[Newcomer FM] NFM 5 | So Close (Mafia Wins!)

[teamalex]

About the day chat? Very true. We might have to lynch Swords after all..

Maybe they tried to frame Swords or someone else by not visiting, Santa roleblocks someone, Swords reveals that information and then boom, easy mislynch on the guy who was roleblocked. Just a theory though. Mafia killed Santa tonight. Perhaps they expected him to leave a will, it could be very confusing with witch in play.

I have a theory, but it might be false. It all depends on Swords flip. Let's assume Swords flips Spy and his information is true.
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Mafia has Blackmailer, Consig and whoever kills for mafia. Blackmailer checks Santa to check for protective/investigative roles, since experienced players are popular targets N1. Consig checked Segaco N1, got a result for either Citizen or Witch. Kill on milte? Quite normal.

Like I said before, I expect Cow and Blades to be mafia together after Swords town flip. After they got the result on Segaco, Cow and Blades proceeded to defend Segaco and push Santa for an easy mislynch. Cow voted on Santa for tunneling on Segaco, so did the others. Blades apparently got a NS result on Segaco, which matches together with Mafia visits and also defends Segaco.

Blackmailer gives out information to Segaco, giving orders to him. Segaco controls Santa to someone else(this night the veteran). Blackmailer/Consig himself doesn't visit to frame the roleblocked target.
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tl;dr after Swords flips town Cow and Blades are mafia

I'd like to hear more from Cow. Defend yourself.

[teamalex]

I'm pretty sure Santa was witched this night, but I find it odd that he didn't roleblock Blades.

Why didn't the witch die then?

*sigh*

If you were in that situation, would you have self-hammered, alouvre?

[Segaco]

As for the 2 mafia visits last night: Is it possible that the Witch may have controlled a mafia to visit the same target as another mafia member?

Pretty sure it would have appeared that the mafia visited a person x2

I'm pretty sure Santa was witched this night, but I find it odd that he didn't roleblock Blades.

Why didn't the witch die then?

*sigh*

Don't sigh me, If santa was controlled into visiting the vet, the witch would have died too.

[alouvre]

That's a viable explanation, Alex, but it doesn't explain why Swords suddenly lifted the pressure off of Santa, why he has been evasive, why he has been uncooperative, and why he hasn't been contributing as I'd expect his town self to do.

Yes, I would have definitely self-hammered myself in that situation.

Segaco, a witch only visits who they control.

[TheForgot3n1]

Don't sigh me, If santa was controlled into visiting the vet, the witch would have died too.

Does it work differently in FM? In town of salem Witch only visits Santa, not Segaco as well.

[teamalex]

I understand. The only way we can find out is to lynch Swords today.

[TheForgot3n1]

I mean "the target as well".

[teamalex]

Pretty sure it works like ToS. Witch makes the target visit the Veteran, but they don't visit Veteran themselves.

[alouvre]

Cow is a shot in the dark for me. He has an extremely atypical playstyle and, while I can't elaborate due to ongoing games, you can expect him to be relatively scummy as town — but not always. At the moment I don't quite get the scummiest vibes from him. Blades, I feel is more likely town than anything else.

Also, if Blades is scum, James is most likely not scum with him.

In regards to the witch, I actually just remembered conflicting information. Better to just ask Rock, in case, even if it doesn't really make sense.

Rock, does a witch actually visit both their targets?

[Segaco]

Cow is a shot in the dark for me. He has an extremely atypical playstyle and, while I can't elaborate due to ongoing games, you can expect him to be relatively scummy as town — but not always. At the moment I don't quite get the scummiest vibes from him. Blades, I feel is more likely town than anything else.

Also, if Blades is scum, James is most likely not scum with him.

In regards to the witch, I actually just remembered conflicting information. Better to just ask Rock, in case, even if it doesn't really make sense.

Rock, does a witch actually visit both their targets?

Just asked him in a PM, waiting for a reply.

[teamalex]

Noone claimed witched however. I find it very likely that Santa was witched.

[Segaco]

Well, I find odd that Santa was killed in the first place.

