TFM5: The Heist - Robbers Win!

[iEsdeath]

So does anyone have an leads? *cough*Invest*cough*

[Swordsworth]

I slept peacefully. No leads from me, I'm afraid....

[iEsdeath]

No leads from me, I'm afraid....

Soft-claim Invest?

[Swordsworth]

No softclaims, just no information The investigator would be desperate if they want to out themselves this early on.

[direaxe]

There are a few ways we can look at Iggy's claim. Iggy claimed he was role blocked and robbed. It would be illogical for the mafia to both target him. So then it was the escort and robber that targeted him.

If this is not the case then he is either the jester or the robber was role blocked and he is trying to claim that he was robbed. Lets say that he was role blocked, then the escort would have to back him up and claimed that he role blocked Iggy. If the escort doesn't back him up then that means that the escort doesn't want to reveal or, Iggy lied. If he lied then Iggy is either Jester, or Mafia. Now if the escort backs him up, then the investigator should investigate him to see if the escort is possibly telling the truth. But this action would also make the investigator open to consort target.

[iEsdeath]

Well no one is going to die Just get robbed. xD I wonder what the Investigator would get robbed for anyways

[iEsdeath]

But the Invest would have to claim in order for Escort (Vendor) to not Rb him and for Consort to rb him...

[Swordsworth]

Well, I don't think reveals should happen quite yet. The more roles are revealed, the more people the mafia have eliminated from the chance of being banker.

[Greatplayer01]

Yeah, only deaths in this game are from lynches.
Now, regarding the leads:

Facts:
6 towns (Banker, "Escort", Investigator & 3 Cits)
2 mafia (Robber, "Consort")
1 neutral (Jester)

A lynch has:
6/9 chance for a town lynch
1/9 for jester lynch (insta-win for jester)
2/9 for mafia lynch
--------------------------
Total 7/9 chance for non-mafia lynch. This is not looking good.
And with no night kills, this can carry on forever until investigator reveals their findings.
So, we could either wait, but risk losing the game bc banker gets robbed, or sacrifice a member to draw more easily conclusions.

[iEsdeath]

Well, I agree with what you're saying and I say to just wait out the day and not lynch anyone. If we lynch someone who isn't Robber or 'Consort', we risk losing a Town vote and Mafia have better chances of finding the Banker. So, with that said, I believe we should call today a /nolynch day. That is if everyone PM'd their night actions to Invenio...

[iggyvolz]

If we don't lynch, mafia has a 1/6 chance of finding the banker. 2 players are mafia, and they already know I'm not the banker. We have a 2/9 chance of hitting mafia - we've got roughly equal odds of lynching mafia in a random-lynch as the mafia do of ending the game tonight.

We need to lynch.

[direaxe]

Heres what Iggy can be, Robber, Jester, or Civilian.

He could be Robber because -
He was role blocked and is trying to make it seem like he isn't the robber and that the escort made a incorrect choice

He could be Jester because -
He was not role blocked and he wants people to believe that he was. Make it seem like he is lying, or suspicious

He could Civilian because -
He was role blocked (by escort) and was also robbed

Right now I'm leaning more towards he being robber acting as if he was robbed.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now onto a different part.

Im starting to think Iesdeath is not a town memeber.

This is a game where we have to lynch targets, I agreed with no lynch the first day but the second day needs a lynch.

Death's statements about basically asking for leads brought some suspision to him.

He doesn't want to lynch anyone because by doing so would buy him time (if he was robber)

Now if he is jester though then he is doing a good job at it.

I think Iesdeath is mafie, more then Iggy. (this new section started after I saw his no lynch vote, Iggy's was before it)

/vote to lynch iEsdeath

[iggyvolz]

Couldn't I also be investigator? #possibilities

[Swordsworth]

Agh....Iggy please....not the #possibilities....

[direaxe]

Couldn't I also be investigator? #possibilities

Yeah you're right I forgot. You're not suspicious enough for me to vote you up.

[nighthawk101]

Yeah, only deaths in this game are from lynches.
Now, regarding the leads:

Facts:
6 towns (Banker, "Escort", Investigator & 3 Cits)
2 mafia (Robber, "Consort")
1 neutral (Jester)

A lynch has:
6/9 chance for a town lynch
1/9 for jester lynch (insta-win for jester)
2/9 for mafia lynch
--------------------------
Total 7/9 chance for non-mafia lynch. This is not looking good.
And with no night kills, this can carry on forever until investigator reveals their findings.
So, we could either wait, but risk losing the game bc banker gets robbed, or sacrifice a member to draw more easily conclusions.

Again, don't forget Banker.

So 5/9 chance for Town lynch, 1/9 chance for Jester lynch (and win), 1/9 chance for Banker lynch (and win), and 2/9 chance for Mafia lynch.

Also, iggy could still be the Diversion.

I'm still on the fence about lynching today.

[iEsdeath]

Now onto a different part.
---
Death's statements about basically asking for leads brought some suspision to him.

He doesn't want to lynch anyone because by doing so would buy him time (if he was robber)

Now if he is jester though then he is doing a good job at it.

I think Iesdeath is mafie, more then Iggy.

/vote to lynch iEsdeath

Well I only suggested for a no lynch because we have no information from the Investigator or if Sword is possibly Investigator after my comment about any potential leads, I don't really see nothing we can talk about...

[Greatplayer01]

Unless Invest reveals, it's dangerous to lynch. Maybe it could be worth it the lynch.

[direaxe]

In a game like this it's hard to have something to talk about. One reason I susp you is because of ending the day and get to the night. And give the robber more time

[iEsdeath]

Well with only 1 Investigator who isn't claiming and who potentially doesn't have any leads plus an Escort who is not revealing, we practically have no information except the odds of lynching a Jester, Mafia, or Town if we decide to lynch someone today.

[direaxe]

But in a game like this passing up on days is not good for the town

[nighthawk101]

But in a game like this passing up on days is not good for the town

^

We need information. Right now, our only source of information is other people's posts. Thus, we should discuss instead of risking the Mafia winning overnight.

[iEsdeath]

Ok, well, let's discuss. The most we could do is find out what the Invest found out last night, or if they found out anything important last night.

There are two things bad about Invest revealing however if they decide to share what they've found. Obviously, if the Invest were to reveal, they'd be likely to get role blocked by Mafia Consort. The other bad thing is that with Invest revealing, they lower Mafias possible rob targets.

[nighthawk101]

Ok, well, let's discuss. The most we could do is find out what the Invest found out last night, or if they found out anything important last night.

There are two things bad about Invest revealing however if they decide to share what they've found. Obviously, if the Invest were to reveal, they'd be likely to get role blocked by Mafia Consort. The other bad thing is that with Invest revealing, they lower Mafias possible rob targets.

Yeah, I'm against the Investigator revealing because it gives the Mafia one less target- more if they point out Citizens/the Vendor/the Jester. The Veinndor would only be one less target. However, as you stated, the Diversion would then have someone to roleblock.

I would be surprised if one of those two revealed today.

[direaxe]

I think it would be safe though for the vendor to confirm that they role blocked Iggy. Yeah that's one less rob target but then we have 2 people who are innocent.