[Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Game Over [Town wins!]

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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby deathghost12 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 7:26 pm

We have time to interigate him before we lynch anybody so I would like to use it.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby NoodleLick » Fri Oct 14, 2016 7:29 pm

/unvote

If he is actually doctor, that won't really harm us. It can confirm some roles and if we actually have a Marshall we still have a TP.
Favourite Roles: Jailor, Spy, Lookout, Vampire Hunter, Forger, Consigliere, Witch and Jester
Hated Roles: Veteran, Mayor, Escort, Retributionist, Mafioso, Disguiser, Vampire and Serial Killer

FM Record: 3-0-0
Spoiler: NFM30: Veteran|Alive|Win
NFM32: Lookout|Dead|Win
NFM33: Marshal|Alive|Win
NFM34: Doesn't Exist

Names on ToS: Nightbeat and Nootbeat (Only on Ranked)

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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby deathghost12 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 7:38 pm

I would agree with you Noodlelick but its better to use as much discussion time as possible before we hang shultz or anybody else for that matter. Ill be heading off the forum for a while so posts will likely not be a thing for a day. Bye. :)
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby NoodleLick » Fri Oct 14, 2016 7:41 pm

HalkInHunt wrote:
NoodleLick wrote:/unvote

If he is actually doctor, that won't really harm us. It can confirm some roles and if we actually have a Marshall we still have a TP.

are you suggesting no lynch?


No, I'm not, I'm unvoting him since he's close to majority and we need him to defend himself
Favourite Roles: Jailor, Spy, Lookout, Vampire Hunter, Forger, Consigliere, Witch and Jester
Hated Roles: Veteran, Mayor, Escort, Retributionist, Mafioso, Disguiser, Vampire and Serial Killer

FM Record: 3-0-0
Spoiler: NFM30: Veteran|Alive|Win
NFM32: Lookout|Dead|Win
NFM33: Marshal|Alive|Win
NFM34: Doesn't Exist

Names on ToS: Nightbeat and Nootbeat (Only on Ranked)

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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby mihail66 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 8:46 pm

HalkInHunt wrote:/Unvote
/Vote Schultz128
i have read your D4 ISO right now

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I mean shouldnt you read the entire game before doing anything else as replacement?

HalkInHunt wrote:sup i am back here
i trust eel, lijik and NoodleLick so far, lynching TheForgot like is good idea
Marshal is useless right now, he can't protect attack while doc ca,n lynching TheForgot gives use the same affect as lynching citizen, except that if he flips green we know exactly who to blame and lynch.

Actually marshal can protect someone, I doubt 2 mafia will do the kill.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby TheForgot3n1 » Fri Oct 14, 2016 9:13 pm

Come on guys... L-1 is incredibly dangerous. I don't quite understand why death didnt hammer that if he is scum
I guess it depends on Schultz.

But can you please wait til tomorrow like 14:00 before lynching? I need just some more time for sleep.
Forum mafia record:
Spoiler: NFM 5 - Consiglierre - LAST MAN STANDING! (Win)
NFM 23 - Witch - Salt to the RNG gods (Loss)
Game 10E - Citizen - first replace ever, first death ever (Loss)
NFM 24 - Medium - most cancerous game ever (Loss)
NFM 28 - Bodyguard - dunked Varanoose (much love man <3) (Win)
NFM 30 - Marshal - the coincidences (Win)
Episode XI - ReRolled (thanks James2...)
NFM 33 - Ongoing
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby eeelneekey » Fri Oct 14, 2016 10:05 pm

Just got back and I'm not liking this sudden almost-hammer on Forgotten. It's fine to pressure vote but keep it well below L-1, jeez. Let's get both Forgotten and Schultz to argue their case before we do anything hasty.

And yeah, Halk, please read the entire thread when you get time. That goes for all replacements.

Now let me go sleep off this night out k bye
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby mihail66 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:21 am

eeelneekey wrote:Just got back and I'm not liking this sudden almost-hammer on Forgotten. It's fine to pressure vote but keep it well below L-1, jeez. Let's get both Forgotten and Schultz to argue their case before we do anything hasty.

And yeah, Halk, please read the entire thread when you get time. That goes for all replacements.

Now let me go sleep off this night out k bye

The scariest thing is that at least 1 voter is town.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby TheForgot3n1 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 7:43 am

First off, thank you to Death for not hammering. I think it might confirm Death in the end that he didn't hammer the lynch on Schultz when it was L-1. I'm not entirely sure whom to put in the town block after that to be honest. I guess maybe eeeln or tilted is mafia after all. Risky situation that paid of.

