dota2reporter wrote:honestly mafia would probably just tell watchme to claim cit
I disagree.
Sigh. I didn't want to say this because it will make it easier for mafia to deduce who the real doctor is (assuming watchme is fake and this was a mafia play of course). But if I don't explain it you won't see the logic as to why I disagree and I feel that sharing this information is important.
Consider that the doctor is not watchme. They must know that watchme is scum by default. Since they know that watchme is scum, the obvious play would be to claim doctor and 'confirm' that watchme is scum. But claiming and 'confirming' that watchme is scum, doesn't really 'confirm it' (bare with me) given that watchme claimed that they were on the cop (meaning the "real doctor" could also be lying and be trying to kill the doctor!watchme), so there exists a world where both WWW is cop and watchme is doctor, and a mafia cc's doctor to bury watchme, essentially trading 1 for 1 (hoping that watchme gets mislynched before they do, leaving cop defenseless and forcing town to lynch confirmed scum the following day and give mafia another free night kill after the cop). 2 PRs are guaranteed dead, 1 scum is guaranteed dead, 5 towns are guaranteed dead by the start of day 4 (n2 cop dies, n3 town dies) if doctor gets mislynched here. If doctor doesn't get mislynched, then the either cop or doctor dies (it's honesly a WIFOM of whether doctor saves cop or not, and whether mafia kill cop or not because of this, and viceversa, the safer play for mafia is to kill doctor but it gives cop another result (which might be wrong if doctor decided to save cop so it's way safer for mafia), the riskier play is to kill cop because if the doctor doesn't save cop, cop dies before doctor, stopping them from getting an extra result, and doctor is almost guaranteed to die the night after, but if doctor saves cop then despite their result being useless, it stops a night kill and allows town to get another lynch off before the PRs which are also confirmed town die), and the other one dies the night after instead of a random townie. 2 PRs are most likely dead, 1 scum is guaranteed dead, 4 towns are most likely dead by the start of day 4.
So cc'ing in the real doctor's case is risky because they have to prove that they are the real doctor or else risk giving mafia a huge lead, and even then, mafia still gets some value out of them cc'ing watchme. Hence why I believe that the real doctor chose not to cc watchme in order to remain hidden and avoid a potentially disastrous scenario for town. Because if doctor isn't outed (on the assumption watchme is scum), that means that mafia can never have the guaranteed choice of killing between cop and doctor, and they just have to WIFOM between killing cop and someone else given they won't know who doctor will save, the cop or someone else, and they don't know the identity of the doctor, so they cannot go for the safe play of killing doctor first, they can only guess as to who the real doctor might be.
And even if real doctor also saved cop, they know regardless that watchme must be scum because they claimed doctor, so regardless of the real doctor's night action here, they know for a fact that watchme is scum, and are likely to adopt this mindset regardless.
So if the real doctor had knowledge that even when cc'ing and potentially being able to confirm that watchme is scum (if watchme gets lynched) they'd be outing 2 PRs for mafia and creating a WIFOM situation that is easier for mafia to choose from, and that they could risk being mislynched first and potentially giving away a huge lead to mafia, it'd be reasonable to assume that in this case, the real doctor wouldn't CC the watchme doctor claim.
The problem is that because no one has cc'd watchme, we can never be sure if the scenario I just described is the case or not, meaning watchme could just be the real doctor and mafia could be trying to bury him because of his bad play (I mean, given watchme's explanations and apparent night actions, it wouldn't be hard to convince the town that or whether the doctor would know that CC'ing watchme makes these events unfold. It's also hard to know whether that real doctor would choose not to cc despite the "obvious play" being to cc given they know watchme is confirmed scum. Or if they chose not to cc because of a completely different reason.
The reason why I said this makes it easier for mafia to find real doctor (assuming watchme is scum), is because now they can deduce that the real doctor, given they chose not to cc, would likely be in a pool of players who they would assume would choose not to CC doctor.
And because we don't know if watchme is actually doctor or not, we, on top of what mafia also has to deduce, have to consider a world where watchme is doctor.
But here's the proof that watchme is probably not doctor: IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE that doctor!watchme would save their scumread.
Basically, if someone else had claimed doctor that was on WWW instead of watchme, then watchme would have been cleared and 2 PRs would have been outed, but the mafia must have deduced that the doctor wasn't on WWW because no one claimed to be doctor on WWW (so like we deduced yesterday, that would imply that the cop's check is correct and that watchme was indeed scum). What do you do as scum when town agrees that the doctor was probably on someone else and that the cop's check is correct? Well, you make that red check claim doctor that was on cop of course, regardless of the reasoning for actually being on the cop.
And I believe that was the 1 thing that mafia didn't account for when they were trying to figure out what they should do about the red check on watchme: what reason would doctor!watchme have to save unclaimed WWW who was generally scumread and scumread by watchme?
Therefore I believe it's unlikely that mafia makes watchme claim citizen, as claiming citizen that has been redchecked by cop with no doctor claiming that they were on the cop implies that the cop's results are true and therefore that citizen claim is bullshit.
I need a break.
![[Forum Mafia XIX] Winner](./images/ranks/flair-fm19.png "[Forum Mafia XIX] Winner")
