Town of Salem Game Forums

HalkInHunt wrote:I am just wondering
Why every scum team wants to kill Eyes n1?

Read the mafia chat.

Good game everyone! I enjoyed it and am glad we pulled it off in the end. Yes, quite a lot of my reads were wrong, but I did end up reading the frop/Jaegy duo correctly (as Maf v Arso), and my townreads on destiny (before she was confirmed), Wild and Cheddar (apart from a moment of shameful conspiracy theory ) turned out to be correct.

Shout-outs to all the first-timers (Cheddar, BS, Wabbit, tardis) for playing competently, and especially well done to Jaegy (scum MVP this game, just a bit unlucky) and Cyantic for all those plans on D3 (yes, I know I didn't quite follow them all and went with my gut instead). And of course destiny and those lovely analytical posts

Also I agree that this setup is majorly townsided, primarily due to the presence of Arsonist IMO. Replacing that with a Witch would be much better tbh. And the Witch role should be changed to remove their autovest but have them win in death.

destinycall wrote:

Exceen wrote:So. Destiny I'm asking you to hear my theory considering the circumstances:

I think Raven was a...CITIZEN. Utterly lying about being a PR claim. - Like he did in the last NFM.

This means our PR slots. - Unlikely as two sheriffs may be. Actually has a chance to be real since thats 5 PR roles.

We'll need raven's replacement to confirm a role tho

Since Exceen is not alive to say "I told you so!", here is a quote from way back on Day 2. He totally guessed it.

And we did end up having a Citizen role in an RT slot.

So I guess I owe him an apology or two.

Am I utterly missing something? Cyantic did not flip Citizen, he flipped Doctor

destinycall wrote:So we have live players. Three are confirmed Town.

So last mafia can only be Vanquisher101 or BS425.

I agree that Vanquisher101 looks more likely of the two. So we lynch Van, roleblock BS if we are wrong.

Now that Cheddar's confirmed me as town, let's just get the game over with. Quicklynch Vanquisher. BS if you are mafia just give up rather than making us draw out the whole process of another night.

destinycall wrote:I'm sad.

I liked my "Dragonfire was evil all along!!!!" theory. It was such a good theory.

It was a decent theory, I'll give you that, and you put effort into it. But most of the time, Occam's Razor holds true: the simplest explanation is probably the correct one.

Once Cheddar has checked in to confirm the roleblock on me, we should just quicklynch Vanquisher to end the game as soon as possible. If for some reason he flips town, BS can be roleblocked and lynched tomorrow, so it's autowin for us now.

destinycall wrote:I was also expecting to wake up dead today.

Not complaining. Just surprised.

Yeah, so was I. Tbh I hoped they'd kill Cyantic out of the PRs since there was a slight chance they could be mafia and the RT a citizen (very unlikely, but still slight). Their death has now locked the game in autowin.

I was roleblocked. I'm now confirmed Town.


/vote Vanquisher

Read my ISO for the case on him, plus frop's posts basically confirmed him as scum.

Good game, everyone.

Number Crunch Time!

7 alive - 5 v 1 v 1

Scenario 1: We lynch frop, he flips Arsonist. 5 v 1. I'm blocked tonight and confirmed town, Mafia kills, 4 v 1 with a lynch pool of (BS, Vanq). We mislynch - 3 v 1 and mafia kills again - 2 v 1 - we win. Autowin in this scenario.

Scenario 2: We lynch frop, he flips Arsonist. 5 v 1. I'm blocked tonight and mafia no-kills, I'm lynched tomorrow, 4 v 1 with a lynch pool of (BS, Vanq) - blocking one confirms the other as scum and if mafia continues to no-kill they'll easily lose. Autowin.

A doctor save on anyone in either scenario is a bonus as it confirms the roleblocked person as Town as well.

Tl;dr - destiny's plan is autowin as long as frop is Arsonist. I don't see why the Arsonist wouldn't douse or ignite last night so unless Cyan is doused then it's basically autowin.

Screw it, time for a quintuple post

This is what I came up with last night after going through Jae and M4x's ISOs.

1) M4x's LO hypoclaim was correct, but he can't have known it was frop who did the visiting as he was a BM'er not an Agent. Therefore the third Mafia member must be an Agent who followed frop on N1, unless of course it was just a coincidence

2) While it's likely the Jae roleblock is what stopped the kill on N2, there's a possibility that mafia hit the Arso. In that case, frop is probably the Arso (this is now validated today, so it's irrelevant)

3) Jae was pushing that Random Town rolled Citizen and so doubtcasting on the PR claims (ie. he was suggesting that there was a significant possibility that there were two scum in the PR pool). Why would he do this? Answer - both mafia claimed Citizen and he was trying to cover their claims.