/vote lijik

Spoiler: Now eeeln told me to make my case as to the schultz vs theforgot3n1, but that's not my case. My conclusion is that lijik is consort. If you take everything in context it is the most likely. I can also see myself in lijik, my scumplay that is. Just because she is good at formulating herself and defending herself when needed, does not make her town. Day1 lijik was a very convincing "town" defense because she is generally good at that. I was the same when I played consig, as well as witch (even though I wasn't really pushed on that game). I wrote some paragraf defending my reasoning, and literally got away with fakeclaiming transported just because I seemed town. lijik is a good player, she knows how to defend herself to seem town. Schultz does not, and that has led to him constantly being in the lynchpools. If you remember the pool I suggested day one (Lijik/Silver/Schultz). The wagon went from silver -> ljiik -> schultz -> silver. There was always one maf in that pool but we arrived of course at the players that were worse at defending themselves, who are town.

Consort also makes sense when we look at the role list. I've been a hidden marshal ever since TopKek claimed Doctor (which was day 2, so hidden in 2 nights thereafter). If I was cleaned by janitor during ANY of those following nights, it would have been MASSIVE for mafia. But they never cleaned me? Even after the "prediction" thing at day3 which I truly think that Mafia should have been suspicious of, with the help of an Agent being on reasonable targets (James2 night1 or lijik night 2) or a Consiglierre simply scouting me since I've been pretty vocal and townread the whole game, that should have been enough for them to snipe me and essentially win the game. But likely that never happened, because they don't have an agent or consig [CLARIFICATION: if there is no agent/consig, then Consort is confirmed].

Another thing with lijik is her passive plays. She was active when she was being scumread, but anytime after that has had minimal scumhunting from her. She's riding on her townread doing essentially nothing. She never considered lynching Schultz. No afterthought really, no push on Cmitc1, no serious read list. Look at what town!lijik did in NFM 28. So much more.

Things make more sense when you flip the script and truly consider lijik being town. The night kill was skipped night 3. That is a fact. If escort!lijik roleblocked any mafia we would have a free lynch without a kill at night, and if escort!lijik roleblocked a target that was too townread (myself, eeeln, varanus or mihail) for any reason, then it would probably fail as well. There were a LOT of factors going right for the mislynch to go this well with an Escort. Also, lijik being escort would mean that mafia!Schultz KNOWS there is a hiding RT somewhere. Why then would he claim if they are planning to do a "skip-night hope escort picks bad target" thing if Schultz is going to be CC'd as well? It just doesn't fall into place when you see it that way. The fact that lijik roleblocked Schultz last night is also a scummy move, schultz doing the kill is really unlikely (and conveniently it is roleblocking a Doctor claim). -.-

Schultz128 wrote:I mean, I wasn't the only one casting doubt at cmitc. People were literally casting doubt before I made my post.

Given the current stances of previous claims and actions, I'm debating whether or not it would be safe to claim my role.


Schultz was onto the cmitc1 wagon quite early. He jumped on it in a non-apologetic way. It's a town-ping since a scum wouldn't be so sure on what he would claim, let alone knowing whether cmitc1 is actually evil.

Schultz128 wrote:cmitc can easily be bullshitting about being Medium. What he said about Taz and who he investigated doesn't exactly coincide well. The only reason I can think of as to why cmitc wasn't killed Night 2 was in case of: Mafia predicted James flipping Vig and shooting cmitc, a TP would be on cmitc, or a Lookout would be on cmitc.


First I could find on it.

I also see some associations between TopKek and Tates and Schultz, in the way they play.

Topkek claimed Doctor in a very confident and was sure not to be CC'd. Why? Because he was the actual doctor. This is the reason I didn't CC him at the time. Schultz, did the same thing now. He CC'd cmitc1 at the end of day 3. Makes no sense, when he is supposed to get counterclaimed right after that. It was just as blatant of a CC as TopKek was. The only way it would make sense for scum!Schultz to CC like that, was if Mafia were planning to clean and kill me the following night! I was so sure of this, contemplating suicide IRL because of sick benefits that would give to mafia, but it never happened "because lijik roleblocked the killing mafia!!!" Which isn't true now. That goes back to Schultz truly being town.

Tates made ridiculous defenses. He made too crazy assumptions for it to work, which on a first glance seems like a really desperate mafia trying to get out. But what was it in actuality? Town efforts. Schultz has done the same

Schultz128 wrote:I don't expect you to believe me over lijik, because I believe that Topkek was not Doctor, based on his following night action.

Why would he not self heal the night right after he hardclaimed Doctor? That seems like the proper choice to make.

