VFM 37|The Neighbourhood| Game Over-Mafia Wins

[kosmo16]

if games had no day phases, yes, you right

It's Math. I believe it is valid if all players have equal skill.

not really, it's valid, if lynches are random, so no day phases. In equal skill games town have upper hand

Oh, really? How so?

These winrates are valid when both factions play optimally.

[Eragon1329]

Optimally /=/ RNG

optimally = town lynching scum D1 and D2, which is unlikely

And

Optimally = scum getting mislynches every day until the win, exactly like what happened here, but that was based on human fallacy

[kosmo16]

Optimally /=/ RNG

optimally = town lynching scum D1 and D2, which is unlikely

And

Optimally = scum getting mislynches every day until the win, exactly like what happened here, but that was based on human fallacy

both factions play optimally, not a single one. In vanilla optimal play for town is random lynching. And for Mafia to play as they don't know they are Mafia.

[Eragon1329]

And neither of those could ever happen


So I don’t see how those winrates should have any effect?


If optimal play is random lynching then town is bad

And if optimal play is to not play as mafia..?.?.??. I mean you can’t realky do that


If that’s seriously what your basing your “factual winrates” off of, I recommend checking for more normal winrates

[RAmcius]

if games had no day phases, yes, you right

It's Math. I believe it is valid if all players have equal skill.

not really, it's valid, if lynches are random, so no day phases. In equal skill games town have upper hand

Oh, really? How so?

simple, faking town is harder than being town, on top of that you must be better town than bunch of other towns

as for optimal play - scum can't win, if town play optimal, whole scum wincon is based on town making bunch of mistakes - lynching their own. Also, you haven't seen actually good players, if you think you can't have actual reads in mountainous and have to resolve to random lynching

[kosmo16]

if games had no day phases, yes, you right

It's Math. I believe it is valid if all players have equal skill.

not really, it's valid, if lynches are random, so no day phases. In equal skill games town have upper hand

Oh, really? How so?

simple, faking town is harder than being town, on top of that you must be better town than bunch of other towns

as for optimal play - scum can't win, if town play optimal, whole scum wincon is based on town making bunch of mistakes - lynching their own. Also, you haven't seen actually good players, if you think you can't have actual reads in mountainous and have to resolve to random lynching

I am not saying that if you have good villagers and bad scums playing 1000 games, you will have in this setup around 350 town wins. You will most likely have 500 or more. I am talking about situation when scums manipulation skill is equal to villagers investigative skill, then we can use random lynching to estimate win ratio.

I want to ask about this game. Do you think this game was balanced? EV for Town was 35.21%.

[RAmcius]

if games had no day phases, yes, you right

It's Math. I believe it is valid if all players have equal skill.

not really, it's valid, if lynches are random, so no day phases. In equal skill games town have upper hand

Oh, really? How so?

simple, faking town is harder than being town, on top of that you must be better town than bunch of other towns

as for optimal play - scum can't win, if town play optimal, whole scum wincon is based on town making bunch of mistakes - lynching their own. Also, you haven't seen actually good players, if you think you can't have actual reads in mountainous and have to resolve to random lynching

I am not saying that if you have good villagers and bad scums playing 1000 games, you will have in this setup around 350 town wins. You will most likely have 500 or more. I am talking about situation when scums manipulation skill is equal to villagers investigative skill, then we can use random lynching to estimate win ratio.

I want to ask about this game. Do you think this game was balanced? EV for Town was 35.21%.

no, mountainous isn't balanced by it's nature, adding neighbourhoods just made it more scumsided - it's easier to pocket town in them

[kosmo16]

So you agree that game would be better if there couldn't be 2 scums in the same neighbourhood?

[RAmcius]

So you agree that game would be better if there couldn't be 2 scums in the same neighbourhood?

no, i don't think game being townsided would be better

[kosmo16]

So you agree that game would be better if there couldn't be 2 scums in the same neighbourhood?

no, i don't think game being townsided would be better

I don't agree game would become townsided because of that change. EV would be still below 50%.

[RAmcius]

So you agree that game would be better if there couldn't be 2 scums in the same neighbourhood?

no, i don't think game being townsided would be better

I don't agree game would become townsided because of that change. EV would be still below 50%.

If you want change something, come up with some mechanic that helps town from start, adding very swingy mechanics isn't healthy for a game, especially with one-sided swings

[kosmo16]

So you agree that game would be better if there couldn't be 2 scums in the same neighbourhood?

no, i don't think game being townsided would be better

I don't agree game would become townsided because of that change. EV would be still below 50%.

If you want change something, come up with some mechanic that helps town from start, adding very swingy mechanics isn't healthy for a game, especially with one-sided swings

66% instead of 59% it is not a swingy mechanic and would balance game.

[RAmcius]

So you agree that game would be better if there couldn't be 2 scums in the same neighbourhood?

no, i don't think game being townsided would be better

I don't agree game would become townsided because of that change. EV would be still below 50%.

If you want change something, come up with some mechanic that helps town from start, adding very swingy mechanics isn't healthy for a game, especially with one-sided swings

66% instead of 59% it is not a swingy mechanic and would balance game.

you realize that swingy mechanic takes effect only in some games, right? Some games will be ok, while others turn in shitshow after first scum lynch

[greenrabbit7]

yay i won by doing absolutely nothing