Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

[lomek455]

The Lookout change is intended to specifically counter the LO/jailor meta.

Diamond elo opinion here: randomness or unknown works of priority of which info should show up is wrong solution to counter meta.


Lookout is fine for now... But I have a suggestion for rework. I might publish it later.

[Brilliand]

Passive Ability - Lynch immunity. If voted up, you are immediately made innocent and game announces your role.

Reason: I see Juggernaut as opposite to Pestilence, Pestilence is immune at night and has to be hanged so Juggernaut should be immune during the day and has to be killed at night, if we keep basic defense as a 2nd kill upgrade it will allow town/evil time to find and kill Juggernaut before he gets too powerful.

Complete lynch immunity? Oh hell no. That would make him completely unkillable not-too-rarely, because he also has basic defense and even if he lost that, it isn't rare for the Town to have to do without any nightkill at all. Pestilence at least always has a way to lose if the town hasn't been reduced to the final 2, because lynching is available to everyone.

[Superalex11]

Lets take a look at the average amount of Jailor-visitors in an optimal group in a game where we assume there is a Lookout (as if there is none it doesn't matter)
TIs -- This nerf only matters if there's a LO in the game, so we'll assume one of the TIs is LO. Second TI has a 50% chance of being a LO or Spy. Average Jailor visits produced by TI: 1/2.
TP -- This will always visit Jailor so that's +1 Jailor visitor.
TS -- This will visit Jailor if it's an Escort (out of the five options). Getting Mayor or Retri also increases chance of RTs being jailor-visitors. So +1/5.
TK -- 50% chance of being Vet which will increase the chance of RTs being jailor-visitors.
RTs -- Of the 13 town role options, five visit the Jailor. Ignoring the unique-role complexity (so getting a lower bound for how many jailor-visitors there are on average), it's a 5/13 chance of getting a jailor-visitor per-RT. Thus +15/13.

So for town visits alone the total amount of Jailor-visitors on average in a Lookout game (not counting Lookout) is 2.85384615, since this game would only be in whole numbers that seems to suggest more often than not you'll reach your limit from town alone.

but that was just the town

Now we'll consider RMs, since with the Lookout nerf it is now optimal for RMs like Framer, Disguiser, and even Forger to always visit Jailor n1 so that their Mafioso and GF can safely claim TP and even if Spy sees a visit to Jailor n1 the LO can't be certain they were shown the RMs visiting (in fact this entire theory depends on which visits the LO sees when they get too many: is it random? Based on lobby order? Role order? Role order would be the worst option by far).
RMs -- of the seven RM options, 3 will visit jailor (four if you want to include Consort), so that's +6/7.
NKs -- Arsonists will also visit Jailor n1, so that's +1/3.
Leading to a total average amount of Jailor visitors in a game with a Lookout (remember this is an underestimate since it didn't consider the increased chance of RTs being visitors due to unique roles)
4.044322344319011* Jailor visitors in a Lookout game.
*albiet to be fair this number doesn't consider Jailor jailing one of the Jailor-visitors, but even if it does that still hits the important three on average.

The amount being four isn't really relevant, if you get three visits as a Lookout that's all mafia, NE, NK, etc. needs to be able to safely claim TP, so it's a big nerf.

The problem with this is the strictness of your assumptions and the focus on n1.
1) Spy may not visit jailor (n1, or even at all). This will be especially true in sub-masters elo(*).
2) Escort may not visit jailor n1, and likely won't on later nights. I believe this holds even more true than the above claim for spy.
3) If we assume visits will change in accordance with this patch, there's no reason to assume it will only move in one direction. So if we assume RM+arso visits increase n1 to take advantage of the patch, I see no reason to neglect the assumption that esc+spy visits wouldn't be outright excluded as a counter.
4) Even assuming evil visits will increase with this patch, it's too strong a claim that RM's would overload visits. They serve their own purposes, and wouldn't all forgo the use of their abilities for the sake of a lookout-block.
5) If the focus is on n1, then accounting for a jailed otherwise-visitor is significant.

Now, all that said, I'm grateful that someone's taken the time to address my post, as it's made me realize I made an error in my math. And with all this in mind now, let's put it together:

First I re-ran the numbers with your assumptions just to check for myself. 4.04 is a correct average, but it's still important to consider the probability of the effect itself. In your case it turns up to about 64.58%, meaning just more than 3 in 5 games will have 4+ visitors (aside from the watching lookout) on the jailor n1.

