[Newcomer FM] NFM1 | "Getting Schooled" (Town & Exe Wins!)

[CJBlack44]

We still have 4 people who haven't said a word but maybe they have weird timezones or busy schedules.

By day 2 we should have a better idea what the Mafia composition is, which will help our TI if they are Investigator, and will hopefully tell us more about potential suspects.

I agree since this is day 1 we should make the best of it and try to create discussions which can help us make reads. Only...I have no idea how do that lol

[TheCow]

Lets try a topic question:

If the TI cannot come up with any solid leads, would it be reasonable to nolynch in MyLo knowing that there is only one KPD?

[alouvre]

I see.

In the case you provided, Cow, I don't believe there's much we can do aside from doing what we are now. We could analyze the night kill, but there's so much WIFOM there it may be a waste of time.

Yes, I believe it would be reasonable to nolynch in MYLO. In fact, I feel as if it's the best course of action, but we should still make use of the time we will be given.

Only...I have no idea how do that lol

same

[RhazhBash]

By the time we hit MyLo we'll have enough posts (or inactivity...) from everyone to get some basic reads on them. I don't see nolynch being more viable than lynch anytime soon, because we won't have 5 days without anyone acting scummy.

[RhazhBash]

So far cheesy mindslayer and kindred I believe are the only ones not to post yet. I'd like to hear from them sometime soon...

[alouvre]

Right, one more thing. Post list.

>> Arcthurus
>> Rossendale
>> RhazhBash
>> Mindslayer
>> CJBlack44
>> MamiT0m0e
>> Kindred
>> Kmenx
>> cheeseybrain
>> Metrion
>> Alouvre
>> TheCow

By the time we hit MyLo we'll have enough posts (or inactivity...) from everyone to get some basic reads on them. I don't see nolynch being more viable than lynch anytime soon, because we won't have 5 days without anyone acting scummy.

From what I'm understanding, if one townie dies tonight, we'll already be in MYLO. Unless we're absolutely sure we're making a right lynch, then it would be better to just nolynch, to allow the PRs to gather more information.

So far cheesy mindslayer and kindred I believe are the only ones not to post yet. I'd like to hear from them sometime soon...

And Metrion. rip

[TheCow]

Yeah, we're going to be in MyLo tomorrow, most likely. A bit of a design oversight, I'm surprised none of us caught it until now. We'll have to see what happens tomorrow, but it does make a nolynch quite viable in that regard. Though, we'll know for sure what to do tomorrow.

I'll do a reread and pull up posts that could potentially look off, just to get discussion going again.

[TheCow]

MamiT0m0e, you've done your reading, it seems.


Nothing alignment indicative has been posted by anyone yet, I don't think.

RhazhBash, you don't think there is very much good information in Kill Analysis? How about something like Vote Analysis, then?

[RhazhBash]

MamiT0m0e, you've done your reading, it seems.


Nothing alignment indicative has been posted by anyone yet, I don't think.

RhazhBash, you don't think there is very much good information in Kill Analysis? How about something like Vote Analysis, then?

Well im speculating our Exe/Jester to fakeclaim a PR sometime soon, so we have that to go off of. After one day any death is still a good way to narrow down our suspects. Hopefully we won't lose our Protective N1, that would be a nightmare. For voting analysis I'd say we can learn a lot from what people seem to want to do. If someone claiming Town Investigative is content on lynching the person they "checked last night", despite everyone else saying a Framer or Disguiser messed it up, then you may have an Exe/Jester there.

[alouvre]

Sure, I'll go back and reread the thread too.

Ya i have a question that i pmd our moderator (arcthurus) just a bit a go... I am confused on what is a day chat?

Nothing inherently wrong with this, but it did catch my attention. May be trying to insert the thought that 'they didn't know what a day chat was, so they can't be mafia' - or they may have intentionally said this to draw attention to themselves, as why would you ask the same question in thread if you had already messaged the moderator about it?

This Day Chat thing is weird that means Mafia can communicate as we speak?! Like, right now?

Could be fake-surprise, but to be fair, I reacted similarly when I first experienced daychat. CJ is also one of the people I can feel myself formulating a (town)read on, for reasons I'll elaborate on later.

Greetings fellow nubs. I wish you all good luck, you're gonna need it.

Why would they need it?

@Arc can framer unframe mafia members for investigator

I'm not Arc, but no. They cannot make mafia members appear N/S for the sheriff.

And that's pretty much all I saw. Unless this game miraculously racks up a lot of posts, we'll probably just be grasping for straws today, but it wouldn't hurt to read a little deeper.

