[Newcomer FM] NFM18 | Game Over - Mafia Wins

[IamTrusty]

Hey guys. Driving home, was gone for the weekend. Will read when I come home, k?

benched.
HIT THE SHOWER BOY.

[CyndaquilMouse]

I feel like I'll die really quickly xD
Oh well
Dying is fun, I guess?

[pumacatrun2]

I feel like I'll die really quickly xD
Oh well
Dying is fun, I guess?

Well when you say you think you'll die you do become more of a potential target so blame yourself if you do
Again though, WIFOM is real. They might not attack you because of it, or you could be scum acting like unconfident town on purpose

[CyndaquilMouse]

I feel like I'll die really quickly xD
Oh well
Dying is fun, I guess?

Well when you say you think you'll die you do become more of a potential target so blame yourself if you do
Again though, WIFOM is real. They might not attack you because of it, or you could be scum acting like unconfident town on purpose

I have no idea what I'm doing and I never do xD

[teaser303]

I feel like I'll die really quickly xD
Oh well
Dying is fun, I guess?

Well when you say you think you'll die you do become more of a potential target so blame yourself if you do
Again though, WIFOM is real. They might not attack you because of it, or you could be scum acting like unconfident town on purpose

I have no idea what I'm doing and I never do xD

Oh, come on! Gain some more confidence in yourself. You'll never be able to post reads or help town if you're afraid that every action you do will be ridiculed.

[pumacatrun2]

I feel like I'll die really quickly xD
Oh well
Dying is fun, I guess?

Well when you say you think you'll die you do become more of a potential target so blame yourself if you do
Again though, WIFOM is real. They might not attack you because of it, or you could be scum acting like unconfident town on purpose

I have no idea what I'm doing and I never do xD

Oh, come on! Gain some more confidence in yourself. You'll never be able to post reads or help town if you're afraid that every action you do will be ridiculed.

Yeah it's better to play bold and make your opinions well known. If you end up rolling Cit, your voice and your vote are your only weapons, so make it count. That's why I try to always act like a Cit, even when I'm a PR role, to make mafia's reads on my subalignment difficult and make sure I'm contributing as much as I can.

[teaser303]

So, I'm going to post the findings from the stats that I have. First of all, experienced players are killed at a much higher rate than if scum was choosing randomly. If scum chose randomly to kill, the chances of an experienced player dying would be around 25%. However, experienced players are killed over 50% of the time in NFM, with 10 experienced players dying N1 and 7 "newbies" dying right now. (Note: Please don't kill me, scum. I died N1 in my last game and I want to be able to actually participate outside of talking with a medium once.) This means that the doc should probably get on an experienced player, but this creates a WIFOM situation where the mafia knows that the doc will probably be on an experienced player, so they attack a newbie. The doc, anticipating this, gets on a newbie player but the scum anticipates the doc anticipating a newbie player dying and therefore attacks an experienced player, etc, etc.

I also figured out the win rate for town and scum. In 16 games, town won seven times, scum won seven times, the witch won four times, the executioner won one time (in NFM1), and there was a game where nobody won (NFM13). This means that Rick's claims that the town is OP in NFM15 cannot be backed up by the statistics as the scum has won as many times as the town. Any thoughts on this post?

[pumacatrun2]

So, I'm going to post the findings from the stats that I have. First of all, experienced players are killed at a much higher rate than if scum was choosing randomly. If scum chose randomly to kill, the chances of an experienced player dying would be around 25%. However, experienced players are killed over 50% of the time in NFM, with 10 experienced players dying N1 and 7 "newbies" dying right now. (Note: Please don't kill me, scum. I died N1 in my last game and I want to be able to actually participate outside of talking with a medium once.) This means that the doc should probably get on an experienced player, but this creates a WIFOM situation where the mafia knows that the doc will probably be on an experienced player, so they attack a newbie. The doc, anticipating this, gets on a newbie player but the scum anticipates the doc anticipating a newbie player dying and therefore attacks an experienced player, etc, etc.