I believe that I am Town Protective, you are Random Town Marshal, and lijik is Random Town Escort or Consort.


Schultz128 wrote:I agree with eeeln. Why risk lynching one of the three possible PRs? You have a 2/3 chance of lynching a PR instead of scum. Tates is 100% the safer lynch.

I am going to say this again: We don't know if Topkek was actually Doctor or not.

We've seen this before, newbies as Citizen will claim a PR when suspicion and lynch votes start flying their way hard.

Is Topkek likely to be Doctor? Yes. But does that mean he was Doctor 100% no questions asked? No.


What is the actual chance of this? Really, really low. I see Schultz here trying to come into peace with three facts: He believe lijik is town, he believes theforgot3n1 is town, and he knows he is town himself. That's why he makes crazy conclusions that don't really seem as crazy to him. Just like Tates did, when he was a roleblocked citizen with no kills from mafia. It's an impossible situations to him, because he cannot see me or lijik being scum at that moment. scum!Schultz would easily pick a target to scumread, or his mafia buddies would tell him to suspect someone.

There is more damning behavior from lijik, not only the inactivity/non-contribution. She also stayed very neutral on me and schultz. Town!lijik would make sense of me vs schultz, would probably push one of us as scum in an effort to solve the game. She wouldn't just go tunnel on Tates and ignore anything else going on. But if you look at lijik's opinions on Schultz and me, there's barely anything, and everything is about lynching Tates.

lijik wrote:Forgotten, protect eeeln. Shultz, protect me.

This way, the mafia can't attack me. Attacking me will disprove Schultz, leading to their lynch.

Eeeln, on the other hand, could still be attacked if the mafia sends in two people and Forgotten scares off only one. This will force them to neutralize a role that they could've used.

Noodle, of course, will use WIFOM.
I will roleblock one of the citizen claims.

This will force the mafia to kill a citizen, leading to an easier POE later on.

Unless someone suggests something better later on, I believe we should use this plan.


Already suggests ending day.

lijik wrote:Also, Forgotten for all we know you're lying. We're lynching Tates today. We'll decide which of you is lying tomorrow. For now, it's better to Lynch almost confirmed scum. Worst case scenario they flip citizen. Worst case scenario for lynching Schultz is they flip doctor.


No opinion on schultz and I? Just pushing for the lynch that won't tell us anything? town!lijik would realize the benefits of lynching Schultz, to confirm us both, and would also realize how her claim might be under serious scrutiny if Tates had flipped town. She is just so blatantly unaware of things. This just doesn't work for me when she's a good player in general. It is too passive and she even lurks sometimes.

If you look at things without taking into account how they have defended themselves, lijik has many more actions with benefits for scum than Schultz. Except the veteran roleblock, I still don't understand that but I don't think it confirms her either. Just like the blackmail thing. Could easily be a fake claim and might just end up being exactly that. Could be mafia thinking noodle is actually vigi, or setting up the escort claim (which wasn't asked for in day2).

I believe this is the solution to the PR lynch. Please bounce back and forth whatever you think is unlikely of what is above. Otherwise please don't put ANYONE above L-3, let alone L-2. We HAVE to get this lynch right. We need another mislynch going into the Cit pools.

Few last things. One, I might be slightly biased looking for a lynch target that isn't the obvious. I have to admit it's a bit more "fun", but I am not bullshitting with any of the points I've brought to the table. Two if you've just skimmed through this (since it is fairly long) write that please. Three, it is really important to recognize that there are 3 out of 9 players here that are scum. This means scum will try to push us into a mislynch. They'll do this by agreeing with some parts, some other saying they're less likely, maybe dismissing the push on a whole, or going really hard for us to think it is a "too quick wagon". I'm not saying I can predict that, but take it into account when you read stuff. Making your own understanding of this when the density of coordinated mafia is this high, is really important.
Forum mafia record:
Spoiler: NFM 5 - Consiglierre - LAST MAN STANDING! (Win)
NFM 23 - Witch - Salt to the RNG gods (Loss)
Game 10E - Citizen - first replace ever, first death ever (Loss)
NFM 24 - Medium - most cancerous game ever (Loss)
NFM 28 - Bodyguard - dunked Varanoose (much love man <3) (Win)
NFM 30 - Marshal - the coincidences (Win)
Episode XI - ReRolled (thanks James2...)
NFM 33 - Ongoing
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby TheForgot3n1 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 7:45 am