[TheCow]

I claim Medium /s

[TheCow]

MamiT0m0e, you've done your reading, it seems.


Nothing alignment indicative has been posted by anyone yet, I don't think.

RhazhBash, you don't think there is very much good information in Kill Analysis? How about something like Vote Analysis, then?

Well im speculating our Exe/Jester to fakeclaim a PR sometime soon, so we have that to go off of. After one day any death is still a good way to narrow down our suspects. Hopefully we won't lose our Protective N1, that would be a nightmare. For voting analysis I'd say we can learn a lot from what people seem to want to do. If someone claiming Town Investigative is content on lynching the person they "checked last night", despite everyone else saying a Framer or Disguiser messed it up, then you may have an Exe/Jester there.

Jokes aside, this is a good point. The NE can either go for the D2 grab and try to win the game, or up the pressure for a D3 win. One way or anything, at least one person is going bring forward "evidence". We should take this into consideration moving forward.

Anyway, I have a doubt that NE will be siding with either faction this game. Too risky, considering how short this game is going to be. If they do, it'll probably be endgame when it's their only chance to win. I wouldn't trust a D2 Exe claim. Or medium claim. Or both.

[Metrion]

Firstly, lets get into the swing of things with a protection claim. I'd really appreciate some protection.


@alouvre & Kmenx: Framer can frame his partners to appear as any result to the Investigator, yes. So Citizen unfortunately isn't an insta-clear for invests.

If we came down to a mylo scenario, I think we should nolynch. We don't have many PRs, or at least ones to rely on confidently, so we need to make the most of them. So normally my stance is that we take an extra night and try to get as much information as possible. However I think a better way is to look at it like this: Are we going to be more confident lynching scum tomorrow then today? Whether to nolynch or not should be based on your answer.

[TheCow]

^ditto

[alouvre]

@alouvre & Kmenx: Framer can frame his partners to appear as any result to the Investigator, yes. So Citizen unfortunately isn't an insta-clear for invests.

I'M SO EMBARRASSED DON'T LOOK AT ME

If we came down to a mylo scenario, I think we should nolynch. We don't have many PRs, or at least ones to rely on confidently, so we need to make the most of them. So normally my stance is that we take an extra night and try to get as much information as possible. However I think a better way is to look at it like this: Are we going to be more confident lynching scum tomorrow then today? Whether to nolynch or not should be based on your answer.

That would depend if somebody comes up with evidence against someone, although I'm with Rzazh on how the exe/jester will probably make their move tomorrow. They may even try to start today. So depending on how they react, we'll probably have to go from there.

[CJBlack44]

First of all, I have no idea what KPD is. But I will try to answer your question the best way I can without that information (I'm REALLY bad on Mafia slang\whatever this is )

MyLo is mislynch and lose, right? Which would technically mean town has x members, Mafia + Neutrals are x-1, right? Which would mean town would make majority, but if we mislynch, we lose the majority because town has x-1 members, same as the scum, yes?

In that kind of situation, my optimistic nature tells me that it's impossible we won't have a suspect. BUT let's say we don't.

If we don't lynch, what happens? One of us likely gets killed the following night, and we tie in numbers with the scum. Which means we lose anyway, since we can't lynch, and we might not have a TK. So, in this situation, I really don't see why we wouldn't lynch, since it's our only chance?!? Unless something is wrong with my reasoning. If so, please explain.

[Metrion]

So, what's everyone stances about, lets say a Sheriff, or something along those lines revealing now and forming a follow the cop strategy (Protective stays on revealed town as we lynch off who they find)?

I'm not saying this is a good strategy, or even one that should be employed (given reasons) but I'm interested in seeing everyone's thoughts.


@CJ

You're describing lylo: lynch or lose.

Miss lynch or lose would be only if that extra town dying from the lynch tied the numbers.

[alouvre]

First of all, I have no idea what KPD is. But I will try to answer your question the best way I can without that information (I'm REALLY bad on Mafia slang\whatever this is )

MyLo is mislynch and lose, right? Which would technically mean town has x members, Mafia + Neutrals are x-1, right? Which would mean town would make majority, but if we mislynch, we lose the majority because town has x-1 members, same as the scum, yes?

In that kind of situation, my optimistic nature tells me that it's impossible we won't have a suspect. BUT let's say we don't.