4) Therefore from my PoV either Vanq or BS is mafia. Vanq being mafia is much more likely given yesterday's voting patterns (BS's vote was on Jae for most of the day; Vanq was pushing for a frop lynch and only switched to Jae at the last minute). Also Vanq's D2 read on Jae is slightly suspicious given Jae's slot's track record in the game at that point.

** I know a lot of this can be applied to me too, but this was written/formulated before the events of this morning.

You've got a few holes in your reasoning, destiny (apart from thinking that I'm mafia!)

destinycall wrote:Frop418 figured out that Jaegy's slot was Blackmailer/Agent based on Maxwell's hypoclaims on D2, NOT because of a Sheriff check. In hindsight, it is pretty obvious. If frop418 was Sheriff, he would have NO reason to Sherif check Tardis on N1. Tardis soft-claimed Bodyguard on D1. He was unlikely to be Mafia. He was a very stupid choice for an experienced Sheriff. But he was a very GOOD choice for an experienced Arsonist. Frop418 doused Tardis on N1 so that he could take out the Bodyguard later on. He didn't expect him to die. Meanwhile, Maxwell the Blackmailer watched Tardis to see if anyone visited him, hoping to catch either a town PR or the Arsonist. Maxwell's Lookout hypoclaim was most likely truthful in order to give him the freedom to claim Lookout later in the game. Frop418 suspected that he was observed by Mafia/Town, so he had to hypoclaim Sheriff results to cover himself. His late reveal was suspicious, as was his concern that we might "immediately lynch xUltiix". This was a weird concern for someone who should have been questioning the validity of xUltiix's Sheriff claim more than the average Town player.

Blackmailer is not a Mafia Lookout, they only see what roles visit. So if Jae watched tardis he would either see a Sheriff or an Arsonist visit.

I had Dragon heavily Townread on D1 and I still considered him a strong Townread on D2, although he was less active. He was still making good proTown posts and only had a few suspicious interactions with Jaegybomb. I found it a little odd when he jumped the queue to claim Citizen early on in the mass claim, but still not that suspicious. On D3, something was clearly wrong. He voted for Jaegy early on and didn't seem to want to move his vote. He offered no convincing counterarguments for why Jaegybomb made for the better lynch target and agreed with my reasoning ... yet continued to vote for Jaegy. He offered theories that didn't quite make sense or match up with the facts that we knew. And he didn't offer plans or suggest roleblock targets, even though he agreed that we should discuss them. He wasn't working with Town anymore. Also, he seemed to be aware that there was no Mafioso in play, long before that was confirmed by Jaegybomb's flip.

I didn't offer plans or suggest roleblock targets because I wasn't online when the lynch choice was finalised. As for the lynch candidates, I had a strong feeling that Jae was scum despite the logic supporting a frop lynch and regardless of frop's alignment. My vote was ultimately dictated by my gut and reads. I agree that the theory that Cheddar is scum was far-fetched, but sometimes far-fetched theories can win the game. Also, the thing about the Mafioso is taken out of context, I said on D2 that there was no Mafioso if there was a Consort....

destinycall wrote:Alright, here's my recommendation for a night plan.

We lynch frop418 today.

If he flips Arsonist, as I expect, Cheddar blocks Dargonfire to prevent Mafia kill. Tomorrow, we lynch based on whether or not Mafia was able to attack with Dragon blocked.

If he flips Sheriff, Cheddar blocks Cyantic who must not be Doctor. I don't anticipate this outcome, but it is a good idea to have a backup plan.


@melanora - I know you do not allow voting for plans. But can we do a night skip? I'm pretty sure we have this game pretty much wrapped.

/vote Frop418

I support this plan.

Cyan's the only one who hasn't checked in and if he's not been doused then we lynch frop today since he's basically confirmed Arso at this point. Block me to prove my innocence and then lynch in BS / Vanq tomorrow.

I read through interactions with Jae following the scum flip yesterday and I'm pretty sure Vanquisher is the last mafia. Will post my reasoning when I've gone through my notes.

frop's probably Arso unless someone claims doused. Don't think Arso would pass up the opportunity to ignite last night.

Rolelist:

Town Investigative - Ultii
Town Protective - tardis
Random Town - destiny
Random Town - Cheddar
Random Town - frop / Cyan
Citizen - Olly
Citizen - Exceen
Citizen - Eyes
Citizen - Dragon / BS / Vanq
Citizen - Dragon / BS / Vanq

Mafia Tactical - Jaegy
Mafia Support - Consig/Agent - Cyan / Dragon / BS / Vanq
Random Mafia - Wabbit

Arsonist - frop / Cyan / Dragon / BS / Vanq

I slept peacefully. Since there was a roleblock and a mafia kill, Cheddar is confirmed Town and frop confirmed not Mafia.