One more thing! If lijik is escort, then I don't see why mafia wouldn't kill me. I was pushing Schultz very hard, and most people never doubted lijik for a second. They could either clean+kill lijik or just kill me, since Schultz "is getting lynched anyway". I am also very active, which is bad for scum. But no, I didn't die, lijik didn't die, because as lijik said day4 it's good to keep the PR's alive so we can mislynch Schultz. Basically, it makes more sense that mafia would play the way they have now if lijik is consort.
Forum mafia record:
Spoiler: NFM 5 - Consiglierre - LAST MAN STANDING! (Win)
NFM 23 - Witch - Salt to the RNG gods (Loss)
Game 10E - Citizen - first replace ever, first death ever (Loss)
NFM 24 - Medium - most cancerous game ever (Loss)
NFM 28 - Bodyguard - dunked Varanoose (much love man <3) (Win)
NFM 30 - Marshal - the coincidences (Win)
Episode XI - ReRolled (thanks James2...)
NFM 33 - Ongoing
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby TheForgot3n1 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:36 am

HalkInHunt wrote:TheForgot can i get your n3 protect?


Why should I give my night action to scum? Nice try though. Regarding jakob being blackmailed and it being a noobish mistake:



Basically I don't see, especially for a scumteam that just skipped their night kill, how they wouldn't know they should not randomly blackmail.
Forum mafia record:
Spoiler: NFM 5 - Consiglierre - LAST MAN STANDING! (Win)
NFM 23 - Witch - Salt to the RNG gods (Loss)
Game 10E - Citizen - first replace ever, first death ever (Loss)
NFM 24 - Medium - most cancerous game ever (Loss)
NFM 28 - Bodyguard - dunked Varanoose (much love man <3) (Win)
NFM 30 - Marshal - the coincidences (Win)
Episode XI - ReRolled (thanks James2...)
NFM 33 - Ongoing
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby TheForgot3n1 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:40 am

HalkInHunt wrote:
TheForgot3n1 wrote:Night 3: protected lijik (I was praying for a scenario where mafia actually HADN'T checked me, and would go for the logical kill on lijik [hopefully without cleaning], schultz would be expected to WIFOM his way out).

Did anyone even thought about that maf attacked lijik without cleaning because he already claim and The Forgot just screw them off?
this seems to make way more sense then mafia was afk


No, this isn't the case.

You will only be informed if you scare away a role who had killing intentions.


and I wasn't informed, so I didn't scare away a mafia killing.

HalkInHunt wrote:i already found your night action so whatever


Sorry, thought you meant night 4, the last night.
Forum mafia record:
Spoiler: NFM 5 - Consiglierre - LAST MAN STANDING! (Win)
NFM 23 - Witch - Salt to the RNG gods (Loss)
Game 10E - Citizen - first replace ever, first death ever (Loss)
NFM 24 - Medium - most cancerous game ever (Loss)
NFM 28 - Bodyguard - dunked Varanoose (much love man <3) (Win)
NFM 30 - Marshal - the coincidences (Win)
Episode XI - ReRolled (thanks James2...)
NFM 33 - Ongoing
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby lijik » Sat Oct 15, 2016 9:07 am

You know, a mafia skipping a night kill actually was a very good move for them I'm now realizing. Not only do they get a mislynched citizen, they also get a mislynched escort. The only thing that confuses me with their lack of a night kill is what if I had actually roleblocked one of them? Then the whole thing would've been pointless and would leave them one member down without a mislynch. It just seems very high risk for them to do.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby mihail66 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 9:28 am

I want to say that the "what lijik did in NFM 28" argument was and is still a BS in my eyes. However the other arguments Theforgotten made are pretty convincing. But he suggests both lijik and schultz are scum.
Well then we have a missing PR
TI-killed
TP-killed(90% possibility)
TK-claimed
RT-Theforgotten/schultz/lijik
RT-Theforgotten/schultz/lijik
So either RAmcius was a PR(which is eh...) or a PR has not claimed yet(which is eh...)

On the other hand lijik and schultz make no effort to present any defence whatsover, except: Theforgotten is scum.
So we have heared why anyone else wants to lynch this or this player, now lets hear: What stops you from lynching schultz(except the doc claim) or forgotten(except the Marshal claim).

