[Newcomer FM] NFM 5 | So Close (Mafia Wins!)

[teamalex]

The reads are very basic for now, expect it to change when everyone has said a word and the discussion is more active.

Questions for everyone:

Who would you lynch today and why?
Who do you see as Town/scum and why?
When should we massclaim in your opinion?

[TheCow]

We'll likely mass claim in LyLo or bad MyLo, unless we get forced into it for whatever reason.

[Santa07]

The reads are very basic for now, expect it to change when everyone has said a word and the discussion is more active.

Questions for everyone:

Who would you lynch today and why?
Who do you see as Town/scum and why?
When should we massclaim in your opinion?

1) At this point some people like Segaco who have put in absolutely no effort are very scummy, but I don't like to hold that against new players that much. We still have a bit left in the day so if we keep our eyes open we might catch a scumslip or something.
2) I'll do reads when I get some time
3) When either we're getting close to having this in the bag and there's only one scum that we don't know and need to find through PoE, or when there's a problem that massclaiming prevents.

[Segaco]

Who would you lynch today and why?
I don't have any reads.
Who do you see as Town/scum and why?
I don't have any reads.
When should we massclaim in your opinion?
When we are at 1 person from losing majority

These questions are pointless right now.

Now.

Spoiler:

Everyone has claimed to have slept peacefully except for James and the person who died.

Sigh

Spoiler:

It is. A player who doesn't discuss during the day is viewed as a scum. Doesn't contribute, can't be read etc.

Then the read is stated as neutral or no read.
Not as scum.

No this is wrong. Lurking means you don't want to post and gives the impression that you've got something to hide, i.e. being scum, and that you're trying to fly under the radar to prevent that being discovered. Being inactive will most often give you scum reads next to your name.

I will answer to this with another quote.

Inactivity is a null tell, though inactive players should either pick up activity or replace. Active lurking is a scum tell. That is, posting just enough to not be prodded but not contributing anything in one's few posts.

[James2]

The mafia won't know if the person was healed by a doctor or protected by a marshal. Saying you were healed tells the mafia that there's a doctor (the target doesn't know if a marshal saved them). And it's entirely possible for there to be two roles of the same category. Look at NFM2, we lost that game because people (including myself) couldn't believe there were two protectives.

The possible cases:
1. Mafia hits a townie who is healed/defended: mafia knows that their target didn't die, which ONLY leaves the possibility of the target being healed or marshal. There is no other possible conclusion to be drawn from mafia since they know who they targeted and they know if target was immune (which they weren't if target was healed).

2. Mafia hits witch who is healed: okay I actually don't even know this scenario (I guess mafia gets the immune message, but doctor gets confused about it being a townie) but it's really unlikely, and not worth caring about that much (good scenario anyway).

So, logically, not saying if you're healed makes town not know whether Witch was found, mafia was roleblocked, mafia hit a healed target or mafia didnt hit at all. While the information mafia gains from saying you're healed is that it wasn't marshal (which really isn't huge information to get), town get's a huge amount of information - one 80%-confirmed townie and getting rid of so much confusion on what really happened. Also, it's not bad for town to know there is a doctor as well, Mafia and town gets same information.

TL;DR (im a bit long-winded) Not telling town you were healed keeps crucial information from Town, it adds nothing, since the Doctor/Marshal knows if they helped the target (confirmed townie) and removes big confusion. The only information it gives to mafia is the presence of doctor, which townies receive as well.

This seems pretty straightforward to me, so please be nice if I missed something retardedly obvious. XD

Unless you hit the ExperienceHammer on me I will be announcing whether I'm healed to town. I would really like to be confirmed. (If I would be mafia pretending then at least no townie was killed at night, which is huge for us)

Whether there is a marshal or a doctor is useful information for the mafia. If they believe there's a marshal, they may try to attack targets that are likely to be protected, by having a consort or mafia deception shadow the killer (marshal only scares away one). If they do that and it's actually a doctor, then they've wasted two night actions. If they know it's a doctor they won't even try.

And it doesn't confirm the target, even if the doctor confirms that they healed the person (which they should NOT do), they'll still not be confirmed, because they could be witch, or even a mafia member (witch could accidentally make one mafia member attack the other).

So should we lynch or wait for an another day?

This is a slow game compared to ToS, if I'm right we still have 3 days time. We should use it to the full extent to find the best possible lynch. We haven't heard opinions from some people yet, so lynching now would be really random and the person maybe can't even defend himself(by this I mean inactivity).

