SFM 75 | Revenge of the Waifus uPick | Corruption wins!

[heytheregirl17]

so did Scorpio catch Eragon or was he fpsing

[Jalandh]

I did some thonking, and I've looked through some MS games and I've looked through the last two SFM's including my own and majority of the time, suprisingly, the wolves are in the 3rd vote on the hammer dude. Not reliable of course but I just find it extra curious that two of my scum-reads are the 3rd for D1 and D2, call it confirmation bias because it probably is but it's funny.

Also I know Jal is green-checked, doesn't stop them from being evil.

Is greenchecked by someone basically confirmed town
helped push a maf lynch over the now confirmed town
still tries to find ways to shade me

[Cenvil2]

so did Scorpio catch Eragon or was he fpsing

Scorpio claimed, that they saw multiple visits.
If only Eragon was outed yet, I guess it's probably FPS.

[MichaelgRook]

Cenvil where did the mafia kill go N1 if it wasnt s0meone, because theres factional kill and multitasking so absolutely no reason the only kill shouldnt be credited to the mafia

[EvilDeanius0]

That's your problem.

If you can point a single reason why S0me0ne23 was shot by mafia, I will change my mindset.

But here is the main points which suggest they were not the mafia kill:
-Most people scumread him.
-His two main reads so far was absolute garbage. (Both cob and Chemist flipped green. Also his last mention on dota he said its probably town.)

If I were mafia, I would want him alive.
It is a perfect candidate for a mislynch.

My problem isn't you being wrong. My problem is your TMI

[Cenvil2]

im assuming the janitor is doing the kills now

Or probably there is no Janitor.
So I suspect more, that we probably have some self-clean/self-sacrifice in S0me0ne23's role.
(I still doubt he was directly killed by mafia.)

Also TP, Transport and such still can happen to mafia attacks, even if dota made the attack. (If we assume dota made the kill, RB and such are unlikely.)

[Cenvil2]

That's your problem.

If you can point a single reason why S0me0ne23 was shot by mafia, I will change my mindset.

But here is the main points which suggest they were not the mafia kill:
-Most people scumread him.
-His two main reads so far was absolute garbage. (Both cob and Chemist flipped green. Also his last mention on dota he said its probably town.)

If I were mafia, I would want him alive.
It is a perfect candidate for a mislynch.

My problem isn't you being wrong. My problem is your TMI

So making a logical assumptions are TMI now?

[EvilDeanius0]

That's your problem.

If you can point a single reason why S0me0ne23 was shot by mafia, I will change my mindset.

But here is the main points which suggest they were not the mafia kill:
-Most people scumread him.
-His two main reads so far was absolute garbage. (Both cob and Chemist flipped green. Also his last mention on dota he said its probably town.)

If I were mafia, I would want him alive.
It is a perfect candidate for a mislynch.

My problem isn't you being wrong. My problem is your TMI

So making a logical assumptions are TMI now?

I just find it weird nobody else realised it

[Cenvil2]

Because most people forget you ever existed after you die and flips green.

[Cenvil2]

Because most people forget you ever existed after you die and flips green.

And using Occam's razor, where they should not be able to.

[EvilDeanius0]

Because most people forget you ever existed after you die and flips green.

He hasn't flipped green

[Cenvil2]

And yet no one except me questioned his alligment...

[Varanus]

And I had three major diamonds.
One querter of the deck is diamond, but there is only 4 of each number.
Based on probabilty, it is still likelier to draw 2 of the same color, than 1 specific number.

You really haven't done much with probability before, have you?
I can assure you the flush draw you were aiming for was far more unlikely than me getting the 3 of a kind/2 pairs that I was fishing for

[EvilDeanius0]

And yet no one except me questioned his alligment...

I don't get if you get what I'm getting at

[Cenvil2]

And I had three major diamonds.
One querter of the deck is diamond, but there is only 4 of each number.
Based on probabilty, it is still likelier to draw 2 of the same color, than 1 specific number.

You really haven't done much with probability before, have you?
I can assure you the flush draw you were aiming for was far more unlikely than me getting the 3 of a kind/2 pairs that I was fishing for

I was not aiming for flush.
I was aiming for Royal flush.

[Varanus]

Assuming we pretend the other person's hand didn't exist
Your odds of getting the flush off of discarding 2 non-diamonds while holding 3 diamonds was only ~4.2%
My odds of pulling at least one more 10 after discarding 3 other cards and holding 2 10s was ~12.5%

And that's not even considering what my odds were of pulling an unrelated pair from those 3 cards
You got lucky as shit

[Varanus]

of course, game was rigged from the start for your royal flush since I was holding the 10 of diamonds

[Eragon1329]

oh yeah btw everyone who dota voted gets some towncred

Jalandh x2, Fenraiser, Chemist (f), htg x2 (angor), cenvil, michael x2, jackson x2, you (xd), s0me0ne (f)

sadge

so I'm looking at (ED Cenvil Debil) offwagon and (Michael, Eragon) on wagon
in order from most to least likely

p-edit oh ok so I guess we put ED on back burner

btw what is eragon supposed to be i dont get it

[Eragon1329]

btw what is eragon supposed to be i dont get it

eragon is a roleblocker but theres also apparently this side effect of being their target that keeps being alluded to

its a good side effect dont worry <3
I wouldn't do anything to harm you baka

[Eragon1329]

i have a sneaking suspicion of what waifu eragon is and if im right i will be very disappointed in him

my question is how do you NOT know what waifu I am

[Eragon1329]

Alright. Welp. I got a little information from various things. I think Var was really hoping for the off chance that I was lying. Interesting though, that he "cleared" someone else. Also Eragon? Wya bb?

?

[MichaelgRook]

i have a sneaking suspicion of what waifu eragon is and if im right i will be very disappointed in him

my question is how do you NOT know what waifu I am

is it not yandere girl?

[Eragon1329]

Also HTG being almost confirmed town, would Create a chain-reaction Jal being very likely to be town.
And give a bad view on Varanus. (It is not enough to SR them ATM though)

why is HTG almost confirmed town

I did some thonking, and I've looked through some MS games and I've looked through the last two SFM's including my own and majority of the time, suprisingly, the wolves are in the 3rd vote on the hammer dude. Not reliable of course but I just find it extra curious that two of my scum-reads are the 3rd for D1 and D2, call it confirmation bias because it probably is but it's funny.

Also I know Jal is green-checked, doesn't stop them from being evil.

are you actually pulling the dotastats move
are you serious

nah its actually kinda a thing that in theory wolves are more likely to be in the middle of a wagon(thirdish vote) because they don't want to put themselves out there as the starter of the wagon or as the person who hammers, and third vote is fairly safe where you can "push" it without being the initiator

the third vote wolf thing is definitely something I've heard before.

do I think its consistently accurate? no. but it has some potential.

[Eragon1329]

i have a sneaking suspicion of what waifu eragon is and if im right i will be very disappointed in him

my question is how do you NOT know what waifu I am

is it not yandere girl?

bruh

do you think im posting these Love is War gifs just for fun

[Eragon1329]

so did Scorpio catch Eragon or was he fpsing

brain go brrrrrrrrrr