(Also please HalkInHunt can you make research before posting, we all make mistakes but this is getting out of hand)
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby TheForgot3n1 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 9:39 am

No, I am not suggesting Schultz is scum. Just lijik.
Forum mafia record:
Spoiler: NFM 5 - Consiglierre - LAST MAN STANDING! (Win)
NFM 23 - Witch - Salt to the RNG gods (Loss)
Game 10E - Citizen - first replace ever, first death ever (Loss)
NFM 24 - Medium - most cancerous game ever (Loss)
NFM 28 - Bodyguard - dunked Varanoose (much love man <3) (Win)
NFM 30 - Marshal - the coincidences (Win)
Episode XI - ReRolled (thanks James2...)
NFM 33 - Ongoing
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby lijik » Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:17 am

TheForgot3n1 wrote:First off, thank you to Death for not hammering. I think it might confirm Death in the end that he didn't hammer the lynch on Schultz when it was L-1. I'm not entirely sure whom to put in the town block after that to be honest. I guess maybe eeeln or tilted is mafia after all. Risky situation that paid of.

/vote lijik

Spoiler: Now eeeln told me to make my case as to the schultz vs theforgot3n1, but that's not my case. My conclusion is that lijik is consort. If you take everything in context it is the most likely. I can also see myself in lijik, my scumplay that is. Just because she is good at formulating herself and defending herself when needed, does not make her town. Day1 lijik was a very convincing "town" defense because she is generally good at that. I was the same when I played consig, as well as witch (even though I wasn't really pushed on that game). I wrote some paragraf defending my reasoning, and literally got away with fakeclaiming transported just because I seemed town. lijik is a good player, she knows how to defend herself to seem town. Schultz does not, and that has led to him constantly being in the lynchpools. If you remember the pool I suggested day one (Lijik/Silver/Schultz). The wagon went from silver -> ljiik -> schultz -> silver. There was always one maf in that pool but we arrived of course at the players that were worse at defending themselves, who are town.

Consort also makes sense when we look at the role list. I've been a hidden marshal ever since TopKek claimed Doctor (which was day 2, so hidden in 2 nights thereafter). If I was cleaned by janitor during ANY of those following nights, it would have been MASSIVE for mafia. But they never cleaned me? Even after the "prediction" thing at day3 which I truly think that Mafia should have been suspicious of, with the help of an Agent being on reasonable targets (James2 night1 or lijik night 2) or a Consiglierre simply scouting me since I've been pretty vocal and townread the whole game, that should have been enough for them to snipe me and essentially win the game. But likely that never happened, because they don't have an agent or consig [CLARIFICATION: if there is no agent/consig, then Consort is confirmed].

Another thing with lijik is her passive plays. She was active when she was being scumread, but anytime after that has had minimal scumhunting from her. She's riding on her townread doing essentially nothing. She never considered lynching Schultz. No afterthought really, no push on Cmitc1, no serious read list. Look at what town!lijik did in NFM 28. So much more.

Things make more sense when you flip the script and truly consider lijik being town. The night kill was skipped night 3. That is a fact. If escort!lijik roleblocked any mafia we would have a free lynch without a kill at night, and if escort!lijik roleblocked a target that was too townread (myself, eeeln, varanus or mihail) for any reason, then it would probably fail as well. There were a LOT of factors going right for the mislynch to go this well with an Escort. Also, lijik being escort would mean that mafia!Schultz KNOWS there is a hiding RT somewhere. Why then would he claim if they are planning to do a "skip-night hope escort picks bad target" thing if Schultz is going to be CC'd as well? It just doesn't fall into place when you see it that way. The fact that lijik roleblocked Schultz last night is also a scummy move, schultz doing the kill is really unlikely (and conveniently it is roleblocking a Doctor claim). -.-

Schultz128 wrote:I mean, I wasn't the only one casting doubt at cmitc. People were literally casting doubt before I made my post.

Given the current stances of previous claims and actions, I'm debating whether or not it would be safe to claim my role.


Schultz was onto the cmitc1 wagon quite early. He jumped on it in a non-apologetic way. It's a town-ping since a scum wouldn't be so sure on what he would claim, let alone knowing whether cmitc1 is actually evil.

Schultz128 wrote:cmitc can easily be bullshitting about being Medium. What he said about Taz and who he investigated doesn't exactly coincide well. The only reason I can think of as to why cmitc wasn't killed Night 2 was in case of: Mafia predicted James flipping Vig and shooting cmitc, a TP would be on cmitc, or a Lookout would be on cmitc.


First I could find on it.

I also see some associations between TopKek and Tates and Schultz, in the way they play.

Topkek claimed Doctor in a very confident and was sure not to be CC'd. Why? Because he was the actual doctor. This is the reason I didn't CC him at the time. Schultz, did the same thing now. He CC'd cmitc1 at the end of day 3. Makes no sense, when he is supposed to get counterclaimed right after that. It was just as blatant of a CC as TopKek was. The only way it would make sense for scum!Schultz to CC like that, was if Mafia were planning to clean and kill me the following night! I was so sure of this, contemplating suicide IRL because of sick benefits that would give to mafia, but it never happened "because lijik roleblocked the killing mafia!!!" Which isn't true now. That goes back to Schultz truly being town.