Now, factoring in various fixed assumptions from above, I recalculated (visiting roles include lo, bg, doc, disg, forger, and framer).
Average night visits: 2.80 (max considering uniques is 3.01)
Probability of >3 night visits: 25.14% (max considering uniques is 32.04%)

If you want to be ballsy and include an arso, that raises n1's avg to 3.13 (max 3.34) and prob to 36.22% (max 43.16%).


So alright, not as bad as I'd first thought. But the point still remains that in a majority of games this will not allow the level of freedom it purports to (or at least seems to imply to, given the public response). As long as lookouts are consistent in their watches, this change would not allow evils any more claimspace as tplo than they already have, neglecting extraordinary circumstances.

The only way an evil would have tplo claimspace, where they otherwise wouldn't without this change, is where they know the visits a lookout has seen, and the number of visits is 3.
If an evil visits, faking as tplo, and the number of visits was less than 3, there is 0 difference. This will be the case in at minimum 68% of games.
If an evil visits, faking as tplo, and the number of visits was equal to or greater than 3, that evil cannot safely hold claimspace unless they know who was seen visiting. It would not be an optimal strategy to blind-claim.



(*)I understand we should not build a meta focused on low-elo play, but similarly we cannot build a meta focused only on max-elo play. We must take into consideration possible metas within a range of elos, imo between mid to mid-high, in order to meet a fair medium between skillful play and fun play.

[DeanAdamFry]

Passive Ability - Lynch immunity. If voted up, you are immediately made innocent and game announces your role.

Reason: I see Juggernaut as opposite to Pestilence, Pestilence is immune at night and has to be hanged so Juggernaut should be immune during the day and has to be killed at night, if we keep basic defense as a 2nd kill upgrade it will allow town/evil time to find and kill Juggernaut before he gets too powerful.

Complete lynch immunity? Oh hell no. That would make him completely unkillable not-too-rarely, because he also has basic defense and even if he lost that, it isn't rare for the Town to have to do without any nightkill at all. Pestilence at least always has a way to lose if the town hasn't been reduced to the final 2, because lynching is available to everyone.

Well if we up the basic defense upgrade to lets say 3 kills, that should give town/evil plenty of time to find Juggernaut right? By third night, town should have been cut in half so assuming Juggernaut has even survived this long, town/evil should have deduced who is the Juggernaut by now, if they haven’t then Juggernaut deserves the win.

Apart from this though, what do you think of my other ideas?

[Brilliand]

Lookout is fine for now... But I have a suggestion for rework. I might publish it later.

Ideally this should be posted in Role Ideas, but I know people just ignore forum organization in Achilles' threads. :/

Anyhow, I ran a search in Role Ideas, and found these two decent ideas for directly nerfing the Lookout:

If there are 3 or more visitors, the Lookout doesn't see any of their names
The Lookout may not watch the same target twice consecutively

There are also a large number of posts that attempt to weaken the Lookout by creating a new evil role that strongly counters the Lookout.

[Brilliand]

Well if we up the basic defense upgrade to lets say 3 kills, that should give town/evil plenty of time to find Juggernaut right?

IMO it doesn't matter how much time the other factions get, the game should never be able to enter a state where there are plenty of players left alive but one player is completely unkillable.

Apart from this though, what do you think of my other ideas?

Uhh...

Serial Killer
Night Ability (3 charges) - Your attacks are Powerful tonight.

Reason: This will allow SK to kill those with basic defense, SK is the only NK who cannot kill other NK and other basic defense roles so this will help SK get over these hurdles.[/url]

Wouldn't help enough. Killing the Godfather is never the SK's primary concern. Killing the Werewolf sometimes is in All Any, but do we really need to flip things around to SK beats WW instead of WW beating SK? I don't see the need.

Werewolf
Keep proposed changes you made, they are good for WW, puts more pressure on factions to find WW.

Yep.

Arsonist
Passive Ability - Anyone that visits your targets house is also doused.

Reason: This will increase potential dousing without being too OP, this will allow witch to side with you and if you read the game right you can get multiple targets doused in one night like WW.

Well this is the old "give Arsonist the Werewolf power" buff. And it still makes Arso too powerful relative to WW, even with the proposed WW buff.

Unless you want to buff the WW another few notches, but as several other people have noted, the Ranked rolelist isn't balanced right for things this powerful to be able to exist in that mode.

[lomek455]

Lookout is fine for now... But I have a suggestion for rework. I might publish it later.

Ideally this should be posted in Role Ideas, but I know people just ignore forum organization in Achilles' threads. :/

I am aware of "Role Ideas" category, I will publish it in that section. And I have pretty unique way of rework for Lookout... I will post here link to my topic to see opinions, in case if developers actually think that current Lookout is too strong due to Jailor meta and they want to change it.

