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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:17 am
by HAWAIIANpikachu
Interesting. Very interesting data.

I mean it's from reports so we might want to take cheating into some account as well but this is interesting to have as a base line

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:26 am
by Brilliand
There's probably some skew from the "only games in which a report occurred" selection bias, but it's probably fair to assume that that's not too severe.

Superalex11 wrote:In ranked-rolelist games, town wins 54%, mafia 33%, and nk 11%. The rest are draws.


That's a lot closer to my "ideal" numbers than I expected. Just needs a small boost to NK winrate at the expense of Town.

Superalex11 wrote:In ranked-rolelist games, NK winrate order is ww, arso, sk.


...and that's definitely not what the folks over in Role Ideas were expecting. (I think the most commonly-guessed order was SK>WW>Arso.)

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:29 am
by Superalex11
HAWAIIANpikachu wrote:I mean it's from reports so we might want to take cheating into some account as well but this is interesting to have as a base line

The above, but also excluding guilty cheating reports: (Edit: Removed, fixed in future post)

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:36 am
by HAWAIIANpikachu
Superalex11 wrote:
HAWAIIANpikachu wrote:I mean it's from reports so we might want to take cheating into some account as well but this is interesting to have as a base line

The above, but also excluding guilty cheating reports: https://i.gyazo.com/5f06166e46f4dc0d04f ... 58c767.png

This is probably the most reliable way we can use reports to check winrates without including other advantages/disadvantages using reports. Thank you madlad for doing this

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:05 am
by Superalex11
Ok so I did a dumb and didn't actually go through all P2P reports, just 2020's. Made the fix, and also excluded guilty MA+Leaving reports since they line up with the idea of cheating and GT:

Image

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:35 am
by Royee
witch's winrate appears to be very low in rp and ranked.

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:48 pm
by OreCreeper
Royee wrote:witch's winrate appears to be very low in rp and ranked.

Yes because witch wins aren't really supposed to happen, they are supposed to win with other evils.

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:54 pm
by Royee
OreCreeper wrote:
Royee wrote:witch's winrate appears to be very low in rp and ranked.

Yes because witch wins aren't really supposed to happen, they are supposed to win with other evils.

oh I was mistaken

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:20 pm
by HAWAIIANpikachu
Superalex11 wrote:Ok so I did a dumb and didn't actually go through all P2P reports, just 2020's. Made the fix, and also excluded guilty MA+Leaving reports since they line up with the idea of cheating and GT:

https://i.gyazo.com/6c181f295c20faa09ee ... 248422.png


Quick stats for simplicity.

Town has about ~52% win rate

Mafia has about ~36% win rate

NK in total has about ~10% win rate

Still about ~2% of games are draws/stalemates/solo NE wins

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:02 pm
by cob709
tbh the game shouldn't be about win rates.

it should be about player skill and strategy
each faction should have equal chances of winning

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:18 pm
by HAWAIIANpikachu
cob709 wrote:tbh the game shouldn't be about win rates.

it should be about player skill and strategy
each faction should have equal chances of winning

i mean you also have to think about win rates being connected to balance and stuff. I would be worried if the NKs we doing better than the team of evils with communication and knowledge but that's clearly not the case.

Of course beyond winrates some roles need to be buff/changed anyways.

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:21 am
by SkorumpowanyGlut
SK change about killing 2 people is terrible.

WW change is boring and too late game oriented. Why not implement this rework instead?

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:47 am
by Superalex11
Here's some more data, now looking at just ranked, sorting wins based on the NK present. Again, these go through all P2P reports and exclude guilty GT, MA, cheating, and leaving.
Image
So, put simply:
In ranked games with an arso, town wins 52.64%, mafia wins 34.98%, and the arso wins 10.08%.
In ranked games with a ww, town wins 51.83%, mafia wins 35.18%, and the ww wins 11.04%.
In ranked games with an sk, town wins 50.83%, mafia wins 37.37%, and the sk wins 9.84%.

I think this shows nicely where the public perception of sk>ww>arso comes from, as that ordering is true from town's perspective.

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:23 am
by HAWAIIANpikachu
Alright. Now some stuff is starting to make sense about why most people think SK > WW > Arso but winrate says another way. Glad we're all not insane

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:21 am
by BasicFourLife
HAWAIIANpikachu wrote:
Superalex11 wrote:Ok so I did a dumb and didn't actually go through all P2P reports, just 2020's. Made the fix, and also excluded guilty MA+Leaving reports since they line up with the idea of cheating and GT:

https://i.gyazo.com/6c181f295c20faa09ee ... 248422.png


Quick stats for simplicity.

Town has about ~52% win rate

Mafia has about ~36% win rate

NK in total has about ~10% win rate

Still about ~2% of games are draws/stalemates/solo NE wins

I highly doubt this guy has 200k+ games played unless I’m understanding the graphic wrong because it’s utterly confusing.

