CFM10 | "Sailing a Salty Sea" - (Sailors Win!)

[spretznaz]

I'll call you out on that. Let's see if anyone had their room trapped last night. It's gonna be a big fat no, calling it now.

[ICECLIMBERS]

Also not surprised at all by Neasans' flip either.

[deferentsheep]

I slept peacefully.

Firstly, I'd like to ask everyone to avoid using confirmation bias while analysing what happened yesterday. By this, I mean that we must not use the fact that Akame flipped town to decide whether or not his lynch was justified.

I think that most of the Mafia were pushing against that lynch yesterday. This is because the evidence strongly supported Akame being Mafia, but the real Mafia knew otherwise. Their push against the lynch was very poorly reasoned, and in part based on their hidden knowledge that Akame was in fact innocent. The Mafia have motive to do this, because they know that they can make themselves look more town, and throw suspicion onto others, based on the fact that they defended confirmed (via death) town.

Yesterday, the Mafia were forcing hard a terrible, baseless, argument in defense of Akame, which happened to be correct despite the odds. There was never an absolute argument, because it was just based on what he said during the day, but it was a very strong argument. Not to mention how completely abysmal Akame's reaction to the whole thing was.

To start off with, the situation could not, in any way, have been said to have been favoring Akame being town. I'll restate the case to ensure that we are clear on this, because it's the foundation of my argument. Remember to avoid confirmation bias.

• Akame specifically said that he thought melanora was an Executioner or a Stalker, two night immune roles
• melanora claimed to have been attacked last night, and pointed out what Akame said in light of the fact that the Mafia would've thought that melanora was Executioner / Stalker
• Akame claimed Mate, and said that he investigated melanora last night, this is extremely coincidental and makes Akame look really bad

Here are many examples of this:
Spoiler:

There's nothing. I'm obviously not winning this argument and the town is just about to see exactly why I'm right.

Look how sure of himself he is. The argument is so swayed in favor of Akame being guilty that a town member could not hold this perspective with such confidence.

Well, I suppose I'll have to see what this situation is with the flip then. Either way, we'll know the truth of matter through this information lynch of sorts.

While I believe Akame over Mel, I think that either lynch today at least tells us something and the Akame lynch reveals more than a Mel lynch. While I don't exactly agree with this, I concede that it's the best from an information perspective.

I'll vote if I need to unless we have anything else to talk about?

The way that RockFire stresses that it is an information lynch suggests his intention to use the fact that Akame will flip town against town members who supported the Akame lynch.

Welp, this is officially the Bad Lynch of the day. Dork, you're going to eat your words on this (Akame could still be mafia but he's not the guaranteed liar here)

I think I'm hammering this, no? /vote Akame

He knows that it's going to be a bad lynch with excessive confidence, yet he still hammers it. This is because he is secretly supporting an Akame lynch, as he knows it's on town.

Who knows, maybe Mel is phantom.

OK, so if Akame is sheriff and Mel is non-immune neutral then oliy goes back to being a potential GF.

He keeps saying "maybe" and expressing a lack of confidence, but the fact that he even feels that mentioning this is necessary shows that he knows what Akame will flip.

If Akame is sheriff and especially if Mel is jester I'm going to have so much fun looking tonseemthwkr who pushed on Akame.

A pretty transparent insight into what ICECLIMBERS and the rest of the Mafia are going to try today.

ICE, I just think that Akame is telling the truth, but both could be lying, but I can't really see it being scum vs scum as they need to keep each other alive early game. They both could yet it's a very small chance that they both are as it's not a smart play if it's scum vs scum.

That's why I'm thinking only one is lying.

Town!RockFire shouldn't have thought that Akame was telling the truth.

If Akame is sheriff then the only roles I could only imagine Mel being are jester and NK. That would make it easy to win as jester, but a guaranteed loss as NK (which is why I want a vig to shoot Mel if we lynch Akame and he flips town).