If there are 3 or more visitors, the Lookout doesn't see any of their names

Actually I think Bodhrak's rework might be better than my rework, but I'll still publish.

UPD: Here's my Lookout little rework

[Krazikitteh]

Couple questions I have about gameplay:

Serial Killer:
1) Does Jailor count as a "Roleblocker" that'll have will covered with blood?
2) I assume Roleblockers attacked by the sk they targeted can still be healed by a doctor
3) Should a Bodyguard protect a roleblocker who visits SK, will they attack the Serial Killer, and will the Serial Killer still attack their original target?

Lookout:
1) I assume results will be random for each Lookout visiting correct?
ex. 1-6 Visit a player. LO1 sees "2, 5, 6" visit. LO2 sees "3, 4, 6" Visit.

[PolarH]

These Buffs are terrible. These abilities are already in Coven why bring them over the classic where they are not wanted.

In classic a few miss lynches gives evils majority by day 3/day 4. By having these NK buffs you are obliterating town without them having to lynch at all. Town visiting roles will now be useless. If a invest checks arso night 1 and arso douses another target the arso gets 2 kills night 2. With mafia getting 1 kill that’s 3 kills Night 2. With 1 kill night 1 thats 4 dead townies without any lynches or TK kills. So by day 3 it’s 5 town vs 6 evils.

You are ruining this game with unnecessary additions. Think about this more before killing off a fun game.

[polypies73]

One thing that I think hasn't really been considered is that the devs can just change the role list for ranked.
Yes it probably is true that with these NK buffs town winrate may drop a bit too low. However, I think we agree that NK should have much higher chances of winning.
If you just change the role list to slightly buff town if you think evils will have too high of a winrate what is the problem. Considering that at its core the idea is to balance roles themselves to be fun and playable.

[Brilliand]

One thing that I think hasn't really been considered is that the devs can just change the role list for ranked.

This is a big decision, and I kind of doubt they want to squeeze it into the very next patch.

[Szebo210]

The reason why I don't like the NK changes (yet):
-Neither town, neither mafia has got an absolute strength currently. By this I mean that a mafia team with double consort is much stronger than a mafia team with a forger and a disguiser for example. The strength of both factions in a game is HIGHLY DEPENDANT on the roles which are in the game. Therefore, in some games where there are weak town roles and strong mafia roles, these NK buffs will probably backfire (mostly speaking of sk).

I think currently what the highest priority should be is to make all town, all mafia and all nk roles have the similar strength.

I think it is obvious that forgers, disguiser and framers are far from blackmailers, janitors and consorts in this kind of perspective
Sk is way stronger than arso which is way stronger then ww
Lookout, Jailor are easily the strongest town roles, while a sheriff or a medium is very weak

I think there is no point buffing or nerfing each faction, until they don't have nearly the same strength in the vast majority of the times. This is because all of these are very highly dependant on the roles which are in the game. For example in one game mafia can be strong, in another mafia can be weak. It would be a wrong choice if the mafia faction itself got buffed instead of the weaker mafia roles. Same goes for Neutral Killings. I think SK is in the right place now, so I greatly disagree with a buff. I agree with the WW change but the arso buff is highly questionable.

I like the Lookout change, since that role can singlehandely confirm several town roles if there is a spy. But please consider again the NK buffs. Don't get me wrong, I also think that NKs are generally in a weak position right now, but buffing them could backfire hard in certain situations. It would be much better if the weak mafia roles got buffed first and the strong town roles got nerfed (like LO and jailor). After that we can discuss if there will be any need for NK buffs (probably will).

[Mattant]

Aside from all the things related directly to these changes, there would be a problem with Witch - it would be almost impossible for them to win with Arsonist, as having them controlled (the most common way for Witch to find evils, after all) means she would be doused and would have to keep Arsonist from igniting, pretty much wasting both theirs abilities. If you want to buff Arsonist this way anyway, you should think about ways for Witch to be undoused (making her immune to dousing is not a good idea, after all, Arsonist might want Witch dead if she is clearly siding with Mafia or someone else (outside Ranked)).

[Robbytherobot]

Im iffy with most of the nk buffs (except ww) but I do think that LO needs a major nerf it keeps the meta alive and is very annoying to deal with as evils, it can be done but this limits the lo s possible metaness.

[bruh888]

I got the lookout achievement for watching 5 or more people visit my target 3 years ago. inb4 achievement gets changed.

also I'm glad juggernaut is getting basic def now. first and only time I was jugg I was killed by a vampire first night. this was before the odds of getting jugg were increased so I was pissed. lol.

