Episode XIX | Mafia/Witch Win

[ryanyb]

Michael|6|roz, ryan, Chemist, Evan, Google, parker;heytheregirl|5|Phone, ladd, EvilD, Harper, Michael;HarperReed|4|MrChuckleteeth, dota, heytheregirl, Uzay;watchme|1|Ultii;Google|1|TheWabbit;Goomba|1|watchme

Not Voting: GrumpyGoomba

/vote parker

Most suspicious voter on Michael

And otherwise Chemist because he was roleblocked

This is another person that I think needs to die

Now that my VFM ended I can finally say that I think that Parker is playing very different tonally than they were during the VFM that just ended in which she was a town PR.
Whether she's cit or actually just scum, I dont think that this play from her is similar to her play in the VFM. And she was sharing tidbits via Discord with me about the VFM during the VFM about her thought process while she was submitting her night actions. I dont think that her play this game is similar whatsoever.

The bias I mentioned about Dota had to do with the fact that I was in the process of watching him deep wolf a game. And I don't think his play thus far is similar to what he had done during VFM.

[TrueGent]

Current Vote Count

Player	Votes	Voters
	#	Votes Until Majority

Not Voting: UzayAltay, Chemist1422, GrumpyGoomba, watchme1, Google, EvilDeanius0, roz1roz, xUltiix, parkerparkour, dota2reporter, HarperReed, EvanManManMan, ladd

[MrChuckleteeth]

Chuckle I'm not really following your logic here

How does you being roleblocked mean I was scum who was blocked taking the kill?

Because I'm not scum and there was no mafia kill.

[ryanyb]

there can be two escorts

[roz1roz]

I mean, let's fuel it up since I'm outed anyway.

I did not successfully protect anyone last night.

[Chemist1422]

Chuckle I'm not really following your logic here

How does you being roleblocked mean I was scum who was blocked taking the kill?

Because I'm not scum and there was no mafia kill.

I still don't follow

Two roleblocked claims does increase the possibility that one of them was the killing mafia, but if you know you're town then it shouldn't factor into it because the chance that the kill was blocked is only increased because the individual chances are increased

[MrChuckleteeth]

there can be two escorts

I'm not so sure about that.

[MrChuckleteeth]

Chuckle I'm not really following your logic here

How does you being roleblocked mean I was scum who was blocked taking the kill?

Because I'm not scum and there was no mafia kill.

I still don't follow

Two roleblocked claims does increase the possibility that one of them was the killing mafia, but if you know you're town then it shouldn't factor into it because the chance that the kill was blocked is only increased because the individual chances are increased

Chemist I know I did not make the kill and if there are two escorts then one of them likely hit a mafia. But I think there isn't and that consort roleblocked me because I softed my role yesterday.

[MrChuckleteeth]

Where is the other explanation for the missing mafia kill.

[Chemist1422]

Chuckle I'm not really following your logic here

How does you being roleblocked mean I was scum who was blocked taking the kill?

Because I'm not scum and there was no mafia kill.

I still don't follow

Two roleblocked claims does increase the possibility that one of them was the killing mafia, but if you know you're town then it shouldn't factor into it because the chance that the kill was blocked is only increased because the individual chances are increased

Chemist I know I did not make the kill and if there are two escorts then one of them likely hit a mafia. But I think there isn't and that consort roleblocked me because I softed my role yesterday.

This is gambler's fallacy

Let's say you know you're town

Escort #1 chance of hitting a mafia - 0/17, because you know you were town and you got blocked
Escort #2 chance of hitting a mafia - 4/17, not conditional on escort 1

Ignoring the consort thing because that's stupid

[Chemist1422]

Where is the other explanation for the missing mafia kill.

oh my god

[Chemist1422]

Town Investigative
Town Protective - roz
Town Killing - ryan - vig
Random Town
Random Town
Random Town
Citizen x7 - HTG/Michael/+5

Godfather/Capo
Mafia Support
Random Mafia
Random Mafia

Witch
Arsonist

[roz1roz]

Chuckle I'm not really following your logic here

How does you being roleblocked mean I was scum who was blocked taking the kill?

Because I'm not scum and there was no mafia kill.

I still don't follow

Two roleblocked claims does increase the possibility that one of them was the killing mafia, but if you know you're town then it shouldn't factor into it because the chance that the kill was blocked is only increased because the individual chances are increased

Chemist I know I did not make the kill and if there are two escorts then one of them likely hit a mafia. But I think there isn't and that consort roleblocked me because I softed my role yesterday.