And Rock at least one is lying, both could be.

Most "if"s, but when you look through his posts he's taking much more time to consider the possibility that Akame is innocent than the possibility that he's guilty.\

We know one is lying and I'm sure we'd rather all lynch the one that is yet we can't seem to agree. Both claimed roles we don't want to lose for specific reasons.

One's lynch confirms the other to either an alignment or a couple of roles. If we're going to lynch based on gaining information, one of these two needs to hang and the other will be known as either scum or Town. Listen, has Akame advocated a Mel lynch based on their results or an execution by Dork? Because that itself tells us a lot. I'd honestly rather lynch Mel because of how Akame is acting vastly different from CFM 5. I've said this point once and I'll say it again because I don't want a mislynch today.

I'd rather we get the right one today as much as anyone, but does everyone really think that the scummy person is always the liar? GFM taught me that Town cred is all that's need for a person to get away with blatant lies. That's why you should never believe anyone's softclaim or results. Anyone can be lying. Experienced or new, unbelievable or believable.

Town cred is all that's need for a person to get away with blatant lies.

okay

Why is Santa even going around suggesting that again? It does nothing to prove alignments as a Sheriff fakeclaimer can easily say Town or Mafia for framed as ICE said.

I honestly think that we can't just sit here and say we don't want to lynch someone because of what they claimed. That kind of apprehension is why Prot roles are a scum heaven when claiming. Same for Investigative but to a lesser extent since they need to give results.

Deferent, look at this from all angles. Just because one side seems more believe on the surface doesn't mean that it's what's actually true.

RockFire blatantly acknowledges that Akame looks innocent on the surface, but that's not actually the truth. There's no way that he would know "what's actually true", unless he's Mafia himself. For fuck's sake, this post alone is practically a scumslip.

I'm just saying that I'd rather lynch how I believe to be lying so that we don't have to loss a Townie unnecessarily. If we want to lynch Akame for the information lynch then I can only see that going one of two ways which are Exe or the Sheriff equivalent. That's the only thing that I can see happening anyway given what I know about how Akame plays.

And if we leave both alive for tonight, we're basically saying we have less than a day to find another target oily. We already know that one of the two is lying regardless so lynching one confirms the other as scum or Town.

Too much confidence in his belief that Akame is innocent.

And deferent, you sure seem convinced that my argument is garbage, but analyzing what's been going on, something is just off. Mindlessly agreeing on an Akame lynch because they claimed an invest role with results that go against another is what's not right. No matter the experience or the player, everyone has the chance to be scum. Neglecting one scenario and not thinking it through is why mislynches happen.

He already knows it's going to be a mislynch.

I honestly can't see Akame claiming that Mel is Neutral as any role besides Town considering the amount of scrutiny it caused them to come under in afterwards. I'm just saying that we should reasonably look at the situation from the perspective of plays an alignment would make.

Unwarranted confidence, etc.

Now that I actually read things, Akame was actually calling you neutral since the beginning of day 2 (literally in his "I slept peacefully" post). The problem is, unless Akame's a terrible executioner, she's more than likely right about you. This either puts her into actually being a sheriff, or being mafia, but it doesn't change the facts about you.

Hmm, I think I want to actually take a look at Akame's posts a bit more.

Consistent with what knowledge the Mafia have.

Man, I hardly even knew she existed until you started calling her out. And now that I HAVE read her posts, he's honestly on the right track.

Not a town perspective, also idk why I keep repeating the same comments after every quote, I'll just stop.

Just wondering, is there any reason Akame's on the chopping block except for her "results" on Mel? She hasn't been particularly scummy imo.

Not true, Akame has been incredibly scummy.

I'm back, and here we go, megapost time on Mel. Seriously, she is almost 100% NOT town.

Point 1: She was called out for white noise in the beginning of the day. By white noise she did one of two main things: post that Big List, and defend other people (mostly ronit). No effort to actually find scum, no effort to try to stand out from the crowd as a town. She was essentially trying to blend in.