Tates made ridiculous defenses. He made too crazy assumptions for it to work, which on a first glance seems like a really desperate mafia trying to get out. But what was it in actuality? Town efforts. Schultz has done the same

Schultz128 wrote:I don't expect you to believe me over lijik, because I believe that Topkek was not Doctor, based on his following night action.

Why would he not self heal the night right after he hardclaimed Doctor? That seems like the proper choice to make.

I believe that I am Town Protective, you are Random Town Marshal, and lijik is Random Town Escort or Consort.


Schultz128 wrote:I agree with eeeln. Why risk lynching one of the three possible PRs? You have a 2/3 chance of lynching a PR instead of scum. Tates is 100% the safer lynch.

I am going to say this again: We don't know if Topkek was actually Doctor or not.

We've seen this before, newbies as Citizen will claim a PR when suspicion and lynch votes start flying their way hard.

Is Topkek likely to be Doctor? Yes. But does that mean he was Doctor 100% no questions asked? No.


What is the actual chance of this? Really, really low. I see Schultz here trying to come into peace with three facts: He believe lijik is town, he believes theforgot3n1 is town, and he knows he is town himself. That's why he makes crazy conclusions that don't really seem as crazy to him. Just like Tates did, when he was a roleblocked citizen with no kills from mafia. It's an impossible situations to him, because he cannot see me or lijik being scum at that moment. scum!Schultz would easily pick a target to scumread, or his mafia buddies would tell him to suspect someone.

There is more damning behavior from lijik, not only the inactivity/non-contribution. She also stayed very neutral on me and schultz. Town!lijik would make sense of me vs schultz, would probably push one of us as scum in an effort to solve the game. She wouldn't just go tunnel on Tates and ignore anything else going on. But if you look at lijik's opinions on Schultz and me, there's barely anything, and everything is about lynching Tates.

lijik wrote:Forgotten, protect eeeln. Shultz, protect me.

This way, the mafia can't attack me. Attacking me will disprove Schultz, leading to their lynch.

Eeeln, on the other hand, could still be attacked if the mafia sends in two people and Forgotten scares off only one. This will force them to neutralize a role that they could've used.

Noodle, of course, will use WIFOM.
I will roleblock one of the citizen claims.

This will force the mafia to kill a citizen, leading to an easier POE later on.

Unless someone suggests something better later on, I believe we should use this plan.


Already suggests ending day.

lijik wrote:Also, Forgotten for all we know you're lying. We're lynching Tates today. We'll decide which of you is lying tomorrow. For now, it's better to Lynch almost confirmed scum. Worst case scenario they flip citizen. Worst case scenario for lynching Schultz is they flip doctor.


No opinion on schultz and I? Just pushing for the lynch that won't tell us anything? town!lijik would realize the benefits of lynching Schultz, to confirm us both, and would also realize how her claim might be under serious scrutiny if Tates had flipped town. She is just so blatantly unaware of things. This just doesn't work for me when she's a good player in general. It is too passive and she even lurks sometimes.

If you look at things without taking into account how they have defended themselves, lijik has many more actions with benefits for scum than Schultz. Except the veteran roleblock, I still don't understand that but I don't think it confirms her either. Just like the blackmail thing. Could easily be a fake claim and might just end up being exactly that. Could be mafia thinking noodle is actually vigi, or setting up the escort claim (which wasn't asked for in day2).

I believe this is the solution to the PR lynch. Please bounce back and forth whatever you think is unlikely of what is above. Otherwise please don't put ANYONE above L-3, let alone L-2. We HAVE to get this lynch right. We need another mislynch going into the Cit pools.

Few last things. One, I might be slightly biased looking for a lynch target that isn't the obvious. I have to admit it's a bit more "fun", but I am not bullshitting with any of the points I've brought to the table. Two if you've just skimmed through this (since it is fairly long) write that please. Three, it is really important to recognize that there are 3 out of 9 players here that are scum. This means scum will try to push us into a mislynch. They'll do this by agreeing with some parts, some other saying they're less likely, maybe dismissing the push on a whole, or going really hard for us to think it is a "too quick wagon". I'm not saying I can predict that, but take it into account when you read stuff. Making your own understanding of this when the density of coordinated mafia is this high, is really important.


Basically what I'm seeing with this is that I'm too good of a player to act like this. Keep in mind, I've only completed one game. I was very excited to be in that which led to me trying to contribute as much as possible. Now that I know what this is like, I'm not as excited about. I still enjoy it, but that initial excitement for it has worn off.