Will address people's concerns as soon as I've got a bit more time.

The thing is though, if we assume that Cheddar is mafia, then mafia's highest priority right now is killing the arsonist, since mafia is doused. If Cheddar is mafia, then they must have attacked the Arsonist last night, so they already know who it is. Which means they'd be pushing for its lynch right now...

destinycall wrote:Dragon - who do you think is scum among our PR claims? If you think frop418 might not be town, why trust his "sheriff" result?

I honestly don't know who is scum between the PRs, which is why I'm voting Jaegy.

Vanquisher101 wrote:I disagree with lynching mafia being our main priority. If we let the arsonist live he has to ignite for him to have a better chance at winning which would leave us in a worse position. It is better to get rid of a scum faction fully(that is the arsonist) so that we do not have to worry about 2 scum teams.

Yes but what are the chances frop is Arsonist? Fairly equal to the chances of you being Arsonist, I think.

Cyantic wrote:

BS4125 wrote:

destinycall wrote:As I've already pointed out, that only makes sense if the roleblock makes Jaegybomb look LESS suspicious.

But it doesn't.

Because the Mafia failed in killing someone because they accidentally attacked the Arsonist
That's why Jaegy looks suspicious

if cheddar is the consort (why are we even spending time on this? does anyone think that cheddar is really consort?), claiming that jaegy was rbed in mafia is silly because he wouldn't be under any attention anyway until he announced he was rbed

Hang on a minute. Cheddar only claimed that Jae was roleblocked AFTER frop revealed his result. It is possible that they decided to bus Jaegy to give Cheddar towncred when he was going down anyway.

BS4125 wrote:Tbh there's no difference in lynching the Arsonist or a Mafia member since the Mafia can attack in either scenarios (Jaegy is likely the Mafia who is going to get roleblocked which means the other Mafia member will kill in the Arsonist lynch scenario)

But, killing Mafia should be first priority since Cheddar is possible Mafia and Arsonist has Cheddar doused so the Arsonist isn't going to ignite sooner or later

That's where you're wrong, the Arsonist will definitely ignite tonight since Escort/Consort is the biggest threat to it.

frop418 wrote:Sorry I had a basketball last night, won by 2. Anyways idk how I can deffend myself anymore. I told you my reads and everything lines up. Let's do something, how about we lynch Jaegy and I get roleblocked. At this point arso can't afford to not douse. So I can prove to you guys that I am actually sheriff when you see that someone is doused.

I'm really not liking Jaegy rn, so I can get behind this. I'm probably going to end up switching to you if the lynch goes that way, but I'm fairly confident in scum!Jaegy, regardless of your alignment.

/vote Jaegy

destinycall wrote:

Dragonfire77111 wrote:That's exactly the problem though... right, I'm seriously considering that frop and Cyan are both town, and that the mafia team is Cheddar/Jaegy like BS said. If that's the case then they probably roleblocked Ultii and hit the Arsonist, and are hoping to pull off a town lynch today. The plan probably was for Jaegy to claim RB'd and thus be free of suspicion of being the mafia killer / arsonist, but it backfired when their kill failed. How about that?

I don't think that plan quite makes sense, chronologically. If Cheddar roleblocked xUltiix, why would Jaegybomb plan to claim that he was roleblocked? If xUltiix was still alive, that would mean they BOTH would claim roleblocked and we would know that there was a falseclaim. It would lead right back to Cheddar and Jaegy when xUltiix flipped green. In order for this plan to work, xUltiix has to be dead in the morning and, if they expected him to die, why roleblock him?

Alternatively, if Cheddar actually blocked xUltiix last night and came up with the idea of claiming that he blocked Jaegy in the morning, they would both be aware that their night kill failed. It would make more sense to stick with the truth, rather than intentionally set out to frame an actual Mafia member.

Likewise, if Jaegy was Town and didn't get roleblocked last night, I'm sure he would have said something by now.

The only reason I can see for him to go along with the lie as a non-mafia role is if he actually is the Arsonist but at that point we are deep into tin foil hat territory.

Yeah I guess. The second paragraph was what I was trying to say, but I guess that doesn't make sense now :/

frop, you're at L-2. Please give a reads list / defense if you can?

That's exactly the problem though... right, I'm seriously considering that frop and Cyan are both town, and that the mafia team is Cheddar/Jaegy like BS said. If that's the case then they probably roleblocked Ultii and hit the Arsonist, and are hoping to pull off a town lynch today. The plan probably was for Jaegy to claim RB'd and thus be free of suspicion of being the mafia killer / arsonist, but it backfired when their kill failed. How about that?