I also figured out the win rate for town and scum. In 16 games, town won seven times, scum won seven times, the witch won four times, the executioner won one time (in NFM1), and there was a game where nobody won (NFM13). This means that Rick's claims that the town is OP in NFM15 cannot be backed up by the statistics as the scum has won as many times as the town. Any thoughts on this post?

fml the site went down when i hit submit so retyping

That's the sort of ratio I was expecting on experienced/IC kills tbh, if not just a tad higher but close enough. This pretty much reiterates my point that FM is full of mind games, so targeting PR roles shouldn't feel too pressured but should try and make educated decisions on who they protect.

And how does that winrate add up though? 7 + 7 + 1 = 15, presumably the witch and exe wins weren't all solo wins?

But yeah agreed that NFM is pretty well balanced all things considered.

[murat1996]

I think Rick meant on how it can be easy for Town to win when they find the correct people in obvious situations.

[teaser303]

I think Rick meant on how it can be easy for Town to win when they find the correct people in obvious situations.

Yeah, but in NFM15, the investigative roles just played perfectly. Nothing you can do about that.

[elody53]

Hai? ...Is just a talk and learn thing? (Mega noob, no idea what I'm doing)

[pumacatrun2]

2 1/2 hours left, hopefully Spyder can check in by then, if not be ready for tomorrow.

Hai? ...Is just a talk and learn thing? (Mega noob, no idea what I'm doing)

Somewhat, I suggest reading through a previous NFM game a bit (maybe even one that has a few or more of the experienced people playing it it so you can get a little idea of their playstyle or meta for an advantage) during night to get your bearings on how it works properly, but the experienced players and iggy are here to help if you have any specific questions.

[elody53]

alright, thank you.
I'll do that...

[elody53]

Alright, so correct me if I'm wrong, but this is basically rp style ToS???
Only with a different strategy basis.

[pumacatrun2]

Alright, so correct me if I'm wrong, but this is basically rp style ToS???
Only with a different strategy basis.

Yeah, that's a basic description. You still use your night results to help but this takes a lot more emphasis on reading how people are acting, who they're associated with etc.

[elody53]

Okay cool.

[elody53]

Today is a planning, get to know ppl phase?

[murat1996]

Today is a planning, get to know ppl phase?

Why not?

[teaser303]

So here's my premature D1 reads/observations

CyndaquilMouse - Very nervous, but this could be attributed to this being their first FM game. I'm just mostly concerned about Cyndaquil not contributing later in the game due to fear of being looked down upon. Don't worry, we'll seriously consider anything you say. Just don't be nervous and you'll be fine.

teaser303 - I've been trying to talk more than in my previous games, but that's mostly because I'm bored and have nothing else to do on a Sunday.

jakob12341 - I'm getting mixed signals from him. He's acting all jokingly and then all of a sudden he gets super serious when Creature joke votes me. Also, he's used the face in at least half of his posts, so I'm afraid he'll be fluffing later in the game.

Thukk0 - Played with him in NFM15 and he's fun to play with. Logical and good at scumhunting.

TheCheddarCheese - Too inactive to make any observations.

IamTrusty - The only serious thing he said was agreeing to the witched plan, so not enough information to observe.

SpyderCanopus - Please post at least once to check in. He'll probably be replaced soon.

JackoDerp - Also fun to play with. Hasn't said much yet.

elody53 - He's just figuring out what to do right now. Nothing leaning any way about him.

ItsmeCreature - Obvs scum for voting me. He's skeptical of the witched plan, but he gave an explanation of what he likes about it and what he doesn't like about it. Slight town read here.

TheChosenOne095 - Plays slightly scummy, but that's just his playstyle. I like how he tried to galvanize discussion by asking if anyone opposed the witched plan.

pumacatrun2 - He's been leading discussion and generally being pro-town. He's been helping town out a lot, so I have a strong town read on him.

murat1996 - Nothing much here, just commented on the witched plan.

[elody53]

Umm... Agree on witch thing, and pretty much all neutral reads.

[elody53]

@teaser
Also, I'm a she, but I can generally agree with your observations, but I don't really have any idea one way or another.

[elody53]

How does whispering mechanism work here?

[teaser303]

How does whispering mechanism work here?

I believe you PM Iggy with the message and tell her who to give it to.

[murat1996]

Whispers isn't in play I thought

[TheCheddarCheese]

Cyndaquil needs to stop doubting themself. Almost like people are putting pity on them