Sigh...

I mean, that is consort most likely anyway, I did too much fuss with my read, but ehh... I'm not regreting it.

[MrChuckleteeth]

Chuckle I'm not really following your logic here

How does you being roleblocked mean I was scum who was blocked taking the kill?

Because I'm not scum and there was no mafia kill.

I still don't follow

Two roleblocked claims does increase the possibility that one of them was the killing mafia, but if you know you're town then it shouldn't factor into it because the chance that the kill was blocked is only increased because the individual chances are increased

Chemist I know I did not make the kill and if there are two escorts then one of them likely hit a mafia. But I think there isn't and that consort roleblocked me because I softed my role yesterday.

This is gambler's fallacy

Let's say you know you're town

Escort #1 chance of hitting a mafia - 0/17, because you know you were town and you got blocked
Escort #2 chance of hitting a mafia - 4/17, not conditional on escort 1

Ignoring the consort thing because that's stupid

You do realize that Escort #1's chances were still 4/17 but we know now they were 0/17. Escort #2 could have been the one to block me but it was possible that either one could have targeted either of us. The chances of 2 escorts hitting mafia is obviously higher than 1 escort hitting mafia.

Anyways I don't think there are two escorts. I claim RT1.

[Chemist1422]

Chuckle I'm not really following your logic here

How does you being roleblocked mean I was scum who was blocked taking the kill?

Because I'm not scum and there was no mafia kill.

I still don't follow

Two roleblocked claims does increase the possibility that one of them was the killing mafia, but if you know you're town then it shouldn't factor into it because the chance that the kill was blocked is only increased because the individual chances are increased

Chemist I know I did not make the kill and if there are two escorts then one of them likely hit a mafia. But I think there isn't and that consort roleblocked me because I softed my role yesterday.

This is gambler's fallacy

Let's say you know you're town

Escort #1 chance of hitting a mafia - 0/17, because you know you were town and you got blocked
Escort #2 chance of hitting a mafia - 4/17, not conditional on escort 1

Ignoring the consort thing because that's stupid

You do realize that Escort #1's chances were still 4/17 but we know now they were 0/17. Escort #2 could have been the one to block me but it was possible that either one could have targeted either of us. The chances of 2 escorts hitting mafia is obviously higher than 1 escort hitting mafia.

Anyways I don't think there are two escorts. I claim RT1.

It's not conditional

God okay hold on

[Chemist1422]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Read this and tell me that's not what you're doing

[Chemist1422]

Chuckle where was your soft

[roz1roz]

Comeon Chemist, it was obvious they are PR from the way they were playing, I even said it d1 several times.
Don't be surprised and you don't really need to know what RT.

Especially that even I only know more or less and don't feel the need to know more.

[Chemist1422]

Comeon Chemist, it was obvious they are PR from the way they were playing, I even said it d1 several times.
Don't be surprised and you don't really need to know what RT.

Especially that even I only know more or less and don't feel the need to know more.

no my brain's turned off today

and I do want to know if they're claiming escort or not and that's it

[parkerparkour]

SP

Jusf on lunch rn what’s happening

[parkerparkour]

Did htg just get vigged as cit two games in a row

[Chemist1422]

chance of mafia hitting witch/NK: 2/14
chance of killing mafia being roleblocked: 1/17

chuckle do you not see the problem here

[roz1roz]

Bayesian probability is one thing and the actual instance is other.

[MrChuckleteeth]

Do you think both me and Uzay are scum btw?

Sigh...

Okay, I will say it straight. "Scum or town PR".
I never really said it's scum reading, more like... role reading?
Obviously, don't confirm/deny it. I'm not feeling like pushing it yet either.

The point is both of you sounded like you have something to lose.
And that usually means having a role. Doesn't matter if town, mafia or neutral role.

I understood what you meant just fine, I knew you had a non-vanilla read on myself and Uzay, I just wanted you to answer the question.

Underlined is evidence that I already knew what roz was talking about, bolded is proof I wasn't denying the validity of the read.

[MrChuckleteeth]

chance of mafia hitting witch/NK: 2/14
chance of killing mafia being roleblocked: 1/17

chuckle do you not see the problem here

Sure I'll give you that.

What's your explanation for the missing KP then.