Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby OreCreeper » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:57 pm

Achilles wrote:Update on what we are working on and the plans for our next patch:

Lookout will be limited to seeing only 3 visiting roles per night.
Psychic will work the same but not have its alternating nights tied into full moon nights.
Lookout change seems unnecessary. I would rather just make LO an unique role so you don't get 4 lookout games since those can get annoying.
Neutral Killing Buffs
SerialKiller will not be stopped from attacking it's target by roleblocks. This allows for a double kill (the roleblocker and the SK target being attacked in the same night). Additionally when a SerialKiller kills a roleblocker, the last will of the roleblocker will be covered in blood, preventing it from being readable.
This is too broken lol, haven a potential 2 kpn for a role that can kill independently every night is ridiculously OP when coupled with the factional mafia nightkill. It can potentially make town lose majority by d2 in certain cases.
Arsonist will now passively gas douse anyone who visits them. Arsonist will also now get feedback about who is gas doused (similar to plaguebearer).
Please don't do that. The better way to fix arsonist is to just give it RB and control immunity/only when igniting, but make it also douse role-blockers. This also doesnt counter arsonist's biggest late game enemy- the consort, who can completely shut the arso down.
Werewolf - After night 4 every night will be a full moon night
Just make it so it gets Powerful defense on full-moon nights so it can bypass TPs. Werewolves usually dont live that long so this change affects very few ranked games.
Juggernaut - Juggernaut will now have basic defense. Rampaging and Unstoppable attack upgrades now require 1 less kill to unlock.

I've never played jugg before so not gonna judge this.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby TheHats » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:02 pm

Stop trying to nerf town, *Since town has the most people they also should win the most*. 9/15 wins should be town in ranked. Thats a reasonable win rate for town. only 4/15 games should be won by mafia, and only 1/15 by NK. NE messes with it a bit but *town being able to win isn't a problem*
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby OreCreeper » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:09 pm

OreCreeper wrote:
Achilles wrote:Update on what we are working on and the plans for our next patch:

Lookout will be limited to seeing only 3 visiting roles per night.
Psychic will work the same but not have its alternating nights tied into full moon nights.
Lookout change seems unnecessary. I would rather just make LO an unique role so you don't get 4 lookout games since those can get annoying.
Neutral Killing Buffs
SerialKiller will not be stopped from attacking it's target by roleblocks. This allows for a double kill (the roleblocker and the SK target being attacked in the same night). Additionally when a SerialKiller kills a roleblocker, the last will of the roleblocker will be covered in blood, preventing it from being readable.
This is too broken lol, haven a potential 2 kpn for a role that can kill independently every night is ridiculously OP when coupled with the factional mafia nightkill. It can potentially make town lose majority by d2 in certain cases.
Arsonist will now passively gas douse anyone who visits them. Arsonist will also now get feedback about who is gas doused (similar to plaguebearer).
Please don't do that. The better way to fix arsonist is to just give it RB and control immunity/only when igniting, but make it also douse role-blockers. This also doesnt counter arsonist's biggest late game enemy- the consort, who can completely shut the arso down.
Werewolf - After night 4 every night will be a full moon night
Just make it so it gets Powerful defense on full-moon nights so it can bypass TPs. Werewolves usually dont live that long so this change affects very few ranked games.
Juggernaut - Juggernaut will now have basic defense. Rampaging and Unstoppable attack upgrades now require 1 less kill to unlock.

I've never played jugg before so not gonna judge this.


Tbh I would rather increase NK survivability than just make it "jUsT kIlL eVeRyOnE" which seems to be the mentality of these changes.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby GreekGodSudura » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:29 pm

TheHats wrote:Stop trying to nerf town, *Since town has the most people they also should win the most*. 9/15 wins should be town in ranked. Thats a reasonable win rate for town. only 4/15 games should be won by mafia, and only 1/15 by NK. NE messes with it a bit but *town being able to win isn't a problem*


Proportional winrates are for morons who demand participation trophies. Go home.

5/15 for all.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Superalex11 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:36 pm

TheHats wrote:Stop trying to nerf town, *Since town has the most people they also should win the most*. 9/15 wins should be town in ranked. Thats a reasonable win rate for town. only 4/15 games should be won by mafia, and only 1/15 by NK. NE messes with it a bit but *town being able to win isn't a problem*

In order to combat elo inflation, no majority faction should have >50% winrate. So unless BMG has plans to change the elo system entirely, (and assuming they do wish to address elo inflation) I don't think they're aiming for a town winrate of 9/15.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby TheHats » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:05 pm

So on average people are supposed to *lose more games than they win* to combat elo inflation?
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Superalex11 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:11 pm

TheHats wrote:So on average people are supposed to *lose more games than they win* to combat elo inflation?

