Ranked Elo Overhaul

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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Flake » Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:36 am

wozearly wrote:
Flake wrote:Yeah, I honestly wish I could make it so that the player's Elo is considered, but I can't see how I could do it while still maintaining balance. As an extreme example, say you are in Master Tier and are at a significantly higher Elo than the majority of players in Master. Since you play against Diamond, Expert and Master Tiers, the average player Elo will be significantly lower than yours. As such, after many games, you will lose quite a significant amount of Elo and be dragged towards the average Elo within Diamond, Expert and Master simply for having a higher Elo. The same extreme example could be applied to Bronze, where having a significantly lower Elo than everyone else means you are dragged up easily simply for having a lower Elo. The same effect happens in every tier but to a lesser extent.


Well, assuming that ELO is actually a relatively fair indication of the player's skill based on observable past performance, that dragging effect is arguably intentional.

If you are a better-than-average player facing off against worse-than-average opponents, you should be coming out with a better-than-average win rate - otherwise your observed performance is not in line with your current ELO, and your ELO should drop as a result. The same is true even if your own team are made up of worse-than-average players (although the impact would be much smaller for the high ELO player in this case, because the team's ELO is being averaged)

The most critical factor in this is that the importance of the ELO calculation modifying for self-vs-opponent ELO difference is correctly balanced against the importance of typical winrates for the factions. In a nutshell, to what extent would we expect a better player to overachieve in the long run against weaker opponents? How much influence do we think their skill has on average winrates, compared to luck of the draw and natural balancing in Ranked (ie, doesn't matter how good you are, you're not going to get a super-high winrate as NK in the long-term)?

This is where factors like 4*A vs 3*A would typically come into their own, as they effectively set the ratio of importance between the two factors. What's difficult is getting a feel for what is 'right' without access to the same stats that BMG have at their disposal - this is probably something the devs themselves would need to take a view on.

Mhm, I entirely agree. I personally feel like the only way to 'solve' these subjective issues is to have a "Trial and Error" Season, so the formula can be adjusted where necessary by direct observation. This way we aren't banking on the gain/loss formula being entirely optimal and risking an entire Season with a broken formula (remind you of anything?) Chances are, there will be things to change about it to make it better.

Thanks again for the feedback!
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Re: Elo Rework (POLL INSIDE)

Postby Flake » Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:38 am

Joacgroso wrote:Another suggestion: what about taking rolelists into account? Mafia shouldn't be punished too much for losing against a town with ret, 2 meds and a trans, but it could be more punished for a list with 3 RT spies, for example. Things like that could make the formula even more balanced.

I fail to see how this could really be implemented into the formula without it being overly complex. Otherwise, this would be a plausible idea, but then again it does question how balanced the game truly is.
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Re: Elo Rework (POLL INSIDE)

Postby Joacgroso » Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:41 am

It could be implemented if bmg used each winrates depending of the rolelist. For example, in the ww case, they could use ww winrate from their rank where there are X visiting roles.
Or maf's winrate for X rank if RTs are confirmable. It wouldn't be that hard imo.

PS: I just got 16 elo for winning as exe turned jester. That's ridiculously excesive. This sistem has to change.
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Flake » Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:12 am

I've decided to remove the poll since I feel the majority of people voting do not know in-depth what exactly this Elo Rework does and what it does differently to the current Elo System.
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Jackparrot » Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:20 am

Flake wrote:I've decided to remove the poll since I feel the majority of people voting do not know in-depth what exactly this Elo Rework does and what it does differently to the current Elo System.


Translation: I did not like the result of the poll
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Joacgroso » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:04 pm

Were there too many "no" votes? I don't really remember.
What I understand about this is that it would increase the amount of elo gained/lost, instead of forcing players to play lots of games in order to rank up, even if they are not good at all, which is the main reason I supported it. The only problems I see is that it ignores players who die n1 and other actions like voting/visiting, but I except for that it's a good sistem.
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Flake » Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:34 pm

Jackparrot wrote:
Flake wrote:I've decided to remove the poll since I feel the majority of people voting do not know in-depth what exactly this Elo Rework does and what it does differently to the current Elo System.


