SFM 60: Paranoia Mafia (Ending)

[MrChuckleteeth]

If a mafia flips then I think we should definitely end paranoia for the first time.

If the vote doesn't succeed then sorry and feel free to policy me after for the suggestion. I still think it's a good call though.

In fact maybe the mafia might all already be dead but I want to clear some POE before I come to that conclusion.

i kinda doubt that there are only 3 mafia, and i am almost confident there are more than 2

you have to think about balance from the start, not on how town played.

there are 16 players, right?

if this game is 14 v 2, thats literally unwinnable for mafia from a balanced standpoint.
if both mafia play godtier and town plays shitballs, yes its possible to win, but why do you balance it based on an unequal game such as that?

even a 13 v 3, for mafia to not have any means of killing town, seems low.
im willing to try a vote after we kill 3 mafia if i believe everyone else is town, but i hard hard hard veto any votes with 2 maf dead and think that there is probably 4 mafia and not 3

I choose to believe we're dealing with 4 mafia. I agree with most of the reasons you have given, especially from a balance standpoint.

I think 5 mafia is likely reaching a little far, and anything over that is inherently wolf-sided. So 4 mafia, in my opinion, is the most likely scenario.

[MrChuckleteeth]

Cenvil
Uzay

Chuckle
Eragon
Flake

Ed
Moon

/

/

If someone would like to sort through the middle pool that would be nice because that's a priority after today (should we not hit scum with this lynch and the game still goes on). I wonder out of Chuckle, Eragon, and Flake, whom people think is likeliest scum.

/vote EvilDeanius0

I want to veto shots in the top town of my readslist.

My vote puts Ed to L-3.

i think all 3 of us are town
I know im town
If chuckle flips town i might as well just quit life
Flake has been towny (even if im still angry he isn't explaining his cenvil read )

so if i had to make a choice between those 2, it would be Flake, but i don't think I'd lynch either of them unless it was confirmed a scum was in there

I'm inclined to agree.

ED/moon/Flake/Cenvil is what I'm looking at for lynches today, leaning more toward ED/Cenvil at the moment.

[MrChuckleteeth]

here's a fun concept

if someone has a significant chance of being vengekilled by voting someone, say >50%

how likely do you think it is that a wolf makes said vote

If they are deepwolfing, somewhat likely. Else, not very likely.

Though as more and more people are removed from the game, choosing not to vote or voting outside of the top wagon is likely a wolf-tell imo.

[MrChuckleteeth]

Unfortunately I think I'm going to have to replace out. I don't think I have enough time to dedicate to this game anymore.

I apologize.

[Cenvil2]

Did anyone make a case on Ed or it is a lynch of PoE?
(I found nothing through Trial phase 6)

[Cenvil2]

Also about your prev statement about other slips.
If you did not notice, I also voted Moon, Flake and FML from these reasons.
(T5, (anyone can be venged) T5, (it is impossible for Cenvil to know my alignment) and T2/T6 (the corrent case we talking about rn) respectivelly)

did i not make it abundantly clear that i was fishing for slips or

You did.
I answered Eragon here.

You still wrote down the statement btw.

what

You already know my view on scum signals.

[Cenvil2]

Also about your prev statement about other slips.
If you did not notice, I also voted Moon, Flake and FML from these reasons.
(T5, (anyone can be venged) T5, (it is impossible for Cenvil to know my alignment) and T2/T6 (the corrent case we talking about rn) respectivelly)

did i not make it abundantly clear that i was fishing for slips or

You did.
I answered Eragon here.

You still wrote down the statement btw.

what

You already know my view on scum signals.

what

IF
You are scum
AND
You believe there is at least one other scum except you, this statement (and the previous hypothetical ones) could be easily signals to give out your townclears without anyone suspecting a thing.

And you simply could just claim there were for scumhunting.

[Cenvil2]

As Eragon said.
Each of us have individual minds.
No one can read others mind so easily.
(how knows, maybe you saw my lynch is unavoidable (which it was the case from start of trial phase 2 to mid/late trial phase 5) and tried to gain towncred after my flip)

Although the possibility is very low, it is still there.

[Cenvil2]

also that would be a god awful way to signal

Did you see Multi's?
That had way less effort.

[Cenvil2]

/vote ED

[Cenvil2]

/vote ED

It's L-2, I think.

[FMLSheWas12]

If a mafia flips then I think we should definitely end paranoia for the first time.

If the vote doesn't succeed then sorry and feel free to policy me after for the suggestion. I still think it's a good call though.

