Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby HAWAIIANpikachu » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:16 pm

I'm fine with most of these. Arsonist might need a nerf with the new change (maybe a restriction on amount per night or in total) but most are fine and make NKs more of a threat without being overly powerful

Edit: Although of course we'll need to do something about witch being doused by Arsonist if we do that. We don't need a lose-lose situation for both arso and witch
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby TheFluffyWaffleV2 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:56 pm

Arso about to get nerfed HARD
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby ViciousMalicious » Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:21 pm

Why are you even asking feedback here? I bet half the people posting don't play ranked.

Lookout nerf is retarded, this is a social deduction game. Can't deduct shit when a role is nerfed like this.

Arso buff is welcome. Witch shouldn't get doused when witching arso. Spy bug should be able see him dousing visiters.

Escort should prevent double kill. SK buff is not really neccesary.

WW buff is not really neccesary but not unwelcome, it's just a boring role as is.

If you're going to implement all this you might want to restart the season.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby CrimsonKatana » Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:24 pm

Bro if you think the Arso buff is good for the game at all like you're delusional
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Brilliand » Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:35 pm

ViciousMalicious wrote:Why are you even asking feedback here? I bet half the people posting don't play ranked.


This is where the people who spend all day arguing about the balance of various roles are.

Arguing with other interested people helps you gets a sense of what kind of change the game actually needs. Throwing your weight around by pointing out that you have more points than the other guy does not.

ViciousMalicious wrote:Lookout nerf is retarded, this is a social deduction game. Can't deduct shit when a role is nerfed like this.


Social deduction ≠ mechanical deduction

I think you forgot the "social" part.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby DFrenchBoi » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:48 pm

GreekGodSudura wrote: Proportional winrates are for morons who demand participation trophies. Go home.

5/15 for all.


What are you talking about? A proportional win rate makes each faction member have to play well or they're going to lose. Giving 1 person an equal chance of winning as 13 people (NE is excluded since their win conditions are different) is simply ridiculous. Also, developers, PLEASE take note about how much people have played the game when you look at suggestions. There is a clear trend of more experienced players opposing these buffs, and those with less experience supporting them. That in itself should tell you something.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Brilliand » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:13 am

In a 2-team game, each team should ideally have a 50% winrate. The smaller team must compensate for their small size with a greater power per player, in order for the game to be fair.

With more than 2 teams, it gets a bit muddled... which is part of why I agreed with Oxy's proposal to remove the third team. However, with more than 2 teams, at least no team should have more than a 50% winrate.

Proportional winrates are thus sort of absurd, but the proportional mindset does make sense if you hedge it a bit. I'm fond of the idea of pushing the Town, Mafia and NK winrates toward 50%, 33% and 17%, respectively, as that has a nice mathematical relationship with proportional winrates, while not putting any one faction over 50%.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby HAWAIIANpikachu » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:20 am

The simplest way to fix that problem of fair win rates (Proportional vs About Equal) is to probably make it so it's not 3 factions and instead 2 factions, which it probably should be considered tbh.

NK should be stronger though so NKs might actually try to win instead of just shrugging and basically accepting what would be a likely loss unless they can manage both town and mafia while both have an easier time fighting off NK collectively. (Town's majority + Mafia's info vs NK literally being a minority with practically no info).

Most of these will likely be fixed and tweaked anyways for balance. They'll won't just let arso and witch be technically enemies if witch finds Arso with their ability.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby ZedKiller13 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:29 am

DFrenchBoi wrote:
GreekGodSudura wrote: Proportional winrates are for morons who demand participation trophies. Go home.

5/15 for all.


What are you talking about? A proportional win rate makes each faction member have to play well or they're going to lose. Giving 1 person an equal chance of winning as 13 people (NE is excluded since their win conditions are different) is simply ridiculous. Also, developers, PLEASE take note about how much people have played the game when you look at suggestions. There is a clear trend of more experienced players opposing these buffs, and those with less experience supporting them. That in itself should tell you something.


I’m very certain the developers are capable of looking at suggestions considering the past patch was based entirely on suggestions. I’ll admit criticizing others won’t get anywhere forward in the discussion since it seems my wall of text was skipped somewhat.

“Clear trend”? Are you basing your information on the time since they joined the website/game or have you actually rigged up stats yourself to see how many games they’ve played in the past/their ELO ranking? Basing it on the time since they joined, or the amount of posts they have, is pretty hypocritical since you have 6 posts and joined in March. I’m not seeing a trend there.