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:31 am
by ScarfVendetta
BasicFourLife wrote:I highly doubt this guy has 200k+ games played unless I’m understanding the graphic wrong because it’s utterly confusing.

He is using Trial System reports as the basis for his data.

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:37 am
by oddluck
Ok one question. If Escort targets SK and gets a blood soaked will at the same time that Mafia and Janitor target Escort and clean them. Does it clean the blood off the will?

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:08 am
by Freechancer
A cleaned person's will is not shown in the first place, so if they were to implement it literally, there should be no indication they died rbing the sk (except that sk will probably have killed two people, which would make it very obvious).
If you meant if jani could still see their will then I guess they would but is a good question.

I'm fairly certain sk attacks all roleblockers so sk killing multiple people in a single night has been a thing, though this is different, of course. On the other hand, this will just promote escort coordinating with a confirmed townie (which is a good thing) so the extra kill is a bigger deal both for sk and town. It's not like escort (or even consort) is supposed to rb "at random", so it's not very clear what this is supposed to "solve". Unless you meant to make sk more noob-friendly and better in all any.

It does puzzle me how come sk is the nk that helps maf more than themselves. I imagine they would have to be hanged more often as they should be best at keeping the balance.

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:06 am
by HAWAIIANpikachu
SK is more likely to be found out and 1 KPN means it is always a threat to town for a lynch target. WW can at the very least have (against a known invest) a sheriff claim compared to SK's doctor claim which would be auto susp if there's a lookout with jailor meta or any confirmed town. (Although WW would be just as likely doomed in the long run)

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:14 am
by ydnnek
Superalex11 wrote:Here's some more data, now looking at just ranked, sorting wins based on the NK present. Again, these go through all P2P reports and exclude guilty GT, MA, cheating, and leaving.
So, put simply:
In ranked games with an arso, town wins 52.64%, mafia wins 34.98%, and the arso wins 10.08%.
In ranked games with a ww, town wins 51.83%, mafia wins 35.18%, and the ww wins 11.04%.
In ranked games with an sk, town wins 50.83%, mafia wins 37.37%, and the sk wins 9.84%.

I think this shows nicely where the public perception of sk>ww>arso comes from, as that ordering is true from town's perspective.


Curious, how did you grab these 200k reports quickly?
I'd like to perform some own analyses in R as well.

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:33 am
by Confectionery
OH, about buffing Juggernaut too.

Give him an investigator result as well.

I think BG/GF/Arso/Crus/Juggernaut would fit rather nicely.

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:42 am
by Robbytherobot
I feel that sk should not be given more KPN already sk games move too quickly, personally I like it when mafia gets majority day 5 or 6 not on day 3 or 4.

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:59 am
by ZedKiller13
I’m honestly dumbfounded on how people think the SK change is horrible still, when it literally only gives SK a situational advantage that can deal heavy damage quickly.

SK will still remain heavily counterable on all sides and this virtually unchanges it, so why would you be against it?

The Werewolf literally relies on winning late game anyway. This change increases their kill power quickly and causes town to think quickly. I’d say putting a time-bomb in Ranked might be better since it’ll pressure the Town early before people start really dying off quick already combined with the Mafia.

The Arsonist change simply allows for more opportunity to get kills in and to produce strategies to adapt to it.

These buffs all passively help each role. The role itself remains unchanged and its abilities remain the same, and thinking up ways to modify NK roles specifically for that is pretty tough.

People I see having issues with these changes seem to be wanting an entire role rework on the mind, but that is completely unrelated to the buffs in general.

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:08 am
by Confectionery
Also, I don't see the issue with the Arsonist buff.

Giving him Plaguebearer properties is an excellent idea, and the people who complain about it are upset that they can't win frequently as Town anymore if these buffs are introduced.

Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:47 am
by FrenchyTheSphee
I really like all the buffs especially the Arsonist buff the most, since it kills the Jailor tp lo meta.

Also love the Lookout nerfs, this allows mafia to legit claim spy/doc/bg/escort/lookout and just say that they all visited jailor which would be over 7 visits and would be too messy for lookouts.

WW buff is also nice, just gives him a bit of an emph to his damage.

Even with the Serial killer buff, I feel like Serial killer will be the worst NK where before he was the best NK. After this patch, Serial killer will definetally need another buff in the future, but lets see how this folds on.

Either way, the pace that the updates are coming out is amazing. If this continues on the game will definetally revitalize and become a whole lot better.

Here are some quick roles that need to be changed in the future for you to decide which one to pick in the next patch:

Buffs:

Blackmailer(Just a tiny buff), Retributionist (funny seeing this guy on the buff list)

Nerfs:

Mayor, Transporter, Jailor

Reworks:

Consig, Spy, Medium, Disguiser (or instead of reworking you can buff), Forger (Just give him Blackmailers whisper ability), Framer and last but not least MAFIOSO change this guy he is so trash