Cyantic wrote:

Dragonfire77111 wrote:

Cyantic wrote:framer > agent

although agent hasn't been as bad due to some editing

it's 'technically' possible but that's kind of an affront to my intelligence isn't it

No, I think if you're Arsonist then you probably made a mistake (ie. backed yourself into a corner) when trying to get towncred by townhunting and making night plans, and are trying to cover that up by saying that you'd have to be gamethrowing or stupid to be Arsonist. However, I doubt it so w/e.

Also how does Framer > Agent? Framer is literally the worst Mafia role either on FM or ToS and I've never seen a FM game in which they successfully framed someone and got a mislynch based off that (I was GF in a game where we puppeted the framer to frame someone and they were checked by an Investigator but then the framer was lynched the next day so the results were discounted).

framer is important for securit purposes - get the knowledge out that there is in fact a framer and you're solid. does much more then agent or consig in any case

also saying that it was a 'mistake' by confirming the escort if i was scum is something that would be nigh impossible

The problem is that it's all WIFOM - you're experienced, who knows how far you'd go to fake towncred? Also, you didn't 'confirm' him, I think you're overplaying your role in making Cheddar look town. I gave some reasons in D2 for town!Cheddar and so did others; basically everyone (except Ultii, but he's dead now....) thought he was town. So in actuality you only added to a townread on him.

Cyantic wrote:framer > agent

although agent hasn't been as bad due to some editing

it's 'technically' possible but that's kind of an affront to my intelligence isn't it

No, I think if you're Arsonist then you probably made a mistake (ie. backed yourself into a corner) when trying to get towncred by townhunting and making night plans, and are trying to cover that up by saying that you'd have to be gamethrowing or stupid to be Arsonist. However, I doubt it so w/e.

Also how does Framer > Agent? Framer is literally the worst Mafia role either on FM or ToS and I've never seen a FM game in which they successfully framed someone and got a mislynch based off that (I was GF in a game where we puppeted the framer to frame someone and they were checked by an Investigator but then the framer was lynched the next day so the results were discounted).

**Also, Agent is a valuable role for mafia. IMO the "bad" roles to have are Framer and Blackmailer. That said, I've only been mafia once in a game with standard roles, so I'm not sure exactly how much I can vouch for them.

Cyantic wrote:>agent
>valuable

???

in other news i'm still really confused why we're writing walls based on arso!Cy when the only scum role i can be is maf!Cy

Technically you can still be the Arsonist, and so we have to consider that possibility. Personally I see you as town over frop, but it puzzles me why frop would claim a red result as scum in this situation.

If frop is mafia then he's probably Agent or Consig, which means his role would be valuable to the mafia - so the Mafioso/Blackmailer would carry out the kill.

destinycall wrote: If frop418 is mafia, then they would not attack xUltiix because it would expose their fake Sherrif. However, they might attack Cyantic to eliminate the Doctor. If Cyantic or Cheddar are mafia, the Mafia would probably attack one of the Sheriffs to eliminate a check, especially if he was the Sheriff who was checking the RIGHT pool of Citizen claims. In either case, the PR who was attacked by mafia may have turned out to be Arsonist. Alternatively, Mafia may have gone for someone in the Citizen pool, probably a Townread player, and hit the Arsonist instead. However, with the fear of Lookout/Bodyguard removed by the massclaim, I don't see why they would hit a Citzen over going for a dangerous PR like Doctor or Sheriff. So this seems less likely to me, if Mafia is split between the two pools.

Actually, this makes sense. As I said before, I was expecting to be killed last night, as I figured that a Mafia team with one member in the PRs and one in the Cits would target a highly townread Cit, and I thought I would be the obvious target. I completely forgot about Eyes though - he's actually a much likelier target as he, unlike me, is confirmed to be non-Mafia and so is the most verifiable of the Cit claims. So I think that given my hypothesis of one mafia in the PRs and the other in the Cits, if Jaegy isn't mafia then they probably attacked Arsonist!Eyes.

That said though, it's likely that a Mafia team who attacked the Arsonist would try and cast some degree of suspicion on them, particularly if one of the lynch candidates was mafia. Which hasn't happened for Eyes, but has for frop, who people are accusing of being the Arso...