Translation: I did not like the result of the poll

What? The overwhelming majority of the votes were "Yes" (about 70%) or "Not Sure" (about 20%), so no. I was expecting more "No" votes if anything. Please don't make a rude remark if you have no idea what you're talking about.

As I've stated, I now feel a poll is useless because the majority of the people reading this do not read all of it and therefore do not understand every variable in it's entirety. I'm only really interested in the opinions of those who have an in-depth understanding of what I'm talking about, which surely is understandable given the complexity of this Rework.
Last edited by Flake on Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Flake » Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:37 pm

Joacgroso wrote:Were there too many "no" votes? I don't really remember.
What I understand about this is that it would increase the amount of elo gained/lost, instead of forcing players to play lots of games in order to rank up, even if they are not good at all, which is the main reason I supported it. The only problems I see is that it ignores players who die n1 and other actions like voting/visiting, but I except for that it's a good sistem.

No - the overwhelming majority of votes were "Yes" or "Not Sure", see my above comment.

I'm currently trying to think of a suitable way to implement the two variables you've stated (N1 deaths and other actions), so hopefully that becomes a thing soon :)
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Joacgroso » Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:42 pm

Thanks! You are a genious!
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby wozearly » Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:07 pm

Joacgroso wrote:Were there too many "no" votes? I don't really remember.
What I understand about this is that it would increase the amount of elo gained/lost, instead of forcing players to play lots of games in order to rank up, even if they are not good at all, which is the main reason I supported it. The only problems I see is that it ignores players who die n1 and other actions like voting/visiting, but I except for that it's a good sistem.


1a) ELO gain/loss was increased, particularly for the earlier games in the season, to speed up direction of travel towards someone's "correct" ELO rating. ELO gain/loss for each particular game was also more significant outside of this period.

2) Although unless you're winning or losing far above average, this effect was actually fairly slight because...

3) This system seeks a mathematical balance by slaving the calculation to tier and faction average win rates, meaning grinding ELO is not really possible, forcing you to have to regularly outplay your peers to rise in ELO

4) The system is fundamentally self-balancing, and would be able to cope and automatically adjust for changes to winrates caused by new or amended roles, changes in the meta, etc.

5) It attempts to account for oddities in faction ELO averaging that created some undesirable funky side-effects, but introduces alternative undesirable (IMO) funky side-effects for solo factions (i.e. most neutrals)

6) People will now be rewarded less strongly, in comparison to other factions, for Town wins.

7) People will now be punished more severely, in comparison to the current setup, for losing as NE and NK.
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby wozearly » Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:13 pm

Flake wrote:This way we aren't banking on the gain/loss formula being entirely optimal and risking an entire Season with a broken formula (remind you of anything?).


Which season were you referring to?

Legacy, with the broken calculation that trended higher ELO players to even higher ELO and lower ELO players to even lower ELO, and gave Exe-Jesters a mysteriously fixed ELO win of +16?

Or Season 1, with the broken calculation that didn't correctly incur an ELO loss when players left the game early, allowing for open gaming of the ELO calculation?

Think you kinda proved your point either way. :(

*sigh*
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Flake » Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:34 pm

wozearly wrote:
Flake wrote:This way we aren't banking on the gain/loss formula being entirely optimal and risking an entire Season with a broken formula (remind you of anything?).


Which season were you referring to?

Legacy, with the broken calculation that trended higher ELO players to even higher ELO and lower ELO players to even lower ELO, and gave Exe-Jesters a mysteriously fixed ELO win of +16?

Or Season 1, with the broken calculation that didn't correctly incur an ELO loss when players left the game early, allowing for open gaming of the ELO calculation?

