[Newcomer FM] NFM 5 | So Close (Mafia Wins!)

[TheForgot3n1]

The mafia won't know if the person was healed by a doctor or protected by a marshal. Saying you were healed tells the mafia that there's a doctor (the target doesn't know if a marshal saved them). And it's entirely possible for there to be two roles of the same category. Look at NFM2, we lost that game because people (including myself) couldn't believe there were two protectives.

The possible cases:
1. Mafia hits a townie who is healed/defended: mafia knows that their target didn't die, which ONLY leaves the possibility of the target being healed or marshal. There is no other possible conclusion to be drawn from mafia since they know who they targeted and they know if target was immune (which they weren't if target was healed).

2. Mafia hits witch who is healed: okay I actually don't even know this scenario (I guess mafia gets the immune message, but doctor gets confused about it being a townie) but it's really unlikely, and not worth caring about that much (good scenario anyway).

So, logically, not saying if you're healed makes town not know whether Witch was found, mafia was roleblocked, mafia hit a healed target or mafia didnt hit at all. While the information mafia gains from saying you're healed is that it wasn't marshal (which really isn't huge information to get), town get's a huge amount of information - one 80%-confirmed townie and getting rid of so much confusion on what really happened. Also, it's not bad for town to know there is a doctor as well, Mafia and town gets same information.

TL;DR (im a bit long-winded) Not telling town you were healed keeps crucial information from Town, it adds nothing, since the Doctor/Marshal knows if they helped the target (confirmed townie) and removes big confusion. The only information it gives to mafia is the presence of doctor, which townies receive as well.

This seems pretty straightforward to me, so please be nice if I missed something retardedly obvious. XD

Unless you hit the ExperienceHammer on me I will be announcing whether I'm healed to town. I would really like to be confirmed. (If I would be mafia pretending then at least no townie was killed at night, which is huge for us)

[teamalex]

Okay, I understand. If you have time please read this thread and give your opinions/answer the questions.

[teamalex]

In my opinion in this game it would make sense to say you were attacked and healed. Like Forgot says it adds a pretty much confirmed town member. If I'm right, and I'm pretty sure I am, the mafia member who made the attack would get a message if their target was immune. That means mafia would know that the person was healed/. If you are a Bodyguard and selfvest, I can see not claiming attacked working out perhaps, since they might think you are the Witch.

It confirms what role the Town Protective is, I'm not sure why that is a bad thing. If you can't believe that the Random Town is TP, I think it's more the player's fault unable to convince the Town than anything. Were there really more believable claims or was the player in NFM 2 just acting scummy?

Is the mafia member notified if they were scared off by a Marshal though, it doesn't say in the rolecard?

[teamalex]

Right now we don't have pretty much information. Milte, an experienced player was killed N1, which is usual in NFM games. So far we think that the Mafia doesn't have a Consort/Janitor, that's about it. Currently we are trying to discuss and answer/ask questions to find the scum, it is going real slowly though.

[Swordsworth]

We unfortunately do not have the luxury of waiting and nolynching. It's only a short time before we lose majority.
I recommend everyone answer my questions.

[teamalex]

So should we lynch or wait for an another day?

This is a slow game compared to ToS, if I'm right we still have 3 days time. We should use it to the full extent to find the best possible lynch. We haven't heard opinions from some people yet, so lynching now would be really random and the person maybe can't even defend himself(by this I mean inactivity).

Lucas, also you didn't answer the second question correctly. Who seems suspicious right now after you have read the thread? I have some people in my mind, I will reveal that list in 24 hours probably.

[Santa07]

It is. A player who doesn't discuss during the day is viewed as a scum. Doesn't contribute, can't be read etc.

Then the read is stated as neutral or no read.
Not as scum.

No this is wrong. Lurking means you don't want to post and gives the impression that you've got something to hide, i.e. being scum, and that you're trying to fly under the radar to prevent that being discovered. Being inactive will most often give you scum reads next to your name.

[TheCow]

Getting weird vibes from steel. They only have one real post though so the ultimate read is null for now. Their one post, though, just has weird content.

James was witched. Looks like the witch was going for an experienced newbie as their target. So they either have played some, did their homework, or its coincidence. Doubt the witch is among the official experienced players, though. Just all things considered. James posts lead me to give him a tentative town read. Based on his D1 posts and the witching, that is.

Inactivity is a null tell, though inactive players should either pick up activity or replace. Active lurking is a scum tell. That is, posting just enough to not be prodded but not contributing anything in one's few posts.

Santa has a couple posts D2, nothing really notable so far. That'd lead me to a null read, though I feel something dubious afoot, and there's also the inverted associative tells. Keeping an eye here for now.

Wanting to see more from pari. Based on my previous experience with him, I think I'll be able to get a pretty solid read on this slot.