Another thing, I was a citizen that game. All I could do was contribute. As I read from citizen guide, if you're a citizen you should be as active as possible and call attention to yourself so you get killed by the mafia rather than a pr. This game, I was an escort. I didn't want to draw attention to myself from the mafia. I've unintentionally kept some of that attitude even though I already claimed.

When you were attacking Shultz day 4, I stayed neutral on it because I wanted to address it today. You clearly wanted to Lynch Shultz, which I didn't want, mainly for the fact that it was a free "heal" and we had an almost confirmed scum. I wouldn't have stayed neutral on it except that I wanted to make sure that neither of your protections became worthless. If I was clearly suspicious of one of you, for example Shultz, then mafia could've just gone ahead and killed me if I was right and they thought Shultz would get lynched, since it would be the same outcome but with one less pr.

So, now that my poor defence is out there, I will now put on my tin foil hat.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby lijik » Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:26 am

Oh, also, I forgot I was going to remove my vote until I'm done with my scumhunting.

/unvote
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby Schultz128 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:29 am

/vc

I personally see lijik as a Consort who roleblocked a Townie and made the plan with their mafia buddies to ensure a mislynch. I agree with just about all of Forgot3n's Holy Mother of Trump Walls. Call me a sheep all you want, I'm not blindly following. I agree with Forgot3n's reasons.

/vote lijik.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby lijik » Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:32 am

Schultz128 wrote:/vc

I personally see lijik as a Consort who roleblocked a Townie and made the plan with their mafia buddies to ensure a mislynch. I agree with just about all of Forgot3n's Holy Mother of Trump Walls. Call me a sheep all you want, I'm not blindly following. I agree with Forgot3n's reasons.

/vote lijik.


Vote me up if you want, just don't lynch me until I post my theories.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby eeelneekey » Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:45 am

I can see some logic in Forgotten's wall, and I've considered the same things about lijik. The whole skipping-a-night-kill thing makes much more sense if lijik is scum, and lijik not following their own night plan but instead RBing a PR claim is fishy. In a game where we're had hard and loud scumclaims as PRs, like cmitc who was a pretty damn convincing medium, it's not impossible to believe in Consort!lijik. However, Schultz's sudden bandwagonning reeks of "oooh a wagon on a PR that's not me that I can blame on someone else when it goes wrong".
Waiting for lijik's theories before I make any drastic decisions.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby TheForgot3n1 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 11:40 am

eeelneekey wrote:I can see some logic in Forgotten's wall, and I've considered the same things about lijik. The whole skipping-a-night-kill thing makes much more sense if lijik is scum, and lijik not following their own night plan but instead RBing a PR claim is fishy. In a game where we're had hard and loud scumclaims as PRs, like cmitc who was a pretty damn convincing medium, it's not impossible to believe in Consort!lijik. However, Schultz's sudden bandwagonning reeks of "oooh a wagon on a PR that's not me that I can blame on someone else when it goes wrong".
Waiting for lijik's theories before I make any drastic decisions.


Yeah I know Schultz seems scummy again. But that's what schultz has been ever since day1 essentially. Scummy. I think it's just the way he appears when he plays though, which is something to improve on. Look at this compilation

Schultz128 wrote:Well, that was simple. Do we have anything to discuss yet, or should we just hammer?

/vote RajolAttates.


Schultz128 wrote:But will it give him the message that someone attempted to roleblock him? In ToS, it displays it but I'm not sure about FM.

/vote Topkek.

Since James claims Topkek was immune, my vote stands until we get a defense from Topkek or if James is disproven somehow (AKA Lookout, Doctor, etc.)


Schultz128 wrote:I vote for Plan 1.

/vote James2.


The rest were more motivated, james2 one maybe a bit too.
Forum mafia record:
Spoiler: NFM 5 - Consiglierre - LAST MAN STANDING! (Win)
NFM 23 - Witch - Salt to the RNG gods (Loss)
Game 10E - Citizen - first replace ever, first death ever (Loss)
NFM 24 - Medium - most cancerous game ever (Loss)
NFM 28 - Bodyguard - dunked Varanoose (much love man <3) (Win)
NFM 30 - Marshal - the coincidences (Win)
Episode XI - ReRolled (thanks James2...)
NFM 33 - Ongoing
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby lijik » Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:26 pm

TheForgot3n1 wrote:
eeelneekey wrote:I can see some logic in Forgotten's wall, and I've considered the same things about lijik. The whole skipping-a-night-kill thing makes much more sense if lijik is scum, and lijik not following their own night plan but instead RBing a PR claim is fishy. In a game where we're had hard and loud scumclaims as PRs, like cmitc who was a pretty damn convincing medium, it's not impossible to believe in Consort!lijik. However, Schultz's sudden bandwagonning reeks of "oooh a wagon on a PR that's not me that I can blame on someone else when it goes wrong".
Waiting for lijik's theories before I make any drastic decisions.