I’m pretty certain the majority people here who are both for and against the changes both reside in the experienced group.

However, being more experienced shouldn't determine the yes and no of everything because that modifies the rules to their liking as it helps them succeed, and not everyone. You can have 3000 games played and 3500 ELO, I don’t care. Even if the majority dislikes the changes, you have to look at the reality behind every situation. How much of an effect will these changes actually have overall? If they perform their purpose and wipe out the Jailor/TP/LO meta, and instead allow for more strategy to come from players to get their wins, isn’t that the desired purpose? Experienced players will take advantage of anything available to them that allows them to snag an easy victory, no matter the faction or role they have. It’s a part of every game. If the game however implements ways to negate quick and easy-to-access wins however, and instead brings large consequences to those who try for those easy strategies, then you can heavily negate the use of them and encourage critical thinking no matter how experienced you are.

You can definitely throw up situations where evils completely wipe out Town, but that’s assuming the worst possible outcome without any other roles or situations that can completely negate that situation from happening. If the meta vanishes, the worst possible outcome no longer exists, and Town can focus on other, more strategy based (and fun) ways of taking down the Arsonist or other NK.

The Lookout change is a very minor nerf. Lookout rarely ever sees more than 3 people visit their target, and in the case they do it’s usually because of the Jailor meta in of itself. Lookouts who snag a Mafioso and Janitor or an NK will still exist because that’s usually the only people who visit. Rarely ever anyone else visits, and if so they’ve got ways to keep themselves out of suspicion as the other two Mafia may have a different outcome in how they defend themselves.

The same goes for the Serial Killer. Their buff is extremely situational and relies on luck or the use of a meta that may soon be abandoned because of it. It proves deadly to Town, but killing three Townies that fast usually screws over the NK THEMSELVES as the Mafia now have a majority! The same goes for the TP/LO Arsonist, as wiping out the Town allows Mafia to steamroll the rest!
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Brilliand » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:32 am

HAWAIIANpikachu wrote:(Town's majority + Mafia's info vs NK literally being a minority with practically no info).


Nutty idea: Can we fix this by giving the NK even more info than the Mafia? :o

(Nah probably not.)
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby DFrenchBoi » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:38 am

Brilliand wrote: Proportional winrates are thus sort of absurd, but the proportional mindset does make sense if you hedge it a bit. I'm fond of the idea of pushing the Town, Mafia and NK winrates toward 50%, 33% and 17%, respectively, as that has a nice mathematical relationship with proportional winrates, while not putting any one faction over 50%.


I agree with this, NK should be stronger but not by too much or else it throws the balance of the game out of wack. Serial Killers wiping the death note of their role blocker is a good buff, as is role block or control immunity for arsonist. The idea of an NK kill deleting a will no matter how it happens is interesting, it would be similar to the effect of a forger, and in a data set collected by SwampRabbit forger increases evil win rates by a significant margin (greater than 5% impact). If this held true in ranked games it would give the desired effect of increasing evil win rates without being overly powerful or reducing town win rates far too much. Since I consider the NK buffs to simply being too strong, making serial killers delete the wills of their role blockers and perhaps even werewolves shredding wills of the people they kill, along with adding control and/or role block immunity to arsonist to prevent them losing a valuable douse night early in the game when it is most important that they get a kill, I could consider backing that as a buff, as it is not too strong but is a buff that would increase evil win rates.

Another thing to consider is that many games reach a kingmaker scenario, or a scenario where 1 player (town member of neutral evil, usually exe/witch) decides whether mafia or NK will win the game. They often side with NK based on the fact that NK is hard, so if changes are made that increase the likelihood of evils winning or gaining majority (important to win) then this would not only increase mafia but also neutral killing win rates, as a town member could side with them or they could count carefully and pick off the mafia members while always making sure town never has the votes to put them or a mafia member on the stand.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby HAWAIIANpikachu » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:39 am

Brilliand wrote:
HAWAIIANpikachu wrote:(Town's majority + Mafia's info vs NK literally being a minority with practically no info).


Nutty idea: Can we fix this by giving the NK even more info than the Mafia? :o

(Nah probably not.)

I mean we could try it, but whenever that's good or not is an entirely different story.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby ViciousMalicious » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:25 am

Brilliand wrote:
ViciousMalicious wrote:Why are you even asking feedback here? I bet half the people posting don't play ranked.


This is where the people who spend all day arguing about the balance of various roles are.

Arguing with other interested people helps you gets a sense of what kind of change the game actually needs. Throwing your weight around by pointing out that you have more points than the other guy does not.