Point 2: After she was called out, she almost immediately roleclaimed. And roleclaimed a Town Protective on that. If she was actually town, that would've been an extremely risky and frankly stupid move. She knows she could be the only TP in the game, and she reveals day 2. If she was actually bodyguard as claimed, she would know better than that. I might give her a pass if she was new (they tend to jump on claims) but she's not.

Point 3: (this is more role speculation) If you take the above to be true, mel has to be one of two things. The first is jester. Completely possible, but to be honest I think it's the least likely choice. The second is either Godfather or NK, who was either actually attacked N1 and was forced to claim early in order to stop the "Oh Mel's immune, LYNCH" talk that would have started after whatever deathnote showed up in the future.

Either way you look at it, Mel's not a bodyguard, and she's certainly not town. And if Akame is to be believed (who I didn't even notice claimed until Mel pointed it out :/), she's either NK or jester. As a result, I'd recommend execution, not lynching (unless Mel gives up the jester act, that is).

Now speaking of lynches, I have no idea who's a good target here. I'll have an idea soon, though.

This is assuming that we lynch Akame, which we shouldn't. I don't think it's a safe lynch.

Again, Mel could be jester and Akame could be sheriff...
I don't know what to think...

The Vigilante can't shoot night one so that wouldn't be a viable claim and why would a big take the risk of shooting someone without a good thought on their alignment?

Why was Mel so quick to accuse Akame of being Mafia instead of some other scum then? I'm just not seeing the reasoning behind why Mel thinks that Spretz and Akame are Mafia and that's why I'm believing Akame over them.

Akame has a tendency to jump to conclusions as Town which is why I believe them to be just that.

That sounded like a Mafia slip if I ever saw one
Rock he's not putting words in your mouth, look at what you said

They had last night phase to discuss and I'm sure that spretz, being the experience player that he is, would have told Akame to not sheep him and to not claim a role if they didn't have to.

Mafia would also have set up believable claims instead of just having Akame act rashly. When Akame was last Mafia, he didn't act as rashly as this and claimed Citizen when slightly pressured.

This is all hypothetically assuming they are Mafia anyway, which I doubt as you're all just convinced of one possibility. CFM 8 taught me to account for all contingencies and it helped me learn player patterns. The Mafia wouldn't be so unorganized with a veteran player. My point stands.

I honestly think this was a genuine scumslip.

Actually lynching a Neutral Benign or Evil is often considered a Mislynch.
We want to stop killers not harmless people.

Lynching non Town members is never a mislynch, but we should be prioritizing getting NK roles first as well as Mafia since lynching the rest isn't as helpful.

Shortcut, I'm not voting because I don't think Akame is scum and I believe they're Town. Mela would therefore have to be scum if I believe Akame is Town. (And yes, deferent, I meant this even though I didn't word it as well as I could have.) Mela has just rehashed the same act as always and while I tend to always act Pro Town even as scum to not get lynched, I feel like Mela feels a bit forced calling out other people as Mafia because they don't believe her and think she's scummy.

Can I ask why she thinks they're Mafia in depth then? Is it just because two people are accusing her? Because while that can be a Mafia tell, associations are much more stable than an all out accusation against one player. That's taking down two members if one gets caught and I doubt that Akame and Spretz would associate like this as Mafia together.

There's a difference here though. He would not call anyone out like this as Mafia, not if we use CFM 5 as a reference point.

And she "revealed" to get Akame lynched? Why would she even want to be jailed as a BG when she can do much more without being jailed? Just to tell Dork that she was attacked at night? It just seems much too convenient to me to believe it.

And Akame accused Mel of being Neutral before Mel revealed then? If anything, he's an Exe on Mela, which even then, is just a safe lynch for us that does nothing to help in the long run besides get rid of a potential non Town vote.