Lucas, also you didn't answer the second question correctly. Who seems suspicious right now after you have read the thread? I have some people in my mind, I will reveal that list in 24 hours probably.

There is no correct awnser, if you find someone sus but you are not 100% sure then you keep that in your will and not on the chat.
That's how I play.

This is just dead wrong. Normally it'd be a scumtell but I'm not sure it is because you're brand new. You do not keep your suspicions to yourself. That's not how FM is played. Who is suspicious of whom, and who defends whom, are ways of making associative tells. You need to say whom you find suspicious.

P.S. Get active.

The reads are very basic for now, expect it to change when everyone has said a word and the discussion is more active.

Questions for everyone:

Who would you lynch today and why?
Who do you see as Town/scum and why?
When should we massclaim in your opinion?

I'd probably lynch Lucas or segaco. They're both actively lurking, posting without any content.
Swords and you are both pushing discussion, so I'd say you're both town reads.
When we have no other way to proceed, either MYLO, LYLO, or when only one scum is left.

[teamalex]

Who would you lynch today and why?
I don't have any reads.
Who do you see as Town/scum and why?
I don't have any reads.
When should we massclaim in your opinion?
When we are at 1 person from losing majority

Pointless questions? Then ask some yourself and get the discussion going. We have to start from somewhere, otherwise it's going to be like the start of the day again. I don't like you at all, Segaco, it seems like you don't want to solve the crime...

[TheForgot3n1]

Slight Town. Answered questions, said his opinion on the TP problem, which I agree with, however calling James suspicious after you disagreed on that is just wrong.

I don't think it's wrong to point fingers in this game. It says more about me, and it says more about the target, when they react. In FM we have so much time that you can directly call someone out and still have time to retract that in case you were just pushing buttons.

Whether there is a marshal or a doctor is useful information for the mafia. If they believe there's a marshal, they may try to attack targets that are likely to be protected, by having a consort or mafia deception shadow the killer (marshal only scares away one). If they do that and it's actually a doctor, then they've wasted two night actions. If they know it's a doctor they won't even try.

And it doesn't confirm the target, even if the doctor confirms that they healed the person (which they should NOT do), they'll still not be confirmed, because they could be witch, or even a mafia member (witch could accidentally make one mafia member attack the other).

Indeed there is definitely no point for doctor or marshal confirm that they helped. Announcing being healed is different though!

When does the "replace" timer end? Doesn't feel like discussion is moving along the way you would hope. :O

Question: Do you think it is better to "random lynch" one of the quiet players or nolynch?

I know it's a bit mean, but in town of salem if someone spams stuff, or doesn't answer in general, then you simply lynch them since you have trouble getting anywhere if things continue as they do. I feel the same here to be honest.
A nolynch isn't that bad either tho, if we want to be a bit nicer I guess. (Guarantees us another night of town actions (invests, heals) instead of potentially giving mafia a free kill)

[Segaco]

Who would you lynch today and why?
I don't have any reads.
Who do you see as Town/scum and why?
I don't have any reads.
When should we massclaim in your opinion?
When we are at 1 person from losing majority

Pointless questions? Then ask some yourself and get the discussion going. We have to start from somewhere, otherwise it's going to be like the start of the day again. I don't like you at all, Segaco, it seems like you don't want to solve the crime...

We don't have any info, there's literally nothing to go on.

[Swordsworth]

You're force-replaced after 36 hours of zero contribution.

I can see what Cow's saying right now with the no lynch; there's no one expressly scummy...except Segaco, now that I'm looking at his posts. Let's go deeper with this.

Segaco, why do you have no reads yet? Why are you so insistent on the way inactives are read? Tell us more about your opinions.

[teamalex]

Question: Do you think it is better to "random lynch" one of the quiet players or nolynch?

I know it's a bit mean, but in town of salem if someone spams stuff, or doesn't answer in general, then you simply lynch them since you have trouble getting anywhere if things continue as they do. I feel the same here to be honest.
A nolynch isn't that bad either tho, if we want to be a bit nicer I guess. (Guarantees us another night of town actions (invests, heals) instead of potentially giving mafia a free kill)

Random lynch is bad in FM. We have 5 days to dicuss, which should be enough to find a scum. The person could just be inactive or sth like that, it's a waste of a lynch. I'd rather wait for them being replaced.

[RockFire]

Hunter394 has been prodded for inactivity.

