to be taken out or stop their kill tonight which will be up to me and Purple depending on Gents flip
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby ElusiveBelle » Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:40 am

/vote Gent
Seems good, flip will PoE the end
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Re: Episode XII | Day 5 [Moove Over]

Postby MichaelgRook » Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:54 am

Alright, I like the gent lynch plan. Would be nice to see the vc though.

/vote Truegent
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