I'm just not seeing what the rest of you are seeing as Akame has the tendency to jump to conclusions as Town roles before. I get the feeling that we're on a crash course towards a mislynch right now.

Reading back, I have the feeling that Mel could actually be a Neutral. They're planning different than 7R sure, but Neutral encompasses many roles each with a varying play style. Hell, even NKs can be played differently and not everyone plays the same role twice. While I think that Akame may be jumping to conclusions by calling Mel two roles that are NKs, I personally believe that he's telling the truth about being a Sheriff and finding Mel as Neutral.

If Akame was Exe, I think that they would have called Mela mafia instead as that's a much more solid claim than neutral this game. I think that we're all making a big mistake here with not believing Akame as I'm having flashbacks to CFM 8.

Deferent has a point as Akame has a tendency to soft claim like that as Town. Look at CFM 8, Akame was a spy in that and they continuously soft claimed and that's why I thought they were innocent then and why I think they are innocent now.

Why would Akame do such a thing as Mafia? As Mafia in CFM 5, they were content to just fade into the background and not give opinions. The plays are just too different. I think Akame is telling the truth since claiming to be BG to cover up immunity is a common NK tactic when attacked and no one has the brass to lynch a Protective claimed because they might actually be that role.

I'm just seeing Akame being a scapegoat all over again in CFM 8 and deferent being so vocal with their opinion also makes me think they're Town.

Already starting his smear campaign, before Akame even has a chance to flip town.

It's pretty obvious deferent.
I don't think Akame is the ideal lynch for today.

So, FoS: RockFire, ICECLIMBERS, spretznaz, in that order. They have a very high chance of being Mafia.

Oily was going against an Akame lynch too, but he's such a terrible player anyway that this isn't a reliable way to read him.

p-edit: AND OH LOOK, WHAT DO WE HAVE HERE?

I was in Dork's pleasure house last night.

Spoiler: http://i.imgur.com/tlAgY9h.jpg

>BEING THIS OBVIOUS

I slept peacefully.
Rock, what's yor read on deferent?
Not surprised at all that Sam flipped town.
Will post more, on phone rn.

[Flamingkamikaze]

Also not surprised at all by Neasans' flip either.

So... Why didn't you mention that you thought Neasans was scum then?

[ShortcutButton]

ICE, are you "surprised" by melas claim?

[melanora]

OooOoo, I like this version of deferent. Very nice. You have your ducks in a row.

[spretznaz]

I slept peacefully.

That entire post just solidified your place at the top of my scumlist. More on that later.

Also yeah, I was jailed, but you REALLY don't want to pull that trigger too quickly m8

[LedropthaCurtain]

Defferent, let me make sure I got your statement correct. (your post was a little confusing) You think that the people who were defending Akame yesterday were defending him badly on puropose to push and Akame mislynch, and that these people are members of the mafia.

Did I get that right?

[deferentsheep]

I think that melanora is either a Jester or a Phantom who was not attacked on night one. Her suggestion that she could be lynched if her argument is unbelievable supports this. I doubt an Executioner seems likely considering how she just happened to get a target who investigated her night 1. She wouldn't be a Stalker / Secret Agent because playing how she did would be suicidal for such a role, she would've been far more careful than this. She couldn't have anticipated all this happening in advance if she was a NK.

I also do not think that melanora was attacked last night. The Mafia would have zero motive to attack melanora last night, and although there could be a Vigilante, she's probably just jesting. Either way, even if she's an Executioner, ignore her.

[ShortcutButton]

I slept peacefully.

That entire post just solidified your place at the top of my scumlist. More on that later.
Also yeah, I was jailed, but you REALLY don't want to pull that trigger too quickly m8

Wrong quote on deferent?
Or

Oooh

[deferentsheep]

Defferent, let me make sure I got your statement correct. (your post was a little confusing) You think that the people who were defending Akame yesterday were defending him badly on puropose to push and Akame mislynch, and that these people are members of the mafia.