[DragonClaw66]

Lookout Nerf: I never really liked this in the past, but I would be fine with it as long as a priority list is added (priority lists should also be added to some expansion roles, but I don't care too much as I don't own the expansion).
Psychic Nerf: Don't own the expansion, don't care.
Serial Killer Buff: If this is implemented, the Escort becomes a throw role in Serial Killer games. Every night, the player risks the Town losing an extra player, and they don't even find out who the Serial Killer is when it does happen. I am still a firm believer that the best approach to increasing Neutral Killing win rates is by nerfing the Town. Though this role should probably still be buffed. Allow it to choose whether or not it kills the Jailor/Pirate when targeted by one.
Arsonist Buff: Seriously overkill. The role is like a slightly delayed Pestilence now. Abandon the first idea. Implement the second idea with this (however, it should have permanent detection immunity, in my opinion).
Werewolf Buff: The role will always be swingy in its current state. Would rather it get reworked into this (though it should have an additional charge on the first night).
Juggernaut: Don't have the expansion, so don't really care, but I have seen people arguing for this a lot, so it might be good?

[Confectionery]

Arsonist will now passively gas douse anyone who visits them. Arsonist will also now get feedback about who is gas doused (similar to plaguebearer).

If this is implemented, it would make more sense to have the dousing priority below the igniting priority (people doused visiting you while you ignite won't be susceptible to ignition until the next night), and remove the permanent Investigator result change on doused victims.

[oddluck]

All these changes look great, NK will be more fun than ever to play as. Werewolf really deserves that buff

If they don't work out they can always be changed back, fantastic work by the devs lately.



Someone in this thread suggested promoting strategy, that is a brilliant idea

[SamLovesGames]

I looked at the replies and found some ideas that I think would work:

Lookout doesn't get any results when there are more than 3 visitors or becomes unique
Serial killer either gets the blood soak for wills or is immune to role blocks entirely
Werewolf attacks every night after night 4 like suggested or gets powerful defence on full moon nights
Arsonist becomes role block and control immune.
Juggernaut starts with defence

I'm not a pro though so these might be awful ideas

[LairesTheUnscaled]

I really really like these changes. People are scared of NK in these replies it seems, but making NK OP is absolutely healthy for the Ranked role list, as NK should be able to win AT LEAST 10% of games to be worth playing him. Some statistics say NK on average wins only around 2% games right now and that is VERY low, these buffs might actually not even be enough for let's say WW which gets good only if they survive first 4 nights, compared to other NKs which gain the benefit since N1. It's super healthy to buff NK in general, because if meta turns to be too Town sided, NK can just prioritize killing Townies all game. If mafia will have too high WR because of this, then NK can try to spread kills on both sides to achieve victory. NK is meant to be the role that balances power between Town and Mafia no matter what happens, but currently Town is just WAY too strong and can take on both Mafia and NK without a problem.

With these changes however, Town shouldn't be nearly as obvious to win when Mafia and NK go hard against them. PLEASE let these changes go live, Ranked needs it and even if you over-buff them, games will still be very much balanced, because that's what NK needs to do to win, balance sides between Town and Mafia to not become priority kill for either side. Perfect target for the buff and I hope you release it in next couple of weeks. Looks very promising.

[ZedKiller13]

I’m seeing a lot of arguments that the NK changes especially for Arsonist are too overpowered, when really I see it as a perfect way to level out Ranked as it is.

In my view Ranked should focus on balance and the ability of each team to cooperate in order to win the game, and avoid unbalance in the role list and the roles’ ability to win the game over others.

People are suggesting situations where NK could absolutely demolish the Town early, but the problem with that is those are SITUATIONS, and are not always reality.

In Ranked, what roles spawn determine the efficiency of each faction. How people play the game determines how well that efficiency proves. An Arsonist in a game now with high TP/LO meta going on can prove devastating to the Town.

However, if you are going to implement situations that can prove deadly to the Town and play heavy in NK’s favor, then you must include situations where the Town can prevent a large amount of people dying quickly.

The Serial Killer change is actually very minor in the grand scheme of things. Sure, in the event they nab an Escort, kill someone else, and Mafia kills someone, Town is in a bit of trouble. However, the events going on in game can completely negate any of those kills completely or prevent a mass amount of death from going on;
If any one of the chosen people to kill were protected, watched by a Lookout, are an immune NE, or were jailed, only 1-2 kills actually occur and said Serial Killer probably gets killed after.
With a large amount of people killed, that whittles down the confirmability of other roles and the claim space left in the role list. Serial Killer has an extremely poor investigative result combined with very little ways to get themselves “confirmed” early on and usually falls victim to hanging or the Jailor, since they have no allies known early and have to fabricate every part of their claim.
If the Town starts taking heavy hits from SK’s asking for TP/Esc/LO, they’ll quickly learn to avoid anyone asking for that entirely and may as well stop using it altogether. This applies for the Arsonist as well. If you avoid using the TP/LO meta and instead use other methods to find evils, you can still confirm many people at once and nab other evils.