...well, in ffa games with more than 2 players (where only 1 wins), that should be self-evident...
But maybe the analogy to ToS isn't so obvious, so I'll explain:

The expected elo change of an average player in a game is equal to the sum of all changes resultant of possible outcomes multiplied by the probabilities of those outcomes. I.e.:
Image

The goal should be to set this equation to 0, meaning 0 net elo change (no inflation or deflation). When factoring in that the probability of winning varies with faction, and the probability of being on a particular faction varies, you'll find that things get a bit more difficult. So if you're really interested, ask, but otherwise I'll leave the remaining math out of this.

The ultimate takeaway is that if any particular faction has P>0.5 odds of winning AND P>0.5 odds of being your faction, the math holds that your odds of winning at all is >0.5, meaning unless elo gains/losses get crazily skewed, it will naturally inflate.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby cob709 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:15 pm

TheHats wrote:Stop trying to nerf town, *Since town has the most people they also should win the most*. 9/15 wins should be town in ranked. Thats a reasonable win rate for town. only 4/15 games should be won by mafia, and only 1/15 by NK. NE messes with it a bit but *town being able to win isn't a problem*

Each faction should gave an equal opportunity to win based on skill and strategy, not luck and chance.

The Mafia should be able to take out town and survive using deception.
The Town should be able to expose mafia before they do so.
NKs should be able to take down both factions without letting one get more powerful than the other.
NEs should be coordinating with other Evils to accomplish each other's goals.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Venusupreme » Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:46 pm

Good changes for WW, Jugg, and Psychic.

Arso would be good, if not for the fact that dousing the Witch upon being visited means that witch cannot side with arso anymore in ranked. I believe that arso should have the option to stay home and douse visitors instead of going out to visit. That way they won’t kill a witch who visits them.

SK being able to kill the escort/consort and STILL kill their original target is kinda OP. I’d keep the last will being destroyed, but get rid of their killing 2 people.

Lookout should not be an RNG based role. If you’re not willing to get rid of d1 chat (which is understandable) then give forger another ability to serve as a mafia lookout instead of forging a will if they so choose. This makes LO much harder to confirm and makes it much easier for mafia to learn of any TPs who visit the jailor (even without a BMer) night 1.

Jailor still shouldn’t be able to jail the same person 2 nights in a row, and trans still needs to lose self-transportations (or at least limit them to one per game). That transporter thing is NEEDED in ranked.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Soulshade55r » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:26 pm

Achilles wrote:The Lookout change is intended to specifically counter the LO/jailor meta.

The goal of the NK buffs is to increase their KPN potential, making them a bigger threat since they are generally a 1 person faction.

The Psychic change is a non-change, it just isn't tied to full moon nights anymore so that WW transformations could be tweaked.


I'd at least make it so lookout saw "Too may targets visited [x] last night!" Or something along those lines rng is bad. This also does a better job at beating tp/lo meta imo, two mafia can visit jailor n1, tp will then a surpise arso suddenly Jailor will be dead the following night, instead of having a chance to see some good players on jailor still

SK/WW changes generally are fine (I'd actually argue sk would be still a bit too weak compared to the other nks)

Arsonist changes I rather arso have a double douse then a passive douse just personally (or maybe dousing twice during full moons ect. there's a way to buff arso without making it too powerful/chaotic) I feel like at least then it's more controlled on who you douse but arso would have a bigger KPN pot.

In general players need to realise that NK should also be the main threat (alongside mafia of course) in ranked, while it shouldn't be literally overpowered it should be something town actually fears the Nk, it also would make nk way more fun and exciting to play.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby HAWAIIANpikachu » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:16 pm

I'm fine with most of these. Arsonist might need a nerf with the new change (maybe a restriction on amount per night or in total) but most are fine and make NKs more of a threat without being overly powerful

Edit: Although of course we'll need to do something about witch being doused by Arsonist if we do that. We don't need a lose-lose situation for both arso and witch
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby TheFluffyWaffleV2 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:56 pm

Arso about to get nerfed HARD
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby ViciousMalicious » Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:21 pm

Why are you even asking feedback here? I bet half the people posting don't play ranked.

Lookout nerf is retarded, this is a social deduction game. Can't deduct shit when a role is nerfed like this.

Arso buff is welcome. Witch shouldn't get doused when witching arso. Spy bug should be able see him dousing visiters.

Escort should prevent double kill. SK buff is not really neccesary.

WW buff is not really neccesary but not unwelcome, it's just a boring role as is.

If you're going to implement all this you might want to restart the season.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby CrimsonKatana » Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:24 pm

Bro if you think the Arso buff is good for the game at all like you're delusional
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Brilliand » Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:35 pm

ViciousMalicious wrote:Why are you even asking feedback here? I bet half the people posting don't play ranked.


This is where the people who spend all day arguing about the balance of various roles are.