Did I get that right?

Pretty much.

[ShortcutButton]

Also, deferent, claiming BG as an Exe is, in fact, suicide. It's almost going directly against your win-con. She cannot be an exe.

[SirCakez]

Another point I forgot to mention is Akame being Mel's target and Akame just happening to investigate Mel night one is too convenient of a target claim for me to believe.

[deferentsheep]

Also yeah, I was jailed, but you REALLY don't want to pull that trigger too quickly m8

The main reason I quoted that was for the "actually, I was right about everything" bit, but I guess the fact that you were jailed is also telling.

[melanora]

Lmao I was attacked but whatever. And my win con was to get Akame lynched any way possible... Look at that I did.

But that's cool. I'll be quiet until everyone shows up and you need me to update the list. And I'll vote with Dork.

[LedropthaCurtain]

Defferent, let me make sure I got your statement correct. (your post was a little confusing) You think that the people who were defending Akame yesterday were defending him badly on puropose to push and Akame mislynch, and that these people are members of the mafia.

Did I get that right?

Pretty much.

SirCakes also did not want an Akame lynch. Where would you place him on your list of Mafia likeliness? (I assume it's from highest to lowest)

[Santa07]

I sadly slept peacefully.

Neasans' role surprisingly makes a lot of sense now that you look at her posts.

I'm not believing Mela's claim one little bit. There needs to be way too much coincidence for that to be true.

[spretznaz]

So mel's argument is...that I actually wanted Akame lynched, but I pretended to defend him and did it badly so he would get lynched?

Shitton of mental gymnastics right there, but hey, gotta give her credit for originality

[ShortcutButton]

Spoiler: Akame - lynched D2 - Mate
SamuelJackson1972 - killed N2 defending Pork - Equerry
Neasans - killed N2 by Equerry - Secret Agent
deferentsheep - Slept Peacefully
Rockfire
RhazhBash - Transported
Flamingkamikaze - Slept Peacefully
ICECLIMBERS - Slept Peacefully
ShortcutButton - Slept Peacefully
melanora - ATTACKED (and apparently immune)
oliy
ronit - Slept Peacefully
Kindred
spretznaz - JAILED
SirCakez - Slept Peacefully
ADorkOfPork
milte345 - Slept Peacefully
Hiphoplog
LedropthaCurtain - Slept Peacefully
Santa07 - Slept Peacefully

[spretznaz]

Ugh...here's the deal. If mel isn't lynched today, someone (probably Dork) is dead at the hammer. I would THINK that what mafia would want today is obvious, but apparently some people might not get it. Think about it please.

[ICECLIMBERS]

@Shortcut add Dork as guarded since that's who Sam picked.
Also I love you Sammy even though you didn't protect me <3
RIP in Pieces Neasans Send us a postcard from Davy Jones' Locker!

Sam made one post yesterday that made him give me a leaning town read. It's him stating that his belief of Akame was not sarcasm; he believed the sheriff claim. I will not disclose why I figured Neasans was scum.

Also I told you guys to not lynch either Akame or Mel. :roll

ICE, are you "surprised" by melas claim?

Yeah. She stated that she was attacked twice? Good, we have a vig. Why didn't you even state that you had traps Mel?
I thought she was jester or NK. Maybe phantom.

I'll call you out on that. Let's see if anyone had their room trapped last night. It's gonna be a big fat no, calling it now.

*cough* you were jailed *cough*

Not sure if I should read that deferent, I've already stared at enough shit on this ship. I'll probably look at it later and post why it's comedic gold.

Also not surprised at all by Neasans' flip either.

So... Why didn't you mention that you thought Neasans was scum then?

I will not disclose that until I am ready to.

Also, deferent, claiming BG as an Exe is, in fact, suicide. It's almost going directly against your win-con. She cannot be an exe.