Arsonist is now very powerful. Using the TP/LO meta can prove devastating if an Arsonist takes notice of it and takes advantage. However, the TP/LO meta can still prove to take them out quickly.

If any Mafia were caught and killed, even on Day 2, losing 2-3 townies may be manageable.
The Lookout still sees the Arsonist in their results unless we assume every damn Townie visited the presumed Jailor, which depends entirely on the role list and how susceptible people are to going along with the Jailor meta with the knowledge the Arsonist is capable of doing all of this.
Again, if TP/LO isn’t announced none of these situations matter whatsoever as it can’t directly come out.

The Werewolf change is fine to allow it some more killing power and ways to avoid directly sacrificing themselves to the Jailor N2 if TP/LO is in effect.

Juggernaut change will definitely help it out early game to prevent it from being taken out so quickly. This means it only needs to power up thrice now correct? So it goes to attacking each night, Rampage, then Unstoppable attack?
It still needs an investigative result.

Lookout change is good. Lookout still performs its role perfectly and the majority of the time you won’t have more than three people visiting a target, even with TP/LO unless the rolelist allows for it.

Psychic isn’t being nerfed though, I’m reading people are saying it is, when it’s just changing the wording so Psychic receives alternating results every night, rather than being stuck with Full Moons after Night 4.

The main thing is this. If people start taking heavy damage from using the TP/LO meta, they’ll quickly learn to avoid using it and start suspecting people who ask for TP early. The TP/LO meta in Ranked has been devastating to evils because it’s such a lazy and easy way to confirm a lot of people at once with little consequence afterwards. Adding a Spy into the mix only enhances it.

These changes destroy that meta completely because Ranked should not be led completely by a meta in order to win. I’m very sure other games have shown good ways to win without the use of the meta and those games are completely fine. For everyone else though, the meta makes Ranked a very poor place to be in, it isn’t fun, and it takes out nearly all competitiveness from the mode.

If you want to be a piss baby about the meta going away and saying NK’s are now too overpowered, calm down. Look at every side of the spectrum. Some situations can prove devastating, but you must know there’s multiple other situations that counter those that do the most damage. Ranked should not be led by a meta, and even with the new added strength of these roles, it finally gives them a break away from the meta in general and gives them a way to win and create strategies instead of trying to douse the Jailor night 1 and claim Bodyguard after.

[ZedKiller13]

Forgot to mention that the Witch is heavily affected by the Arso change, so in that case just make the Witch unable to be doused. They’re magical so I would think removing gasoline from them would be easy and a piece of cake to fit with some lore.
Arsonists themselves should still be able to be doused since that serves as a way to negate them for a night while they clean themselves off to help lessen their killing power.

[Doodel]

LO change-Unnecessary
Arso change-Gamebreaking
WW change-Acceptable
SK change-Would be fine if no double kill.

[Varanus]

[OreCreeper]

Update on what we are working on and the plans for our next patch:

Lookout will be limited to seeing only 3 visiting roles per night.
Psychic will work the same but not have its alternating nights tied into full moon nights.
Lookout change seems unnecessary. I would rather just make LO an unique role so you don't get 4 lookout games since those can get annoying.
Neutral Killing Buffs
SerialKiller will not be stopped from attacking it's target by roleblocks. This allows for a double kill (the roleblocker and the SK target being attacked in the same night). Additionally when a SerialKiller kills a roleblocker, the last will of the roleblocker will be covered in blood, preventing it from being readable.
This is too broken lol, haven a potential 2 kpn for a role that can kill independently every night is ridiculously OP when coupled with the factional mafia nightkill. It can potentially make town lose majority by d2 in certain cases.
Arsonist will now passively gas douse anyone who visits them. Arsonist will also now get feedback about who is gas doused (similar to plaguebearer).
Please don't do that. The better way to fix arsonist is to just give it RB and control immunity/only when igniting, but make it also douse role-blockers. This also doesnt counter arsonist's biggest late game enemy- the consort, who can completely shut the arso down.
Werewolf - After night 4 every night will be a full moon night
Just make it so it gets Powerful defense on full-moon nights so it can bypass TPs. Werewolves usually dont live that long so this change affects very few ranked games.
Juggernaut - Juggernaut will now have basic defense. Rampaging and Unstoppable attack upgrades now require 1 less kill to unlock.

I've never played jugg before so not gonna judge this.