The game should be balanced around ranked. None of the gmods/judges/admins play ranked.

Input from players is wise but not from the all-any addicts on here. There's a reason devs have ignored literally every game suggestion on here for over 4 years now.

Brilliand wrote:
ViciousMalicious wrote:Lookout nerf is retarded, this is a social deduction game. Can't deduct shit when a role is nerfed like this.


Social deduction ≠ mechanical deduction

I think you forgot the "social" part.


Except that when you nerf lookout like that it turns into a RNG-fest and the role provides neither.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby HAWAIIANpikachu » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:37 am

I don't see how Lookout is RNG-related because outside of following Jailor Meta I can barely recall ever seeing 3 people visit someone, much less 4+ people.

There's a few different ways we can make it less RNG related anyways.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby ydnnek » Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:37 am

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the discussion of "the win-rates for each faction" should depend on a few assumptions. For example, assume that a "normal" player whose skill is neither above-average nor below-average has a long-run average ELO gain of zero (this player seems to not be special at all, and never seems to neither decrease nor decrese their ran) then if we allow their win-rate to be 50% (provided ELO gains are tweaked to be a flat and equal increase/decrease), then setting (among an infinite number of choices) the winrate for NK to be 10%, mafia to be 16%, and town to be 74% then this will satisfy the "normal player" assumption.

(Here's something I just typed up quickly for the above argument. I assumed for ease of argument that the chances of rolling NK is 2/15 instead of 1/15: https://www.overleaf.com/read/vzsvzfcdcjnh
Note: I'm not trying to suggest anything. I'm only trying to show that it's not easy to just pick a winrate for a faction, without making some underlying assumptions first).

I can't see why you can choose between a flat winrate for each faction or a proportional winrate for each faction without first assuming something on the ELO increases/decreases.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Freechancer » Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:50 am

I'm pretty sure the main concern is that it would put more pressure on town to play right and much less so for nk. They just need to kill townies. That's why nk is most powerful in low elo (think sk in classic). All any is, say, average elo, they know they should be hanging people so they just vote with maf all the time and 4-man maf wins at least 50% of games.
I think that nk should be fine in high elo, reaching 6v6 or 5v5 by d3 has been about declared the go-to win condition for evils. And it's town or nk that should come out the winner more often than not. Nk would be hanged (and maf won't vote nk if they feel threatened) or exed only if town takes the gamble to have escort or tp save the game for them (does this actually happen often?).
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Brilliand » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:21 am

ydnnek wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but the discussion of "the win-rates for each faction" should depend on a few assumptions. For example, assume that a "normal" player whose skill is neither above-average nor below-average has a long-run average ELO gain of zero (this player seems to not be special at all, and never seems to neither decrease nor decrese their ran) then if we allow their win-rate to be 50% (provided ELO gains are tweaked to be a flat and equal increase/decrease), then setting (among an infinite number of choices) the winrate for NK to be 10%, mafia to be 16%, and town to be 74% then this will satisfy the "normal player" assumption.

(Here's something I just typed up quickly for the above argument. I assumed for ease of argument that the chances of rolling NK is 2/15 instead of 1/15: https://www.overleaf.com/read/vzsvzfcdcjnh).

I can't see why you can choose between a flat winrate for each faction or a proportional winrate for each faction without first assuming something on the ELO increases/decreases.


I don't think it's necessary to intertwine the winrate discussion with the ELO discussion, in fact I'd prefer not to.

I'd rather balance the winrates to something that feels "fair" regardless of ELO, and also (in parallel) set up the ELO system in such a way that it will give appropriate amounts of ELO regardless of what the winrates are. Setting things up that way is more robust than using a "flat an equal" ELO gain/loss, and trying to set the winrates to values that don't cause the ELO system to be broken.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby BasicFourLife » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:05 pm

There is a reason why no one has suggested this before or if anyone has, their ideas have all been thrown to the garbage. A double kill by SK, will guarantee them being exposed even more so as before.

The Arsonist buffs is flawed because of visitation roles work.

Werewolf changes are irrelevant cause rampage shouldn’t exist in the first place.

And Jugg is neutral, cause it is flawed upon a flaw upon a flaw.

Edit: Aye aye can’t believe psychic, a role which is 100% rng and player has no control over, didn’t get reworked instead.

Lookout changes are something something fm tried some time ago but 3 players is basically unlimited anyways and it will have no effect in 4/5 games with a LO.
RNG is never good for any strategy based game. Please learn the definition of what that means, especially if you're one of the people constantly defending it.