Think you kinda proved your point either way. :(

*sigh*

Either really, hahaha
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Flake » Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:04 pm

Bump
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Flake » Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:54 pm

blop
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Joacgroso » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:47 pm

Did you know there is already a bump feature?
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Flake » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:51 pm

Joacgroso wrote:Did you know there is already a bump feature?

No I didn't :O
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Flake » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:27 pm

Joacgroso wrote:Did you know there is already a bump feature?

How do you bump the topic without posting?
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby BasicFourLife » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:26 pm

Flake wrote:
Joacgroso wrote:Did you know there is already a bump feature?

How do you bump the topic without posting?

Bottom Left corner there should be a button next to the “Subscribe Topic”
If Shapesifter13 tells you that your suggestion will be considered, it never will.
If you’re making a post, thinking you’re gonna impact the game, you won’t.
If you make an another fucking thread about the poor state of the game, you should move on.
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Flake » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:31 am

BasicFourLife wrote:
Flake wrote:
Joacgroso wrote:Did you know there is already a bump feature?

How do you bump the topic without posting?

Bottom Left corner there should be a button next to the “Subscribe Topic”

I just see "Board Index", "Un/Subscribe Topic" and "Bookmark Topic", but nothing else. :(
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby BasicFourLife » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:47 am

Flake wrote:
BasicFourLife wrote:
Flake wrote:
Joacgroso wrote:Did you know there is already a bump feature?

How do you bump the topic without posting?

Bottom Left corner there should be a button next to the “Subscribe Topic”

I just see "Board Index", "Un/Subscribe Topic" and "Bookmark Topic", but nothing else. :(

In my experience it exists in Suggestions and doesn’t in Role ideas. So yeah I dunno
If Shapesifter13 tells you that your suggestion will be considered, it never will.
If you’re making a post, thinking you’re gonna impact the game, you won’t.
If you make an another fucking thread about the poor state of the game, you should move on.
If you suggest that Firefighter be added to the game or the fact that Retributionist should die when they resurrect, I will personally murder you instead.

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Re: Elo Rework

Postby BasicFourLife » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:48 am

Flake wrote:
BasicFourLife wrote:
Flake wrote:
Joacgroso wrote:Did you know there is already a bump feature?

How do you bump the topic without posting?

Bottom Left corner there should be a button next to the “Subscribe Topic”

I just see "Board Index", "Un/Subscribe Topic" and "Bookmark Topic", but nothing else. :(

In my experience it exists somewhere dun member and somewhere it doesn’t. So yeah I dunno
If Shapesifter13 tells you that your suggestion will be considered, it never will.
If you’re making a post, thinking you’re gonna impact the game, you won’t.
If you make an another fucking thread about the poor state of the game, you should move on.
If you suggest that Firefighter be added to the game or the fact that Retributionist should die when they resurrect, I will personally murder you instead.

FM / TG: 5 - 10 - 8
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Re: Elo Rework

Postby Flake » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:41 pm

Flake wrote:How do you bump the topic without posting?

Anyone know?
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Re: Ranked Elo Overhaul

Postby Shilster » Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:54 pm

If your thread is inactive, there's an option called "Bump topic" on the very bottom of the page.
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Re: Ranked Elo Overhaul

Postby BasicFourLife » Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:33 am

The bump button apprars after your tread has been inactive for +5 days.

Gooose wrote:Bumping may only take place after your thread has been inactive for 5 days, if you send a bump before 5 days then it will be considered as a double post, which is considered spamming.
If Shapesifter13 tells you that your suggestion will be considered, it never will.
If you’re making a post, thinking you’re gonna impact the game, you won’t.
If you make an another fucking thread about the poor state of the game, you should move on.
If you suggest that Firefighter be added to the game or the fact that Retributionist should die when they resurrect, I will personally murder you instead.

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Re: Ranked Elo Overhaul

Postby Aviel » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:59 pm

I personally think that having 20 placement games would be too much, maybe 15 would do?

Otherwise I /support.
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