I am hesitant about Mel's claim but I remember in 7A stating that the executioner that scumslipped was likely GF just to cause chaos... I was framer, and I knew that my GF had been attacked instead. So yeah, I'm keeping my eye on anybody who instantly pounces on neutral claimants instead of showing a sane level of skepticism.

And I'll vote with Dork.

I'm hesitant about your claim but thanks for your loyalty to Italy. <3

So mel's argument is...that I actually wanted Akame lynched, but I pretended to defend him and did it badly so he would get lynched?

Shitton of mental gymnastics right there, but hey, gotta give her credit for originality

When did she ever defend Akame?

So many #POSSIBILITIES for today. Lovely /s

[ICECLIMBERS]

Unfortunately the Carpenter chose the wrong part of the ship today.

----
(insert irrelevant stuff here)

Oh, and the BB code for Possibilities in case anybody else wants it (this is mostly for my future reference)

Also I devote this to our dearest Neasans, who loved to use these in life and in (sweet, sweet) death <3

[color=#FF0000]#P[/color][color=#FF4000]OS[/color][color=#FFFF00]SI[/color][color=#00BF00]BI[/color][color=#0000BF]LI[/color][color=#000090]TI[/color][color=#800080]ES[/color]



[img]http://i.imgur.com/ap89yDT.png[/img] <--- :distracted:

picklereferee (for search purposes)

You're welcome.

[Hiphoplog]

I slept peacefully.
I don't know I actually somewhat think Mel is telling the truth but I don't know.

[deferentsheep]

Defferent, let me make sure I got your statement correct. (your post was a little confusing) You think that the people who were defending Akame yesterday were defending him badly on puropose to push and Akame mislynch, and that these people are members of the mafia.

Did I get that right?

Pretty much.

SirCakes also did not want an Akame lynch. Where would you place him on your list of Mafia likeliness? (I assume it's from highest to lowest)

Things like this make me feel like he could be put into the same category as Rock / ICE / spretz:

I do not think this is the lynch we should be making. I highly doubt Akame is mafia or NK for the reasons I have outlined already. If Akame is Exe this lynch doesn't get us anywhere with the rolelist and wastes a potential ally.

The only scum I could see Akame being is Exe on Mel. It really doesn't make sense for Akame to start pressuring Mel pretty suddenly as any other scum since there wasn't much pressure on Akame until he claimed. Why would scum claim and put themselves under a ton of scrutiny especially when they weren't being pressured?

Also note that Mate is not a Sheriff equivalent. It detects Town, Mafia or Neutral, so it's more accurate then Sheriff.

Dork question: What is your plan if Akame flips Town?

I'm positive at least one must be telling the truth and I think it's more likely to be Akame right now due to the likeliness of Mel being Jester as I outlined earlier. If Akame was scum the only role I think he could be is Exe as if Mel is killed and is Town he'll be outed as scum which is a rather large risk to take for Mafia or NK.

However, this post exonerates him to some extent:

That sounded like a Mafia slip if I ever saw one
Rock he's not putting words in your mouth, look at what you said

They had last night phase to discuss and I'm sure that spretz, being the experience player that he is, would have told Akame to not sheep him and to not claim a role if they didn't have to.

Mafia would also have set up believable claims instead of just having Akame act rashly. When Akame was last Mafia, he didn't act as rashly as this and claimed Citizen when slightly pressured.

This is all hypothetically assuming they are Mafia anyway, which I doubt as you're all just convinced of one possibility. CFM 8 taught me to account for all contingencies and it helped me learn player patterns. The Mafia wouldn't be so unorganized with a veteran player. My point stands.

It could be distancing, but I think SirCakez is less likely to be Mafia than the other three that I've already mentioned. I also think that he's more likely to be town sheeping off bad arguments than the other three.

[Hiphoplog]

Also I don't think Oliy is Mafia at all now.
Their actions day 2 is only possibly if they were a Town or neutral.