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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby FerretBandit » Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:52 pm

Let me just say that Serial Killer change is REALLY bad. Escorts will just start outting who they're going to RB at the end of the day and when their will is cleaned they will be confirmed.

Instead, make Serial Killer Clean his victims, whether they were a role blocker or not. If he is RBed then he will only kill the RBer, but ANYONE the SK kills will be cleaned so only SK can see their role + will.

This means that Escorts dying to SK will no longer confirm who SK is even if they end up getting stabbed + cleaned that night, since it's unclear if SK attacked them directly of was roleblocked.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby MysticMismagius » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:46 pm

The OP literally confirms otherwise, they're changing Jugg

So either you remembered wrong, or they changed their minds, either way "Coven roles won't be changed" isn't true
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Soulshade55r » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:50 pm

Didn't they change Necromancer and coven leader last patch lol?
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby MysticMismagius » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:52 pm

Lowkey I'm thinking somewhere along the game of telephone "Coven roles won't be brought into Classic" (which actually has been said) mutated into "Coven roles won't be changed" and that's how Greek heard that
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby ydnnek » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:58 pm

Brilliand wrote:
ydnnek wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but the discussion of "the win-rates for each faction" should depend on a few assumptions. For example, assume that a "normal" player whose skill is neither above-average nor below-average has a long-run average ELO gain of zero (this player seems to not be special at all, and never seems to neither decrease nor decrese their ran) then if we allow their win-rate to be 50% (provided ELO gains are tweaked to be a flat and equal increase/decrease), then setting (among an infinite number of choices) the winrate for NK to be 10%, mafia to be 16%, and town to be 74% then this will satisfy the "normal player" assumption.

(Here's something I just typed up quickly for the above argument. I assumed for ease of argument that the chances of rolling NK is 2/15 instead of 1/15: https://www.overleaf.com/read/vzsvzfcdcjnh).

I can't see why you can choose between a flat winrate for each faction or a proportional winrate for each faction without first assuming something on the ELO increases/decreases.


I don't think it's necessary to intertwine the winrate discussion with the ELO discussion, in fact I'd prefer not to.

I'd rather balance the winrates to something that feels "fair" regardless of ELO, and also (in parallel) set up the ELO system in such a way that it will give appropriate amounts of ELO regardless of what the winrates are. Setting things up that way is more robust than using a "flat an equal" ELO gain/loss, and trying to set the winrates to values that don't cause the ELO system to be broken.


Those were just assumptions made, based on "setting a win rate, dependent on ELO" such that there is no ELO inflation/deflation because you're more likely to land on Town.

I do agree that it should be balanced to make it feel fair (e.g. landing on NK, you should have a relatively fair chance of winning, assuming everyone is of equal skill/deduction level).

But for the purpose of ELO rank, I do think that the amount should be adjusted for these "fair" winrates, so that a "normal" player deserves a rank which doesn't deviate from the default (to avoid any ELO inflation/deflation). I understand this is probably quite difficult though, and unrealistic.
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Brilliand » Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:31 pm

ydnnek wrote:But for the purpose of ELO rank, I do think that the amount should be adjusted for these "fair" winrates, so that a "normal" player deserves a rank which doesn't deviate from the default (to avoid any ELO inflation/deflation). I understand this is probably quite difficult though, and unrealistic.


It's definitely unrealistic to pick a fixed number that will always be appropriate for the current winrate over time.

What is realistic is to come up with an algorithm that will continually adjust the ELO gain/loss rates to be appropriate for whatever the current win/loss ratio happens to be.

The easiest way to accomplish this is what Superalex posted earlier: Set things up so the total amount of ELO gained by the winners and the total amount of ELO lost by the losers are exactly equal for every game.
(This creates issues for the NE though, so maybe it wouldn't be so easy once the NE issues are ironed out.)
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Re: Plans for the next patch (3.2.5)

Postby Superalex11 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:09 am

Am currently working on a full-scale analysis of Trials reports and I've just pulled this from all reports not guiltied for gamethrowing in range 2225730-3000000, duplicates excluded:
(Edit: Removed, fixed in future post; stats shown here are still approx. correct)

Lots to go over here, but on the point of winrates I think it's useful to have the actual data. So here are some quick stats:
In ranked-rolelist games, town wins 54%, mafia 33%, and nk 11%. The rest are draws.
In ranked-rolelist games, NK winrate order is ww, arso, sk.
All-any is played about 25% as much as ranked-rolelist games (36% including CAA).
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