[TheForgot3n1]

This is just dead wrong. Normally it'd be a scumtell but I'm not sure it is because you're brand new. You do not keep your suspicions to yourself. That's not how FM is played. Who is suspicious of whom, and who defends whom, are ways of making associative tells. You need to say whom you find suspicious.

P.S. Get active.

I'm sorry for that. I'm not that active person. Btw I'm not the only one who doesn't post any content, look at BladesofSteel for exeple. I don't say he is sus, but I wanna let you know. Anyway this is just theory but what if you are the Janitor and try to clean someone but can't because the Witch control you. Maybe this is just too early to say that but this is my theory for now.

It is possible, but you have to think of how likely it is. And the likelihood of that being the case is about (1/12)*(1/3). Same with marshal scaring a janitor or something like that. Let's just assume there is no Janitor, it's not that big of a deal if there is a lying-in-wait janitor anyway since they failed a crucial clean.

[teamalex]

Waiting on Polyester and Blades to give more opinions, so we can see the full picture. Hopefully they do it in the next 12 hours or so.

How much time is left in the day anyway?

Also let the Janitor question be for now, we will find it out the next day.

[PolyesterHomes]

Who would you lynch today and why?:

I would probably lynch Secago, as I am getting really bad vibes from him

Who do you see as Town/scum and why?

Secago seems to be acting like scum, and Blades of steel has failed to respond for a long time. Swordsworth seems to be likely town, and James seems to be likely town as well.

When should we massclaim in your opinion?

When we are one person from losing majority.

[teamalex]

Still thinking we should nolynch today. I'm not sure if we should start getting roles and then using PoE, because this is very slow. Waiting on Blades and Segaco, I think Blades is close to getting a prod. Like seriously if you don't want to play, replace out.

[Santa07]

Just a tip - pushing for a nolynch is generally seen as scummy, unless it is very close to the end of the day and there are no leads at all.

[teamalex]

Well, Santa, what should we do in your opinion?

[teamalex]

1) At this point some people like Segaco who have put in absolutely no effort are very scummy, but I don't like to hold that against new players that much. We still have a bit left in the day so if we keep our eyes open we might catch a scumslip or something.
2) I'll do reads when I get some time
3) When either we're getting close to having this in the bag and there's only one scum that we don't know and need to find through PoE, or when there's a problem that massclaiming prevents.

Never mind.

[teamalex]

Slept peacefully.

Same here.

But it's unfortunate that we have lost a Citizen. Hopefully milte34 wasn't one of the 4 experienced players that was selected for this game. To start off today's discussion, I've prepared an RQS:

1. How do you think the set-up is prepared, in terms of the number of Town/Mafia/Neurtrals?

2. Are there any specific strategies town should follow, given that this is a game that is dedicated to players who are new to FM?

3. How do you feel about random votes? Should we have a D1 lynch, or no lynch at all?

Tbh this makes me think Blades is just inactive town, what are everyone elses opinion on this?

[TheCow]

Segaco's crime is one of inactivity. A lynch on Segaco would be a mere policy lynch. The same could be said of many other players. I dislike Santa's tangential address of something he has issue with. This pattern of non-comital dissociation is indeed scummy.

BoS is not active enough to have posted anything alignment indicative at this time. Considering the motivation to post while playing as scum -- be it moderator or player posting -- I do not believe inactivity is a valid scum tell in this game.

[teamalex]

I feel like one of you, Cow or Santa, is scum.

Segaco, share your opinions ASAP please.

Cow, who do you see as scum?

Also paritchithay, I want more from you.

[TheCow]

I'm throwing null reads on all of the inactive -- or lower activity -- players, for now. Towns reads I've stated. I can honestly see Santa being scum at this point. It fits his meta to be inactive as scum, and I do not believe he's in any major games at the moment.

I want to see more from swords so I can get a proper read on the guy. He hasn't done anything so far this game. He's lumped with my other inactive null reads.

I am uneasy of Lucas at this point. Nothing substantial enough to make a case over -- not even enough for me to get a solid gut read out -- but he's definitely on my watch list.

I have some association reads, but those aren't any good until we start seeing flips.

[teamalex]

Would you still nolynch at this point?

Swords and Santa, if you could post your reads so far that would be great.

[TheCow]

If it were in my power, no. Though, it is appearing to be a possibility at this point -- depending on how players go forward.

[teamalex]

It would be nice, if you ask us some questions to get the discussion rolling again. I would do it myself but I'm all out of ideas.

@RockFire, Hunter has 3 hours left and Hunter is close to getting a prod I think.