Swords is actively playing the same he did last NFM. Null read, at the moment. You never know, maybe he'll claim blackmailed.

Solid town read on forgoten. Looking good at this point. Their posts aren't so analytical at this point (no one's posts are) so this read is pretty weak at the moment.

No clue why a townie would lie about what happened to them at night. If you're attacked, claimed so much. If you're witch, claim it etc. Not really any reason not to.

[PolyesterHomes]

Firstly, what do you think to be the mafia makeup? What can we learn from the kill on milte?

Second, what two players does everyone find the most suspicious?

1: We probably don't have a janitor, and we probably don't have a mafia role that tells you when you have been targeted when the night ends.
2: Secago, for his claims about silent people, and Hunter for being so silent

Everyone has claimed to have slept peacefully except for James and the person who died.

[TheCow]

Only way the Mafia could have a janitor -- imo -- is if the kill target was marshalled or witched. There's no reason not to clean, otherwise.

[Swordsworth]

Let's do some projecting, shall we?

Mafioso OR Consigliere
Consigliere OR Framer
Blackmailer OR Disguiser OR Mafioso

Consort has been eliminated due to lack of a roleblock claim. This leads us down a few viable paths:

Mafioso
Consigliere OR Framer
Blackmailer OR Disguiser

or

Consigliere
Framer
Blackmailer OR Disguiser OR Mafioso.

Point out if you see something wrong with these, I'm in class at the moment.

[TheCow]

What if Hunter is blackmailed?

Blackmailer works different in FM. I'd recommend looking it up in Rolecards.

[TheCow]

Let's do some projecting, shall we?

Mafioso OR Consigliere
Consigliere OR Framer
Blackmailer OR Disguiser OR Mafioso

Consort has been eliminated due to lack of a roleblock claim. This leads us down a few viable paths:

Mafioso
Consigliere OR Framer
Blackmailer OR Disguiser

or

Consigliere
Framer
Blackmailer OR Disguiser OR Mafioso.

Point out if you see something wrong with these, I'm in class at the moment.

Consig isn't unique.

[Swordsworth]

Thanks for catching that. But do you honestly expect there to be two consiglieres?

[TheCow]

Why would I rule it out? Dubious.

[Swordsworth]

Maybe it's just meta, but I find it incredibly unfair or exceedingly powerful to roll two consiglieres, so I ruled it out.

[TheCow]

If something were disallowed by the mods, they'd say it. It's a possibility regardless.

[teamalex]

Cow, if you had to lynch someone right now and it'd be up to you, who would you pick?

[TheCow]

I'd probably nolynch ttttttttt bbbbbbb hhhhhhh

[teamalex]

Didn't see this one coming. And what is your reasoning behind that?

[TheCow]

I don't have any solid scum reads. I'd rather nolynch than mislynch.

[teamalex]

I understand. Let's wait it out, I would like to hear more from Segaco/Steel. Pretty sure Hunter has been inactive for more than 36 hours now.

[teamalex]

Sorry for double post. Unless we have found scum I agree with a nolynch. Let's say we mislynch someone like Hunter(if he is town), mafia kills that night, then we would already be in MyLo, if I'm right.

[TheCow]

LyLo -- or we straight up lose in the WCS.

I'm still developing my reads, for the time being.

[teamalex]

Current reads, first time doing this so don't expect much from here

TheCow
Spoiler: Had a long period of inactivity in the beginning, but now I've seen him discuss things. I hope you're town this time around, because I sure as hell can't notice scum in you. Neutral for now.

Swordsworth
Spoiler: Tried to wake up the Town by asking questions, I mean as an experienced player it's logical but I see it positively. Also figured out the mafia composition and talked about it. Slight Town.

Santa07
Spoiler: You are an experienced player, yet I have seen nothing much from you. You didn't answer Swordsworth's questions like I wanted you to, you are not asking any questions, it doesn't seem a Town thing to do to me... Slight scum/Neutral.

TheForgot3n1
Spoiler: Slight Town. Answered questions, said his opinion on the TP problem, which I agree with, however calling James suspicious after you disagreed on that is just wrong.

lucas8411
Spoiler: I see that you are trying. Neutral for now. Keep it up and I might change my opinion.

paritchay
Spoiler: I know that you can talk more than you have, since you have experience under your belt. I want to hear more from you. Neutral.

BladesOfSteel
Spoiler: Nothing useful so far. I want to hear more from you. Neutral.

Hunter394
Spoiler: Neutral. I hope this guy gets replaced out, if he stays inactive like this.

James2
Spoiler: You claimed witched, answered my questions and discussed about it, hasn't answered Swords questions yet, however I trust you. I want to see your opinions and reads, when you have time. Slight Town.

Segaco
Spoiler: You haven't said anything useful besides you saying you slept peacefully. Get your head in the game. Neutral.