Yeah I know Schultz seems scummy again. But that's what schultz has been ever since day1 essentially. Scummy. I think it's just the way he appears when he plays though, which is something to improve on. Look at this compilation

Schultz128 wrote:Well, that was simple. Do we have anything to discuss yet, or should we just hammer?

/vote RajolAttates.


Schultz128 wrote:But will it give him the message that someone attempted to roleblock him? In ToS, it displays it but I'm not sure about FM.

/vote Topkek.

Since James claims Topkek was immune, my vote stands until we get a defense from Topkek or if James is disproven somehow (AKA Lookout, Doctor, etc.)


Schultz128 wrote:I vote for Plan 1.

/vote James2.


The rest were more motivated, james2 one maybe a bit too.


"Schultz always acts scummy, therefore they aren't scum." You focus too much on meta Forgot3n.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby Schultz128 » Sat Oct 15, 2016 2:22 pm

TheForgot3n1 wrote:
eeelneekey wrote:I can see some logic in Forgotten's wall, and I've considered the same things about lijik. The whole skipping-a-night-kill thing makes much more sense if lijik is scum, and lijik not following their own night plan but instead RBing a PR claim is fishy. In a game where we're had hard and loud scumclaims as PRs, like cmitc who was a pretty damn convincing medium, it's not impossible to believe in Consort!lijik. However, Schultz's sudden bandwagonning reeks of "oooh a wagon on a PR that's not me that I can blame on someone else when it goes wrong".
Waiting for lijik's theories before I make any drastic decisions.


Yeah I know Schultz seems scummy again. But that's what schultz has been ever since day1 essentially. Scummy. I think it's just the way he appears when he plays though, which is something to improve on. Look at this compilation

Schultz128 wrote:Well, that was simple. Do we have anything to discuss yet, or should we just hammer?

/vote RajolAttates.


Schultz128 wrote:But will it give him the message that someone attempted to roleblock him? In ToS, it displays it but I'm not sure about FM.

/vote Topkek.

Since James claims Topkek was immune, my vote stands until we get a defense from Topkek or if James is disproven somehow (AKA Lookout, Doctor, etc.)


Schultz128 wrote:I vote for Plan 1.

/vote James2.


The rest were more motivated, james2 one maybe a bit too.


James2 lynch shouldn't be questioned when it came to my motivation. I was FoSing him since Page 2.

eeelneekey wrote:I can see some logic in Forgotten's wall, and I've considered the same things about lijik. The whole skipping-a-night-kill thing makes much more sense if lijik is scum, and lijik not following their own night plan but instead RBing a PR claim is fishy. In a game where we're had hard and loud scumclaims as PRs, like cmitc who was a pretty damn convincing medium, it's not impossible to believe in Consort!lijik. However, Schultz's sudden bandwagonning reeks of "oooh a wagon on a PR that's not me that I can blame on someone else when it goes wrong".
Waiting for lijik's theories before I make any drastic decisions.


Why is it so hard to just fucking agree?! Honestly, I don't need to go remake my fucking reasons and such if they are very much like Forgott3n's. There's a difference between agreement and bandwagoning.
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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby NoodleLick » Sat Oct 15, 2016 2:24 pm

But what if the mafia isn't who we think it is...?
Favourite Roles: Jailor, Spy, Lookout, Vampire Hunter, Forger, Consigliere, Witch and Jester
Hated Roles: Veteran, Mayor, Escort, Retributionist, Mafioso, Disguiser, Vampire and Serial Killer

FM Record: 3-0-0
Spoiler: NFM30: Veteran|Alive|Win
NFM32: Lookout|Dead|Win
NFM33: Marshal|Alive|Win
NFM34: Doesn't Exist

Names on ToS: Nightbeat and Nootbeat (Only on Ranked)

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Re: [Newcomer FM] NFM30 | Day 5 [Dio with it!]

Postby Tiltedcomedian » Sat Oct 15, 2016 2:26 pm

Halk redeemed his slot imo; if you're scum, well done on that.

At this point my top suspects for Mafia, assuming two are claiming Cit, are death and mihail.

NoodleLick wrote:But what if the mafia isn't who we think it is...?


There's always a risk. What are you thinking?
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