So I think mafia was controlled.

[TheForgot3n1]

Well, I find odd that Santa was killed in the first place.

So I think mafia was controlled.

Why do you find it odd? I actually think that kill has thought behind it. I'm going to go along with Teamalex chain of thought; Swords being town:

If Swords would flip town, then that would instantly confirm Santa as being non-mafia. So, seeing as Town is so hellbent on lynching Spy, killing Santa beforehand would remove a potential semi-confirmed town. Maybe the plan was to kill Santa when swords flipped town last day as well?

If Swords is Mafia, then I don't know what reasoning behind killing Santa would be. He was in the midst of the dirt anyway, and wouldn't be helped by Swords flipping mafia (so a good potential counter-mis-lynch, I guess xD). This strengthens the idea that Swords might be town, unless we assume WIFOM, which doesn't get us that far.

Okay, I know I might seem very defensive of Swords, but I think the reads on swords from everyone has been skewed as fawk. And his role claim has been the one LEAST scummy of them all, everyone dropped the case after Santa's completely null role claim (at that point) but keep going on Swords? I'm pointing manly on you at the moment, Alouvre. You made reads on both Swords and Alex being scum, and did that with such certainty when many, many other players could be denounced the same way.

Two things:
1. I'm seriously considering a mass role claim. Are there any benefits to playing in the dark at the moment?
2. TheCow, Blades, Polyester, Alouvre and James2. I don't feel you've provided clear reasoning as to the lynching of Swords, except Alouvre making skewed reads. Give me your reasoning about the Swords lynch.
(3.) ONLY TO SWORDS. You didn't really vote yesterday, what is your top suspicion, Swords?
(Okay, after a bit of checking your ISO I found Polyester, Lucas, Cow/alex as your three suspicions)

I'm open to lynching Swords IF you manage to convince me. I also realize lynching Santa was stupid when considering what Swords was saying (that Santa was visited) but I did say explicitly that I needed to sleep before /voting santa, so all this business about swords that happened after was out of my control (I really was sleeping, sorry :p).

TO TEAMALEX: Why do you theorize that Segaco is Witch if he was visited (Spy's claim)?

[teamalex]

I think Mafia has consig and they found him already N1, I explained this in one of my posts.

[TheForgot3n1]

Oh yeah Mafia can visit Witch, dunno what I was writing, I still find Segaco being witch slightly... random?

Mafia has Blackmailer, Consig and whoever kills for mafia. Blackmailer checks Santa to check for protective/investigative roles, since experienced players are popular targets N1. Consig checked Segaco N1, got a result for either Citizen or Witch. Kill on milte? Quite normal.

Like I said before, I expect Cow and Blades to be mafia together after Swords town flip. After they got the result on Segaco, Cow and Blades proceeded to defend Segaco and push Santa for an easy mislynch. Cow voted on Santa for tunneling on Segaco, so did the others. Blades apparently got a NS result on Segaco, which matches together with Mafia visits and also defends Segaco.

Blackmailer gives out information to Segaco, giving orders to him. Segaco controls Santa to someone else(this night the veteran). Blackmailer/Consig himself doesn't visit to frame the roleblocked target.

First in the story you theorize that Segaco turns out being Citizen OR witch, but then you assume that Segaco is witch in the next line of reasoning? Do you know something we don't?`

And Segaco, I still think you're acting badly for being town, might be the inactiveness or something else stopping you, but please answer to what TeamAlex is saying as soon as possible. Same with Cow and Blades, what do you guys think of this reasoning? (How do you claim it to be false, that is? )

[TheForgot3n1]

Okay, maybe a bit hard on Segaco in the end here since you were active beginning of this day, but yesterday you weren't very active.

[teamalex]

He could be Cit. Perhaps mafia are trying to get him on their side.

[TheCow]

I don't need to post a defence because swords definitely won't flip town :^)

[teamalex]

Let's hope you are right. However if Swords flips town, you are next on the list.