** Also destiny, I think if either frop or Cyantic is mafia, the obvious kill choice would be a Citizen, as to each of them, the other is the most mislynchable PR, so they would want to keep the other alive.

destinycall wrote:That depends on a few things - like who we lynch and what they end up flipping.
Right now, we have a Sheriff claim who says that one of our Citizen claims came up as Mafia. The chance of Scum in our PR/Citizen pools are about equal. If the Sheriff is telling the truth, lynching Jaegy will kill one member of the Mafia. Unfortunately, that will not reduce the number of night kills unless we can identify and block either the other member of the Mafia or the Arsonist. At this point, Cheddar should probably block Cyantic, under the assumption that frop418 is a legit Sheriff and therefore the Doctor claim must be false. With luck, Cyantic will be the Arsonist and Cheddar will survive the night. If not, he should at least prevent the Mafia kill from going forward.

There is quite a considerable chance that frop is Arso and Jaegy is mafia. After all, guessing from the non-Mafia Cit pool has a 50% chance of hitting scum.

destinycall wrote: Alternatively, we could test the Sheriff claim by lynching frop418. If he is a real Sheriff, then we know that Jaegy is Mafia AND we know that one of our other PRs must be Scum. In this case, Cheddar should block Cyantic, because if Cheddar is Escort and frop418 is Sheriff then Cyantic CAN'T be Doctor. Hopefully, Cyantic will be the Arsonist and that will prevent another night kill. If he is Mafia, then we know both members of the Mafia but we are cutting it really close due to the mislynch and second night kill.

The problem is that I don't think Cyantic's behaviour today indicates a Mafia perspective. That's why I'm worried, because tbh I do kinda believe frop's claim despite his scumminess and the other PR claims all seem legit.

destinycall wrote: We really can't afford another mislynch at this point in the game, since we are dangerously close to losing majority. Personally, I like the idea of lynching the Sheriff because it lets us clean house on our PRs and gives us the best chance of stopping the Arsonist. Since Jaegy CAN'T be Arsonist but frop418 or Cyantic might be Arsonist/Mafia. Lynching a Citizen doesn't accomplish the same thing for our Citizen pool because it is too big. I don't like relying on a Red result from a sketchy Sheriff when we know that we have too many PR claimants and the Sheriff is the most suspicious one.

Yeah, I can see your logic. I might well end up voting frop today.

destinycall wrote: Also, most of these plans depend on the idea that Cheddar is Escort, rather than Consort. Although, since he is doused, he has a personal stake in locating the Arsonist. If he fails to stop the Arsonist, his flip will confirm his role soon enough. If we have two Scum in our PRs, we are in a lot of trouble, but I'm hoping we just have one bad PR and the rest of the Scum are hiding among the Citizens.

Yeah. Even if he is Consort it's in his interests to roleblock the Arsonist so I'm sure he'll comply.

Yeah true, but he's the kind of person who'd put himself above the game, so as to speak. So it's very plausible that he went through with it and saved himself.

Went over Vanquisher's (and Silent's) ISOs to try and find some associations, but once again nothing's jumping out at me. I must say though, the comment on BS4125 viewed on its own makes it unlikely they're a scumteam, but having read his ISO it seems more plausible.

- Silent really only mentions BS. He votes him in RVS, then agrees with and compliments him on several of his posts (he also scumreads Wild). When Vanq replaces in, he lists BS as null, right in the middle of his reads list, but then says this:

To be honest I would wait for cyantic to claim his role. If he is sheriff then exceen is the lynch candidate. If not I would suggest BS1424.(sorry If I got your numbers wrong.

If you look at his reads list though, he lists frop, Cheddar and Ultii as slight scum and BS as null, so this sudden switch to BS seems off. He never mentions BS again, and later guesses that frop, Cheddar and Exceen are the scumteam (which could be a 'fake townslip'). Later he goes back on the above post and votes Exceen although Cy claimed Doctor, saying he always planned to lynch the Cit claim out of Raven/Exceen. Vanquisher also lists Jaegy as town in his reads list when he really hadn't done anything to merit it, and lists most of the PR claims as scum.

Tl;dr - Vanq/BS scumteam is possible (but that would make frop the Arso and Jaegy town), Vanq/Jaegy scumteam is also a possibility.

My ideas on a plan:

1) Lynch Jaegy

2) If Jaegy flips Town, Cheddar roleblocks frop (or the top Arso suspect if he thinks frop is Mafia instead). Cyan protects destiny.

3) If Jaegy flips Mafia, Cheddar roleblocks his top Arso suspect (most likely Cyan or Vanq). Cyan protects destiny if he isn't RB'd.

4) If Jaegy flips Arsonist, Cheddar roleblocks frop and Cyan protects either Cheddar or destiny.

Also Cy, I'm fairly certain Wildraven stated that he self-healed on N1, which doesn't match up with you saying he healed M4xwell.