In fact maybe the mafia might all already be dead but I want to clear some POE before I come to that conclusion.

i kinda doubt that there are only 3 mafia, and i am almost confident there are more than 2

you have to think about balance from the start, not on how town played.

there are 16 players, right?

if this game is 14 v 2, thats literally unwinnable for mafia from a balanced standpoint.
if both mafia play godtier and town plays shitballs, yes its possible to win, but why do you balance it based on an unequal game such as that?

even a 13 v 3, for mafia to not have any means of killing town, seems low.
im willing to try a vote after we kill 3 mafia if i believe everyone else is town, but i hard hard hard veto any votes with 2 maf dead and think that there is probably 4 mafia and not 3

I think 12v4 would be standard in a regular rolelist to distribute alignment.

In this rolelist, I think mafia have an advantage. It's easier to win, their associatives can't be caught, and (according to flips) most roles have no power. The only downside is not having a factional kill.

It makes no sense to balance the game like it's a regular mafia game.

[FMLSheWas12]

here's a fun concept

if someone has a significant chance of being vengekilled by voting someone, say >50%

how likely do you think it is that a wolf makes said vote

Not AI yesterday since we were pushing it, AI D1/D2, but I don't think AI enough to be a considerable factor, if that makes sense.

I'm still parking my lazy bum on ED for today thou tbh

Well wolves have died to vengeful consistently and it was preventable. It should have been apparent for Seth and Multi could have figured it out if he saw all the voters.

[FMLSheWas12]

I don't think the votecount reset but just to be sure (I have a vote on Ed already).

/vote EvilDeanius0

[FMLSheWas12]

I think moon should be voting Ed.

[FMLSheWas12]

here's a fun concept

if someone has a significant chance of being vengekilled by voting someone, say >50%

how likely do you think it is that a wolf makes said vote

Not AI yesterday since we were pushing it, AI D1/D2, but I don't think AI enough to be a considerable factor, if that makes sense.

I'm still parking my lazy bum on ED for today thou tbh

Well wolves have died to vengeful consistently and it was preventable. It should have been apparent for Seth and Multi could have figured it out if he saw all the voters.

it wasn't apparent for seth at the time he voted chemist at all

and multi being venged was not obvious

Oh you're right the vote was a bit earlier.

I think if Multi looked at all the voters at the time he'd be one of the priority vengeful shots. I'm not saying that's an obvious observation.

[EvilDeanius0]

here's a fun concept

if someone has a significant chance of being vengekilled by voting someone, say >50%

how likely do you think it is that a wolf makes said vote

If it's likely they'd be lynched if they didn't, they don't really have a choice so pretty likely. If they think they could get away with not voting them then they'd try that

Why are you assuming that it's likely they'd be lynched if otherwise?

It's true that one would be more likely to do this if they had a good chance of being lynched soon irrespective, though even then that's very questionable since wolves likely don't figure out the tell, and if they do, they'd have little reason to believe other people know of it specifically

But in a large amount of cases the person being potentially vengekilled will not be a likely lynch target any time soon

I'm not assuming I'm considering, hence the 'If'
It'd be like moon refusing to vote for me rn, It would make them pretty suspicious imo, so they would have no choice. Whereas if someone like Chuckle didn't want to vote me, to allow scummier people on the wagon, that would be less likely to be seen as a scum move and therefore they could do it safely as scum.

[Rickdaily12]

MrChuckleteeth has requested replacement. I'll be pausing the game again (due to the lower number of players and majority vote is required)

Roughly 7 hours remain.

At this point I'll also be inviting players to DM/PM me outside of the backup queue to join the game.

[Rickdaily12]

LOLingHyena will replace MrChuckleteeth.

Trial Phase 6 will now end on 6:45 PM CST, or about 7 and a half hours from this post.

[LOLingHyena]

IT'S HYENA TIME.

[LOLingHyena]

Okay, so just to keep myself organized, here's the living player list according to the first page:

1. UzayAltay (Maya Fey)
2. Eragon1329 (Pearl Fey)
3. FMLSheWas12 (Mia Fey)
4. moonbird (Trucy Wright)
5. EvilDeanius0 (Simon Blackquill)
6. Flake (Dick Gumshoe)
7. Cenvil2 (Kay Faraday)
8. LOLingHyena (Larry Butz)

[LOLingHyena]

Has anyone tried to analyse who could be the dead mafia's clears? I'm going through Multi's ISO at the moment, and his push on Dota early on seemed opportunistic enough that he might be one of his clears. In comparison, his push on Phone seems to be more of an OMGUS than anything, which makes me think Phone wasn't one of his clears.

[FMLSheWas12]

Has anyone tried to analyse who could be the dead mafia's clears? I'm going through Multi's ISO at the moment, and his push on Dota early on seemed opportunistic enough that he might be one of his clears. In comparison, his push on Phone seems to be more of an OMGUS than anything, which makes me think Phone wasn't one of his clears.

I think Cenvil was a clear of the living players and everything else is murkier waters.

[UzayAltay]

I am around here about one and half hour.

[UzayAltay]

/vote EvilDeanius

There is around 2 hour until EOD , and I got to go.