[TheCow]

Cow is a shot in the dark for me. He has an extremely atypical playstyle and, while I can't elaborate due to ongoing games, you can expect him to be relatively scummy as town — but not always. At the moment I don't quite get the scummiest vibes from him. Blades, I feel is more likely town than anything else.

Also, if Blades is scum, James is most likely not scum with him.

In regards to the witch, I actually just remembered conflicting information. Better to just ask Rock, in case, even if it doesn't really make sense.

Rock, does a witch actually visit both their targets?

Witch only visits the first target. This is how we get witched-into-the-vet situations.

[alouvre]

Forgotten, I know you love beinh the devil's advocate, but could you just look at Swords' posts and tell me how in the literal hell he's town?

I don't see how my read on him is "skewed"; he has not has townie behaviour, his claim is not solid. He claimed a confirmable role, then he claimed spy. He said he pushed on Santa because he thought he was targeted by his disguiser/framer buddy, then he completely dropped the pressure on him after he claimed escort. He has refused to answer to accusations and has passed off his lack of contribution as "I don't know how to make/habitually do reads". Is this townie behaviour to you?

As stated before, Santa would've been semi-confirmed today anyway. Why? Because he claimed to visit Milte, and a consort would only visit Milte to 1) prevent a self-target from a prot or 2) to go through a marshal. Both of these explanations are highly situational and considering the fact Milte almost never gets killed first due to their quiet nature, I believe it was a safe kill and thus would need no backup plan.

An escort is also extremely harmful for the mafia when they are wittled down in numbers, because it could out them easily. Killing Santa was an action that prevented a difficult situation in the future. Therefore, I do not feel as if his death was entirely baseless.

In regards to my other reads, you don't only look at a person's post alone. You must look at them in context. Santa's ISO was scummy, but I realized he had a higher chance of being town because he claimed a semi-confirmable role that visited Milte. James hasn't really done anything of much note and has been pushing something really unfounded, but the mindset behind it seems townie, et cetera.

There is no need for a massclaim right now. It only benefits scum at this point.

[alouvre]

That post had a shitstorm of grammar errors. Sorry if anything seemed unclear.

[TheForgot3n1]

Forgotten, I know you love beinh the devil's advocate, but could you just look at Swords' posts and tell me how in the literal hell he's town?

I don't see how my read on him is "skewed"; he has not has townie behaviour, his claim is not solid. He claimed a confirmable role, then he claimed spy. He said he pushed on Santa because he thought he was targeted by his disguiser/framer buddy, then he completely dropped the pressure on him after he claimed escort. He has refused to answer to accusations and has passed off his lack of contribution as "I don't know how to make/habitually do reads". Is this townie behaviour to you? [...]

I will post a reply as soon as I get back home! (About 5-6 hours I reckon)

Yes I might realize I am playing devil's advocate to a certain degree... maybe a bit too much. Saying confirmeable role is quite the big claim... But I don't want to waste the whole day only focusing on Swords.

Why did you say you were a confirm-able role, Swords? You weren't really one. At least you're probably not Witch, that's for sure.

[Swordsworth]

I don't need to post a defence because swords definitely won't flip town :^)

Boy, doesn't this sound familiar? The similarity to NFM3 is ASTONISHING

Segaco hasn't been visited again, so I'm presuming he was visited by a Framer or Consigliere.

Okay alouvre, here's your problem. First, no matter whether I had been lynched or not, Santa probably would have died because, as you said it yourself, Escort is a pain lategame. You wax on about how me dying would have basically confirmed Santa...but what good would that do? You're acting as though the night doesn't exist.

[alouvre]

> implying I knew Santa was going to die

It's nice to see you're ignoring the other accusations against you, but hey, if you're town, Swords, you wouldn't have known Santa was going to die either. What's your point? That's not the only thing people have been getting onto you for, and you still haven't answered why you pressured Santa in the first place, nor have you answered why you claimed confirmable when you clearly aren't.

"Santa could've been framed/disguised" is not a valid answer because, again, you wouldn't've known if he really was or not even after he claimed. And I really do not think an actual spy will simply wave off results like that.

Then, who should we lynch today, Swords, and why would their lynch be better than yours?