If we don't lynch, what happens? One of us likely gets killed the following night, and we tie in numbers with the scum. Which means we lose anyway, since we can't lynch, and we might not have a TK. So, in this situation, I really don't see why we wouldn't lynch, since it's our only chance?!? Unless something is wrong with my reasoning. If so, please explain.

KPD = kill per day.

MYLO is mislynch and lose, yes. And that's right.

Tomorrow, if we have a kill on town, it will be 6 v 4. If we do not lynch, and the mafia kills another townie, we will be 5 v 4 on D3. If we mislynch, however, and mafia kills another townie, we'll be at 4 v 4.

[alouvre]

So, what's everyone stances about, lets say a Sheriff, or something along those lines revealing now and forming a follow the cop strategy (Protective stays on revealed town as we lynch off who they find)?

I'm not saying this is a good strategy, or even one that should be employed (given reasons) but I'm interested in seeing everyone's thoughts.

There may be a consort. I don't think it's a good idea right now. Maybe tomorrow, when we'll have more setup information.

[TheCow]

So the concensus is that the NE is going to come out tomorrow? Dangerous assumption to make

KPD - Kill per day.

MyLo would be x-2, because scum would have the same number as town after a mislynch and a night kill.

As said, Consort could be a thing, so no Cop should reveal. Also a chance of a CC, or a chance of multiple cops, etc. Too many variables.

[alouvre]

So the concensus is that the NE is going to come out tomorrow? Dangerous assumption to make

What do you mean?

[Metrion]

Lets say no one gets roleblocked tonight, then how would we progress? (I'm looking more for the none IC's to tackle these questions but you can chime in I guess.)

[CJBlack44]

Thanks, I get it now. In fact, I sort of realized it must be something like this but only after I posted. That usually happens to me, no epiphanies until I say something stupid

Ok, so basically tomorrow we will have this MyLo situation if a townie dies tonight, right? Seeing as we'll be 6v4 - with a mislynch, 5v4 before the night and most likely 4v4 the following day. This is pretty sad

OR maybe we'll be superlucky and the Neutral is an executioner whose target is an easily confirmable town and said executioner will be hit by mafia tonight. I know, pretty far-fetched but hey, I've seen weirder shit

But seriously now, if tomorrow we have Mylo, seeing as it's day 2, lynching doesn't sound like such a good idea anymore. However, it is possible that we might get some leads, maybe TI gets lucky tonight. Truthfully, I'm mostly afraid of the Neutrals, cause they might screw us up like you guys said. Do you think town should attempt to make some kind of a deal with the neutral today or tomorrow? It would make life much easier for us, and if our life is easier, our chances are better and we can afford to give the neutral their win. I'm just asking what you guys think. I have a tendency to be sympathetic toward neutrals.

@Metrion: sheriff revealing could go both ways...? I'm really not sure about that. On one hand, it would be a good for obvious reasons, but also a lot of things can go wrong: the protective can die, and then the sheriff and the entire town is completely doomed. OR we could have a counterclaimer, and then we'd maybe suspect one is jester, but which one? Revealing as sheriff would actually be an excellent strategy for a neutral, especially an executioner. Maybe jester not so much, though even then it could work. Also, we might have a consort, and then we'd basically be fucked. I honestly don't even know if I should say everything that goes through my head, I feel like I'd just be giving scum ideas

On the other hand, sheriff not revealing could lead to them not being protected and to their untimely death. It's a really tricky decision for a game with no whispers and I have no idea what to say. I'll think about it some more and when I have a clear opinion, I will say so.

Post edit: even without the Consort...still risky. It would honestly also depend on who the sheriff claim is, and how believable they are as town, and as sheriff. I'd trust some people far more than others.

[alouvre]

I'm not sure if we can afford to strike a deal with the neutrals, but it's an interesting idea nonetheless. Assuming we can, how do you suggest we go about it?

[Metrion]

Post edit: even without the Consort...still risky. It would honestly also depend on who the sheriff claim is, and how believable they are as town, and as sheriff. I'd trust some people far more than others.

I'm going to say this, you shouldn't trust any one person more than the others right now. Unless you're scum then you shouldn't have any natural biases. So far no big stances, overall contribution or flips have happened, all one can tell scum by is guessing currently, reads with this few posts and content would be fairly inaccurate, especially against ICs.

So remember to try and look for content and more solid ties to scum, and supplement them with your reads and gut. Things like seeing who's agenda their pushing, associative tells, contribution matched against their activity, and ultimately what agenda they are pushing are good things to think about when looking out for scum and forming solid opinions.


As for the neutrals, if they want to reveal. I will not stop them, despite best practices for their role.