Arguing with other interested people helps you gets a sense of what kind of change the game actually needs. Throwing your weight around by pointing out that you have more points than the other guy does not.

ViciousMalicious wrote:Lookout nerf is retarded, this is a social deduction game. Can't deduct shit when a role is nerfed like this.


Social deduction ≠ mechanical deduction

I think you forgot the "social" part.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby DFrenchBoi » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:48 pm

GreekGodSudura wrote: Proportional winrates are for morons who demand participation trophies. Go home.

5/15 for all.


What are you talking about? A proportional win rate makes each faction member have to play well or they're going to lose. Giving 1 person an equal chance of winning as 13 people (NE is excluded since their win conditions are different) is simply ridiculous. Also, developers, PLEASE take note about how much people have played the game when you look at suggestions. There is a clear trend of more experienced players opposing these buffs, and those with less experience supporting them. That in itself should tell you something.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Brilliand » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:13 am

In a 2-team game, each team should ideally have a 50% winrate. The smaller team must compensate for their small size with a greater power per player, in order for the game to be fair.

With more than 2 teams, it gets a bit muddled... which is part of why I agreed with Oxy's proposal to remove the third team. However, with more than 2 teams, at least no team should have more than a 50% winrate.

Proportional winrates are thus sort of absurd, but the proportional mindset does make sense if you hedge it a bit. I'm fond of the idea of pushing the Town, Mafia and NK winrates toward 50%, 33% and 17%, respectively, as that has a nice mathematical relationship with proportional winrates, while not putting any one faction over 50%.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby HAWAIIANpikachu » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:20 am

The simplest way to fix that problem of fair win rates (Proportional vs About Equal) is to probably make it so it's not 3 factions and instead 2 factions, which it probably should be considered tbh.

NK should be stronger though so NKs might actually try to win instead of just shrugging and basically accepting what would be a likely loss unless they can manage both town and mafia while both have an easier time fighting off NK collectively. (Town's majority + Mafia's info vs NK literally being a minority with practically no info).

Most of these will likely be fixed and tweaked anyways for balance. They'll won't just let arso and witch be technically enemies if witch finds Arso with their ability.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby ZedKiller13 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:29 am

DFrenchBoi wrote:
GreekGodSudura wrote: Proportional winrates are for morons who demand participation trophies. Go home.

5/15 for all.


What are you talking about? A proportional win rate makes each faction member have to play well or they're going to lose. Giving 1 person an equal chance of winning as 13 people (NE is excluded since their win conditions are different) is simply ridiculous. Also, developers, PLEASE take note about how much people have played the game when you look at suggestions. There is a clear trend of more experienced players opposing these buffs, and those with less experience supporting them. That in itself should tell you something.


I’m very certain the developers are capable of looking at suggestions considering the past patch was based entirely on suggestions. I’ll admit criticizing others won’t get anywhere forward in the discussion since it seems my wall of text was skipped somewhat.

“Clear trend”? Are you basing your information on the time since they joined the website/game or have you actually rigged up stats yourself to see how many games they’ve played in the past/their ELO ranking? Basing it on the time since they joined, or the amount of posts they have, is pretty hypocritical since you have 6 posts and joined in March. I’m not seeing a trend there.

I’m pretty certain the majority people here who are both for and against the changes both reside in the experienced group.

However, being more experienced shouldn't determine the yes and no of everything because that modifies the rules to their liking as it helps them succeed, and not everyone. You can have 3000 games played and 3500 ELO, I don’t care. Even if the majority dislikes the changes, you have to look at the reality behind every situation. How much of an effect will these changes actually have overall? If they perform their purpose and wipe out the Jailor/TP/LO meta, and instead allow for more strategy to come from players to get their wins, isn’t that the desired purpose? Experienced players will take advantage of anything available to them that allows them to snag an easy victory, no matter the faction or role they have. It’s a part of every game. If the game however implements ways to negate quick and easy-to-access wins however, and instead brings large consequences to those who try for those easy strategies, then you can heavily negate the use of them and encourage critical thinking no matter how experienced you are.

You can definitely throw up situations where evils completely wipe out Town, but that’s assuming the worst possible outcome without any other roles or situations that can completely negate that situation from happening. If the meta vanishes, the worst possible outcome no longer exists, and Town can focus on other, more strategy based (and fun) ways of taking down the Arsonist or other NK.

The Lookout change is a very minor nerf. Lookout rarely ever sees more than 3 people visit their target, and in the case they do it’s usually because of the Jailor meta in of itself. Lookouts who snag a Mafioso and Janitor or an NK will still exist because that’s usually the only people who visit. Rarely ever anyone else visits, and if so they’ve got ways to keep themselves out of suspicion as the other two Mafia may have a different outcome in how they defend themselves.

The same goes for the Serial Killer. Their buff is extremely situational and relies on luck or the use of a meta that may soon be abandoned because of it. It proves deadly to Town, but killing three Townies that fast usually screws over the NK THEMSELVES as the Mafia now have a majority! The same goes for the TP/LO Arsonist, as wiping out the Town allows Mafia to steamroll the rest!
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Brilliand » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:32 am

HAWAIIANpikachu wrote:(Town's majority + Mafia's info vs NK literally being a minority with practically no info).


Nutty idea: Can we fix this by giving the NK even more info than the Mafia? :o

(Nah probably not.)
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby DFrenchBoi » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:38 am

Brilliand wrote: Proportional winrates are thus sort of absurd, but the proportional mindset does make sense if you hedge it a bit. I'm fond of the idea of pushing the Town, Mafia and NK winrates toward 50%, 33% and 17%, respectively, as that has a nice mathematical relationship with proportional winrates, while not putting any one faction over 50%.


I agree with this, NK should be stronger but not by too much or else it throws the balance of the game out of wack. Serial Killers wiping the death note of their role blocker is a good buff, as is role block or control immunity for arsonist. The idea of an NK kill deleting a will no matter how it happens is interesting, it would be similar to the effect of a forger, and in a data set collected by SwampRabbit forger increases evil win rates by a significant margin (greater than 5% impact). If this held true in ranked games it would give the desired effect of increasing evil win rates without being overly powerful or reducing town win rates far too much. Since I consider the NK buffs to simply being too strong, making serial killers delete the wills of their role blockers and perhaps even werewolves shredding wills of the people they kill, along with adding control and/or role block immunity to arsonist to prevent them losing a valuable douse night early in the game when it is most important that they get a kill, I could consider backing that as a buff, as it is not too strong but is a buff that would increase evil win rates.

Another thing to consider is that many games reach a kingmaker scenario, or a scenario where 1 player (town member of neutral evil, usually exe/witch) decides whether mafia or NK will win the game. They often side with NK based on the fact that NK is hard, so if changes are made that increase the likelihood of evils winning or gaining majority (important to win) then this would not only increase mafia but also neutral killing win rates, as a town member could side with them or they could count carefully and pick off the mafia members while always making sure town never has the votes to put them or a mafia member on the stand.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby HAWAIIANpikachu » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:39 am

Brilliand wrote:
HAWAIIANpikachu wrote:(Town's majority + Mafia's info vs NK literally being a minority with practically no info).


Nutty idea: Can we fix this by giving the NK even more info than the Mafia? :o

(Nah probably not.)

I mean we could try it, but whenever that's good or not is an entirely different story.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby ViciousMalicious » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:25 am

Brilliand wrote:
ViciousMalicious wrote:Why are you even asking feedback here? I bet half the people posting don't play ranked.


This is where the people who spend all day arguing about the balance of various roles are.

Arguing with other interested people helps you gets a sense of what kind of change the game actually needs. Throwing your weight around by pointing out that you have more points than the other guy does not.


The game should be balanced around ranked. None of the gmods/judges/admins play ranked.

Input from players is wise but not from the all-any addicts on here. There's a reason devs have ignored literally every game suggestion on here for over 4 years now.

Brilliand wrote:
ViciousMalicious wrote:Lookout nerf is retarded, this is a social deduction game. Can't deduct shit when a role is nerfed like this.


Social deduction ≠ mechanical deduction

I think you forgot the "social" part.


Except that when you nerf lookout like that it turns into a RNG-fest and the role provides neither.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby HAWAIIANpikachu » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:37 am

I don't see how Lookout is RNG-related because outside of following Jailor Meta I can barely recall ever seeing 3 people visit someone, much less 4+ people.

There's a few different ways we can make it less RNG related anyways.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby GreekGodSudura » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:35 am

DFrenchBoi wrote:
GreekGodSudura wrote: Proportional winrates are for morons who demand participation trophies. Go home.

5/15 for all.


What are you talking about? A proportional win rate makes each faction member have to play well or they're going to lose. Giving 1 person an equal chance of winning as 13 people (NE is excluded since their win conditions are different) is simply ridiculous. Also, developers, PLEASE take note about how much people have played the game when you look at suggestions. There is a clear trend of more experienced players opposing these buffs, and those with less experience supporting them. That in itself should tell you something.


Yeah except this is a second account, you monkey.

I have WAY more games on my old one, JustSomeOtherGuy.

Congratulations, you played yourself.

Proportional win rates are the opposite of having to play well. It's roll town to win. It's roll NK to lose.

Playing well doesn't turn 1/15 chance into a win. You never HAD a chance.

Making it equal chances for all makes playing well turn it into a win. It LITERALLY openly means there's no RNG, it's whoever plays better.

You just demand FreeLO.
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